Tote Ten to Follow: Oppose these high-profile picks

While success in the Tote Ten to Follow competition depends on identifying the best horses across a spread of divisions and covering as many bonus races as possible, I always feel that you’re trying to beat other players and ‘opposing’ popular picks can prove a high-reward strategy.

Those familiar with fantasy football games will know the principle; spotting the cheap-priced option in midfield with little ownership who’s just starting to get minutes in the side and creating chances, providing ‘differential’ value. Conversely, omitting those big-priced, popular options who are underperforming can really let you steal a march on potential rivals.

While Honeysuckle and Shishkin look genuine ‘must-haves’ in this year’s game, we can perhaps look for chinks in some other popular selections - even if that means just taking a view on a handful of the standout horses.

We have to try and not be contrarian here for the sake of it, while the potential for egg on one’s face when going down this avenue is never too remote. Having said that, recent evidence is on our side with Altior, Saint Roi, Epatante and Cyrname all proving popular picks yet disappointing point-scorers last year.

Here are five names with decent ownership who might warrant second thoughts ahead of the entry deadline on Saturday, November 13. Good luck!

*** Ownership statistics correct as of Monday, November 8***

His quality is not in question but I think he has a little more to prove yet.

While back with a confidence-boosting victory at Down Royal last week, the form as a whole lacks substance – despite the large winning margin – and he now goes into top-level senior company against hardened and proven campaigners, likely in the John Durkan next. His form over fences is mostly in small fields, and against lesser rivals after scaring most of the competition away in the first half of last season.

While he’ll improve for his return, he does look more ‘switched on’ and keener in his starts so far for Henry de Bromhead than with Gordon Elliott and I’m mindful of that up in class.

De Bromhead is seemingly not sold of the idea of going over three miles – which seems wise given Envoi Allen’s racing demeanour in recent starts - but that presents a lack of obvious Grade One target at the Dublin Racing Festival while the Ryanair Chase over the intermediate trip was won in stunning style last season by Allaho.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw him over two miles at some point, but that is a specialist division with some strong up-and-comers and he wouldn’t have much time to acclimatise.

He was brilliant in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year and is very much the one to beat this season, while he will typically improve from his seasonal reappearance at Down Royal.

The King George seems a likely target next, but that looks competitive up against several types really primed for the race. For Minella Indo, Kempton over Christmas doesn’t look an ideal test and rather more of a step that just fits in on the ultimate route back to the Cheltenham Festival. The Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival is likely to be on the agenda again, but he was beaten at a short price last year and has made jumping errors on both visits to Leopardstown.

His stablemate A Plus Tard looks particularly appealing with the bonus races he’s likely to contest, with the Betfair Chase, Savills Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup inked in. The two will surely be kept apart to some degree and, to try and widen the net for points by omitting two ‘similar’ point-scoring types in the same stable, A Plus Tard would be preferred of the two.

This likeable campaigner scored over 55 points last year - and that should have been more but for missing Cheltenham at the eleventh hour. He looks the obvious one to be with in the stayers’ division over hurdles, but it’s his high ownership in conjunction with his underwhelming return that raises questions.

His Grade One assignment in France last week was a tough test against proven top-class Auteuil performers, while he was keen early on over unfamiliar obstacles. Philip Hobbs also stated this was partly a fact-finding mission for the French Champion Hurdle in the spring, while the timing suited ahead of his principal early-season target, the Long Walk at Ascot.

But the trainer also said fitness wouldn’t be an issue and this was underwhelming whatever way you slice it. Thyme Hill may well bounce back, but he has questions to answer ahead of his next appearance in Grade One company now.

Furthermore, Thyme Hill has not run in the same calendar year before both of his Cheltenham Festival appearances, and that would have been three but for his late withdrawal last year. The Stayers’ Hurdle followed by Aintree are his main targets, but a quiet winter - and missing an 'easier' target in the Cleeve Hurdle - lessens his points potential all the same.

The stayers’ division – particularly at Cheltenham – could also have some interesting new contenders this time. Klassical Dream put up a huge rating after a long absence at the Punchestown Festival, while Cesarewitch winner Buzz could make a mark.

The more you watch his Champion Chase defeat, the more disappointing it is.

He swung into the straight but found disappointingly little when looking much the likeliest winner and, while he may not have been 100 per cent on the day – nothing has come to light since – I don’t think you could ever back him with conviction again at Cheltenham.

Chacun Pour Soi has looked majestic in the last two seasons at Punchestown but that late-spring meeting falls outside of the timeframe of the Tote Ten to Follow, while he is lightly-raced over his career for a reason. Despite his very few miles on the clock, he is also rising ten years of age.

Notably, this division looks stronger this year with Energumene a new and formidable domestic rival, while Shishkin should be another at Cheltenham in March. Chacun Pour Soi scored over 76.7 points last year – a good total – but his potential looks significantly less this year.

He made a lovely chase debut at Newton Abbot and bypassing the “Rising Stars” at Wincanton has arguably made him a more appealing Tote Ten to Follow prospect, with a Grade 2 assignment at Newbury and the Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton the potential targets over the next few months.

However, that three-mile test at Kempton may not absolutely be his bag – Paul Nicholls has already mentioned the King George of 2022 as something he’s like to work towards – while given how well he jumps, Bravemansgame could have a lighter campaign this season given he’s unlikely to need an abundance of match practice. He may also be kept away from real winter ground.

He ran a good race in the Ballymore last year but he was put in his place by both Gaillard Du Mesnil and notably the winner, Bob Olinger. The same fate could await this year in the expectation he sticks to intermediate trips – and, if so, there are no bonus races open to him.