Ross Millar's horse racing tips for Monday: Dylan can delight
By Ross Millar
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
It was another great weekend of jumps racing.
Proper winter ground at Aintree saw James Bowen at his best as he won the Grand Sefton on the gallant Mac Tottie, while Brewin’upastorm looked a revelation when finally delivering on his potential as he sauntered to victory in the Betway Hurdle.
At Wincanton, quicker ground deprived us of the first sight of the enigmatic Goshen this season. However we were still treated to a master class in hurdling by the super Sceau Royal. What a delight he must be to own: hurdles, fences he can do it all.
Kempton and Carlisle host Mondays jump racing and I’ve got four selections.
1.35 Carlisle: Marta Des Mottes
Ross Millar
Finished: 2ndSP: 22/1
Last season was a breakthrough one for trainer Tom Symonds, with Llandinabo Lad and Song For Someone delivering high profile Saturday wins.
And this season he has already had the impressive Hereford winner, Moriko De Vassy, who looks capable of contesting some top novice hurdle races this season.
Marta Des Mottes arrived in Britain from France at the beginning of last season and was allotted a lofty rating of 132 as a result of two wins from just three starts in her homeland.
However, in admittedly high-class races, won by Herbiers and Tritonic she looked some way out of her depth despite often travelling well for long parts of each race.
The handicapper has now released his grip and in just three UK starts she has dropped 20lb to a mark of 112. She may well also show the benefit of a summer breathing operation.
At a double-figure price she looks value in what will be by some way the weakest race she’s contested on these shores.
3.10 Carlisle: If Not For Dylan
Ross Millar
Finished: 4thSP: 17/2
carlisle
13:55 Carlisle - Thursday October 14
If Not For Dylan was not beaten far on his penultimate start
Frenchy Du Large looks likely to be sent off a warm favourite for this but with a dry forecast predicted it’s unlikely that he will get the soft ground that has seen him produce his best form. It’s also worth noting that he was a withdrawal at Hereford last week on account of the quick ground.
If Not For Dylan has made a fairly inauspicious start to his chase career. He blundered away any chance he had at this track two starts ago four fences from home - in truth his jumping had been sketchy throughout - yet I was impressed by how he travelled and the tenacity he showed to stick on for fourth place.
At Ayr last time he jumped with much more fluidity and was travelling menacingly on the outside when slipping and all but coming down as he entered the home straight. With his chance gone, he was given a quiet ride home.
The winner of that race, Dorking Boy, and the third, Bollingerandkrug, are held in high regard by their respective trainers so I think all signs point to that being an above-average race for the grade.
Given that First Account has struggled when previously trying fences and that Uptown Harry would prefer more of a stamina test, I’m more than willing to put my faith in the unexposed If Not For Dylan.
3.30 Kempton: Alpha Carinae
Ross Millar
Finished: 3rdSP: 5/1
It’s already a much-overused line that Olly Murphy has his string in much better form this season, a strike rate of 40 per cent with 14 winners in the last fortnight providing cold hard fact to that theory.
I’d imagine there is very little joy to be found if you are a trainer of an under the weather string, but possibly the thought of well-handicapped horses for the following season is some consolation.
That is definitely playing out for the Murphy yard this season.
Alpha Carinae certainly has form in the book that suggests she’s capable of better than her current mark of 121.
She finished only a length-and-a-half behind the 127-rated Aggy With It when attempting to concede 6lb and also failed by just six lengths behind the 132-rated Dragon Bones off level weights.
A summer wind operation might also help her cause, as will the 3lb claim of jockey Fergus Gregory.
3.40 Carlisle: Fevertre
Ross Millar
Finished: 2ndSP: 3/1
Nicky Martin would be a far from a regular visitor to Carlisle and that immediately makes this gelding of interest, especially with there being ample similar opportunities closer to home.
His form when second in a point-point bumper reads well, given that the victor that day, Sun Hill Rising, has since finished a good second to the smart Martello Sky.
Three novice hurdle runs have followed where he has finished mid-division without being given an overly hard time.
Better was clearly expected in handicap at Ludlow last time, when he was sent off second favourite, only for his race to end at the third flight of hurdles.
Stepping up in trip looks a good move and he’ll also get the assistance of Grand Sefton-winning jockey James Bowen.
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