Boxing Day tips: Andy Stephens has a bet for all 11 meetings

The ten-year-old is already a five-time winner at Sedgefield and will be seeking to repeat his win of 12 months ago off the same mark with his regular rider, Tom Midgley, still able to claim 3lb. He merely made up the numbers on his return at Haydock this month but should make more of an impact back at his favourite stamping ground. 

I’m surprised he’s odds against as he was a decisive winner over course and distance on his debut in late October (the fourth and fifth have both been subsequent winners) before finishing a close third behind Old Park Star and Un Sens A La Vie at Kempton after flirting with victory between the last two flights. The winner has since bolted up at Cheltenham, while the runner-up has also gone one better. Timeform have Fortune Timmy 10lb clear top rated. 

This race invariably yields Triumph Hurdle clues and this edition is unlikely to be any different with  Narciso Has, prominent in the ante-post betting for that race, taken to advance his claims. The French recruit, trained by Willie Mullins, found Mange Tout 2¾ lengths too strong on his stable debut last time, but the smart winner was racefit and had the edge in the experience. Narciso Has, who traded odds-on after moving strongly, can build on that here. 

The grey was something of a revelation when pouncing from off the pace to win a strongly run 3m 3f handicap chase at Cheltenham last month. You can argue the leaders went off too fast and set things up for him but, equally, his effort needs a bit of marking up as his jumping was not as efficient as it can be (RaceiQ estimates he lost almost six lengths with his leaping). He’s gone up 5lb in the ratings but this looks a lesser race. 

Pilsdon Pen is in his element at Wincanton, with his form at the track reading 11211. He had little to spare when winning here this month, but he had been off almost eight months and his jumping was a little rusty. The step up to 3m 1f is a question mark – his wins here have been up to 2m 4f – but he’s often hinted that the extra yardage may even show him in a better light. 

This in-form mare arrives in great heart and seems sure to again be in the thick of the action. She's only had five races and has upped her game since being switched to handicaps and being upped in trip on her past two starts. The four-year-old made the Willie Mullins-trained Call You Back pull out the stops in a big field at Gowran on her penultimate start (the pair pulled clear and the winner has since again gone close) and lost out in a three-way photo finish at Tramore last time, when she stayed on well and could have done with a stronger gallop. The handicapper has more or less turned a blind eye, raising her just 1lb.

Leading hunter chaser Its On The Line returns here, but he fluffed his lines in this race 12 months ago and this is again likely to be a starting point. Con’s Rock has some way to go before reaching his level of form, but he’s impressed in his two races under Rules – beating Willitgoahead at Limerick this time a year ago (that horse went on to finish third at Cheltenham) before bolting up at Fairyhouse last month. He’s 7-1 to win at Cheltenham in March and can enhance his claims. 

Chuggy is cut from a different cloth than The New Lion, his half-brother and stablemate, but he’s developing into a useful novice chaser, reeling off successive wins at Uttoxeter and Warwick (twice) since the start of October. His latest rout at the latter venue, when making all, has led to another 11lb hike in the weights but he will again take plenty of pegging back, especially if jumping with the same exuberance. The RaceiQ data reveals he gained 17 lengths over his obstacles, and the Mildmay Course should play to his strengths. 

Sue Smith and Joel Parkinson combined to win the Lincolnshire National last year with O’Connell and look to have another ideal candidate in The Big Breac. He won a couple of long-distance staying novice hurdles about this time last year and has taken well to fences, winning over 3m at Wetherby before finishing a good third to Dom Of Mary and Zertakt (has since won at Cheltenham) over 3m 6f at Newcastle. The RaceiQ data tells us he jumped most efficiently in that race, gaining eight lengths, and there is surely more to come. 

Hint Of Humour has contributed to a landmark year for Tony Carroll, being first past the post in each of her past four races under William Carson. Her habit of winning by narrow margins has helped keep her a step ahead of the handicapper and she’s had her usual three-to-four week break in between runs. A 3lb rise for her latest success may not halt her purple patch. 

He has looked a different horse this season for the in-form Ben Pauling yard, making all for a 12-length win at Warwick on his return before breezing home off the same mark in similar style at Wetherby a week later. The handicapper has hit him with an 11lb rise but he won both races with any amount to spare and conditional jockey Elliott England, on board both time, again takes 7lb off. A feature of his victories has been his accurate jumping, with RaceiQ revealing he gained more than 13 lengths in the air last time despite again wanting to go out to his right. This track may show him in an even better light.