Dublin Racing Festival tips: this 12-1 chance is overpriced

One of the most difficult puzzles to solve at the Dublin Racing Festival is undoubtedly race three on Saturday, the Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (2.25) over three miles, with the betting at the time of writing 6-1 the field.

There have not been many five-year-olds contest this race, just ten over the past decade, and although none have won, several Gordon Elliott-trained runners from that age group have been placed, with the likes of Flawless Escape, Delta Work and Yeats Star all having a say in the finish.

There is just one five-year-old entered in this year's renewal, namely WENDROCK, who is also trained by Elliott. He is yet to run over this far, but could really improve for it, and he was a real eye-catcher at this track last time over an extended two and a half miles.

Settled in rear, he was out of shot approaching the final hurdle but put in a good jump and made up significant ground in the final furlong to finish fifth under a 5lb claimer.

He was the fastest horse in the race through the final five furlongs and his FSP of 108.23% was also the highest in the field. He also recorded the highest average and maximum stride length of the 16 runners.

He has often looked outpaced over two miles, doing well to run as well as he has on several occasions, including finishing sixth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival off top weight last year where he was yet again nearest at the finish.

I suspect he can improve for a stronger test of stamina and a mark of 130 is more than workable. The likelihood of Jack Kennedy riding here is an obvious upgrade too, and he is widely available at 12-1 at the time of writing. This is his only entry.

The third race of the day on Sunday, the two-mile Grade One Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (1.40) could be one of the best races of the weekend. The current market leader Talk The Talk did everything but win last time out, whilst King Rasko Grey, The Reverend and Davy Crockett all come here off the back of impressive victories.

The one that makes most appeal, however, is another last time out winner and another Gordon Elliott-trained runner in BALLYFAD. Four from four, he won his only point-to-point over three miles, won both of his bumpers in the autumn and took a big step forward to win his on his hurdling debut over this course and distance on St Stephen's Day, having jumped well (gaining 8.94 lengths in the air) and staying on powerfully from the front.

That maiden hurdle has been won by some smart sorts in the past, including Kopek Des Bordes last season, as well as Klassical Dream, and this season's renewal looks stronger now that the runner-up Leader d'Allier, whom Ballyfad beat by nine and a half lengths, came out and won by a similar margin on Monday.

He is still available at 4-1 with William Hill for this contest and that looks too big, especially as we know he is a likely runner, he is a strong stayer over this trip and he already has winning form in testing conditions. More improvement will be needed, but that looks very possible here having likely learnt plenty from his debut outing over obstacles.

WENDROCK at a general 12-1.

BALLYFAD at 4-1 with William Hill.