What a weekend we have in store at the Dublin Racing Festival, with eight Grade One races that are sure to throw up some big Cheltenham Festival clues, Storm Chandra-permitting.
I have taken a close look at the short-priced favourites at this year’s Leopardstown extravaganza, and whether they are worth backing or opposing.
Tom Stanley and Daryl Jacob preview this weekend's Dublin Racing Festival, live on Racing TV.
Saturday
Doctor Steinberg
Race: Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle
Best odds: Evens
Willie Mullins does not seemingly have the strength in depth we have become accustomed to with his novice hurdlers this season, but it looks as if this son of Doctor Dino will take all the beating in the opening race of the Festival on Saturday.
His pedigree is littered with stamina and he has winning form on heavy ground, having comfortably accounted for subsequent Grade Two winner Thedeviluno at Navan last month to make it two from two over hurdles.
Mullins has won this race in four of the past five years, including in the past two years with Dancing City and Final Demand, and in what is likely to be an extreme test of stamina, Doctor Steinberg makes plenty of appeal and sets the form standard of the likely runners in this event.
Verdict: Banker.
Narciso Has
Race: Gannon's City Recovery & Recycling Services Juvenile Hurdle
Best odds: 8-11
Narciso Has undoubtedly put up the most visually impressive performance from a juvenile this season when running away with the Grade Two at Leopardstown on St Stephen’s Day, a race won this decade by Hello Neighbour, Kala Conti, Lossiemouth, Fil Dor and Zanahiyr.
The only one of that quintet to have followed up in this event was Hello Neighbour last year, but two others went on to finish second, and Zanahiyr was sent straight to the Triumph Hurdle where he was sent off favourite.
A winner on debut last spring at Auteuil, Narciso Has was quickly snapped up by JP McManus and finished second giving weight away to the race-fit Mange Tout on his first run for the yard in November. I would be fairly confident that, even on 4lb worse terms here, he can reverse form with Gordon Elliott’s filly with more experience now under his belt.
The question mark is how Narciso Has will handle this softer ground. Stablemate Selma De Vary ought to handle it if taking her chance, but she has not run for the yard yet and will probably improve for the outing.
Meanwhile, Mullins’s only other entry, Bertutea, is a horse I really like and has gone under the radar slightly this season, but he will need to improve on the bare form of his Limerick win last month. Overall, Narciso Has looks a worth favourite and sets the standard.
Verdict: Banker.
Romeo Coolio
Race: Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase
Best odds: 5-4
Romeo Coolio oozed class when beating a good field in the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown last time.
This looks an absolute cracker, with Romeo Coolio, Kopek Des Bordes and Kargese all entered, and it is sure to have a huge bearing on the ante-post market for the Arkle at Cheltenham, which is currently headed by Lulamba at a best-priced 7-4.
Kopek Des Bordes comfortably got the better of Romeo Coolio in last year’s Supreme, but hurdles form does not always correlate to chase form and Elliott’s stable star is three from three over the bigger obstacles this season.
He recorded a Jump Index of 9.0 and 8.2 on his two previous runs according to RaceiQ, much better than the figure recording by Kopek Des Bordes on his only chase start in weaker company.
Kargese was comfortably beaten on her chase debut, but she improved to win impressively last time with an excellent Jump Index of 9.3 and gets 7lb from the front two in the market, so she has to be taken seriously, but this is a step up and I can see Romeo Coolio landed a strong race over course and distance last time and he looks to have the necessary stamina reserves to come home in front.
Verdict: Banker.
Galopin Des Champs
Race: Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup
Best odds: 5-4
Can
Galopin Des Champs make history and become the first horse to win four successive Irish Gold Cups? He has a good chance according to the market, with his current odds as short as even-money,
However, standing in his way could be Affordale Fury and I Am Maximus, who both defeated him in the Savills Chase, plus emphatic Welsh
Grand National winner Haiti Couleurs, top-class stablemate Fact To File, and the reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin - who, it must be said, has plenty to prove after two lifeless displays this season.
Galopin Des Champs' third over course and distance last time was his first defeat over fences at the track and he can be expected to take a step forward from that run, so it would be no surprise at all should he land a remarkable 13th Grade One on Saturday.
Now aged 10 though, it is hard to see him improving a great deal and if it turns onto a real test (the ground is unreachable at the time of writing) then I would be more tempted to back the stamina-laden Haiti Couleurs each-way at 8-1. The percentage call is to look elsewhere for value.
Verdict: Blowout.
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Sunday
Final Demand
Race: Ladbrokes Novice Chase
Best odds: 4-9
Final Demand made it two from two over fences in the Faugheen Novice Chase last time.
Already an even-money chance for the Brown Advisory, Final Demand ought to be winning this race comfortably if he has any chance of winning at Cheltenham and he is likely to go off at long odds-on for this Grade One over two mile, five and a half furlongs.
Two from two over fences with wins at Navan and Limerick, his chase form is nothing special and the last race he contested fell apart somewhat after his nearest market rival and stablemate Jimmy Du Seuil was tailed off, but he looked very professional and won with plenty in hand. His only defeat of any kind remains his third behind The New Lion at Cheltenham last March and there may be more improvement to come.
He is rated 10lb superior to his nearest rival in the betting for this, Kaid d'Authie, and he should take plenty of beating on ground we know he likes.
Verdict: Banker.
Talk The Talk
Race: Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle
Best odds: 2-1
Talk The Talk fell at the last at Leopardstown in December when looking the likely winner, but this looks a strong race.
Joseph O’Brien’s five-year-old has been subject to glowing reports and has been a big mover in the Supreme market in the weeks since his defeat in the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas.
Held up in rear, he made smooth progress to lead over the last and jumped the hurdle well enough, only to fall to the ground after landing, leaving Skylight Hustle to run out a five-length winner.
He looked the likely winner that day and is clearly very talented but his three main rivals in the market for this race all arrive here off the back of impressive wins. In the case of second favourite Ballyfad, he comfortably accounted for Leader d’Allier by a wide margin, who has since won by nine lengths this week.
Willie Mullins also has four entered in this race, which looks a strong event, and at the current odds, I would be looking to take the favourite on.
Verdict: Blowout.
Marine Nationale
Race: Ladbrokes Dublin Chase
Best odds: 6-4
Barry Connell raised plenty of eyebrows and created plenty of column inches earlier this month when he said that, in his opinion, his stable star Marine Nationale simply had to complete the course in order to defend his Queen Mother Champion Chase title in March.
He is a worthy favourite for that race, but Connell's assessment that the Clarence House Chase was a "Mickey Mouse race" was wide of the mark. The winner Jonbon, who is still yet to finish outside of the first two, was winning his 11th Grade One, the runner-up Thistle Ask had won his past five races and broke the Kempton track record in winning the Desert Orchid, and Il Etait Temps, whilst below his best when falling at Ascot, is rated higher than Marine Nationale, has won six Grade Ones, and had won his previous five races by over 40 lengths.
Sunday's race looks like a re-run of the Paddy's Rewards Club Chase run over this course and distance on December 27. The winner Solness, is set to re-oppose runner-up Marine Nationale, and third-placed Majborough is also entered.
Half a length was the difference at the line between Solness and Marine Nationale last time, but Sean Flanagan's mount lost several lengths after a significant error at the second fence and deserves plenty of credit for giving the winner such a race.
Much softer conditions are likely this weekend and I have not quite given up on Majborough, who can have a say in matters if he can get into a better rhythm with his jumping. This is a decent race, and another I will be taking the favourite on in.
Verdict: Blowout.
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