The 2019 Cheltenham Festival: Who will be crowned top trainer?

Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have won the Irish Independent Leading Trainer award between them for the past nine seasons and, despite Paul Nicholls’ best team for a few years, one of the trio will surely claim the prize once again this time.

Will Elliott land the hat-trick or can Festival legends Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins reassert the old order?

We take a closer look at each trainer’s chances ahead of the four-day bonanza at Cheltenham next month.

Trainer: Gordon Elliott.

Odds: 5-4.

Festival winners: 22.

Festival wins in past three years: 17.

Gordon Elliott has been crowned top trainer at the meeting for the past two seasons, and he has recorded over 60 per cent of his total Cheltenham Festival winners in that time.

He is very much the ascendant force here and, with around 50 runners, he will send his biggest team to the Festival to date.

While Elliott is no stranger to success in the level-weights races, his prowess in the handicaps is what separates him from Mullins and Henderson.

“If you’re not in, you can’t win” is one of the trainer’s catchphrases and he has around 65 individual horses entered across the ten handicaps which is double the amount that Henderson and Mullins have.

From last year’s 17 individual runners in the handicaps, he had three winners (17 per cent) and a further three placed (35 per cent win and place).

While he has seven favourites in the ante-post lists for next month’s Festival, this does not account for big chances and Grade One winners like Apple’s Jade, Battleoverdoyen and Delta Work.

On paper, Tiger Roll looks the likeliest winner at the meeting after Nicky Henderson’s Altior.

Trainer: Nicky Henderson.

Odds: 15-8.

Festival winners: 60.

Festival wins in past three years: 7.

Last crowned top trainer in 2012, Henderson has a strong team with Altior, the shortest-priced favourite at the meeting, along with Buveur D’Air, Ok Corral, Champ, Santini and Epatante among his team, although he does not have as many favourites as Elliott.

Henderson’s real strength this season has been in the novice hurdle division and all of his favourites are in the level-weights races.

His top trainer chances will likely hinge on close battles with other Elliott fancies in the Ballymore and RSA, with additional attention from Mullins in the Champion Hurdle.

The trainer has stated the recent equine flu outbreak has compromised his Festival preparations, which has not really been the case in Ireland despite quick ground this winter being a factor there.

Most of Henderson’s principal chances run during the first two days and his prospects will be much clearer at the halfway point.

With seven or eight winners being the winning average in recent years, he will need most things to go right for a genuine Irish Independent Leading Trainer bid.

Trainer: Willie Mullins.

Odds: 4-1.

Festival winners: 61.

Festival wins in past three years: 20.

No one has trained more Festival winners than Willie Mullins. Top trainer at five of the past eight meetings, he sent out a record-breaking eight winners in 2015 and can never be wholly discounted at Cheltenham despite the fact he looks up against it this year.

The Mullins team will be around a third down on recent years because of the dry winter in Ireland not allowing sufficient preparation for a number of horses. The trainer will have more runners in the handicaps, yet only eight of his 61 Festival winners (13 per cent) have been in these races.

Benie Des Dieux and Ballyward look the trainer’s best chances, while he a handful of contenders in the Gold Cup, although he is yet to record a win in that race.

Min, Footpad and Blue Sari also have chances, and the significant assistance of Ruby Walsh, so often brilliant at Cheltenham, should be factored into his top trainer prospects.

Currently, 14 favourites are with trainers other than Elliott, Henderson and Mullins. Paul Nicholls boasts his best team for a few years and Clan Des Obeaux, Grand Sancy, Getaway Trump, Give Me A Copper and Friend Or Foe make particular appeal.

Nicholls has a good spread across the four days and, after a fine season, the 20-1 slightly underestimates his chances.

While Le Richebourg will now miss the Festival, Joseph O’Brien still has one of the Irish ‘bankers’ in Sir Erec and boasts a fantastic hand in the Fred Winter.

Fakir D’oudairies would be a fascinating runner in the Supreme and the hunch is that the juvenile will run in the Festival opener.

While Paul Nicholls is of small interest at 33-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes, Gordon Elliott looks by far to have the most compelling claims and you could argue 5-4 underestimates his chances.

This market can heavily fluctuate at the close of each day and Elliott took a drift when drawing a blank on the first day last year, so perhaps a similar opportunity can arise this time.

With Apple’s Jade his real big hope in a competitive Champion Hurdle on day one, he could drift again before Battleoverdoyen, Delta Work, Tiger Roll, Envoi Allen and the Fred Winter and Coral Cup on the Wednesday.

While hard to be dogmatic at this point, Elliott at around 2-1 at the close of day one would appeal.