The 2024 Betfred Derby: guide to the runners and 14/1 tip

The build-up to this year’s Betfred has been quite like no other. 

Arabian Crown, and Hidden Law were all taking Trial winners but none will be in action at Epsom on Saturday. Arabian Crown is on the sidelines, Enonomics is being given more time, and, very sadly, Hidden Law is no longer with us.

We have ended up back where we started, with

City Of Troy

favourite despite his abject return in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and a potentially tricky draw in stall 1, although it has been no barrier to success for Oath and Adayar this century.

Is he going to prove a one-season wonder, or will he get back in the groove? And, if it's the latter, will he stay the distance?

Plenty are muttering negatives things about the premier Classic but City Of Troy alone provides us with a compelling storyline, especially with Aidan O'Brien's faith in him seemingly unshakeable. It's not just the horse's reputation on the line, as another blowout would lead us to perhaps be a little wary when O'Brien next hails a Ballydoyle superstar.

We should all surely rejoice at the the prospect of well-fancied runners trained by James Fanshawe and Roger Teal fighting out the finish of a £1.5 million race which, for a good while now, has been dominated by messrs O'Brien, Appleby, Stoute and Gosden. This could be the year of the underdog.

Here's a guide to the 16 runners for the 245th renewal. Fifteen owners have each paid £30,000 at the various entry stages, with Abdullah Al Mansoori paying out £75,000 to supplement Tabletalk on Monday. The final line-up was revealed on Thursday morning, with the draw for stalls made in Epsom town centre.

Trainer James Fanshawe. Official Rating: 111. Best odds: 6/1. 

He was any price you like for the Derby until routing the opposition in last month’s Lingfield Derby Trial. The Gleneagles colt was seriously impressive that afternoon, relishing stepping up to almost 1m 4f with his usual hood dispensed with. His wide winning margin would have been even greater had Callum Shepherd not eased down in the final strides. The time was slick – not far off a course record – and the form stacks up. Illinois, the runner-up, had gone close in Group One company at two; Meydaan, beaten about eight lengths in third, has since won the Cocked Hat at Goodwood; and the fourth, The Euphrates, had previously been runner-up in the Ballysax, while the seventh, Defiance, had been second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. There are niggles as he can be a little keen and his previous efforts hadn’t suggested that Lingfield performance was on the cards, but if he can reproduce what he showed last time then he must be in the mix. Shepherd (8/47 at Epsom) being replaced by Rab Havlin (5/86 at the track) is puzzling – not least because of the horse’s exuberance and Shepherd’s part in his education, but that’s a matter for The Gredley Family. One thing his owners will want is for the ground (described as good to soft on Thursday morning) to dry out as much as possible, given how effective he was on the fast terrain at Lingfield. 

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Official Rating: 115. Odds: 5/1. 

It will be a case of the wetter the better for Ancient Wisdom, a colt who is clearly very effective when there is give underfoot. The mud was flying when he won the Group One Futurity at Doncaster in the autumn, although he was arguably even more impressive when landing the Autumn Stakes on his penultimate start last term, when Ambiente Friendly was among those put in their place. Ancient Wisdom was a little underwhelming on his return, though, when beaten six lengths by Economics in the Dante, especially when you look at the horses who finished just behind him. Connections have insisted he needed that run but he’s had only 16 days to get up to full speed. And, of course, he’s by Dubawi, a fabulous stallion for much of the past two decades but, at the age of 22, still without a Derby winner to his name. Ancient Wisdom will jump from stall 11 and no Derby winner has been drawn there. Don't get hung up on that, though, because a record 11 winners have jumped from next door in stall 10!

Trainer: Andrew Balding. Official Rating: 104. Odds: 28/1. 

Andrew Balding has had big-priced runners make the frame in the Derby and bids to repeat the trick with Bellum Justum. He lost his maiden tag at the expense of Inisherin (sixth in the 2000 Guineas and a Group Two winner at the weekend) over a mile at Newmarket in late September and hit the ground running this term when landing the Blue Riband Trial from Defiance (disappointing since) at Epsom in late April. This will demand a huge amount more, though, and you have to travel back to 1939 to find the last Epsom Trial winner to go and win the big one. 

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Official Rating: 124. Odds: 11/4

Plenty hinges on which version of him turns up. Will it be the outstanding champion two-year-old of last season, or the one who completely fluffed his lines in the 2000 Guineas? Aidan O’Brien has partly blamed himself for his star colt’s dismal showing at Headquarters, suggesting he might have treated him with too much respect in the build-up. However, it’s difficult to believe he wasn’t fit enough to do himself justice or that his restless five seconds in the gates led to such a tame surrender. What we do know is that the horses who City Of Troy had thumped as a juvenile, such as Haatem and Alyanaabi, both figured in the finish. The fact O’Brien let him fly solo indicates he had been pleasing in the build-up – and given no hint that he may not have trained on – and his strong finishes in top company over 7f last year, coupled with his breeding, offers plenty of encouragement that he will stay the trip. O’Brien turned Auguste Rodin around 12 months ago after he had disappointed in the Guineas, so all is not lost for City Of Troy’s fan club. Eased out to 6/1 after his return, his odds have tumbled ever since with plenty seemingly happy to forgive him his lacklustre reappearance. He's drawn on the inside in 1.

Trainer: Adrian Murray. Official Rating: 106. Odds: 40/1. 

Amo Racing got a taste for the Derby when King Of Steel went so close 12 months ago and they have two runners this time. Dallas Star looks their No 1 after his shock 50/1 success in the Ballysax Stakes on heavy ground at Leopardstown, when having his first start for Adrian Murray. He put two O’Brien-trained runners in their place that day, although the time was nothing special and the form has been punctured. Dallas Star clearly copes well with testing conditions, so all those connected with him will be hoping for more rain. 

Trainer: Roger Teal. Official Rating: 113. Odds: 12/1. 

Epsom is flooding through his veins. His sire was Camelot, the 2012 Derby wiunner, and his dam’s sire was Australia, the 2014 Derby winner. And, of course, Australia was a son of Galileo (the 2001 Derby winner) out of Ouija Board (the 2004 Oaks winner). So, on paper, the premier Classic is a natural fit. It is seldom that simple, though, and Dancing Gemini has not looked a horse screaming out for middle distances. On the contrary, he’s flashed plenty of speed. His two wins as a juvenile came over 7f (impressive at Doncaster on the second occasion) with a mile on heavy ground seeming to stretch him in the Futurity Trophy. He put up a career best when runner-up on his return in the French 2000 Guineas at Longchamp, although that steadily-run contest was also more about speed than stamina. There’s little doubt he’s got big races in him, but it remains to be seen how much staying power he’s inherited from some of his illustrious relatives. 

Trainer: Owen Burrows. Official Rating: 109. Odds: 33/1. 

Owen Burrows and Jim Crowley were both positive about him after his spin around Epsom last week and he’s attracted support at big odds but I can’t erase the memory of when he was beaten at 1/5 at Chelmsford in late September. He looked a rogue that day, throwing the race away. Subsequently switched to Burrows, Deira Mile was a creditable fourth in the Futurity next time and he belatedly off the mark at Windsor on his return. However, he still carried his head a bit high (perhaps I’m just imagining that after his wayward antics at Chelmsford) and he’s not for me. 

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Official Rating: 103. Odds: 66/1. 

The £2 million Frankel colt got up close home on his sole start as a two-year-old, over a mile at Navan in the autumn, and has shaped well in his two starts this term without adding to his tally. He finished a length runner-up to in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown on his latest start and, as with the winner, you fancy the best is yet to come. It could be that he’s deployed as a pacemaker for better-fancied stablemates. He has made the running, albeit in tactical small-field races, on his past two starts. 

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden. Official Rating: 107. Odds: 100/1. 

He was a keeping-on third to Ancient Wisdom in the Futurity and began this term by making the most of a simple opportunity at Nottingham. The Dubawi colt then disappointed at Chester (slow away at the start, like at Doncaster) before also being well beaten in the Dante a week later, having made the running. He’s easy enough to overlook after those efforts although he is drawn 10, which has yielded the winner 11 times (including last year).

Trainer: Richard Hughes. Official Rating: --. Odds: 150/1. 

Represents a yard having a fine season but this is an ambitious project, as Kamboo hasn’t run this year and will be having his on first run turf, not to mention his first outing in the daylight. He confirmed the promise of his debut over a mile at Kempton in November when winning there over the same trip the following month from the eye-catching Sardinian Warrior, who has since won easily and is entered in the Coral-Eclipse. He’s got more to offer and this trip should be within his range, to judge by his pedigree, but a deep breath is required. 

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Official Rating: 111. Odds: 9/2. 

He’s one of only two unbeaten colts in the line-up (the other is Voyage) and has impressed in each of his three races (all under different jockeys) without posting the kind of performance that marks him down as something out of the ordinary. The Camelot colt showed a game attitude to prevail in a bunched finish of the Group One Criterium De Saint-Cloud in late October and he picked up from where he left off with another willing success in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown. The form looks ordinary with the next three home all finishing within hailing distance of him. But you can only beat what you are up against it and the good-looking Los Angeles just gives the impression he has a much bigger performance in him. If nothing else, stepping up to a mile and a half seems certain to suit him. 

Trainer: Ralph Beckett. Official Rating: 107. Odds: 14/1. 

He’s a likeable son of Sea The Stars with a profile that is not dissimilar to Westover, a luckless third for the same team in 2022. kept on when fourth in the in Royal Lodge last season and shaped well when runner-up to the smart Arabian Crown, who has since suffered a setback, in the Classic Trial at Sandown on his return. His stable was quiet at time but is now firing on all cylinders. He had a workout at Epsom last week and promises to stay, for all his breeding is a bit of a mix. It will be no surprise if he improves again and delivers a career-best here. His connections will have no grumbles with stall 8. Those of you who know your Shakespeare will know Macduff is the avenging hero in Macbeth.

Trainer: Dominic Ffrench Davis. Official Rating: 86. Odds: 150/1. 

The late, great Galileo is stuck on 99 individual Group One winners but it’s unlikely Mr Hampstead will be the one to bring up his century. Three runs have brought three defeat and, for all he’s shown promise, it will be a massive shock if he loses his maiden tag in the premier Classic. 

Trainer: Andrew Balding. Official Rating: 102. Odds: 150/1. 

He showed ability and a slightly iffy attitude in equal measure last season but has looked a more mature model this season, going close in Listed company at Newcastle before chasing home Caviar Heights in another Listed event at Newmarket. He should get the trip but his form falls some way short of the form required, even if you discount his latest conqueror since being thumped in the Dante. He's drawn 2 and since stalls were introduced in 1967 no winner has jumped from there.

Enjoy some magic days at the Derby

Trainer: Tom Clover. Official Rating --. Odds: 100/1.

Owner Abdullah Al Mansoori supplemented this Camelot colt for £75,000 on Monday, which tells you that either (a) he knows something we don't or (b) he's desperate to be at the party. Tabletalk built on the promise of his debut third at Kempton in December when landing a 1m2f contest at Chelmsford last time, but he's got a mountain to find on form (the Kempton runner-up has been beaten off a mark of 77 in a handicap and the Chelmsford third has since made it 0/6 with another defeat at Catterick). The owner is also represented by another outsider in Kamboo.

Trainer: Richard Hannon. Official Rating: --. Odds: 33/1. 

Made a good impression when winning a maiden on his debut over 1m 2f at Newbury, with connections resisting the Trials in order to "keep the dream alive". He's now in at the deep end and lack of experience has to be a worry, for all that he had a spin at Epsom last week. His wide draw is also a niggle.

The 245th running of the Derby revolves, to a large extent, around CITY OF TROY. He looked exceptional as a two-year-old but he ran lamentably on his return in the 2000 Guineas and, at the odds on offer, I’m happy to let him slide.

One who looks sure to give his running is MACDUFF, who wasn’t beaten far in the Royal Lodge on his final start last term and shaped well when chasing home Arabian Crown in the Classic Trial at Sandown at a time when his stable’s runners were needing the run.

I’m a big fan of the winner, who has since met with an untimely setback, and Macduff can take advantage of his absence. He delighted connections with his spin over a mile at Epsom last week (handled the track well) and the son of Sea The Stars, brilliant winner of the Derby in 2009, is open to plenty more improvement.

His profile is not dissimilar to Westover, a luckless third for the same team in 2022, and, like him, he’s a fine stamp of a horse.

AMBIENTE FRIENDLY was a revelation at Lingfield and must go well if he can reproduce that form, while LOS ANGELES should relish moving up in trip and will be hard to keep out of the frame. 

1 MACDUFF. 2 AMBIENTE FRIENDLY. 3 LOS ANGELES.