Winless Ones To Watch part three: five horses with bundles of potential

Trainer: Mel Rowley

Conditions: Handicap Chases over three miles.

It’s great that the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings still grace the track; and with young, promising horses like Favour And Fortune, hopefully that will be the case for years to come.

Another young horse in the famous colours is Best Life – and he would be firmly in the category of the embryonic chaser that Mr Hemmings loved so much.

His first couple of starts were not much to shout about; beaten a combined eighty-one lengths, there was a glimmer of promise but he was clearly a work in progress. His third start was definitely a step in the right direction, however, staying on into third behind a couple of decent types. He was a 150/1 for that particular race, and kept on well to pull clear of the remainder despite never being on terms with the leaders.

Allocated an opening mark of 100, for his handicap debut he was stepped up to three-miles for the first time which looked sure to suit, and put in a career best effort to finish a clear second. He was unfortunate to bump into a clear handicap blip in the form of One Big Bang, who won in novice company on his next start and is now rated eighteen-pounds higher than he was when Best Life ran against him.

Upped four-pounds for that run, which is perhaps a tad on the harsh side, it was confirmation that he is an improving horse and one that will invariably be at his best as a staying chaser; he did win a Point-to-Point (although he was subsequently disqualified for carrying the wrong weight) and he’s a half-brother to the useful stayer Reigning Supreme while his dam is out of a maiden half-sister to Gold Cup winner, Garrison Savannah.

Mel Rowley has a very impressive 21% strike-rate with chasers (A/E 1.28) and she has an archetypal staying chaser on her hands here. From an opening mark of 104, I would hope there is plenty of improvement to come - as does the trainer.

Mel Rowley: “We were very happy with his progression last season, he improved run by run and without a doubt I am sure we will see his best when he goes over a fence, he definitely is the type of horse that the late Trevor Hemmings liked and has 3 mile chaser stamped all over him. His jumping at home has been very impressive, he is very straight forwards and we are excited to see where that may take him. He does prefer a softer surface but I think that as he strengthens more he will find more gears to cope with slightly quicker ground and we definitely feel that he still has a lot of potential to pull at.”

Trainer: Sam Thomas.

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two miles and further.

I’m a big fan of Sam Thomas, who has built a remarkably consistent yard over the past few years, operating at a 21% strike-rate across the last four seasons. The only issue for me is that there often aren’t many potential qualifiers for this list!

It’s likely that only an injury setback stopped Walk In The Hills from registering a win last season, as he clearly has plenty of ability based on what we’ve seen thus far.

He made his debut at Chepstow in October on ground officially described as good to soft – but it looked much harder work than that. Paul Nicholls won the race for the third time in four years; previous winners were Stage Star & Henri The Second, and while this year’s winner, Captain Bellamy, has disappointed since, I would still rate him as a good prospect for the future. Walk In The Hills could only manage second, but it was a promising debut and there were some nice types in behind.

Well backed to win on his next start, again at Chepstow, he could only manage third but the testing conditions didn’t look to suit.

In a stable tour, Sam Thomas was overwhelmingly complimentary: describing him as “ a lovely rangy type (who is) going to be a lovely horse next season”. He also mentioned that he’s one for decent ground as he “is such a good mover”, backing up the idea that the ground was against him on his most recent start.

By Walk In The Park, he’s a half-brother to the high-class Invitation Only and he was purchased for €120,000 as a three-year-old; on paper, there’s a lot to like and he should improve again for hurdling and better ground.

Tout Sur Moi

Trainer : Jane Williams

Conditions : Handicap Chases over intermediate trips

By Manatee, a relatively new sire that Jane Williams has taken an early interest in, Tout Sur Moi has shown flashes of potential – and I hope that his trainer’s traditional patient approach will yield rewards.

He made his debut in a bumper in March 2023, and wasn’t without support, but raced far too keenly and ultimately paid the price. Still, it wasn’t a bad run, and connections clearly thought enough of him to make his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham in October; he could only finish eleventh, but showed up well for a long way before fading having again been keen in the early stages.

Switched to hurdling at the turn of the year, all three runs came over two-miles on sharp tracks (Tanton and Ludlow). In truth, he shaped similarly on all three occasions: often outpaced, he stuck on well under pressure and was staying on at the line. That was notably the case on his most recent run – jumping the last in sixth, the better part of twenty-lengths adrift, he gained three places on the run in to finish third.

With those three runs behind him, he’s now eligible for handicaps and he’ll begin the season on a mark of 106. On what he’s achieved, you can only say that mark is fair at best, but he clearly

has a lot of potential to improve once he’s upped in trip; his dam won over intermediate trips and is a half-sister to a couple of smart types.

Keep an eye out for him on handicap debut over an intermediate trip; connections had a similar type in Pepe Le Moko last season who improved twenty-pounds going up in trip over fences. Chester Williams noted the comparison in terms of on-course profile, although did say that they weren’t particularly similar horses. It remains to be seen whether Tout Sur Moi can be as progressive as Pepe Le Moko.

Chester Williams: “We’re positive about Tout Sur Moi. He’s done nicely enough so far and has progressed with every run. He’s only five still and was a bit of a frame last season but has filled out plenty over the summer. Now he’s got a handicap mark, he will go up in trip as he suggested he wants further and is bred for further. Chasing is the plan as well, as he jumps well and that should bring improvement.

Roaring Home

Trainer: Henry Daly

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over intermediate or staying trips

Henry Daly wouldn’t be known for bumper winners. Of his 11 bumper runners last season, Roaring Home was the only one to manage a place. His strike-rate with fillies/mares in bumpers is 6%, with no winner since 2021; all of which reflects well on the achievements of Roaring Home last season.

Making her debut just after the turn of the year, she was well supported at big odds before the race, shortening from 20/1 into 9/1. Held up, she showed signs of greenness with Richard Patrick having to nudge her into the bridle intermittently. However, she made good progress from off the pace, closing all the way to the line to finish a clear second. The winner and third had winning Point-to-Point experience and a bumper run under their belts, so this was a highly encouraging run.

Boyed by that effort, she was set a tougher task on her next start, running in a Class 2 at Ascot. Held up again, she kept on stoutly to finish a respectable fourth, but couldn’t match the speed of the impressive winner Anno Power, who would win again at Cheltenham’s April meeting next time out.

Her third and final start of the season came at Southwell at May; not normally the type of race you’d look to for horses to keep on side, but this particular contest looks well above average now. Ridden more prominently, she pulled nicely clear with the eventual winner – Gale Mahler, who has won her five subsequent starts. The third, who was six-lengths adrift of the front two, set a good level of form having finished a sixth-length fifth behind Anno Power at Cheltenham in April.

Roaring Home looks a useful hurdling prospect, and she should improve for stepping up in trip; her dam reached a mark of 125 and won over two-miles-and-five-furlongs, and she’s a sister to two other winners over intermediate trips.

Henry Daly’s strike rate with mares in Maiden/Novice hurdlers is 14% (A/E 1.07). Diving into this further, it would appear that they generally improve with experience; on their first or second run

over hurdles, they operate at a 7% strike-rate (A/E 0.79). However, on their third run and beyond, they operate at a 22% strike-rate (A/E 1.23), which is something to keep in mind.

I’m no race planner, but I can envisage her running in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle at Newbury in March. Should this happen by some miracle, you heard it here first!

Chesh

Trainer: Chris Gordon

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-miles and further

Chris Gordon has done remarkably well with relatively low-cost horses in recent seasons. Such success has seen some more expensive recruits enter the yard – and one such horse is Chesh, who was purchased for £140,000 as a three-year-old and races in the colours of long-term yard supporters, Richard and Carol Cheshire.

By Getaway, who I must confess is not my favourite sire, the dam side of his page does contain a rather notable name: Binocular, who is a half-brother to the unraced dam of Chesh. That goes someway to explaining the price tag!

Chris Gordon has stressed on multiple occasions that, despite his good strike-rate in bumpers, that they are not a priority for him, particularly on debut. He has an 8% strike-rate with bumper debutants (A/E 0.76), compared to a 17% strike-rate (A/E 1.16) for his runners with at least one previous start to their name.

Chesh made his racecourse debut in late-February 2024, which was a tad surprising as his trainer had previously stated in stable tour that he was likely to run in April. Despite only coming sixth of nine, he shaped well enough for a long way and, as previously mentioned, Chris Gordon’s record with first time out bumper runners lends itself to the belief that there’s plenty of improvement to come.

Described as “a really big horse” and “a three-miler chaser in a couple of years’ time”, I suspect we’ll see him take a big step forward once sent hurdling and hopefully, given his ordinary bumper form, he can pop up at a big price in a Maiden or Novice Hurdle early in the season.