Winless Ones To Watch part four: Mullins youngster among final five

Trainer: Sam Thomas.

Ideal conditions: Handicaps over two-miles (and further, if settling).

He may need a win, but he didn’t get one last season, and thus finds himself on this list. 

And the one thing he truly needs to do is mature, as he did look a tricky sort last season. That was certainly the case on his debut at Hereford, an extremely sharp right-handed track where you certainly don’t want to be jumping or hanging to your left. Knead A Win didn’t get the memo, jumping violently out to his left early on and giving Dylan Johnston a horrid time. He was still going well when running out at the second last, and I'd say we’re unlikely to see him going right-handed again any time soon. 

His second start came at Uttoxeter where he did look more straightforward, and was clearly helped by the left-handed track. Given a positive ride, he raced quite enthusiastically and was ultimately beaten comfortably by the more experienced Oh My Johnny (121). We last saw him at Ffos Las in January in a strong race where he again went from the front and was keen to get on with things, giving a bold show before being headed after the last.

The winner, Juby Ball, won impressively under a penalty next time out and looks a very exciting prospect, while Lud’or (123), the runner-up, sets a solid benchmark. Even the distant fourth went on to finish fourth in the EBF Final, so this looks a strong piece of form. 

He was due to run in a handicap in February but was pulled out on account of the going turning heavy, so that is something to consider moving forward. That was also over two-and-a-half miles, as was his debut, and he looks as though he should do better over a trip, but he needs to learn to relax. I’m sure he’s better than a rating of 115, and if the time off has served him well, he could be a real improver this term. 

Trainer: Joe Tizzard.

Ideal conditions: Handicap Hurdles/Chases over three miles.

The EBF Final is synonymous for producing three-mile chasers, and Not So Woolly, who finished a respectable fifth at Sandown, looks set to be another example. 

He ran OK in a bumper in April 2024 but took a good step forward on his hurdling debut, staying on strongly over an extended 2m2f at Exeter behind Pony Soprano and Sorceleur to pull well clear of the remainder. While he never looked like winning, it was a promising start. It was a similar story on his next start at Lingfield in a race that developed into a test of speed (the winner had a 115% winning speed), anf he didn’t quite have the pace of It’s Hard To Know (123) or Metkayina (129), but he plugged on well, despite signs of greenness, into a respectable third. 

Two more solid runs followed behind Belliano and Go West before he lined up in the aforementioned EBF Final, where he sported first-time cheekpieces. Joe Tizzard mentioned that he hoped the headgear would “make him settle better”, but it seemed to have the opposite effect as he travelled keenly in the early stages. It was a solid effort in what is traditionally a very strong handicap, and he’s since been dropped a pound to a mark of 117. 

By Kayf Tara out of a point/three-mile chase winner, he looks an out-and-out stayer, and his pedigree also suggests that three miles is what he wants. His jumping hasn’t always been the most convincing, but he’s a big horse who may well respect a fence more than he does a hurdle. 

Trainer: Willie Mullins.

Ideal conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-and-half-miles (and further). 

Not many Willie Mullins-trained horses are eligible for this list, let alone ones that are “top-drawer”, according to the great man himself. 

Yet here is the five-year-old, a horse that has seemingly been held in the highest regard for a long time. Tony Costello dubbed him Elvis: “very simply, he was the King”. 

Despite this incredibly high praise, he hasn’t quite lived up to it, as of yet. He made his debut in the Goffs Defender Bumper in 2024, where he was somewhat weak in the betting, despite being talked up beforehand. Having been forced quite wide at a crucial stage, he looked outpaced when initially asked to make a move. He stayed on well, closing all the way to the line without ever looking like closing the gap. It was a promising debut, without suggesting he was indeed destined for the throne. 

We would have to wait a full year before we saw him on the track again, suggesting he had some sort of setback that stopped him from going over hurdles. This time, he ran in a 2m3f bumper, won by the highly-promising Soldier In Milan. King Rasko Grey ran a very similar race to 12 months ago after making a move on the outside, while looking outpaced, plus finished strongly without ever threatening the winner. 

His dam won over a mile on the flat, so his pedigree wouldn’t scream “stayer”, but on the evidence of his two starts under rules thus far, he looks sure to appreciate, at minimum, 2m4f over hurdles, with three miles sure to be his optimum trip eventually. His connections have given him plenty of time to develop and mature and, hopefully, this is the season he begins to fulfil his potential. 

Place De La Nation was another who was on my shortlist, having shown significant potential as a juvenile last season, but she’s already second favourite for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, so is not quite “under the radar” enough for my liking! 

Trainer: Venetia Williams.

Ideal conditions: Handicap chases.

A leap of faith is required with Falco Des Pins, who was very disappointing on his four starts in Britain last season. A double-figure price on each occasion, he often raced quite enthusiastically before failing to finish out his races. His final start at Bangor was more encouraging, where he made good headway from the rear to at least get competitive, for all that he was eventually well beaten in eighth. 

I keep coming back to a conversation I had with Adam Mills, an expert on French recruits, at the start of last season. While discussing various horses who were coming over from France, he said of Falco Des Pins: “He will not win a Novice Hurdle, but there will be a time either at the end of this season, or the beginning of next, where he’ll make a mockery of his mark over fences”. The form of his Angers run still reads well, too, and it was not that long ago when he finished a good second there in a race where the first, third and fourth had BHA equivalent ratings of 125, 114 and 127. 

Having dropped 16lb in the handicap since his British debut, he could well be your archetypal Venetia Williams improver. Her strike-rate with French-bred horses over hurdles is 11%, while it’s 18% over fences (and you’d have made a profit to BFSP backing them all blind over the past ten seasons). You don’t need to look very far to find other instances of horses that came over from France that disappointed in their first season with Williams before improving once sent chasing. Martator would be one of the more high-profile examples as he was never competitive in four handicap hurdle starts in his first season for the yard, but he improved dramatically over fences the following two seasons. 

Now only rated 96, he’s one to note closely when he makes his chase debut. Williams has a 25% strike-rate with French-bred horses making their chase debut in a handicap, and backing them all would have returned a 50% profit to SP. Given his profile, he may open up a fairly large price when that day comes, but it would be no surprise if he attracted significant market support. 

Trainer: Edward Cawley.

Ideal conditions: Handicaps over intermediate trips.

When compiling this list, naturally there are many times where I question the battling qualities of the horses I shortlist. This is one such example, but in Come Walk With Me’s case, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt...for now. 

He was an eye-catcher at Navan on his debut, despite being sent off at 150-1. His jumping was moderate, but he made good late headway into fifth in a race that has worked out well. He would step forward from that on his next start at Fairyhouse over two-and-a-half miles, and he attracted plenty of market support. Having cruised into the lead two out, he looked raw plus didn’t look the easiest under pressure. Sounds Victorius, a dour stayer, emerged the victor, with the pair pulling over 14 lengths clear of Champagne Kid (120). 

Two more second-place finishes followed, and he dropped back to two miles where, again having travelled powerfully, he found subsequent Grade One winner Honesty Policy too strong at the finish. He then bumped into the high-class Redemption Day at Naas (who was very well backed, but has unfortunately been retired since), with the pair pulling well clear of the rest. 

With that strong Maiden Hurdle form to his name, it was no surprise that he was well fancied on his handicap debut on Irish Grand National day. Upped in trip on testing ground, and always on the inside, he didn’t travel as well as he can and was ultimately well beaten. It’s a run I’m happy to forgive, though. 

He’s a horse that has plenty of scope and should have no problem going over fences, should Eddie Cawley decide to go down that route. I have little doubt that he’s more talented than his current rating of 125, but questions do remain about his strength in a finish, given he’s traded at 1.37 twice in-running, and he’s worn a tongue tie on his past two starts. 

I’m remaining optimistic in. He’s still very lightly raced, he had no point or bumper experience before going over hurdles, and I think he’ll benefit from better ground. He comes with risks attached, but he has the potential to be much better than his current rating.