Winless Ones To Watch part three: "He’ll be of significant interest"

Trainer: Christian Williams.

Ideal conditions: Handicap Chases over intermediate trips (and further).

Christian Williams’ strike-rate in maiden/novice hurdles is just 3% and, despite some big-priced winners, you’d have lost 60% of your money backing them all blind at SP. 

His record with handicap chasers, however, reads much more positively. A 15% strike-rate overall, which improves to 16% in races over three miles and beyond (and you’d have made a profit to SP). 

With that in mind, it’s always worth keeping in mind his novice hurdlers that have shown glimpses of promise, as they often improve down the line. 

I Ain’t Your Mate is one such case and, despite being comfortably beaten in all three starts last season, he should be capable of much better. His debut came at Taunton (sent off at 50-1) over an intermediate trip where he was comfortably held, and was never competitive. It was understandable why he went off 125-1 for his next start which came in a competitive two-mile novice hurdle at Doncaster. We touched on this particular race when discussing Sleeping Late, and while I Ain’t Your Mate was beaten over fifteen lengths in sixth, it was a step forward, and he wasn’t given a hard time once beaten. 

His final start last season came at Wincanton over the minimum distance, a trip which was always going to be on the sharp side, but it was another promising effort as he kept on from off the pace to finish fourth. 

While his rules form is OK, without leaping off the page, the form he showed in point-to-points makes him of serious interest moving forward. His debut third behind Meetmebythesea (133) and He Can’t Dance (third in a Grade Two Bumper) reads well, and he improved on that when finishing a neck second to El Cairos (fifth in the Champion Bumper) next time. 

He was due to make his handicap debut over an intermediate trip at Doncaster, but travel problems meant he was a non-runner, so he will now begin the new season on a rating of 101, with handicaps over further looking sure to bring about improvement. He’ll be of significant interest over fences, but he should not be discounted over hurdles, either. 

Trainer: Donald McCain.

Ideal conditions: Handicap Chases over three miles.

Your archetypal staying chaser in the making.

Skuna Bay ran in two Irish point-to-points, finishing runner-up on the second of those to Admiral Stewart, who was highly tried last season as a novice hurdler and is now rated 122. In Mark Howard’s One Jump Ahead, Donald McCain noted that he went to see him at that meeting. Skuna Bay was the pick of the paddock, and while he did also try to buy Admiral Stewart, he was more than happy to acquire Skuna Bay for a fifth of the price. 

This youngster made his rules debut at Carlisle over two-and-a-half miles where, having looked like he’d fade entirely out of shot after two out, he rallied to finish third, only narrowly behind Dazzlelikethis who finished second. He ran to a similar level on his next run which came at Bangor where he finished fourth in a fair race for the grade, perhaps inconvenienced by the sharper track. 

It’s his final start of the season that stands out on form, though. Ridden positively, he was headed on the run to the final hurdle but kept on gamely to finish second. The winner, Lud’or, represents a good benchmark and is now rated 123, while the third and fourth are now rated 113 and 111. In terms of style, it was very similar to his Carlisle run: travelled with enthusiasm, but lacked the necessary turn of foot when the race developed before staying on one-paced at the end. 

By Mahler, his dam is a half-sister to Major Malarkey (Devon National winner) and Twin Plan (three-mile winner). While his opening mark of 115 isn’t a gift, and I wouldn’t be keen if he was to reappear in a handicap hurdle over shorter, he has plenty of scope to improve as everything about him suggests he will improve for a fence, and stepping up in trip 

Trainer: Jeremy Scott.

Ideal conditions: Mares Novice/Handicap Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles.

It was a difficult start to the season for Jeremy Scott, who went 38 runners without a winner from September until December 6 when Leissieres Express won at Exeter. The Spring proved much more successful, with Golden Ace’s dramatic Unibet Champion Hurdle success undoubtedly the highlight! 

One horse who we didn’t see during the February/March purple patch was Western Article, who had shown plenty of promise in two starts during the yard’s leaner period. 

Purchased for £20,000 after finishing second in her sole Irish point-to-point start, she was sent off an unfancied 66-1 for her rules debut which came at Exeter in October. Given a positive ride, she was only a length down jumping the second last before tiring late on, looking in need of the run as many of the stable’s runners did at the time. While eventually finishing fourth, beaten 19 lengths, she shaped better than the bare result and the race has worked out well. The second and third both won two of their next four starts, while the fifth and sixth both also won in novice company. 

Despite the clear promise of her hurdling debut, she was yet again friendless in the betting ahead of her second run, this time going off 50-1 at Chepstow over a trip just shy of two-and-a-half miles. Ridden in mid-division, the race developed into a relative test of speed, with just a couple of lengths separating the first half dozen as they jumped the third last. As the tempo began to lift, Western Article looked green and hung out to her left under pressure quite notably in the closing stages before eventually finishing second. The substance of the form isn’t as deep as her debut, but the third is now rated 122, while the fourth and fifth are both rated 108. 

Given she looked quite green when we last saw her, and the form of the yard at the time she was running, there are plenty of reasons to believe she is capable of better. Allocated an opening mark of 105, it would be disappointing if she wasn’t rated quite a bit higher by the end of the season. It is a concern that we haven’t seen her since November 2024, but I have been told that she is back in work and Jeremy Scott did note her as one of the more promising young horses they had at the beginning of last season. Hopefully, she can make up for lost time in this campaign. 

Trainer: Henry de Bromhead.

Ideal conditions: Novice Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles and further.

The Henry de Bromhead and Barry Maloney combination have enjoyed a lot of success together, particularly in recent years. Minella Indo’s retirement will leave a void but they have some nice young horses coming through as Workahead and Koktail Divin impressed as novice hurdlers last season, and hopefully Walks In June will follow that path. 

He impressed in his sole Irish point-to-point start, winning impressively at Dawstown last May. The form has plenty of substance, with the second winning his only run under rules since while Conman John, who featured in part two of this list, finished back in third. 

He subsequently made his rules debut on St Stephen’s Day at Leopardstown in a traditionally-strong bumper. Well found in the market, the thick fog didn’t make it easy to follow but he could be seen staying on strongly at the finish, but not quite able to reel in Green Splendour. The winner went on to win the Grade Two at Aintree, so it was a fair effort on rules debut. 

His most recent run came in January and, unlike on debut, he was notably weak in the betting. Having gone forward, he weakened quickly after being headed with two furlongs to go in an effort that was too bad to be true, based on all known form. It’s worth noting that the yard were struggling at the time, with just two winners from 61 runners throughout January. 

De Bromhead described him as “a lovely young horse” that “we’ll take our time with a view to going hurdling next season”. Given the form he showed in his point and rules debut, combined with the general patient approach De Bromhead takes with his young horses and his notable pedigree (By Walk In The Park out of a half-sister to the smart Empire Of Dirt), he should make a smart novice hurdler this season. While not devoid of speed, he should improve as he steps up in trip. 

Trainer: Barry Connell.

Ideal conditions: Novice hurdles (two to two-and-a-half miles).

Barry Connell isn’t one to shy away when he thinks he has a nice horse on his hands; Marine Nationale, Good Land and William Munny the latest to emerge. 

It’s ambitious to expect Eachtotheirown to keep pace with that trio, but it’s hoped he can develop into a good novice hurdler this term. 

He made his debut at Navan in January, and went off the well-supported 6-4 favourite. Racing wide throughout, he travelled powerfully finding himself out on front going well with three furlongs to run until challengers lined up on either side. To his credit, he knuckled down well under pressure, just finding the strong-stayer Spinningayarn too good; both he, and the third were both emphatic winners of point-to-points while Eachtotheirown was having his first run of any kind, so this has to be considered a very promising debut. 

His most recent run came at Fairyhouse in a race won by some smart types in recent years: Down Memory Lane, Fury Road and Ferny Hollow included.  This year’s winner, Kaiser Ball, ran out an impressive winner but Eachtotheirown once again shaped with promise in second, with another Willie Mullins horse back in third. The distant fourth, Khmer, had previously been second to subsequent Aintree winner Green Splendour and ran a fair third at Limerick on his next start, while the fifth (Sticktotheplan) is now rated 133 over hurdles. 

By Westerner, his dam is a half-sister to two-mile-and-five furlong winner Glamorgan Duke and is from the family of Harbour Pilot, so Eachtotheirown should have little problem stepping up in trip.