Winless Ones To Watch part two: five more horses to follow

Trainer: .

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles and further.

Dan Skelton had a few notable bumper horses last season – Royal Infantry and Let It Rain chief amongst them; but with his Tenacious attitude, is one I’m keen to keep onside. 

He made his racecourse debut in a bumper at Exeter, staying on well despite clear signs of greenness to finish a promising third; the front two both had an experience edge and while the winner, Quebecois, was well on top, he was thought good enough to contest the Champion Bumper next time out, so this was a promising start to Jack Black’s career. 

His second bumper start (watch above) resulted in another respectable third-place finish, showing a good level of progression. The front three pulled nicely clear and the form is solid; the winner, Bill Joyce, bolted up on his next start and went off 7/1 for the Champion Bumper, while the second, Clap of Thunder, was in receipt of thirteen-pounds and was subsequently beaten a similar distance in a listed race. 

Not your typical bumper horse on looks or pedigree, it wasn’t surprising to see his third and final start of the season come over hurdles. His debut came over obstacles came in a strong race on paper, but it was run at a slow gallop with the first two being 1-2 throughout. Yet again, Jack Black finished third, doing much the best of those who raced further back under an educational ride.  

He can now embark on a full season of Novice Hurdling, and he should be the type that will improve with time. His dam is a half-sister to Vic De Touzaine, a useful three-mile chaser who reached a mark of 139 – I suspect Jack Black will also end up being a staying chaser, but he’s one to note over hurdles beforehand. He should be more than capable of winning a maiden/novice early on in the season, and it’ll be interesting to see how he progresses.  

Trainer: Paul Nicholls.

Conditions: Handicap Hurdles over intermediate trips.

Another French recruit for Paul Nicholls that plenty was expected from last season. 

He was only purchased at the end of September 2023 and so would not have had much time to acclimatise which leads me to expect (and hope!) that there is more to come from him on these shores. 

A very smart stayer on the flat, he finished second in a Group Three on his final start in France so it was hardly surprising that he was sent off a relatively short price on his hurdling debut. That came at Newbury in late January, a time when the yard are not normally at their peak, but he shaped well for a long way before fading on the long run in, eventually finishing fourth but shaping better than the margin of defeat. 

A non-runner in the Dovecote due to soft ground, he was given a speculative Supreme entry but we would have to wait until May before he reappeared. Stepped up to two-miles-and-five-furlongs, he was notably weak in the betting which is worth noting. Fasol and two of Nicky Henderson’s, Ideal Des Bordes and Gentleman’s Relish, pulled well clear of the rest, with Fasol splitting the Henderson duo. The form is difficult to assess as that pair have been very inconsistent, but they do have some very solid form to their names and I’m taking the positive view that both ran right up to their best, considering they pulled well clear of a rival rated 112 at the time. 

Fasol did make one appearance over the summer, finishing a respectable fourth in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot in a first tongue-tie. He’ll find much easier opportunities back over hurdles, particularly as he’s been allocated an opening mark of 108. Given he’s currently rated 100 on the flat, there’s every chance he could make a mockery of that rating considering there are reasons to mark up his runs from last season.  

Paul Nicholls will no doubt find plenty of suitable opportunities for him – given his preference for a sounder surface, expect to see him out early in the season, possibly at the likes of Wincanton and Taunton.  

Trainer: Harry Derham.

Conditions: Handicap Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles and further.

Noel Fehily, David Crosse and their syndicate members have enjoyed a great deal of success since the syndicate’s formation five years ago, with 80 winners in total, including a Grade 1 victory. 

And while Casual Observer hasn’t added to the tally of winners as of yet, I’m expecting plenty of improvement this season.  

He ran okay in a bumper on his rules debut, but connections quickly decided to go hurdling as he was clearly not a bumper type. His debut over hurdles was encouraging, finishing a respectable second to Lord Of Thunder (who I also have high hopes for), staying on from off the pace in testing conditions. 

His next assignment was tougher – a competitive novice hurdle at Ascot that fellow Winless Ones To Watch member, Juventus De Brion, finished third in. Casual Observer could only manage fifth, but it was not a bad run under the circumstances and although he failed to beat a rival home on his final start of the season, he was only beaten eight-and-a-half lengths in a run that was not devoid of promise.  

Reading Harry Derham’s blog, in which he gives his thoughts about his runners each day, there is a theme when it comes to Casual Observer: immature, horse for next season, improve with time, still quite weak – labels all attached to Casual Observer, while he also vocalised prior to his final run that “he’s a beautiful horse; big, immature horse…but we’re looking at him as a long-term prospect”. 

The experience he picked up last season should prove invaluable, and with a mark of 109, it would be disappointing if couldn’t make his mark in handicaps. He finished second to last season’s Dublin Racing Festival Bumper winner, Jeroboam Machin, in his sole point-to-point, so there are plenty of reasons to believe there is more to come. 

Trainer: Fergal O’Brien. 

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-miles and further. 

Despite having his lowest number of winners for four seasons, Fergal O’Brien enjoyed a successful 2023/24 season: a second Grade 1 winner thanks to Crambo undoubtedly the highlight, while the yards strike rate was a healthy 17% (and backing them all would have yielded a 3% ROI). 

But interestingly, the yards performance in bumpers was notably down across all metrics. From the 2020/21 to 2022/23 seasons, the mean number of bumpers runners was 83, resulting in an average of 12 winners (14% strike-rate). Last season, however, there were only 42 runners and 3 winners (7% strike-rate); Horaces Pearl won twice, including at the Aintree festival and Tripoli Flyer won an all-weather bumper before finishing second at the Aintree festival.  

Perhaps this is indicative of a more patient, quality over quantity approach. With that said, while Oak Grove failed to win a bumper, there could be a lot more to come. 

Bought for £250,000 after winning his second Point-to-Point, the most expensive purchase Fergal has bought in the ring, he was keen to temper expectations; in an early-season stable tour, he said “you won’t see him much this year. There’s no rush with him… he’s a big horse and his future lies ahead of him”. 

He duly made his bumper debut in a deep race at Ascot, staying on well under a patient ride to finish fifth having been tenth turning for home. He was notably weak in the betting so all in all, this was a pleasing introduction and the race has worked out quite well. 

He reappeared four-and-a-half months later having been a non-runner on deep ground three times, which perhaps is a sign that they were very much minding him last season. This time, he was ridden positively but was no match for the smart Castle Ivers. 

Subsequently sold as part of the Chris Giles dispersal sale, Fergal bought him back for £60,000 and is no doubt was delighted to keep him in the yard. His dam is a full sister to Voler La Vedette and Molineux, a half-sister to Hennessy while Shishkin & Good Boy Bobby also feature in her lineage. I expect him to take a big step forward now hurdling, and he should improve for going up in trip. Good ground is seemingly important to him. 

Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore.

Conditions: Novice Hurdles over two miles to two-and-a-half miles.

Authentic Legacy put himself on the radar with a very encouraging run on his rules debut in a Listed Junior Bumper at Cheltenham. In a race where the majority of his rivals had winning or solid place form to their name, the rules debutant was badly hampered on the turn for home as the race developed into a sprint, but he stayed on admirably well to finish fourth. 

Despite the strength of opposition that day, he wasn’t without support (SP 17/2) which must indicate that he was held in relatively high regard. Following that, he was targeted at the valuable Goffs Sales Bumper at Newbury – traditionally a very strong race. Sent off the 6/1 third-favourite, he was no match for the impressive Regent’s Stroll but ran a fine race to finish eighth where only three-and-a-half lengths separated second to eighth.  

Given one run in a Junior Hurdle at the end of the season, he was given a patient ride and finished a good second to Knight Of Allen, who made most of the running. The form looks solid for a race of it’s nature: the winner had been highly tried and had finished second to 131-rated Liari in a listed race, while the third (also prominent throughout) had hurdling experience and ran out a ready winner of a Novice Hurdle next time out.  

Only a four-year-old, there should be plenty more to come from Authentic Legacy and I like that they didn’t over face him last term. The experience should serve him well, and given he’s by Authorized out of a Presenting mare, he was always going to be more of a long-term prospect rather than a horse that is at their best in Junior Bumpers. His three half-siblings have proven effective over intermediate trips, and I expect him to follow suit in time. Watch out for him in Novice company earlier in the season, and for when he moves into handicaps.