City Of Troy: ten key questions for the Derby favourite

That’s like getting a 90mph yorker first ball on a cricket pitch. Does anybody know? Will we ever know?

Aidan O’Brien stirred the pot with a couple of his own theories as the dust was settling on his star colt trailing home ninth of the 11 runners, beaten an aggregate of 17 lengths. 1 He had not prepared him properly. 2 He got flustered in the stalls and that led to his mind not being in the right place.

Both are difficult to fathom. O’Brien’s previous ten winners of the Guineas - King of Kings (1998), Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Footstepsinthesand (2005), George Washington (2006), Henrythenavigator (2008), Camelot (2012), Gleneagles (2015), Churchill (2017), Saxon Warrior (2018) and Magna Grecia (2019) - had all been making their seasonal reappearances and he’s trained almost 400 Group One winners. Is he really asking us to believe he wouldn’t have pushed enough buttons because he was in such awe of the horse? A video of working zestfully at during his preparation was published on X by Coolmore, with O’Brien clearly delighted with what he was watching as he zoomed along upsides in a car.

The stalls? He was last to enter them and was in the gates for just five seconds. Yes, he did a bit an ‘Ali Shuffle’ during that time, but he broke alertly and was soon up with the pace. Here’s a few possible reasons that O’Brien didn’t put forward: 

3. He hasn’t trained on. Ballydoyle is not immune to having one-season wonders and we are still learning how the progeny of Justify, his sire, develop. Some paddock watchers were unimpressed by his appearance and several noted that “he hasn’t grown much”. But the fact that O’Brien was content for him to go solo at Newmarket suggests he had no reservations about City Of Troy being able to pick up from where he left off. It was only the second time this century he had fielded one runner in the race, and he wasn’t short of other possible contenders in a stallion-making contest. 

4. He has a hidden issue. You can be certain that City Of Troy underwent plenty of prodding and probing after the Guineas, to satisfy connections there isn’t an underlying cause. But sometimes problems – especially the invisible mental ones - are not straightforward to detect. We need a bit more racecourse evidence here. 

5 The trainer’s runners had been hit and miss in the lead up to the Guineas. This is true. All six of O’Brien’s runners in Britain in April – including a couple of odds-on chances – had been beaten. But this follows a familiar pattern. Since 2006, O’Brien has run 75 horses in the UK during April and has had only four winners. It’s invariably a very different story from May onwards, including this year. He’s had four winners from 19 runners in Britain this month, with another nine making the frame. 

6 He threw in the towel. I’ve not seen anyone else suggest this, but don’t choke on your Cornflakes. One moment, City Of Troy was bowling along up with the pace and in the next he was finding nothing off the bridle and going backwards. The sectionals reveal only one other horse in the race was slower in the fourth furlong. It was a case of hero to zero at halfway. The only trouble with this theory is that he was such a relentless galloper as a two-year-old. Even when his races were over, he was ignoring inviting him to halt. But horses, just like people, can change, and amid all of O’Brien’s praise for City Of Troy there has been one caveat. He said on May 13: “What you can’t measure is mind and determination and that is the most important thing – horse or human. Do they really want it?” 

7 He simply had an off day. This was a stinker, more than an off day, but how often do we hear the phrase “they are not machines”. 

This is standard practice for O’Brien. He’s done similar for many years. He invariably deflects criticism of his horses by blaming himself or circumstances, such as when Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear both trailed home in the 2000 Guineas last year.  “The whole thing was a non-event,” was his general summary.

When Paddington suffered a surprise defeat in the Juddmonte International later in the summer, he said: “Maybe I pulled the elastic band too long.” And when Henry Longfellow tamely surrendered his unbeaten record in this month’s French 2000 Guineas, he said: “That was a tactical error on my behalf.” And, of course, he often gets his excuses in early by suggesting a certain race (even a big one) is “just a starting point”. 

Only on Sunday, he told us Opera Singer, the leading two-year-old filly of last season, was open to “massive improvement” after she had finished third on her return in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

Like a good snooker player, O’Brien is thinking five or six shots ahead. He knows the beautifully bred horses in his care are all prospective stallions or broodmares. Why give them a negative review, which could affect their value or appeal further down the line?

That said, the five-star reports for City of Troy have been something else. “I’m not sure we’ve ever sent a horse to The Derby with as much ability as this,” he has said. This from a man who has already had nine previous winners of the great race. 

Oh, yes. No question. You underestimate O’Brien at your peril.

We are all familiar with Auguste Rodin beating being beaten out of sight in the Guineas last year before reigning supreme at Epsom. Some folks are suggesting it’s a bad comparison, saying it was a different scenario with Auguste Rodin as he was racing on heavy ground. But that conveniently overlooks that his standout performance as a two-year-old came in bottomless conditions at Doncaster, and that a mile in testing ground should, theoretically, have suited him much better than the rest as it would bring his undoubted stamina into play.

And a couple of other O’Brien horses who completely flunked at Newmarket before rising from the ashes just a few weeks later have been overlooked.

In 2011, Roderic O’Connor only beat two home in the Guineas and was beaten 38 lengths. Yet three weeks later, he was transformed and won the Irish equivalent, completely turning the tables on Dubawi Gold, who had been runner-up at Newmarket.

A year later, Power went off second favourite for the Guineas at Newmarket but trailed home 17th of the 18 runners, beaten 37 lengths. Twenty-one days later, he had also been turned upside down and won the Irish equivalent, with his swing in form with Trumpet Major (fourth at Newmarket) being about 40 lengths. 

Ryan Moore waved the white flag long before the finish at Headquarters, sparing City Of Troy a tough time once it was clear he would not be winning. You could reasonably argue that others had much more demanding races in a contest run at a strong gallop.

Rosallion and Haatem finished second and third, but it hasn’t stopped them subsequently dominating the Irish 2000 Guineas.

When O’Brien entertained the media on May 13, nine days after Newmarket, he insisted: “Everything has been good since the Guineas. The plan was always to start there and go on to The Derby and then go wherever after that and that’s where we still are.” 

He has never won beyond seven furlongs and the last horse to win the Derby, having never won over further than that, was Workforce back in 2010. Workforce was slightly different, too, in that he raced only once as a two-year-old and had gone some way to proving his stamina reserves when runner-up in the Dante.

City Of Troy was strong at the finish in all his races in 2023, clocking some swift sectionals and overall times. It suggested he would stay a mile standing on his head, and that a mile and a quarter shouldn’t be much of an issue.

A mile and a half is a different story, though, especially as City Of Troy seems to adopt a policy of attack being the best form of his defence. His wins have been gained up near the pace, pulling rivals out of their comfort zones. Whether he can do that with the same efficiency over another five furlongs is a moot point, although don’t be surprised if different tactics are deployed.

His pedigree offers encouragement. His American (dirt) sire, Justify, the 2018 Kentucky Derby winner, was fully effective over 12 furlongs, while his dam, Together Forever, won the Fillies’ Mile at two and would have run well in the Oaks but for almost being knocked over about a furlong from home.

His auntie, Forever Together, won an Oaks, and his brother, Bertinelli (now known as Unbelievable in Hong Kong) stays the trip. So, on balance, the distance looks within range. 

City Of Troy handled the Dip well enough in the Dewhurst last year, which suggests he’s well-balanced and quick on his feet. He’s shown no tendency to hang or look awkward. There's nothing about him to suggest he won't cope with the various challenges that Epsom provides.

One of the reasons for Economics not running in the race is that the Dante winner is a hulk of a horse who may just have been all at sea on the track.

Keep in mind, too, that there is a replica Tattenham Corner at Ballydoyle, which was put in place decades ago. “Every horse [at Ballydoyle] canters around ‘Tattenham Corner’ every day and it’s repetition," O'Brien says. "What we have seen over the years is if a horse is not going to handle it today, very rarely will they handle it tomorrow. You’ll see very quickly the ones that have the ability and the balance to handle it.” 

Softish ground seems unlikely to be an issue, either. It was officially “soft” when he won the Dewhurst in commanding style, and good to soft when he motored home in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket before that. He has yet to run when the word “firm” has featured in the going description.

The biggest field this century is 18 and similar is on the cards. The likely big field will mean that luck in running may play a part. Things could get congested and space will be at a premium. But City Of Troy has always raced up near the pace. That means he may not be a hostage to fortune. 

The record-breaking trainer has five other entries to juggle, but suggested on Tuesday only Los Angeles and Euphoric would be joining City Of Troy in the line up.

The unbeaten Los Angeles has proved popular in the betting this week. He was a Group One winner two and made a winning return in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown. The official ratings suggest he’s 13lb inferior to City Of Troy, but it may not be that straightforward.

Diego Valazquez,  Illinois and Portland, also remain engaged, but it seems they will not be heading to the Surrey Downs

Yes. He might not even have a say in it. The colt has run four times and Moore has partnered him on each occasion.

Oddly, he hasn’t ridden Los Angeles in any of his three races. It seems likely Wayne Lordan, aboard him at Leopardstown last time, resumes the partnership.

Moore hasn’t ridden Euphoric, either, and you’d imagine Declan McDonagh, on board him at Leopardstown last time, is first in line for that ride.

Portland has already had five different riders, including James Doyle, while British-based jockeys at a loose end could find themselves getting a call up if there is a rethink about Diego Valazquez or Illinois taking part.

It looks like punters have already made their minds up in the past few days. Available at 6/1 after his Guineas run, City Of Troy had shrunk to as short as 7/4 last week, but has drifted out to 3/1 in the past 48 hours.

By contrast, his stablemate Los Angeles, available at 7/1 on Monday, is now no bigger than 9/2, and generally 7/2.

Ancient Wisdom’s odds have also contracted, with bettors clearly seduced by his penchant for soft ground. 

We are back where we started, with another 90mph yorker!

I was convinced he’d win the Guineas and my snap reaction was that his run was simply too bad to be true. There had to be something amiss. But no concrete explanation has emerged. We are left guessing (see No 1) as to what might have occurred.

Now, he has to bounce back, plus prove himself over a mile and a half. 

As with all bets, it comes down to price. I wouldn’t be surprised if City Of Troy takes the spoils, but will I regret not backing him if he does?

I can live with spurning a current best price of 3/1, but if he drifts out to 5/1 or bigger on the day (yes, I know plenty will view this as a negative!) then the temptation to run towards him, when others are running away, will be strong. 

Just make sure you watch what happens live on Racing TV at 4.30pm.