The 2026 Cheltenham Festival: super stats and facts for day one

Andy Stephens considers five-year-old runners in the Arkle, mares in the Champion Hurdle plus horses wearing headgear in the Ultima and much more.  Click here for Free Cheltenham bets.

Nicky Henderson will seek to land his sixth Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 40 years after River Ceirog gave him his first victory in the race.

That 1986 edition was notable for being the first live televised race to be shown legitimately in licenced betting offices since they were legalised in 1960.

However, not many shouted the 40-1 winner home. He had been beaten in his first three starts over hurdles and there were far more obvious contenders among his 28 rivals.

Henderson’s other winners have been Flown (1992), Altior (2016), Shishkin (2020) and Constitution Hill (2022).

The blinkered Flown had only made his hurdling debut 17 days earlier, when winning the Dovecote at Kempton, but that did not stop him romping home at Cheltenham by ten lengths under Jamie Osborne.

Kopek Des Bordes became the first horse since Flown to win wearing headgear when successful in a hood last year. The 42 horses to wear headgear in the intervening years had all been beaten. 

Lulamba, runner-up in the Triumph last year, is a hot favourite to belatedly give the five-year-olds another success.

Half of the winners between 1998 and 2006 were from that age group courtesy of Champleve, Flagship Uberalles, Well Chief and Voy Por Ustedes. They might have had a fifth had Frozen Groom not fallen three out when moving well, in the lead, in the 2000 renewal, and Twist Magic was also bang in contention when departing in the closing stages in 2007.

The quartet who won were blessed with plenty of ability but also benefited from significant weight-for-age allowances, designed to compensate younger horses for their immaturity when taking on their elders.

Racing’s rulers grew uncomfortable and believed the scales had been tipped disproportionately in favour of the youngest runners. Consequently the weight-for-age allowance in the Arkle was scrapped in 2007.

Since then, only 11 five-year-olds have run in the race and all of them have been beaten, with Fakir D’Oudairies, the runner-up in 2020, faring best.

They have had several well-fancied contenders over that time, especially last year when Majborough went off 1-2 favourite. But he made costly errors and could finish only third.

Majborough was the first Triumph Hurdle winner since Made In Japan, in 2004, to go straight over fences. That horse finished eighth in the Arkle.

There were only five runners 12 months ago but there was no shortage of drama. Only The Night, the runner-up, traded at 1.3 in-running on Betfair, while Majborough touched 1.33. And the fourth, L’Eau Du Sud was matched at 1.5. The winner, Jango Baie, hit 299-1 before producing his unlikely late surge.

Irish-trained runners have scooped the past eight editions of the race but it would be wrong to assume they have triumphed through weight of numbers.

They have had 83 runners in the race during this time, whereas British trainers have been responsible for 82. Ireland enjoyed a 1-2-3-4 in 2023 and went one better when responsible for the first five home a year later.

It is a race that has taunted Willie Mullins. Since Clear Ripose trailed home thirteenth under David Casy in the 2006 renewal for him, the master trainer has had 24 more runners and they all have been beaten – including three successive favourites between 2021 and 2023.

His beaten market leaders famously include Gaelic Warrior, who had his first run for Mullins off a mark of 129 in 2022. Suggestions that the French recruit was a handicap snip led to him going off 13-8 but he was beaten a short head by Brazil, a Ballydoyle cast off. It will be of no consolation to those who backed Gaelic Warrior that his present ratings over hurdles and fences are 153 and 172 respectively.

The Naas novice hurdle won by Highland Crystal at Naas on Saturday (February 6) has yielded four winners in the past seven years.

Intriguingly, the past four winners all made their hurdling debuts between November 15 and November 27. Highland Crystal made her hurdling bow on November 13. 

Nine of the past 14 runnings of the Ultima have been won by a horse wearing some form of headgear (never a visor) at prices ranging between 15-2 and 28-1. On four occasions they’ve enjoyed a 1-2, and in 2016 a spectacular 1-2-3 (the Trifecta paid £2,025). 

In 2018, one of the two years they missed out, the visored Shantou Flyer was beaten a neck at 14-1. 

A total of 128 horses have worn headgear in the race since 2012. Meanwhile, 181 have worn none. If you’d put £10 on all those wearing headgear since 2012, you would be showing a profit of £55. Had you put £10 on all the horses without headgear, you would have lost £1,415. 

The Champion Hurdle was first run almost a century ago, but only seven mares have won it: African Star (1939), Dawn Run (1984), Flakey Dove (1994), Annie Power (2016), Epatante (2020), Honeysuckle (2021 & 2022) and Golden Ace (2025).

So, between 1927 and 2015 only three mares prevailed, yet five of the past ten renewals have been scooped by the female of the species, plus they had a 1-2 in 2022. 

What has changed?

For a long while the racing programme offered little incentive for owners to campaign fillies/mares in the National Hunt arena.

There was no specific programme for them and had to compete on level weights. Consequently, they were something of a novelty when appearing on a racecard. The introduction of a 5lb weights allowance for mares in the 1980s helped change the scenery a little and, soon after, Dawn Run became only the second of her sex to win the Champion Hurdle.

The weight allowance was increased to 7lb in 2004 and in recent years that has clearly been a factor. If they keep winning, then perhaps their allowance will be reviewed, much as it was for the five-year-olds in the Arkle.

When hot favourite Constitution Hill fell last year, having previously never been beaten under Rules, he was ending an incredible sequence for his trainer, Nicky Henderson, whose previous 101 runners at the meeting had not fallen, unseated or been brought down. He'd had no faller since Precious Cargo took a tumble in the novices’ handicap chase on the first day of the 2020 Festival.

Golden Ace cashed in and became the first winner since Jezki in 2014 to win despite being beaten earlier in the campaign. The previous ten winners before her – Faugheen (111), Annie Power (11), Buveur D’Air (111), Buveur D’Air (111), Espoir D’Allen (111), Epatante (11), Honeysuckle (11), Honeysuckle again (111), Constitution Hill (11) and State Man (111) all lined up having not been beaten that season.

No horses in this year’s line-up have had a blemish-free campaign, which is highly unusual. Thirty-one of the past 35 winners of the race won on their most recent start. Only The New Lion and Brighterdaysahead qualify on that count this year.

The head the betting but remember that last year's Trifecta paid £4,332 to a £1 stake.

Jagwar became the 12th successive winner to have a rating between 139 and 149 when taking the spoils last season. Seven of those have been novices or second-season chasers.

He is a leading fancy to win again at this year’s Festival, but the last Plate winner to return and win again at the Festival was Elfast, who won a second Plate back in 1997, having scooped it two years earlier.

Moreover, the past seven winners have since gained just one subsequent win over fences between them. 

This race has been tinkered with in recent years and this season, for the second time, it’s a handicap and open to professional jockeys.

Gordon Elliott had 15 runners in the National Hunt Chase in its former guise, having four winners and twice being responsible for the runner-up. His winners have been Chicago Grey (5-1), Cause Of Causes (8-1), Tiger Roll (16-1) and Ravenhill (12-1) so you would be showing a healthy profit if you had backed him blind.

And five years ago, he prepared Galvin, who won, and Escaria Ten, who was third, but they ran under the name of Denise Foster for well-documented reasons.

The best of his three runners last year was Will Do, who finished.