The Verdict Extra: Just how good is the unbeaten Al Asifah?

The Verdict Extra: Just how good is the unbeaten Al Asifah?

By Angus McNae
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Racing TV presenter Angus McNae takes an in-depth look at Al Asifah's stunning Goodwood victory plus has some interesting thoughts on what trip may suit her best.
I was keen to cover the performance of Al Asifah in The Verdict this week but, given how impressively she won, I wanted to verify the data from the race to enable an accurate summary. That meant that I could not include her in the programme, but I am keen to deal with her performance here.
I am also keen on upgrading the performance of First Ruler in the other Listed race at Goodwood on Sunday.

Al Asifah

The visual impression created by Al Asifah in Listed Weatherbys / British EBF Agnes Keyser Fillies' Stakes at Goodwood on Sunday was spectacular. She thrashed her rivals by over six lengths and seemingly won with plenty in hand.
The Course Track sectionals are illuminating as to what happened in the race. The first thing to mention is the fact that this was a slowly run contest, with the winner producing a sustained burst of speed through the final four furlongs.
The opening fractions were pedestrian, with Course Track recording a Finishing Sped Percentage (FSP) for the winner of 114.65%. That steady early pace enabled every contender in the race to record an FSP higher than 100. In essence, all the runners were able to preserve their energy for a final dash to the line.
Al Asifah sprinted best and much more impressively than her rivals, and her individual numbers are excellent. She flew through the final three furlongs in 33.97s, compared to the runner-up who recorded 35.15s
The final four furlongs that she produced read as follows:
F7: 11.77s.
F8: 11.29s.
F9: 10.98s.
F10: 11.70s.
Those are impressive splits from this filly who clearly is blessed with plenty of speed, and has a sharp turn of foot. The visuals suggest she is ready for a big step up in grade, and the Juddmonte Irish Oaks (she will need supplementing), as well as the Arc, have been mentioned in dispatches.
I fully understand that interpretation of her performance, but the speed she showed here suggests to me that she may always be better at trips short of 12 furlongs.
Thady Gosden spoke about Al Asifah on Racing TV following her impressive Goodwood win
Equally, on both of her starts, she has not faced a strong gallop. Her debut win at Haydock came in a steadily run race (her FSP was 108.05%) and her victory at Goodwood was achieved in a race run at a crawl.
The data highlights her raw speed, and undoubted ability, but she has a question to answer, and that is can she produce a performance like this up in grade plus, more importantly, where the gallop is much stronger?
I see her as an ideal candidate for the Qatar Nassau Stakes where her main asset, which is speed, will be seen to much better effect than in staying contests. She is a hugely exciting prospect for this season.

First Ruler

The other Listed race at Goodwood on Sunday was won by Peripatetic, and First Ruler chased her home in second. However, I am not giving up on First Ruler who looked a shade reluctant when the pace quickened, but I believe he was rusty after following a three month absence plus got caught out by being held-up in a steadily run race.
Peripatetic received an easy lead, with David Egan judging the fractions perfectly from the front, and effectively stole the race. Peripatetic's FSP was 109.35%, which means she was 9.35% quicker in the final three furlongs than the rest of the race.
The first mile was a crawl, but David Egan quickened the pace sharply from four furlongs out (F9).
This injection of pace caught out First Ruler who was towards the rear of the field, and it was here that he looked to be going nowhere.
However, that is not he case. When the winner quickened in F9, she clocked an 11.17s furlong, with First Ruler recording 11.38s in the same furlong.
He wasn’t backing out of the race, he just didn't quicken as smartly as the winner who he had also given a head start to.
Through the final three furlongs, First Ruler was the fastest in the race (35.60s) compared to the winner who recorded 36.11s. Through each of the final three furlongs, he was the fastest in the race, too.
Here are his final three furlongs compared to Peripatetic:
Peripatetic: F10 - 11.51s
First Ruler: F10 - 11.38s
Peripatetic: F11 - 11.99s
First Ruler: F11 - 11.86s
Peripatetic: F12 - 12.61s
First Ruler: F12 - 12.36s
Although First Ruler looked to be reluctant, and laboured, when challenging, the figures certainly do not show that to be the case, and he may well be a bigger price next time out than he should be on account of these deceptive visuals.
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