The Flat Jockeys’ Championship: Who will be crowned king or queen?

It’s perhaps a risky business writing about the jockeys’ championship with this year’s race barely six weeks old – and it’s fair to say William Buick didn’t seem too impressed when asked about the topic by the intrepid Peter Naughton at Haydock last Thursday – but that’s mitigated by the fact that this season’s tussle looks particularly interesting and monitoring the performance of the principal contenders can add a positive dimension to the campaign - even at this early stage.

Here’s a closer look at five principal contenders, as well as an early prediction.

Rides: 179 Winners: 36 Odds: 7/4

Buick just missed out last year in a race which he says he really enjoyed. The numbers so far this campaign suggest he is very serious indeed about going one better this time.

Buick leads the standings currently with 36 winners and has ridden for a remarkable 56 different trainers so far this campaign. He rode for 24 different trainers in the opening month of last year’s race, compared to 41 this time – a 70% increase.

He also took 33% more rides during the first month of this campaign - 120 in total - and had over double the amount of outside rides than during the corresponding period last season. He partnered 13 winners from 88 runners not trained by Charlie Appleby this May.

Buick actually rode two less winners in the first month of this season compared to last year despite taking 30 more rides. However, a genuine champion jockey contender has always required quantity in numbers and it’s clear that Buick is going about this with some urgency. Those numbers have belatedly yielded the desired returns in the last week, with Buick partnering nine winners from 20 rides in the past five days.

Buick is the one rider among the principal contenders who has obviously changed his approach with a champion jockey tilt in mind. The momentum is clearly with him currently and he is the contender who could most obviously take a significant leap forward this year.

Winners: 33 Rides: 164 Odds: 5/4

The two-time champion ultimately repelled the strong challenge of Buick in cosy style last year, despite his late absence through Breeders’ Cup commitments. Murphy will be difficult to dethrone in his hat-trick bid despite mounting competition for his crown.

Since the start of May, Murphy has ridden 33 winners at a 20% strike-rate – the same ratio as his best-ever year back in 2019 – and that’s encouraging since he’s down on numbers compared to this time last year.

In the first month of this campaign, Murphy took 121 rides for 47 different trainers. But he had 187 rides for 61 different trainers last June when racing resumed – decreases of 35% and 23% respectively.

The champion jockey is still principally backed by Andrew Balding but his statistics read better so far this year despite taking less rides for the trainer. Murphy had 19 winners from 91 outside rides in the first month of the season (21%); it was 25 from 145 last June (17%).

Perhaps Murphy is playing a longer game this season; his numbers are down currently but, given his strong strike-rate, the lesser quantity has not proven a significant factor so far. He’s built a good platform and, bar injury and suspension, is very likely to be in the shake-up at the end of the campaign.

Winners: 30 Rides: 184 Odds: 10/1

Marquand only took his first rides of the season in Britain on April 23 and it’s notable that he’s had the most rides of any jockey so far this championship campaign. Despite the numbers, though, his season is one that promises to get better after spending another successful winter in Australia.

Marquand said it felt like the season was just getting going when landing a treble at Windsor a fortnight ago and he has ridden another Windsor treble as well as doubles at Chepstow and York last week.

His strike-rate of 16% is among the lowest of the big title contenders, but no less than 18 of his 30 winners have come in the last fortnight and at an excellent 27%.

Marquand has a wide support base to support his big number of rides, having ridden for 66 trainers so far this campaign. He’s also had plenty of rides for William Haggas (45), his principal backer. Given the consistently high strike-rate of that yard, Marquand could be armed with a potent blend for this season’s challenge.

Winners: 25 Rides: 141 Odds: 40/1

Tudhope gave Oisin Murphy something to think about in the race two seasons ago and picked up plenty of winners as the ‘go-to’ northern based jockey for fancied southern raiders, principally those trained by William Haggas and Sir Michael Stoute.

Tudhope is going along nicely this season and at a strong 18% strike-rate, but he has taken significantly less rides than Buick, Murphy and Marquand so far. He had just 81 rides in May this year – 31% less than the opening month of last season.

The greater accent on quality has reaped rewards so far, with 10 winners from 38 rides for trainers other than principal supporter David O’Meara. His total was only five from 66 in the first month of last year.

Tudhope is ticking along nicely, for all that the early numbers don’t hint at a genuine title challenge. Plenty would need to go right for him to maintain his current strong performance in relation to his relatively modest number of rides.

Winners: 22 Rides: 154 Odds: 8/1

Hollie Doyle has enjoyed a meteoric rise in recent seasons but such an upward trajectory can only be so steep for so long; arguably the rider’s biggest challenge is to maintain her brilliant level of success and that has been borne out in the opening weeks of this new title campaign.

Doyle has enjoyed a solid start with performance extremely similar to this time last season. Doyle’s 22 winners have come at a strike-rate of 15%; her ratio was 14% last month and 15% for the first month of last season. Archie Watson remains her principal backer, but the amount of rides and winners without him again makes very similar reading – 11 winners from 92 runners not trained by Watson in June last year, and 10 winners from 86 outside rides this year.

Doyle has also ridden for more trainers at this stage – 53 this year compared to 43 trainers last year. She can also ride at 8st – fully 6lb lower than her principal rivals in the title race.

There is a feeling that Doyle hasn’t been quite getting the returns she might have expected in the last few weeks, with eight placed efforts from 12 rides over the past five days. When things inevitably change she could be set for a rise up the standings.

While we don’t have an abundance of prices for this market – certainly at this stage - all of them have Murphy as favourite to retain his crown. The two-time champion has maintained high standards from less ammunition so far, but William Buick has clearly stated his title intent and given the early evidence so far should probably be favourite here.

Buick’s weight of rides in the first month of the campaign did not yield the returns that might have been expected, but he has now ridden nine winners from his last 20 rides and holds good momentum heading into Royal Ascot.

He has a big job for a big operation, but the weight of winners provided by Appleby will also aid his cause and Buick’s employers clearly have no issue with the amount of rides he’s taking for other trainers in support of his title ambitions. It’s a long season, but currently I’d have Buick at something like a shade of odds-on.

Marquand is the other interesting one and quotes of 10/1 just instinctively look a few points too big.

He has ridden eight winners in the past week and the last fortnight has been his best by some way in a campaign that really promises to get better. Essentially, the odds don’t reflect his ability in the saddle allied with the his amount of rides and the number of trainers he has ridden for so far.