Winless Ones To Watch: Four jumps horses to follow

Trainer: Harry Fry.

Ideal races: Novice Hurdles over two-and-a-half miles.

How Will I Know was purchased for £75,000 at the March Cheltenham sale in 2021 having finished an unlucky second on debut at Punchestown, and the form of that race has a solid look to it. The winner, Ernest Grey, subsequently sold for £105,000 and bolted up on his debut for Alan King before being sent off a well-fancied 4-1 chance for the Aintree bumper, while the third and fourth have both won since under rules.

The five-year-old’s British debut wasn’t quite as impressive as the aforementioned Ernest Grey, but it certainly confirmed the promise that he had shown at Punchestown. Having moved well in midfield throughout much of the race, he made an impressive move through horses to challenge for the lead inside the final two furlongs. He pulled clear with Shallow River (first) & Shomen Uchi (second), ultimately coming out third best, but only by a length.

Shallow River went on to win impressively on his hurdling debut while the runner-up won next time out before finishing a creditable sixth at Aintree.

A half-brother to the useful duo Murphy’s Law and Old Rascals, whose victories came over trips ranging from 2m4f to 2m7f, I suspect that is How Will I know will follow suit in proving most effective over intermediate distances.

Deep, winter ground should pose no issues for him and he looks the type to develop into an above-average novice hurdler for the Harry Fry team.

Harry Fry says:: “How Will I Know was back in training on September 1st, with a view to running from December onwards. The plan is to go novice hurdling & see how he progresses.”

Trainer: Tom Symonds.

Ideal races: Novice hurdles over two miles.

An accomplished performer on the flat, Kellahen made a pleasing transition to hurdles in two rather low-key efforts last season while leaving the impression that better was to come.

A prolific three-year old when trained in Germany, he won a German Derby trial before being sent off at single-figure odds for the German Derby itself, in which he finished down the field, although he did win the Austrian Derby on his next start.

He ended up winning twice as a four-year-old in France, earning a British equivalent mark of 92, and while discretion is advised when comparing French and British ratings, it does help to ratify that he is clearly a talented horse.

It was therefore a surprise to see him make a belated hurdling debut at Huntingdon in January 2022 where he produced an encouraging effort given it was his stable, hurdle, and British debut following a five-month absence. He certainly showed an aptitude for hurdling there plus raced enthusiastically before tiring towards the finish.

He produced a slightly improved effort next time out when giving the useful Whizz Kid a race, briefly threatening to challenge before weakening after the last, at which point he was looked after by Ben Poste.

As Tom Symonds mentions below, Kellahen always gave the impression that he would benefit from a break afterwards as, despite the fact he was absent for five months following his final start in France, he was quite intensely campaigned as a three and four-year-old, and it can take time for horses to adapt.

I wouldn’t be looking to back Kellahen first time out this season, but he will become an interesting proposition upon entering handicap company (mark dependent, of course).

Tom Symonds says: “Kellahen is back in and cantering away again. We were very pleased with his hurdle runs last season, and I know there are bits we can improve on. Last season was adequate, but it may be beneficial that he remains a novice for this season after a summer at grass. It just felt that last year we were training a horse that could benefit from a break at some point. The plan this season would be to get a mark on his first start and be guided by that. I would imagine he will stay further but we will probably stick to two miles to start with. He is a lovely horse that seems to really enjoy his new discipline. From the start he was very forward in his schooling sessions. He is in good form and rather fresh at present, so fingers crossed we have a clear run with him.”

Trainer: Fergal O’Brien.

Ideal races: Handicap Chases over intermediate trips.

Formerly trained by Nick Williams, Keplerian was one that typified the trainer’s approach to young, maturing horses in that it was clear he was learning on the job, and I am sure Keplerian will progress as expected for Fergal O’Brien, who now trains this youngster due to Williams handing in his UK licence.

His first two starts under rules were underwhelming, but he took a step forward on his third start when finishing a fair fourth in a maiden hurdle at Chepstow.

Ridden with restraint, he travelled through the race well before making smooth headway to track the leaders on the turn for home. He couldn’t match the leading trio for speed, but he kept on nicely without being given a hard time by Chester Williams.

He ran a similar race 12 days later in a good maiden hurdle at Exeter where he again travelled like a good horse before hitting a flat spot, and then rallying to finish fourth.

With all three starts over hurdles coming over two miles, it appeared obvious to step him up in trip for his handicap debut, and that’s what connections did. However, several flights of hurdles were omitted, with the race turning into a thorough test of stamina which is not what Keplerian needed at that stage of his career, particularly as he was carrying top weight.

There were positives to take from it, however, and he dropped to a mark of 97 following that run. I have little doubt that he’s a better horse than we’ve seen so far, and we have often seen horses trained by Nick Williams improve dramatically for the experience plus Keplerian looked like a big-framed youngster in need of experience, and time, last season.

He’s from a family that Williams and the owners have had great success with, being a half-brother to Horatio Hornblower, Le Cameleon and Moonlighter. Like them, I have no doubt that trips in excess of two miles will see him to best effect once he matures, while he also looks the type to thrive over fences.

Quite whether he will be the finished article by the end of the season remains to be seen, but Fergal O’Brien will be the beneficiary of the education Keplerian has received so far and, given his handler’s recent track record, this five-year-old could rack up multiple victories this season and beyond, especially since he’s starting from such a lowly mark.

Trainer: Nicky Martin.

Ideal races: Handicap chases over three-miles plus.

Lucky So And So not only caught my eye at Exeter on his hurdling debut, he also received plenty of attention from the stewards after powering home having been towards the rear throughout the majority of the race.

Tailed off in sixth as the leading quintet approached the third last, David Pritchard only asked him for a serious effort after the final flight, at which point he passed two horses to finish a clear third, with his rider noting that he “got a second wind turning in”.

Admittedly, he was only passing beaten rivals, but it was still a noteworthy effort from the 125-1 chance.

Upped in trip to an extended three-mile-and-one-furlong for his next start, he was again ridden patiently and showed signs of greenness throughout. As the front two began to stride on after the third last, Lucky So And So appeared to be flat out, but he again stayed on stoutly, and nearly pinched second from Late Romantic who, together with the winner, has significantly more experience and both were up with the pace throughout.

Dropped back to an intermediate trip for his final outing of the season, he was ridden more aggressively but lacked the pace necessary to maintain his challenge as the leading group turned into the straight.

Following those three runs over hurdles, he has been allocated an opening mark of 112, which is fair based on what he’s achieved. However, he has plenty of scope for improvement once switched to chasing, with David Pritchard noting in the aforementioned steward’s report that his charge “is a future three-mile chaser who gallops at one pace”.

It would be of no surprise to see him return to Exeter, where two of his three starts over hurdles have been, for some of their marathon handicap chases. Only a five-year-old, he has his best days ahead of him.

Nicky Martin says: “The summer has done him well; he’s filled out a lot. The plan is to go chasing, although we have not jumped a fence yet! I was very pleased with last season, and he does need a good three miles and soft ground.”