A 20-1 tip for the Betfair Exchange Stayers Handicap Hurdle

Bookmakers generally run for cover when it comes to British raiders trained by Emmet Mullins and this Saturday is no different with the layers all keen to swerve Slate Lane in the Betfair Exchange Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock Park.

The five-year-old was beaten an aggregate of 157 lengths in three starts for Paul Hennessy at the start of the year but has looked a different horse since moving to Mullins, chalking up successive low-key wins at Cartmel, Bangor and Newton Abbot with stacks in hand at prohibitive prices.

He beat next to nothing in his first two starts for Mullins but there was more substance to his latest success when brushing aside a decent yardstick in Tommie Beau, who was well-in relative to his chase rating and has since chalked up two more wins back over the larger obstacles.

Slate Lane has been hit with a 14lb rise for his latest success and, having initially been rated 103, now finds himself off a mark of 127. However, he started life in handicaps off such a humble rating that most of his rivals on Saturday are still going to have to concede weight to him.

It's difficult to gauge exactly where this unexposed stayer might end up, but this will easily be the deepest race he has contested and, if it were not for the fact he was trained by Mullins, I’m sure he’d be trading at much bigger odds. He’s 11/4 across the board, and at those odds I’m more than happy to let him slide.

It could pay to focus on the 2m 4f handicap hurdle run at Aintree at the end of last month. Paisley Park won the 2018 edition before going on to win at Haydock and the latest running again looks a pivotal piece of the jigsaw, albeit several flights of hurdles were missed out because of low sun.

Crambo, trained by Fergal O’Brien, took the spoils with something to spare, confirming himself as an upwardly mobile six-year-old. His exploits last season included a tenacious victory in the valuable EBF Final at Sandown and his only defeats have come in Grade One company – when apparently having a wind issue on the first occasion, and when badly hampered at the Grand National meeting on the second.

He's gone up another 6lb for his Aintree success but Connor Brace nursed him home under sympathetic handling and I fancy he’s still well-handicapped. He seems to act on any ground and the O’Brien camp have been keeping 3m up their sleeves – he seems sure to relish it - so his chance is there for all to see. But he's not been missed in the market, with the sponsors going 5/2.

There’s a lot to like about him but, at the odds on offer, even more to admire about another six-year-old improver in SANTOS BLUE, who chased him home at Aintree and is a general 20/1.

He was probably a bit flattered to get within 2¼ lengths of Crambo, but Ben Sutton, son of owner Nick, dropping his whip in the closing stages certainly didn’t help his cause. Throw in the fact that he could be 6lb better off and is already proven over 3m – he was a close third to Broadway Boy over the trip at Cheltenham in the spring when given plenty to do – and the massive gulf in prices becomes even more bewildering.

Sutton, an amateur who claims 7lb, seems sure to keep the ride given the family connection. The past three editions of the race have been won by a claimer, although the weights are probably going to have to rise if Sutton is to make full use of his.

Santos Blue will carry 10st 5lb if last year’s winner, Botox Has, stands his ground. Whether Sutton can get near 9st 12lb is doubtful – his lowest riding weight in the past year is recorded at 10st 4lb – but that’s just something we may have to live with. Connections have the option of switching to Harry Skelton or Bridget Andrews, and the latter has ridden Santos Blue twice in the past.

The other trio on my shortlist are Emitom, Howlingmadmurdoch and Lord Snooty.

Emitom was capable of mixing it with the best stayers around as a younger horse and seems to have been revived by Alan King. He’s 3lb well-in after his solid second on his return at Newbury and, while this race is generally won by younger legs, he has each-way scope at the 16/1 available.

The stamina-bred Howlingmadmurdoch progressed well as a novice and signed off with a good fifth at Aintree. The general 14/1 chance is the type to do better again this term but he lacks a recent run and you have to go back to 2015 to find the last winner of this race to win it first time up.

Lord Snooty is a strong stayer who was running a big race behind Buddy One at Galway last time, only to blunder away his chance three out. The winner did his bit for the form at Cheltenham last Saturday but, as things stand, Lord Snooty is languishing 3lb out of the handicap. Bet365 make him 20/1.

How To Bet £20 ante-post on the Betfair Exchange Stayers Handicap Hurdle:

£6 win plus £7 each-way on Santos Blue at a general 20-1. (four places)