The Verdict Extra: winners in waiting plus 33-1 Ascot tip

The Verdict Extra: winners in waiting plus 33-1 Ascot tip

By Angus McNae
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
The Verdict: Angus McNae analyses the key performances at the 2023 Derby Festival
Auguste Rodin announced himself as being a world-class colt in winning the Betfred Derby at Epsom, and there is going to be more to come from this son of Deep Impact.
He was deceptively quick through the final three furlongs, and it may come as a surprise that he completed the final three furlongs quicker than Emily Upjohn did in the Coronation Cup, despite that filly producing an electric turn of foot. Make no mistake, Auguste Rodin is the real deal.
Here are three more noteworthy performances from last week, one of which is from the two-day Derby Festival. Make sure you add them to your Racing TV Tracker to be notified when they are next running.

TOSHIZOU

Cadillac's performance in the Betfred Handicap at Epsom was highlighted on The Verdict, and he will be a horse to side with at Royal Ascot this month, but Toshizou, who finished fourth in the same contest, is worthy of a sectional upgrade.
The race was steadily run, with the Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) being recorded as 112.86%. The winner, who quickened smartly having been poorly placed in last turning for home, completed the final three furlongs in a rapid 32.90s.
Toshizou was also held up in rear, but came home faster and recorded a time of 32.87s in the final three furlongs.
That fact he didn’t finish closer to the winner is because he didn't get a smooth passage through the field when the pace increased.
That increase came in the seventh furlong (F7) where the winner quickened and recorded a 10.31s furlong. Toshizou was much slower, recording a 10.6s furlong.
Cadillac basically got going sooner, and once Toshizou found his stride, he matched Cadillac in the next furlong (F8) as both horses recorded a 10.44s furlong. The damage had been done in F7, though.
Sometimes, horses that run on from the rear can be deceptive as they are often only passing those who are tiring in front of them, but this was a steadily run race, and the winner, and Toshizou, sprinted to catch rivals who were not stopping.
Cadillac won a shade comfortably, and while Toshizou was not an unlucky loser, he is clearly talented and in good form. Roger Fell's charge is entered in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot but, given this was his first start over ten furlongs in Britain, it may well be worth persevering with him over this trip.

ZARGA

Zarga struck me as a youngster worth adding to your Racing TV Tracker following his second at Redcar last week.
The daughter of Camelot finished second to Spring Fever in this 1m2f handicap, but is much better than the bare result, and should win next time out.
The race was quite steadily run, with the winner recording an FSP of 108.92%. Zarga was poorly positioned given how this race unfolded, and the Course Track sectionals paint her in a positive light.
Her final three furlongs of 34.63s was quicker than the winner who recorded 34.76s. The well-bred Spring Fever may have won a shade cosily, but she got first run on Zarga who showed how good her ability is in the penultimate furlong.
In that furlong, she clocked an 11.18s sectional, with none of the other runners being able to dip under 11.50s.
Every horse had a clear run in that furlong, and Zarga was clearly the best in the race. That Course Track sectional showcases her raw ability, and that should propel her to success soon, particularly if connections stick to this 10f trip.
She has no entries, but she would be one for maximum faith when she next runs.

HEREDIA

There is a big performance in this filly. She finished a slightly unlucky second to White Moonlight at Musselburgh on Saturday, and I believe that big performance may come at Royal Ascot next time out.
She was stepping back up in trip to a mile having finished second over six furlongs behind Azure Blue at Newmarket, and things did not go her way.
The Course Track sectionals tell us that the gallop was fair here, with a FSP of 105.58%. At a track where it pays to race prominently, Heredia was held up towards the rear plus found some trouble in running when trying to chase down the winner, who was better positioned throughout.
Heredia recorded a final three furlong split of 34.15s (she was eased down in the final furlong) with the winner slower at 34.36s. Heredia clearly did all her running to simply get into contention, and then had no more to give in the closing stages.
That is clear if you look at her individual splits compared to the winner. Below is a comparison of F5 and F6 for the better positioned White Moonlight, and Heredia.
F5: White Moonlight 11.14s.
F5: Heredia 11.06s.
F6: White Moonlight 11.39s.
F6: Heredia 11.16s.
Heredia was clearly unlucky, and probably should have won. She produced a career best when successful in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot last year, and that track suits her hold-up style.
A return to Ascot for the Duke Of Cambridge looks likely, and although that could potentially be a hot race, I have had a small each-way interest on her at the general 33-1 on offer.
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