Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham: They just don't believe she is a Champion Hurdler

Having addressed staying chasers in the first of my festive trilogy, for the second I’m moving on to the two-mile chasers, including those who might range to intermediate trips and how the mares’ division is shaping up from a non-novice perspective. I will also address the established hurdlers over the full range of distances.

Part Three, later this week, addresses the novices and juveniles.

Picking up where I left off in the previous column – on the question of Fact To File’s Ryanair defence – some are building a case for Majborough to shoot down his comrade. The Closutton Order and their green-and-gold-hooped sometime allies would first need to share this widespread interpretation that the younger horse needs a longer trip to recover his reputation, of course.

Meanwhile, their stablemate Il Etait Temps – who binge-watched Slow Horses from the sofa over Christmas but is likely to return in the Clarence House later this month – heads the two-mile division on current-season form, although Marine Nationale’s eventful return in the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase suggested he won’t be giving up his Champion Chase crown without a fight.

That Grade One was won for the second year running by Solness, who to date has reserved his best form exclusively for Leopardstown – in this race and the DRF’s Dublin Chase. Aside from here making his seasonal debut as opposed to his seventh campaign start and with Sam Ewing deputising for concussed JJ Slevin, last week’s success was much like that of 12 months earlier.

As usual, Solness circled the outside line of the track – with all the advantages that confers, as discussed in the first column of this festive trio – and his habit of jumping right kept him there. He set a solid enough gallop, akin to 12 months ago, rather than the searching pace carved out on him by Danny Mullins last February, but the result was the same.

It might have been different had Sean Flanagan not become perilously unbalanced on landing at the second fence when, as Ruby outlined in our Christmas review show – he anticipated a mistake Marine Nationale did not make. Whilst correcting himself, Flanagan carried Only By Night right and would have fallen off had the mare and Keith Donoghue not blocked his descent.

Estimates vary on the impact of this incident on Marine Nationale’s performance. RaceiQ puts the ground conceded at as much as 15 lengths, yet the fact is he recovered swiftly enough to take off upsides the unaffected Captain Guinness at the very next fence and land ahead of him, suggesting the pace at that stage was tepid.

Equally, there’s no doubt the experience would have twisted his melon to some degree and certainly put him on the positional back foot whilst Solness controlled affairs up front, requiring a big effort to stay in touch as that rival hit the accelerator two out, thereby leaving less juice for their duel to the line.

In terms of race-readiness, I suspect the two principals were in similar places. Solness was clearly fit enough to defend his title, yet perhaps with a view to lining up a fresher horse at the Festival. The standing start likely compromised Slevin’s preferred pitch last March, but Cheltenham’s tightly turning left-handed Old Course is surely also at the opposite end of his mount’s suitability spectrum to Leopardstown.

A dual Festival winner, Marine Nationale has saved his season-best performance for that venue on each occasion he made it there. At Christmas, he was both fitter and more the developed article than 12 months earlier, when trainer Barry Connell was building up from a truncated novice-chasing campaign. He and his cavalier head carriage will be an even more potent threat to Solness next month, however.

Divested of earplugs and ridden more patiently, Majborough jumped less hairily than at Cork on seasonal debut, but I doubt anyone associated with him would volunteer to wear a heartrate monitor. In a field that tellingly lined up in the advantageous outer third of the chase track, he was positioned nearest the unfavoured inside and his habit of jumping left repeatedly lured him further towards those inner rocks.

Though probably booked for third after reaching for the last, he was squeezed out on the run-in as Marine Nationale initially edged right and Solness later leaned left. He was also too fizzy early without his earplugs, which would have left him with less gas to hold his position late on.

On the flipside, Majborough had also benefitted from a prep whereas the 1-2 had not – albeit it was also a quicker reappearance than his trainer likes as a rule to pursue. A more strongly run race would have enabled him to settle better – tactics for which stablemate Hercule Du Seuil was presumably entered to execute but instead he turned in a lifeless display. 

Having suggested Majborough for the Champion Chase in this space prior to Christmas, I was obviously disappointed he didn’t fare better. He was generally pushed out a couple of points afterwards but has been clipped again since. I don’t yet think it’s a forlorn hope that he gets his act together. There’s no sign yet that either of the World Stare-Out finalists is yet inclined to go up in trip. They’ve other irons in that fire, so I suspect he’ll get another shot in the Dublin Chase.

Found A Fifty has enjoyed a busy and productive couple of months, adding two Grade Two wins to his CV, and there wouldn’t have been a fitter horse in this Leopardstown field. Yet he failed to hit the frame for the fourth time in open Grade One company, surely cementing for Gordon Elliott the mooted plan to stay at home, pothunting below the highest level, instead of journeying him to Cheltenham or Aintree.

That might be the best-case scenario for fortunate 2024 Champion Chase winner Captain Guinness, a distant sixth here. Retirement is also a distinct possibility for the now-11-year-old, hounded by health issues during his career. That said, he finished off last term more convincingly than it began and has run some of his better races on Cheltenham’s Old Course, where the relative speed test over two miles suits him well. 

That Only By Night finished almost 27 lengths behind Marine Nationale in fifth has been taken as another measure of the latter’s achievement to finish a half-length second despite the early drama. The mare was certainly discombobulated, but whether it was caused by the interference, dislike of first-time cheekpieces, or something else, is hard to say. She also increasingly drifted left onto the disadvantageous inside sector, further setting back her cause.

Last season’s Arkle runner-up may well not be up to this level, but this was perhaps not the fairest hearing of her case. If she does come up short – which admittedly seems the likeliest answer – then she falls between a rock and a hard place, having hitherto shaped like a bang two-miler rather than in need of the extra half mile provided by the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase.

February’s Opera Hat Mares’ Chase is an obvious next port of call for her, given she’s unbeaten at Naas and gained a course-and-distance win over Champ Kiely there on seasonal bow.

She’ll likely there encounter titleholder Dinoblue, last seen bulldozing a chunk out of the final fence in the Grade Three John & Chich Fowler Mares’ Chase at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day when beating two lesser rivals as the 1-4 favourite. She is prone to these lapses of concentration and will need again to improve in the second half of this season to justify Festival favouritism.

Yet her level form even when winning there in 2025 (or at Naas and Punchestown either side) was not quite of the calibre reached by previous Cheltenham winners such as Impervious, the diminutive Elimay (when at her peak) and inaugural heroine Colreevy. So, even if getting back to her best, Dinoblue is vulnerable to an improver, exacerbated by her propensity to open the door wider via inattention.

Her year-younger stablemate Spindleberry is an obvious challenger. She extended to five her unbeaten run over fences when taking Doncaster’s Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares’ Chase just before the new year. Yet she, too, set hearts aflutter when crashing through the sixth last.

She had also been disconcertingly low at the opening obstacle which, like the sixth-last, is positioned immediately after a left-hand bend. The good news is she handled the fence where she started without incident, suggesting she can adapt. It’s worth noting she had previously only raced over obstacles on right-handed tracks under rules, albeit her sole point-to-point start – a narrow win – was at left-handed Dromahane.

Given this noteworthy evidence, it’s clearly helpful to Spindleberry’s prospects that the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase is conducted on the more galloping New Course which doesn’t involve a tricky post-bend obstacle, such as two out on the Old Course. Four out could be the most nervous moment for her supporters and is not so greatly worrisome by comparison.

In case you ever believed it would be different – I’m looking at you, Fearghal Eastwood, you dear, sweet dreamer – Mullins confirmed over Christmas he isn’t even contemplating six furlongs further and the rarefied air of the Gold Cup for this mare. The owner had imagined it would be relatively easy to convince the trainer to make an entry, but he was so baldly dismissive I fear she won’t make it to first base.

Immediately shaking his head when Racing TV’s Gary O’Brien enquired whether there was even a decision to make, Mullins said: “No, I don’t think there’s any point in going for the Gold Cup. Look at what horses are around for the Gold Cup. She’d have a stone to make up – and experience.” Asked whether she’d be a big player in the mares’ race, Mullins simply nodded and said: “Totally.”

Sorry, Fearghal.

At Doncaster, Telepathique took the race to Spindleberry but in doing so her jumping became overly forced and she lacked fluency. Nonetheless, this six-and-a-half-length second was a career best.

Meanwhile Paggane, who’d thrived under positive tactics at Carlisle and Market Rasen previously, was strangely held up and never quite got on terms with the principals. Returning to a left-handed track probably didn’t help her, however, as she adjusted right at most obstacles.

Hold-up tactics were also attempted on the winner’s travelling companion Fun Fun Fun, but they palpably backfired as she was well below her best and laboured.

Two days earlier at Kempton, Thistle Ask continued his relentless upward trajectory for his new yard when winning the Grade Two Desert Orchid limited handicap chase from a 10lb higher mark than his Haldon Gold Cup romp – again beating Saint Segal but by three lengths further. 

For this assertive success, he earned a new official rating of 158 – 43lb higher than when joining Dan Skelton – and a shot at the Clarence House, where he is set to meet not only Il Etait Temps but also, according to Nicky Henderson, Jonbon.

A bold bid at Ascot would not be out of the question, but his propensity to drift and jump left would be a big negative. Whilst he was able to justify favouritism at left-handed Wetherby in handicap company, it has been when racing the other way around that he’s convinced as a nascent graded performer. The Skeltons have already got L’Eau Du Sud put away for Cheltenham on March 11; perhaps they might be tempted by Punchestown in April for Thistle Ask?

Tidying up the Desert Orchid, Saint Segal – an improved model this term – found two miles at Kempton too sharp a test but still performed with credit. However, Boothill sadly looks a light of former days – unable to get involved and merely clinging on for third from an uncompetitive Sans Bruit. Seemingly improving Ryan’s Rocket, sent off favourite for this contest, was travelling well when attempting to hurdle the seventh fence and hitting the deck.

Finally for this section, an acknowledgement that Quilixios – who was still mixing it with Marine Nationale when crumpling at the final fence in the Queen Mother Champion Chase – had his comeback target revised from Leopardstown at Christmas to – hopefully – the Dublin Chase at the same venue next month.

Having been going well in November, he was reported by Henry de Bromhead last month to have had “a little setback”. Yet the trainer didn’t sound overly convinced that he’d make Cheltenham either: “We’ll aim for the Dublin Racing Festival and then try to get him to the Champion Chase.”

Unaccustomed though the Closutton Order is to communicating with the outside world, by the brethren’s standards they’re being pretty damn explicit about Lossiemouth. To the confoundment of those of us bound by Earthly concerns, they do not believe she is a Champion Hurdler. Repeat: they do not believe she is a Champion Hurdler.

Take Mullins in the Racing TV interview with O’Brien, cited above with reference to Spindleberry, in which the trainer strikes a staccato tone and begins by inadvertently making the word “good” sound like a minor slight.

“She’s a good mare,” he said. “Did her job well. Funny sort of a race, with Anzadam running away halfway through the race. That left Paul [Townend, Lossiemouth’s rider] with a bit of a quandary, but then again, he relied on her staying power, her stamina. He just said: ‘Well, I’m not in the wrong place, anyhow.’”

Invited to compare Lossiemouth with the best mares associated with his and his father Paddy’s name – Dawn Run, Annie Power and (cough) Quevega – Mullins said she was “right up there” before checking she has indeed already won nine Grade Ones to date and admitting: “I never dreamt she’d won that many.” He then added: “She’s only six, so there are lots of races for her to compete in and win more. She’s becoming a little bit of a legend in her own right.”

But that doesn’t mean a legend over two miles on the Old Course at Cheltenham in March – and that’s the disputed territory. On RTÉ earlier that day, after she won a second Irish Grade One at the minimum trip, Mullins had reportedly declined to commit Lossiemouth to the Champion Hurdle – an abstention which Ruby Walsh interpreted in our Christmas review show.

“He said he was making no comment,” Ruby summarised. “It means he won’t be pushed into a decision, and he will see what happens back here at the DRF. If Brighterdaysahead improves and goes and beats Lossiemouth at the DRF, she’ll be heading back to the Mares’ Hurdle. Or if she blows Brighterdaysahead away here at the DRF, she may well run in the Champion Hurdle.

“But he’s not committing because when you commit you have to do a U-turn. When you don’t commit, you’ve never made the decision.”

Now, take Townend. Asked post-race by O’Brien whether he believes Lossiemouth to be “just about the best there is around there”, her rider said: “You’d be a brave man to say she couldn’t win a Champion Hurdle. You know, she’s winning Grade Ones at two miles and it’ll certainly have to be looked at.

“But she enjoys the other race there as well, and it’s nice to be in the winner’s enclosure, and to have her to look forward to. So, look, we’ll enjoy today for sure after a long week of it. We’ll worry about that when the time comes. Them decisions usually make themselves.”

The decision is fundamentally the same as it was 12 months ago. Closutton believes the Mares’ Hurdle is a bird in the hand; they have zero inclination to risk losing her in the shrubbery.

Last season, Lossiemouth would have needed convincingly to depose State Man in the domestic pecking order. Even though Closutton clearly agreed with public analysis he wasn’t performing at his best – he wore first-time cheekpieces at Cheltenham – they still deemed him intrinsically more suitable for that target. Plus, he had no other option whereas she did. An easier one.

This time, the mare has no team leader to depose. With poor State Man suffering a serious injury at home, Anzadam behaving as if his tail is on fire, Irancy having already proved he’s not up to this grade even before getting outpaced at halfway at Leopardstown and Salvator Mundi unhappily dispatched to novice-chasing, she is definitive top dog.

Yet among those who know her best, there’s still something holding them back from declaring her a putative Champion Hurdler – and the yard have trained four different ones, including a mare with the 7lb allowance up her sleeve.

The clues as to why are surely: her lack of pace against Constitution Hill in Kempton’s 2024 Christmas Hurdle, Townend carefully keeping her at maximum revs in the Morgiana, concerns about Leopardstown’s inner-most configuration on a good-to-soft surface last week and their vocalised confidence in the asset of her stamina.

Then there’s also the not-so-small matter of Sir Gino, whom Closutton would have watched swaggering around Kempton on his return from injury and a life-threatening infection three days earlier. Ruby identified him as the “big bar” to Lossiemouth having a shot at the Champion Hurdle when I suggested events could yet collude to propel her in that direction.

Do those events merely equate to thumping Brighterdaysahead in the Irish Champion Hurdle? Even were that to be so, what would it change? Lossiemouth might have to beat her wherever she goes at Cheltenham and there’d still be Sir Gino on the first day.

In short, she’s 4-1 for the main event and 5-2 for the Mares’ Hurdle, second favourite in both. If she runs in the latter, she should and would be favourite. Yet her trainer and jockey are as good as telling us it would take something remarkable for them to believe the 4-1 shot is the better play. 

“Willie Mullins will run Lossiemouth where he thinks she can win. He doesn’t believe in participating,” Ruby concluded. And that means even if the Closutton Order is required to watch the Champion Hurdle from the sidelines, or merely with a joker (such as Anzadam) in play.

To deal with the likelihood of the December Hurdle placings being reversed in February, one interpretation says the runner-up surely lacked the race-fitness of the winner, having pulled muscles when schooling over fences in November and making a belated return to action here. The other says Gordon Elliott’s team were also running off their faces all Christmas, so how much improvement is there really?

Jack Kennedy’s switch on Brighterdayshead, from the inside rail passing the stands after the first hurdle to Lossiemouth’s outer flank, was instrumental in creating the daylight Anzadam rushed to fill. After Patrick Mullins’ mount blew the race apart with a heady combination of refusing to settle and jumping too well, landing upsides the winner at the fifth and forcing his rider to press on, Townend was left – in his own words – “trying to cover all bases”. 

“I wasn’t aware of how much [Anzadam] had done behind [me] but he jumped so quick past me and got lengths,” Townend recounted. “I know his level of ability, too. I couldn’t let him out of sight like he was a no-hoper, so I just thought I was in front plenty soon enough then… But when Lossie heard [Brighterdayshead] coming, she was always pulling out enough to keep her behind us.”

Kennedy had asked long and received two out, Brighterdayshead reaching for the hurdle and landing it, thereby keeping herself in the game as Lossiemouth continued to press on the gas entering the home turn and soon headed Anzadam in the straight. The runner-up chased hard and got to within a length of the winner but to my eye was getting no nearer for the final nine or so strides. Townend believes his mount had been idling in front.

What might the Elliott team do differently next month? One answer is to replicate the aggressive tactics deployed when Brighterdaysahead and her wingman King Of Kingsfield downed (a below par) State Man in spectacular fashion over the same course and distance in December 2024. Of course, that could again risk leaving her Festival behind at the same track on a different month.

You could say she’s twice been below her best at the Festival, so is it a good idea to prioritise that as her primary target? I’d argue only when never going in last term’s Champion Hurdle was she truly off her game at Cheltenham, however. When finishing second in the previous year’s Dawn Run, she’d failed to settle in a steadily run race that didn’t play to her strengths as much as it did a certain Golden Ace.

Did that mare go on to do much? Anyone know?

Another dynamic at play is the Irish trainers’ championship and the prestige of the domestic Champion Hurdle. After Christmas full of good tidings for the team at Cullentra, they ended the week c.€700,000 ahead of Closutton in the trainers’ championship and Elliott declared his intention to have a proper stab at the DRF rather than Leaving It To Jesus - or in this case, Willie.

Yet a more conventional approach might be deemed sufficient, trusting that a fitter and sharper Brighterdaysahead is equal to a length’s disparity. In short, I can’t yet call it. Spotting pace-making options for the mare at the Irish Champion Hurdle entry stage will be the first clue.

What I am sure of is that Kennedy will adopt a position in front of Lossiemouth rather than behind her, as he did last week when conceding match practice. He’ll want to dictate the pace rather than the other way around, attempting to draw out her sting rather than try to outmatch her turn of foot.

Many are anticipating the form being reversed but I’m not so sure. In essence, I think the two mares aren’t that far apart in ability, but there’s something a bit Goldilocks about Brighterdaysahead. Her grey rival doesn’t need everything just right. She’s simply more straightforward, adaptable and reliable. As Townend said: “She turns up every day, doesn’t she?”

Interestingly, a strongly run 2m4f is something Lossiemouth is yet to encounter and the re-siting of the Mares’ Hurdle to the Thursday of the Festival and therefore switching to the New Course – subtly differentiating the race that little bit more from the Champion Hurdle, a welcome move – only adds to its stamina demands.

Of course, Brighterdaysahead’s thoroughly likeable stablemate Wodhooh – incumbent ante-post favourite for the David Nicholson – has twice won over that course and distance, including an authoritative success in last year’s 24-runner Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap.

When ultimately beaten almost three lengths after a good tussle with Lossiemouth in the Aintree Hurdle, Wodhooh would have preferred a strongly run race – albeit the pair got racing further out than ideal due to Townend ushering Constitution Hill into a dead-end and seeking to take advantage three out, meaning it became a drag race late on.

Wodhooh maintained her unbeaten record below Grade One level over hurdles when winning the 2m4f Kerrymount Mares’ Hurdle earlier on the same Leopardstown card last week, despite giving her supporters more of a fright than in a deeper race against the boys at Ascot previously.

That it developed into a sprint wouldn’t have helped, plus consistent runner-up Feet Of A Dancer jumped particularly well once taking over on the lead and found plenty in front, making the question harder. Yet answer it, Wodhooh did, as usual.

That scenario did seem to resolve Elliott against the Champion Hurdle, however, in case anyone else was ever contemplating that notion. Back in fourth, the issue-plagued and inconsistent Sixandahalf failed to see out her race even in these circumstances.

Returning to tidy up the December Hurdle, afterwards Willie Mullins mused on further changing the tactics on Anzadam. Having held him up in the Fighting Fifth, when he travelled strongly until after the second last but found less than looked likely, the plan had been to sit more forward at Leopardstown – just not that forward. Instead, the horse made a futile break for freedom.

“When Anzadam was able to take off with Patrick – and he’s one of the strongest jockeys going – it just shows how difficult a ride he is,” Mullins said.

“He’s very difficult at home all the time. We’d normally have settled him in behind but there was no point settling him behind the other four runners because they were probably vying for place money. He would have been too far out of the race, so he had to settle him in behind the other two. Patrick said they just split up and left too much daylight going down the back.

“And he was just jumping so well. He was probably the best jumper in the race. Do we try different tactics again the next day? Maybe be more forward on him? So, we’ll see what we can do.”

So, maybe an attempt will be made to teach Anzadam to settle in front in the Irish Champion Hurdle, utilising the asset of his jumping, giving Brighterdayshead a lead without need of a stablemate and leaving Lossiemouth to pounce last? I’m already looking forward to this re-match, however the hell it pans out. What a shame Anzadam is a fruit-and-nutcase. He has many of the right talents for a Champion Hurdle, but not necessarily in the right order.

Props to Brighterdaysahead’s stablemate Casheldale Lad, who was dropped in trip but set out to make the running as usual before being swamped for pace by Anzadam. Unflustered once headed, he kept within hailing distance with a good jump at the second last, railed like a bunny into the straight and – despite landing a tad unbalanced at the last – rallied to grab third. He needs to step back up in distance and can win a decent prize at a grade below the best.

On his first run since sustaining a hairline fracture to his pelvis when being aimed at the Ebor, Hello Neighbour shaped with distinct promise in fifth. He was still going fine when declining to join the mares in giving chase to Anzadam three out but made some headway after the next. However, Donoghue soon opted for discretion as the better part of valour. His mount remains on a mark of 148 and will be interesting in something like the William Hill at Newbury or the County Hurdle itself.

Rewind three days and Sir Gino’s impressive return to action in effect locked Nicky Henderson into the Unibet Champion Hurdle this season – a scenario envisaged in the second column of this series – rather than heading for the Champion Chase with just one novice run over fences to his name or rushing to cram in next month’s Game Spirit. Yet the ghost of a dilemma did exist here for Seven Barrows.

Defeating the reigning Champion Hurdler without breaking sweat, even if the speed test of two miles at Kempton is probably not Golden Ace’s bag, is a strong first card to lay down. By rights, though, Sir Gino should be chasing – the manner of his victory in last term’s Grade Two Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase on debut and the way he jumps a hurdle tells you that.

In his post-race interview with Rishi Persad on Racing TV, Henderson referenced the opinion of his aide-de-camp. “Charlie Morlock, who’s with me day in day out, says [Sir Gino] is wasted not going chasing because he’s such a brilliant jumper of a fence,” the trainer said. “But he's still very young… He’ll be six in a week… He's a young horse. You know you could look at it one way and say 'Well you can afford to stay over hurdles for this campaign'.”

The dust having settled since Kempton, Henderson has become more certain. “I think it’ll probably be the Champion Hurdle,” he told the Racing Post. “He could go to the Unibet Hurdle or straight to the Festival.”

(By “Unibet Hurdle”, he of course means the Bula on Trials Day at Cheltenham. It works my nerves enough that this race was officially renamed the – meh – International, for reasons that were never cogent, without a Unibet-sponsored trainer calling a graded race solely by that sponsor’s name. We’ve been here before with 32Red and the Stewards’ Cup, among bookmakers’ other disservices to the history of the sport and fans’ ability to navigate the calendar. Just stop it.)

Sir Gino was keen to get on with it on Boxing Day and, under restraint, gave two of the first three flights quite a bit of air. At the fourth, he slowed, fiddled and landed flat-footedly but then Nico de Boinville let him have his head and, although his mount still made a shape in the air more like a chaser than a hurdler, he was a lot better. 

“He was just too fresh, to be honest with you,” Henderson observed. “It took Nico and myself a bit by surprise that he was going to race like that, but he was just enjoying himself. You’d normally ride him for the speed he’s got – he has got a lot of speed – and you’d hang on to him and wait because he has got a gear. So, [we] haven’t even used [his talents] in the proper way, but it didn’t seem to make a lot of difference.”

So, the upshot is that Sir Gino is the likeliest Champion Hurdle winner – indeed his presence might propel his main threats elsewhere – but connections are somewhat relying on his large ability rather than a particular aptitude for the discipline at hand. That makes him a tad short, to my mind. The fact he can be ridden adaptably is a counter balance, however.

Sadly, it seems unlikely William Munny will be posing him any problems. I mentioned at the time I didn’t like the equivocation of Barry Connell’s language when ’fessing up to ongoing issues with the horse in early December. Just before Christmas, he admitting to all but abandoning plans of making Cheltenham, let alone the DRF.

“We’re struggling with him. He had a muscle tear in his hind quarters and it’s not healing as quickly as we would like,” he admitted. “We think we’re going to struggle to get him to Cheltenham. I don’t think we’re going to get a prep run into him. I don’t want to rule it out 100 per cent, but he hasn’t been under a saddle for three weeks and it would probably be a push to get him to Cheltenham.

“We should have a good chance of getting him back for Punchestown. It would be nice to get one run into him this year at open level. It’s a soft-tissue injury and it will repair 100 per cent. It’s just the timing of it that’s terrible… I am erring on the side of being cautious by saying it’s unlikely we’re going to make Cheltenham. But we’ll make every effort to get him to Punchestown.”

The Mullins-trained El Fabiolo did indeed make the switch from chasing, as predicted in the opening column of the series. Whilst his return over 2m3f on New Year’s Eve at Punchestown had less of the John Sergeant about it than his recent chase appearances, I wouldn’t yet call him the Darcy Bussell of hurdling.

His relative anonymity, and the option of switching down from fences, meant connections were permitted to press on with his career, despite him having fallen on three of his last four starts. He instantly reproduced the level of form shown as a novice against the likes of Jonbon, not needing to bring his far-superior chasing chops – completion permitting – to register a comfortable victory.

If I wasn’t familiar with El Fabiolo’s back catalogue – featuring a complete lack of self-preservation – I’d be heaping praise on that slick flick two out when, after he’d enjoyed a long solo lead under Danny Mullins from the outset, Darragh O’Keeffe ranged up on their outer flank with Ballyadam. Because it’s him, I suspect he just guessed spectacularly right. Hopefully, I’m wrong about that.

Willie Mullins has wisely suggested the winner will be kept to the smaller obstacles for now, with the Aintree Hurdle identified as a potential primary target perhaps via the Irish Champion or Red Mills. Those are two very different stopovers. I’d be all-in on the latter.

Ballyadam, who’d won a tepid three-runner version of this race 12 months earlier, was fit from the Flat yet weakened markedly in the straight. Yes, he’d been the only rival who attempted to lay a half a glove on El Fabiolo, but that notion was brief. Yes, he made a mistake at the last and given he’s twice hit the frame in the Coral Cup, I’m sure that’s the target but he’s 11 years of age now.

Having unseated independently (or perhaps distractedly) amid the final-flight drama of the Hatton’s Grace when last seen, Glen Kiln confirmed the improvement he’d shown until unseating after the last when set to win a Grade Three at Tipperary in October. Here, he repelled the rallying Spillane’s Tower by a head for second.

In early November, when the latter had just been beaten at short odds in a handicap hurdle at Naas, trainer Jimmy Mangan observed: “He’s just not a hurdler. He never was and he jumps hurdles the same way he jumps fences and makes a proper shape over them... A lot of my good horses never won a hurdle race but were a different horse altogether when they saw a fence. I would say this fella is the same.”

He’s not wrong, despite the persistence with hurdles and this being an improved effort on paper. Check out how carefully Spillane’s Tower negotiated the last three flights in particular, Mark Walsh consistently having to roust him along on landing to get him back into gear. It then won’t surprise you to learn Mangan got knocked out in an early round of the World Stare-Out Championships. You suspect JP McManus and Frank Berry might have Aintree on their collective minds.

Back in fourth, former decent handicap hurdler Shoot First is on the long comeback trail from two X-rated falls last year and confirmed the hint of hope he’d previously flickered at Clonmel. He needs much more of a test, however.

Fifth-placed Lantry Lady finished fourth in the 2024 Mares’ Hurdle on merely her third start but hasn’t matched that form since. She has twice tried fences and doesn’t look a natural – even if she was unfortunate to slither on landing at Gowran last time – and was utterly laboured here. Breaks between races suggest she’s difficult to train and it’s hard to know what ability she retains

So much for Teahupoo being best fresh andneeding plenty of cut. Elliott has since suggested frugal campaigning has made him the horse he now is, but that’s easy to say and impossible to prove. The reality is last week’s Christmas Hurdle win – on ‘good’ ground according to times and exactly four weeks after his narrow Hatton’s Grace success – was his best yet.

If Romeo Coolio pulling it out of the fire in the Racing Post Novices’ Chase (to be discussed in my third Christmas column, published later this week) was the most encouraging result for the future at Cullentra, this was their flagship success of a shock-and-awe week. Based on demeanour and wide promulgation of the fact their numerical tally was better this Christmas than last, I’d say the Closutton Order was rattled.

Leopardstown’s Christmas Hurdle was billed as a rematch of the Hatton’s Grace with Team Ballyburn arguing he would have got past Teahupoo with a stronger pace and less traffic and the winner’s camp maintaining he would improve for stepping back up in trip whereas his challenger had stamina to prove – especially with that bull-in-a-china-shop demeanour.

The latter argument proved the more accurate of the two, although Ballyburn surely lost the race even before he set foot on the track. Uncooperative would be an understatement. I saw him twice refuse to leave the saddling area, wilfully engaging reverse despite the attempts of two handlers to persuade him into the paddock.

In the end, poor Mystical Power was hooked out of the parade ring to nursemaid his stablemate through the preliminaries. This may or may not have related to that horse exiting the paddock in a sweaty, agitated mess. Having shaped a lot better in the Hatton’s Grace himself, his jumping then lacked fluency and he finished legless, his stamina for three miles looking increasingly unlikely.

As for Ballyburn, this pre-race behaviour was apparently not a one-off as he’d reportedly put up a similar performance at Fairyhouse on seasonal debut. In this race, he affected his trademark low head carriage initially but started to look laboured, his jumping unravelling, from a relatively early stage and before stamina became the question. A shrink might have to be his next target.

Meanwhile, Teahupoo just got on with it. Afterwards, Kennedy confessed he wasn’t sure how well his mount was going early but the longer the race went on, the better he got. Having moved smoothly into second behind front-running Rocky’s Diamond – who was delighted to see every hurdle, rather than a fence, until the second last – before taking over on the home turn.

Bob Olinger came out of the pack to chase him home, having been anchored in last by Darragh O’Keeffe. Waited with behind rivals travelling less well, he had to make a big effort to bridge the gap to the leaders from the second last, where getting in close hadn’t helped matters. He stayed on for a clear second, never positioned to get closer than seven lengths to the winner.

On seasonal debut and at a track that doesn’t suit as well as Cheltenham’s New Course, this was a striking return from the reigning Stayers’ Hurdle champion. Still available at 10/1 compared with Teahupoo’s scarcely available 2/1 best, that disparity is too big. The only doubt in my mind is the fact Bob is now 11 years of age, and all good things must come to an end. Yet Sire Du Berlais managed it at that age just three years ago.

At Leopardstown, Kennedy blamed himself for getting Teahupoo beaten by Bob last March, calling it “probably not one of my finest hours in the saddle” but adding he’d “learned from that, too”. I’ll be interested to find out what he meant by that.

If, as discussed with Ruby in our Christmas round-up show, Kennedy meant he should have pressed on sooner to draw the stamina out of Bob Olinger, I’m hearing self-flagellatory 20-20 hindsight. The hurdles track on the New Course consistently punishes those who get racing too early and the winner had been broadly unconsidered as a realistic contender in the run-up to the race. Kennedy is a brilliant jockey but he’s not clairvoyant.

Indeed, the threats this time around might be more plentiful – another reason why 2/1 looks skinny for a horse attempting to reprise a 1986 Crimson Embers (who did it aged 11, Bob) and regain his lost crown. Just before Christmas, Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle produced two credible contenders in the winner Impose Toi and third – Teahupoo’s stable companion – Honesty Policy.

I’m discounting runner-up Strong Leader – who’s running more consistently well this season and did his best to make that Grade One a proper test of stamina when taking up the running four out – only because Cheltenham’s New Course has the equal and opposite effect on him compared with Bob.

Judging by what he’s said on the subject, his trainer Olly Murphy thinks that, too, but plans to give Strong Leader one last chance there in the Cleeve later this month. But the Liverpool Hurdle, which he won in 2024 and finished second to Hiddenvalley Lake in last year - is clearly, rightly, his main target.

I can make an argument for either of the McManus-owned Long Walk duo, however. The market prefers Honesty Policy, the younger horse who can be expected to improve for his seasonal debut. He has instantly picked up from a progressive novice-hurdling campaign last season by proving his stamina for three miles at Ascot and the ability to handle open Grade One company.

Having been fizzy and fresh early, he got in close to the second last and didn’t land running, thus conceding the advantage to the 1-2. Yet he rallied inexorably without coming under maximum pressure.

Elliott has already indicated his Festival preparation will be The Teahupoo Method #1 – straight there. That does make me wonder whether he’ll be a shade underdone in experience terms, as indeed Teahupoo was (among other things that went wrong) first time up.

I’m quite keen on the characterful winner Impose Toi, who only does the minimum required. He’s improving – readily maintaining superiority over Strong Leader on 6lb worse terms at Ascot – and is proven at Cheltenham – well, the Old Course at least. Now, he does idle in front – a trait said about Teahupoo that I struggle to see – and I think there’s a lot more under the bonnet.

Tidying up those in the backwash of the two festive staying Grade Ones, despite Joseph O’Brien’s yard being in red-hot form all week and the application of a first-time visor, Home By The Lee could only plug on late and was even repelled by Ballyburn for third.

The Lismullen Hurdle slog might have done for The Yellow Clay for the time being – he and Jetara ran poorly, as did the winner at Navan, Colonel Mustard, on paper in the Long Walk albeit his performance was complicated by failing to stay three miles. Ascot fourth Potters Charm again ran well without quite proving his stamina or class for the task. Fifth-placed Doddiethegreat is a lover, not a fighter, and surely will have his sights lowered again.

Finally for this section, the Relkeel Hurdle: it looked a one-sided affair on paper and in reality, it was even more so, with the upwardly mobile Kabral Du Mathanbossing a collection of chasing refugees, some with their eyes on other prizes.

The winner completed a near-flawless round of jumping, the only blot when getting the fifth wrong – dragging his hind legs through it after possibly being distracted by Gowel Road reaching long (and making it, bless him) immediately ahead of him.

Team Twiston perhaps have the Pertemps more on their mind for the latter than a solid defence of last year’s Cleeve title. I base this guess on him tracing an inside line during his Cheltenham run in November, an unlikely foray over fences next time and swiftly accepting his medicine here. He would still need to qualify, however.

By contrast, winning trainer Dan Skelton is disinclined to target the Festival, preferring Fontwell’s National Spirit and then Aintree. “We will enter in the Stayers’ in the meantime, just in case we feel differently and just in case the race takes a different shape,” he updated Racing TV’s Josh Stacey at Sandown last Saturday after initially opening the door wider to the Festival in the immediate aftermath of the Relkeel.

“Given his tender age and the way he races – he races very enthusiastically – we don’t want to turn up in the Stayers’ and give him a really hard race, get to the bottom of him at that age and find maybe some horses don’t come back from such a gruelling experience.

“Next year, when he is another year older, you have to submit them to more questions but I think we can make up into that horse rather than just turn up first time over three miles in a Stayers’ against Teahupoo and say ‘We’re as knowledgeable and as hardened as you’, because we’re not. We’re going to take the sensible option unless something odd happens.”

Relkeel runner-up Jingko Blue jumped like he didn’t want to leave the ground, repeatedly ignoring James Bowen’s directions. I wonder if something is causing him physical discomfort? His tail also went from stirring to flashing when receiving reminders after the last.

Stablemate Lucky Place, who lacked aptitude for chasing even though he scoped dirty after his first attempt, ran no more than respectably in the event he won last year when on the improve. Kamsinas was probably unable to get involved whereas sadly The Real Whacker looked utterly disinterested. Patrick Neville might be minded to try the Cross-Country Chase, which should suit.

Advised 28/11/25: William Munny at 12/1 (10/1 also acceptable) for the Unibet Champion Hurdle [likely non-runner according to trainer]

Advised 21/12/25: Majborough at 6/1 for the BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase with the sponsors, William Hill or Bet365

If not now, when?