Two handicap hotshots to look out for on Monday

The Coral Welsh Grand National and Paddy Power Chase are two of the biggest and most valuable handicap chases run over Christmas. Tadhg Creedon has studied both and nominates his best bets.

The qualities of trainer Peter Fahey have been well-known to Irish racing fans for some time, but it is only in the past year that his name has been thrust into the limelight across the water. That was courtesy of his first Grade One winner, when Belfast Banter won at Aintree in April.

Fahey looks to have a talented staying chaser on his hands, too, in The Big Dog, who cannot have the ground soft enough and is unexposed in marathon races.

A graduate from the Irish point-to-point scene, the eight-year-old’s future was always going to be over fences despite showing promise over the smaller obstacles, particularly when running the now 163-rated chaser Castlebawn West to a head in a novice hurdle at Leopardstown in December 2018.

The transition to fences last season looked to be a seamless one and, having run with credit behind the likes of Longhouse Poet, Colreevy and Run Wild Fred, the son of Mahler justified strong market support when landing the valuable Punchestown Grand National Trial in April.

He showed an excellent attitude to prevail, despite being headed over the last and rider Jamie Codd losing an iron. He dug deep to edge home by a half-length from Screaming Colours, to whom he was giving 11lb.

With connections keen to protect his mark, which doesn’t look too harsh at all (147), he has been given pipe-openers at both Wexford, in a Listed Chase, and a handicap hurdle at Navan earlier in the month.

The services of Johnny Burke have also been snapped up and he looks an ideal replacement for the suspended Jamie Codd.

Another plus for connections is the news that former winner Native River is on course to run, which will leave The Big Dog carrying 10st 7lb. Given the fact that this will be the culmination of a long-term plan, Fahey’s charge makes plenty of appeal at the odds.

A Wave Of The Sea first served notice of his potential in staying handicap chases when an eye-catching sixth in the Kerry National at Listowel in September.

That being his first attempt at 3m, the Joseph O’ Brien-trained gelding looked to hold every chance before a less than fluent jump two out cost him any chance of running down Assemble or Brahma Bull (third in Ladbrokes Trophy subsequently).

Next time out, at Limerick, he ran a cracker to be beaten just over two lengths by Willie Mullins’ handicap blot Ontheropes, who would go on to finish a respectable fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy.

Still only five, the sense one gets is that this horse could be one for an Aintree or Irish Grand National in time. But, for now, a return to his beloved Leopardstown may well work the oracle.

A Grade One winner as a juvenile hurdler here in February 2020, he has always possessed plenty of ability, and much of that came to the fore again when he landing a valuable handicap prize here in February.

Running over an extended 2m1f, he came with his customary late flourish to nab stablemate Top Moon near the line, with subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner, The Shunter, back in third. He might not have cut much ice for the remainder of last season but connections no doubt saw enough that day in February to know they had a decent staying chaser in the making and so it has proved this season.

The seven-time winner remains unexposed at 3m and looks underestimated in the market for this year’s Paddy Power Chase; a race in which his owner, JP McManus, has a particularly excellent record, having won three of the past six renewals with Auvergnat (2018), Anibale Fly (2017), and Minella Foru (2015). The O’Brien stable is in form and the return to Foxrock with the hustle and bustle of a large field seems sure to suit. A Wave Of The Sea makes strong each-way appeal at the 16-1 on offer.