It’s a quiet Sunday afternoon this week but there are some decent bets to be found and I am hoping I have managed to dig them out.
Starting at Brighton and the obvious one in the Marathon Sportsbook Handicap at 2.30 is hat-trick seeker Buxted Dream. He showed not only that he is in the form of his life, but that he is well suited by this unique track when he ran down John Gallagher’s in-form gelding Bahamian Sunrise at the course 12 days ago to follow up his all the way maiden win at Lingfield.
However, it’s so obvious that he has a good chance that his price is plenty skinny enough - he was 6-4 in the morning and is now odds-on, and the value call is the well-handicapped Iseemist.
Having beaten just four horses home in her last three starts, trailing in a total of 29 lengths behind the winners of those races, and with a losing run stretching back to 2015, the case for Iseemist is much less obvious.
As a result the price on offer is much larger, and there is reason to believe she could bounce back to form this afternoon.
The key could be a combination of a falling handicap mark, now 2lbs lower than for her last win, the presence of a handy 5lbs claimer in Mitch Godwin, and perhaps most importantly, the return to a downhill and undulating sprint track.
John Gallagher’s mare has not run at such a venue since finishing a good second at Goodwood in early June off a 6lbs higher mark than she competes from on Sunday, a run which took her record at Brighton, Epsom and Goodwood to an impressive looking 1141420117202.
A drop in grade from recent assignments is another positive and she looks a good value bet to achieve what her stablemate could not do here last time and lower the colours of the in-form Buxted Dream.
In the 3.30 and I am hoping that Luca Cumani can enhance his impressive 41% strike-rate in recent seasons at Brighton as Kitty Boo is my fancy for the British Stallions Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap.
Although she remains a maiden after five starts, she has hit the frame on four occasions, there does not appear to be anything wrong with her attitude and I thought she looked a bit unlucky not to win when splitting a couple of in-form last time out winners at Newmarket.
That was a career-best effort from Kitty Boo, and I expect the return to a longer trip to see her show improved form again. Both the way she finished that race and stamina-laden distaff side of her pedigree suggests she will want at least this far to produce her best form.
A solid early pace should help her relax and she looks a good bet at a top priced 4-1.
Another trainer who enjoys a winner at Brighton is Gary Moore, and the local handler can hopefully strike with Milky Way in the totepool.com Handicap at 4.00.
Having made it to the track only five times in his career so far, the five-year-old son of Galileo must have had some issues since making a winning debut at Newbury in 2014 but two runs this season have suggested the ability is still there and he looks well capable of winning races off a mark of 74.
He shaped well at Goodwood in a race that has thrown up plenty of future winners on his return in June.
He then went going close in a race that has worked out extremely well at Newbury last time and having been freshened up following another short break since should arrive here in top form.
I rarely look at the jumping action over the summer, but I have taken enough notice to realise that James Bowen looks like a very promising rider, and his 7lb claim could be very valuable to the chances of Solstalla is Worcester’s Bet Totetrifecta At Betfred.Com Mares' Handicap Hurdle at 3.45.
Although below form last time, David Weston’s mare is generally very consistent and while the handicapper seems to have a hold of her, the same can be said of most of this field.
As a result, I expect that if she can run her usual honest race at a track where she has previous winning form, then the 7lbs relief she gets as a result of her young jockeys’ inexperience can tip the balance in her favour today.
Chris Dixon's Sunday tips: (Prices correct at 10am)
2.30 Brighton: Iseemist at 5-1 generally available
3.30 Brighton: Kitty Boo at 4-1 generally available
3.45 Worcester: Solstalla at 11-2
4.00 Brighton: Milky Way at 5-2 generally available