Winless Ones To Watch part four: Henderson has high hopes for this youngster

Trainer: . 

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles and further.

A horse we only saw once under rules last season, but I think he will develop into a very useful novice hurdler over intermediate trips and beyond. 

2nd in his sole Irish Point-to-Point start in December 2023, he was odds on for that race indicating that hopes were high. While he couldn’t get his head in front, he ran a race full of promise in the pouring rain; the eventual winner, Going Live, had an experience edge and made all of the running, with Califet En Vol the only runner to get close to him. Going Live sold for £150,000, is now with Gordon Elliott and won on his hurdling debut while the distant third, Kilmore Rock, also won on hurdling debut.  

Califet En Vol sold for £145,000 at the Tatts Cheltenham Sale in December, moving to Nicky Henderson to begin his rules career. Given the timing of the sale, it wasn’t surprising that we had to wait until the end of the season to see him makes his stable debut, which came at Ayr in the bumper on Scottish National day.  

It’s traditionally a strong race, and one that both Nicky Henderson and the McNeill family have run some smart types in: the trainer won it with Pym & William Henry, while the owners have had Masaccio & Senior Citizen go close.  

It looked a good renewal on paper, with top yards represented, and Califet En Vol ran with plenty of credit to finish third, beaten just under five-lengths by the promising Gordon Elliott trained, Jazz De Cotte. Closer to last than first upon turning for home, he kept responding to Nico De Boinville’s urgings, lacking the finishing burst of the winner but finding plenty under pressure. 

By Califet, his dam won over three-miles and he is from the family of the smart staying hurdler, Pike’s Peak, trained by Nicky Henderson in the 1980’s. His pedigree, combined with what we saw from his point-to-point and his bumper, suggests he has the potential to make up into a smart stayer in his own right. While Nicky Henderson’s hurdling debutants often go off a short price, he has a remarkable 30% strike-rate with such types since 2003, and have still been profitable to back blind despite their typically prohibitive odds.  

Trainer: Willie Mullins. 

Conditions: Novice/Handicap Hurdles over two-miles on good ground. 

It’s not easy to get a Willie Mullins horse on this list, such is his habit of winning, but Ethical Diamond is a rare exception. 

And yet going into last season, there was a lot of talk about him being a live Triumph Hurdle contender; purchased for 320,000gns after an impressive victory in a maiden on the flat. Described as “a gorgeous horse” that would hopefully be one to take them to Cheltenham and Royal Ascot. He duly did just that but Willie also called him “a backward type” that “will improve a lot”.  

His hurdling debut came at Leopardstown over Christmas; sent off the 6/5 favourite, conditions were gruelling and he was looked after having raced keenly. Expectations were seemingly not dampened, as his next assignment came in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival where he put in a much-improved performance to finish sixth, only beaten five-lengths having come from off the pace. Kargese and Majborough would frank that form at Cheltenham. 

Speaking of Cheltenham, Ethical Diamond was tipped by many as a live outsider heading into the Triumph, but the ground turned heavy and he is undoubtedly a horse that prefers a sounder surface. He would prove that to be the case in his two subsequent flat runs, finishing a close second on handicap debut to a subsequent winner before a respectable fourth at Royal Ascot, where he paid for being too keen and racing wide throughout. 

Ethical Diamond retains his novice status for this season which opens up a world of possibilities. A Maiden Hurdle should prove a formality on good ground, and I suspect he will be campaigned in Graded company thereafter. However, I can’t help but feel that a race like the County Hurdle could prove an ideal long-term target: connections won it with Absurde last year, and while I don’t think Ethical Diamond will be one of Willie’s top novice hurdlers, it’s not difficult to envisage him replicating Absurde.  

Salvator Mundi would be another in this category but given he’s already as short as 14/1 for the Supreme having bolted up in a Maiden Hurdle in May, he only gets a cursory mention as this column is intended to look beyond the obvious.  

Trainer: Harry Fry. 

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two miles.

Kap Ouest featured in plenty of trackers heading into last season, despite being unraced, due largely to Racing TV’s Mark Howard naming him as a “Top 40 prospect” in his excellent “One Jump Ahead” publication. 

We didn’t have long to wait to see the well-bred son of Kapgarde, as he made his racecourse debut at Chepstow in October. Notably weak in the betting, drifting to 12/1, he ran a race full or promise to finish a clear third having come from off the pace while the front two were prominent throughout. It’s a race I’m hoping will work out well in the long term, with the likes of Tripoli Flyer (fifth) and Dartmoor Pirate (seventh) already giving it a boost. 

It would be over six-months till we would see Kap Ouest again, and he would reappear over hurdles sporting a first-time hood. Again, he was incredibly weak in the market, drifting from 7/2 out to 8/1 – the signs were ominous for his backers. For a Maiden Hurdle in May, it was a decent race: the winner was fourth in the Aintree Grade 2 bumper on his previous start and won under a penalty thereafter, while the third looked promising having bolted up in a bumper when last seen. Kap Ouest finished a good second and, in truth, nothing went right for him. An early faller led to a loose horse causing chaos upfront, which subsequently led to a slow pace as none of the riders wanted to chance going alongside the wayward jumping loose horse. Kap Ouest was keen throughout and forced wide with little cover, so this is a run that can be marked up. Keep an eye on the winner, Valgrand, as he looks very well handicapped off 118. 

Given we only saw him twice and at large intervals, it’s likely he had a setback which also explains his market weakness last time out. He did look a work in progress, so time can only be his friend and he should have plenty of scope to progress.  

Trainer: Laura Morgan.

Conditions: Handicap Chases over two-and-a-half-miles and further.

Laura Morgan has built a good operation at the family home of Foxfield Stud over the past few years, and the yard had performed consistently well in previous seasons, averaging a 17% strike-rate (A/E 1.05) & 33 winners across the 2020/21, 2021/22 to 2022/23 seasons. 

Last season, however, was a difficult one, marred by the tragic loss of Notlongtillmay. On top of that, the yard weren’t firing as they had been in previous seasons: 12 winners and just a 7% strike-rate, which is a notable drop-off.  

There’s every reason to expect a reversion to the mean, and they may well have some well-handicapped horses this season. 

Step forward, . Third to a couple of smart types in two Irish Point-to-Points in 2022 (Ballyburn & Southoftheborder), he got off the mark at the third time of asking in April 2023 before selling for £60,000. 

He made an encouraging rules debut behind Cherie D’am (rated 131, third in the Sefton) before unseating at Cheltenham less than two weeks later, which was an overly ambitious bit of placing. Next seen at Sedgefield, he was sent off the 9/4 favourite but could only manage second, headed after the last having drifted across the track. It looks a solid if unexceptional piece of form: he was giving three-pounds to the winner, who had run well behind some smart types in Act of Authority & Cannock Park and is now rated 117, and ten-pounds to the third who is now rated 110. This makes Wild Side of Life’s mark of 111 look potentially exploitable. 

His last run is one to forgive: running in a three-mile handicap hurdle on very deep ground, carrying over twelve-stone after 100-days off the track, he understandably got tired late on. 

There should be more to come, particularly over fences considering his pointing experience, the style in which he jumped hurdles and pedigree: his dam won over fences and she is related to multiple chase winners, and his half-brother won on his Point-to-Point debut and has since finished second at the Punchestown Festival. 

Laura Morgan tends to excel with her chasers: her 18% strike-rate with runners over fences far exceeds her strike-rate with hurdles (8%). Something to note with a view to handicap chases: her strike-rate with handicap chase debutants is 13%, increasing to 18% and 36% on their second and third handicap chase start. 

Trainer: David Pipe.

Conditions: Handicap Chases over two-and-a-half miles and further. 

The lowest-rated horse to feature on this list, Vision De Maine will begin the season from a mark of 89 - which I hope can be exploited, particularly over fences. 

An impressive winner of a small field Irish Point-to-Point on firm ground (although I confess that the form hasn’t worked out well), he was purchased for £95,000 at the 2023 Tatts Cheltenham Festival sale and now runs in the colours of Professor Caroline Tisdall.  

His rules debut was an encouraging one; not without market support, he finished second in a Sedgefield bumper which was well above the average standard for a race of that nature. He was no match for Brechin Castle, one of the top British bumper horses last season, but finished a respectable second and the third went on to win his next two starts over hurdles. 

His hurdling debut was not so convincing, although it came on bottomless ground at Chepstow over two-and-a-half miles which looked to be too demanding at that stage of his career. While he was beaten a combined fifty-four lengths on his next two starts, which were both over two-miles, there were more encouraging signs and I suspect his run in April (after nearly three-months off the track) was to ensure he had a handicap mark in preparation for next season. 

By Buck’s Boum, who’s progeny tend to excel over fences, his dam won over fences in France and while she is a half-sister to Group 1 flat horse Vision D’Etat, Vision De Maine looks more about stamina. Given his profile, it would be disappointing if he couldn’t progress beyond his lowly mark of 89. There are definitely risks attached with this selection, but there’s sufficient potential upside to justify his inclusion.