Road To Cheltenham: Does State Man's setback change the picture?

Welcome aboard for the jumps season proper. This is the train ultimately bound for Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown via other principal stations. It is a weekly stopping service and even takes requests. Right now, it seems an awful long way from here to there, but in retrospect it will pass like a flash.

So, gather up your personal belongings – as opposed to your impersonal ones – and no loitering in the vestibule area. If you see something that doesn’t look right, speak to the onboard team or text the show via the hashtag #RoadToCheltenham. See it, say it, watch Ruby dismiss it. Thank you for travelling with us.

I was all set to argue most horses quoted at less than 33/1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle would likely be non-player characters on the day, instead featuring solely to create this division’s immersive season-long experience.

Sadly, the formerly metronomic coulda-woulda-shoulda dual titleholder State Man – broadly a 6/1 shot to regain his crown – has been denied either role after sadly sustaining a serious tendon injury on the gallops on Wednesday morning and having been ruled out for the season by trainer Willie Mullins. I do hope Paul Townend’s favourite horse is not too severely injured and can make a good recovery – for a happy retirement at the very least.

Even in his unfortunate absence, triply fortunate titleholder Golden Ace scarcely limbos under 33/1. She began the season with a flop, beaten in a mares’ match at Wetherby prior to scoping dirty. That afterwards she doubled in price to defend her title suggests she might be underestimated in suitable circumstances at some point this season, when she recovers from whatever ails her. Unexpectedly, she’s been entered in the Fighting Fifth a fortnight on Saturday.

She underpinned the (attainable) form of her 25/1 Cheltenham shock at Punchestown in May, even if her near-five-length defeat by State Man contextualised their relative merits when both horses stand up. What consistency her conqueror cobbled together via cheekpieces on his final two starts was around 5lb below his previous consistent best, too.

His auld rival Constitution Hill – who’d shockingly crashed out at the fifth at Cheltenham, whilst the chasing-bound Cheltophobe Brighterdayshead was also playing her role in body only – will be nine if lining up next March. Only Hurricane Fly in 2013 and Rooster Booster ten years earlier have managed to win hurdling’s principal crown at that advanced age in the 21st century.

As one of the best hurdlers of all time, Constitution Hill had further to fall in ratings terms. How classically tragic that his forté – his famously low trajectory – became his fatal flaw. At first described as complacent and latterly as severely lacking in confidence, this once utterly dominant hurdler failed to complete two of his last three outings.

After falling at Cheltenham and Aintree, he was reluctant to start at Punchestown and ballooned the first, plainly telegraphing that he didn’t fancy the job. Under pressure from three out, he thankfully guessed right enough two out before James Bowen – riding him for the first time in public – wisely eased off. Padded hurdles have taken some of the rap for Constitution Hill’s implosion, even though the traditional versions were in place for his (regretfully overdue) first overseas trip.

Bone-scanned from head to toe during the off-season, he was found to have no physical issues. Reportedly ahead of schedule for his Fighting Fifth return at the end of this month, he has suffered the ignominy of attending remedial lessons in jumping in the Seven Barrows indoor school – albeit he practised over (very) baby fences prior to Punchestown, too.

Clearly, Nicky Henderson is not to be underestimated in bringing horses from the brink, even if not quite back to their brilliant best – think Sprinter Sacre or See You Then – but those were predominantly physical problems whereas this seems to be between the ears. A phoenix-like return would warm the cockles but is too much of a stretch for punting porpoises.

Yet it was only last December when Constitution Hill cruised through the Christmas Hurdle – albeit finishing in mildly unconvincing fashion – whilst Lossiemouth was at full gas from the outset before keeping on gamely.

Afterwards, it slowly became apparent the Closutton Order was merely humouring those who continued to entertain the mare as a potential Champion Hurdler, despite that target having been billed as the two-year plan. The clear message was that she is intrinsically inferior to State Man.

Now her stablemate has sadly exited the stage, the Perennial Lossiemouth Question will be raised again. It’s worth noting Mullins had been talking about replicating last year’s campaign – meaning the Mares’ and Aintree Hurdles but, interestingly, also taking on the boys in the Christmas Hurdle again.

“I think we’ll be readier for Kempton this year and probably go back and have another crack at the Christmas Hurdle,” Mullins said. “I’m very happy with her this autumn. It’s hard to think she’ll improve but if she can put up the same performances as she did last year, she’ll be hard to beat.”

Regarding the mare and the main event, does the State Man news broaden their thinking? With that campaign on record, they don’t need to decide until declaration time (natch) – albeit the Christmas Hurdle could yet be swapped out for a domestic target if they lack reserves. But they might not.

The market says step forward, Anzadam – and given he’s unbeaten in four starts, it would. His trainer had been shaping to stick to the shallow end with this five-year-old last season even before “a little injury” intervened, but has recently said he “looks to have enough potential to go down the Champion Hurdle route”. Clearly, that’s to be weighed with respect from a trainer who’s won the race five times with four different horses since the turn of the century.

Hence Anzadam’s Fighting Fifth entry, alongside strong-travelling stablemate Kargese – for whom a stiffer test over 2m4f for Cheltenham’s newly sited Mares’ Hurdle is no good, incidentally. If he wins a deep final version of that Grade One, he surely assumes the role of chief Closutton pretender.

It’s worth noting the ride with Anzadam could be bumpy, however. “There’s been little bits of bother with him but this year everything has been good,” Mullins said last month. “He has the ability but sometimes his training schedule gets interrupted.” This is not something he has ever said about Lossiemouth or (until now) State Man. Anzadam might merely be immature; equally, he could be fragile.

The market claims there are further Closutton alternatives, briefly addressed here in decreasing order of casting likelihood:

Besides Anzadam (or Salvator Mundi), that leaves just two. The New Lion is best-priced 4/1 favourite to graduate in the hoofprints of Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Faugheen by winning the Baring Bingham (currently going under the moniker of the Turners Novices’ Hurdle) en-route to the Champion. Not since 2014 and that last-named hurdling idol has this double been successfully landed.

A two-mile hurdling campaign looks the logical step for The New Lion, given he travels strongly and jumps with more than a hint of courageous efficiency – witness his final leap at Cheltenham. Developments over the next few days will be fascinating to watch play out, with him slated to take on Constitution Hill and others who are race-fit at Newcastle. Surely Anzadam quietly heads for the Morgiana now, Vincent O’Brien-eclipsing third British trainers’ championship or not? (Unless Salvator Mundi really does come off the bench?)

Finally – and most interestingly from a betting perspective – there is William Munny. A raw, late-developer, he looked at home with a high-class pace when second in last term’s Supreme. Both the overall time and sectional breakdown of that event versus the Champion Hurdle pays a large compliment to the principal novice protagonists.

After a sedate first quarter, the pace set by Workahead and closely attended by ultimate third Romeo Coolio lifted and continued to outstrip the Champion throughout, slowing towards the finish but not as markedly as among their more decorated rivals.

Of the trio to impress in those circumstances, only the runner-up is sticking to hurdling. Winner Kopek Des Bordes is due to make his novice-chasing debut at Navan this Saturday whilst third-placed Romeo Coolio made a convincing start in that discipline at Down Royal last month. Having initially talked of heading that same way, William Munny’s trainer Barry Connell has changed his mind.

“We’ve kept him hurdling because our thinking was it’s quite an open picture this year,” he said. “The New Lion is favourite for the Champion Hurdle and he’s only rated 3lb higher than us and is coming back in trip. Two Grade One winners came out of the Supreme after it, in Salvator Mundi and Irancy.

“I think [the Champion is] probably the right way to go. We haven’t done much jumping over fences with him, but I don’t think that would be an issue either.”

Now, we all speak fluent Connell but these days his burgeoning achievements mean his large statements land with greater impact. For what it’s worth, William Munny boasts less scope for fencing than either novice he split at Cheltenham, but his powerful way of travelling and increasingly slick jumping suggest he has a decent chance of emulating Buveur D’Air, Binocular, Hors La Loi III and Granville Again by upgrading Supreme silver or bronze to Champion gold.

The drawback in betting terms is he’s just suffered “a bit of a setback”, meaning he misses what would have been a clash with State Man in the Morgiana, a race that will now be wholly reimagined by the Closutton Order. “We’ll have him back for Christmas,” says Connell, presumably meaning the Neville Hotels Hurdle (formerly the Matheson). Let’s see. Next move Mullins.

For the first time in four seasons, I’m allowing for the possibility that Galopin Des Champs might not be the best staying chaser in training by the end of the season. 

Stop press: ten-year-old in potentially not-at-peak-of-career shock. 

(Whilst you’re reeling from that revelation, I should mention that Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton are competitive and Nigel Twiston-Davies loves duffle coats but dislikes interviews.)

Yet not long after 4pm on Friday 14 March 2025, the deposition of Europe’s preeminent chaser already seemed fact. Inothewayurthinkin had brushed him aside approaching the last at Cheltenham and powered six lengths clear. The winner was seven, the chief vanquished two years older, and three successive Gold Cups are harder than they look. It’s the way of things.

Then came the Punchestown Gold Cup, where Galopin Des Champs had twice previously been beaten – you may be aware, dear reader, frustratingly so from this perspective. This time, Hallelujah Be Praised, Paul Townend bounced out with intent, led from start to finish, and the result was his mount’s most relentlessly invulnerable success of the season.

Indeed, Timeform rated it 1lb better than the Gold Cup winner. (By contrast, it’s only fair to note that Racing Post Ratings have Galopin’s Savill Chase win as his peak effort last term and position Inothewayurthinkin’s Gold Cup 1lb superior.)

Yet not only did this victory take place at Punchestown – chorus: which he doesn’t like – but it was also on (time-based) good ground – chorus: he needs it heavy, he’s vulnerable on good-to-soft. For the record, according to times this was the quickest ground Galopin Des Champs has encountered in his career. Yet, again according to Timeform, he’s only exceeded this level of performance three times (on good-to-soft, soft and heavy) in his life. In short, spent force he is not.

However, there are two new factors – aside from the inevitable march of time – to consider on his behalf this season. The first has already been acknowledged by Willie Mullins.

“If I can get him to the John Durkan [at Punchestown on 23 November] I will, but I’m not sure I’ll be able to get him there,” he has admitted. “He’s just had that little hold-up and would need to hit everything right to make it. I’m not going to press him hard to get him there and one less run this time won’t be any harm to him if it turns out that way, but after that I’d like to keep to his schedule.

“I know he’s nine going ten, but I think that’s still young enough. Something like Leopardstown at Christmas [Savills Chase] would be a starting point if he missed Punchestown or we could turn around and go down to Tramore [Savills New Year’s Day Chase]. There are options for him. He seems fine now, but I did miss a few days with him. If Punchestown happens, it happens.”

At first, I had a sense of déjà-vu all over again because this time last year Mullins also said of this horse that he’d sustained “a small issue” during his pre-season training, causing him to have “missed a couple of weeks last month”.

However, the vibe clearly is that this season’s “hold-up” is more significant than last season’s “small issue” if Mullins is already allowing for a Tramore fallback option, albeit Galopin’s age might also be influencing his thinking. This horse also tends to need his first run back – though admittedly at a trip well short of his best the last twice – so his pre-Festival state of play might be less discernible than usual come January at least.

The second factor is the manner of his Gold Cup defeat and his trainer’s gut reaction. “He was never travelling. When he jumped off, the plan was to be in the first two or three – even make the running – and when he couldn’t do that down to the first, I said this horse is not enjoying himself,” Mullins said minutes later.

“He just wasn’t jumping… I was hoping something might come up beside him… and get him racing but he was never letting himself down to gallop or jump properly… Ground becomes more relevant to them as they get older. He’s a big unit and maybe landing on that ground, he didn’t want to. When a horse balloons [a fence] it means he doesn’t want to land, because he’s just going up in the air hoping he’s going to stay up there all day…

“You ask yourself would you put cheekpieces or something on him? I never have thought he’d need them before – in the beginning we were trying to rein him back, but… horses get older… and they might need a bit of help.”

Mullins’ live-thinking on camera, particularly in the immediate aftermath of a race, is always fascinating to hear. He tells you a lot more than people seem to think – a bit like a post-race Ryan Moore, if you listen carefully (and, naturally, if you can actually get Moore ton camera).

Mullins’ instant analysis of the Gold Cup survives its repeated replay and reflects what I was thinking at the time, along with other members of the RTV team on the day at Cheltenham. After two fences, we – Nick Luck, Jane Mangan, Martin Dixon and I – said it out loud to each other. Jane broke our silence with: “He’s not travelling.” I had been busy hoping my eyes were deceiving me.

The question is: why? His subsequent Punchestown performance suggests the ground wasn’t the primary factor, even though this seemed a reasonable conclusion at the time. As far as I am aware, no problem emerged, and was resolved, between Cheltenham and Punchestown.

More likely it would now appear he simply had an off day because this was plainly a case of him being unable to attain the prominent early position his rider had sought. (And clearly this was an off day by his own rarefied standards, rather than a poor run. You must turn the clock back to a Grade Two Limerick novices’ hurdle in December 2020, when he was pulled up as the Evens favourite and admittedly over two miles, to find a bona fide poor run.)

But if Galopin can have an off day at the age of nine, he can have another. Therefore, I wouldn’t be betting against those cheekpieces come March.

As for his opposition, as a seven-year-old who improved with every start prior to posting his first properly top-class performance at Cheltenham, Inothewayurthinkin is in the ascendancy. Strange to recall he was being held back for the National until Fact To File was redirected to the Ryanair after twice failing to land a blow on Galopin at Leopardstown. Mullins still hankers after making the latter horse a Gold Cup candidate, but that’s his factory setting.

Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior have been mentioned for the King George, but if Galopin doesn’t make Leopardstown at Christmas perhaps they’ll be separated? The latter has the inferior Leopardstown record. Above all – like Patrick Mullins, I read – I find him interesting as a Gold Cup prospect.

Nick Rockett and I Am Maximus seem to be set on the Grand National beat once again, even if the Gold Cup has been mentioned in passing. Lecky Watson – least fancied of the Closutton quartet in the Brown Advisory – has been damned with faint praise. He “could go going down the Gold Cup route, given the way he handled the track and the occasion” at the 2025 Festival, but “the Grand National is also an option as he’s a good, steady jumper and stays all day”. Ouch.

More interesting – and trained in Britain, by goodness – are Haiti Couleurs, the highly progressive winner of the NH Chase and Irish National who’s already made a winning return over hurdles, and The Jukebox Man, who looked a cracking King George prospect when winning the Kauto Star over the same course and distance last December until “an injury” brought his season a premature halt. He is set to reappear at Ascot on Saturday week.