Road To Cheltenham: King George and Savills Chase analysis

The festive period often generates a feeling of nostalgia, and the current ante-post market for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup certainly captures that throwback mood. Truly, we are reliving the 1980s.

Fear of annihilation at the hands of the Russians and casual racism are already back in vogue, but now it’s 6-1 the field for the blue riband of staying chasing, too! Whatever next? Gordon Elliott donning baby-pink legwarmers, Nico de Boinville speed-solving Rubik’s Cubes between races and Harry Cobden rocking up in a Sinclair C5?

Absorbing though Kempton’s Ladbrokes King George VI and Leopardstown’s Savills Chase undoubtedly, in Festival terms, resolved little – hence the market’s confused look. Where I think we can all agree, however, is this makes for strong, contrary opinions between now and the second week of March.

Bookmakers still prefer the Savills Chase components over those hailing from the King George, presumably due to the former’s known capacity for the task ahead. But what if that’s a weakness? Titleholder Inothewayurthinkin somehow remains favourite after running a stinker – of which the market appeared to have a good whiff beforehand – whereas dual previous winner Galopin Des Champs is considered to have performed appropriately in the circumstances.

In our traditional Road To Cheltenham / Let’s Talk Racing mash-up (watch the full show below) Andrew Blair White cited examples of why repeat performances in the Gold Cup are the exception rather than the rule. Josh Stacey also asserted “it’s difficult to really love a horse and really get behind a horse that’s a Gold Cup winner – or in any division – when you’re not exactly sure how they’re going to be and it’s all about simply one day in March”. Both points are worth considering further.

Certainly, Inothewayurthinkin regressed from his uncompetitive return in the John Durkan, rather than taking the step forward most were anticipating at Leopardstown. Expectation clearly varied in the eye of the beholder, however.

When I spoke to Gavin Cromwell at Cheltenham’s December meeting, I noted a distinct sense of prevarication in his words – as highlighted in my pre-Christmas column.

Then speaking to the Racing Post on 18 December, the trainer gave his most upbeat public assessment I can find, asserting he “wouldn’t rule out” beating Galopin Des Champs. Given that rival was returning from a setback for a belated seasonal debut and has tended to improve for the run, perhaps this was not the resounding vote of confidence some heard it to be?

When Savills Chase day dawned, Leopardstown racecourse posted an Instagram video of Cromwell saying: “He’s sharper now than he was, so hopefully he can be competitive.” Yet he had struck a distinctly downbeat note in the Post that morning, stating: “He’ll have to step forward an awful lot from Punchestown to win here.” Collectively, these were not the words of a trainer who believed his horse was the one to beat.

So, when Inothewayurthinkin opened at 5-1 on-course and drifted to 13-2 at the off – rather than vying for favouritism, as he had in the Savills ante-post market when camp confidence was perhaps higher – was this an affrontery of a drift or the correction of an initial overestimation, with some public bandwagonry second-guessing a cute ownership operation thrown in?

You can surely argue the horse would have traded much shorter than 13-2 had the market merely believed he would be “competitive”, but Cromwell’s post-race disappointment was palpable and consistent with his stated expectations prior to it.

“He never travelled at all and didn’t show any spark at all,” he told Gary O’Brien on Racing TV on the day. “He jumped like that as well. It’s too bad to be true, we’ll get him home and get him checked out. He should have at least travelled well.” 

Three days later, on the Nick Luck Daily podcast, Cromwell reported: “He’s quiet in himself and I think that kind of sums up his run. He just raced very flat, never picked up the bit at all… We’ve done all the usual checks, we’ve gone through them and we’re just waiting on final blood results back. There’s nothing obvious at all, I don’t know if there’s something underlying…

“I was happy with the run in the John Durkan... He jumped well and raced with enthusiasm, even though he was flat to the boards, whereas he didn’t at Leopardstown. He didn’t show any enthusiasm at all, and his jumping was very sticky. Up in trip he should [have been] well able to jump a lot slicker [but] everything was an effort to him. He just didn’t show up at all…

“We just don’t know the reason for that but hopefully we’ll get to the bottom of it. The main thing is he’s sound and hopefully we’ll bounce back from it. We’ll get him freshened up and the DRF is his obvious next race provided he’s OK.”

If you’re feeling burned by this complex series of events – the inner workings of which we will probably never fully know – my sense is you’re not alone. Yet whatever your position on the extent of the drift and perceived reasons for it, it’s hard to disagree with Josh’s view that Inothewayurthinkin is a difficult horse for fans to love.

His pre-Kim Muir campaign was explicitly target-driven, resulting in prohibitively short Festival odds. Last term, he played Grand National okey-cokey – Cromwell’s consistently non-committal comments at odds with shortening odds – prior to being supplemented for the Gold Cup, after which the trainer spoke with tempered hope. We all know what happened next.

Winning that race makes you public property in a way few others do, so scrutiny of this horse has inevitably increased a notch or three. Fans also want champions to behave like champions – a role Galopin Des Champs has been capable of embracing but to which many lesser horses, even winners of the Gold Cup, were not and are not equal.

It’s widely assumed the current Gold Cup incumbent is a greater-spotted version of Al Boum Photo, his life subdued to its instrument. That assumption interprets Inothewayurthinkin as not taking part in spirit on the racecourse rather than bodily remaining in his box, as did the dual previous victor bar an annual pre-match friendly at Tramore on New Year’s Day.

Yet, as Andrew pointed out, we could equally be dealing with a Sizing John – who at least boasted a range of quality efforts over the course of one season rather than a mere solitary peak. It will be interesting to see which precursor Inothewayurthinkin comes most closely to resemble. It may or may not be fulfilling.

To proceed based on the ante-post market’s predilections, Galopin Des Champs is next in its batting order. On the day, his comeback third in the Savills Chase was encouraging enough, for the reasons already cited above. The vibes had become increasingly positive as the race neared and so his odds tightened as favourite, yet Paul Townend rode in expectation of what he got.

Plainly it is both an actual advantage to steer a wide course on Leopardstown’s chase track and, just as importantly, broadly believed to be an advantage within the weighing room. Mid-to-wide in the back straight is permissible but it’s mostly hard wide, particularly in the straight, and definitely never – not one step – down the inner. You see it year after year, meeting after meeting.

Solness – discussed in full below – is the archetypal proponent of these tactics but Sam Ewing also touched on the subject in his post-Savills winning interview (watch below) about Affordale Fury. Both horses adjust right at a fence. Woe betides you if, to name but two, like I Am Maximus – until this year (on which more in a moment) – and Conflated, your habits tend in the opposite direction.

Take a look at the course steered by Townend on Galopin Des Champs when winning this race for the previous two seasons, each on his mount’s second start, and it becomes obvious his mental position was, if not defensive, certainly circumspect in 2025. His opponents were also less inclined to cede him control of the race at whatever pace he chose.

Having raced prominently on the inside-to-middle of the track amid an undemanding gallop – all nine remaining runners were still in camera-shot on landing at the second last – going the shorter route into the straight enabled Galopin briefly to retake the lead. But he didn’t have the legs to force a wider course.

Once headed, Townend accepted his fate and allowed his mount to drift left into the last, strongly suggesting his route to the line was less helpful than that of the two principals, Affordale Fury and runner-up I Am Maximus – or even fourth-placed Grangeclare West, who was steered right after the last. In short, there are more reasons than Galopin needing the run to upgrade this effort.

Against that view, in terms of his Gold Cup prospects, is the fact he’s now ten years of age. The last horse of that maturity to win was Cool Dawn in 1998. That’s a long time ago, albeit post-puffball skirts. Viewed with cold objectivity, it should also be acknowledged his form last term was not as unfailingly exceptional as the preceding one. I suspect he’s peaked but hope I’m wrong.

As viewers of the current season of the Road will know, I also can’t forget how Galopin was never going in last year’s Gold Cup. Add to that his glance at the exit at Punchestown in April, plus Willie Mullins’ instinctive post-race mention of cheekpieces at Cheltenham, and I worry the course to regaining his crown may not run smooth.

We all need “a bit of help” as we “get older” – his trainer’s words – but what Galopin gets will depend on what he does in the Irish Gold Cup. I can glimpse a perverse chain of events whereby a comfortable win there might add up to bad news for the Festival.

Before returning to the current Gold Cup batting order, I must address the horses who fought out the Savills.

You can take the winner Affordale Fury at face value: fittest horse in the field with three preps, young and lightly raced enough over fences credibly to be improving, and with sufficient back-form aptitude for this not to be a fluke. However, the worth of his coin as things stand is not enough to win at least nine of the last ten Gold Cups.

Furthermore, he possesses a right-handed jumping bias to a degree likely to disadvantage him at Cheltenham – even if the New Course is generally more forgiving of such a trait. Due to the quirks of its left-handed chase track, as outlined above, what might be perceived as a negative has the opposite impact at Leopardstown.

Moreover, at the final fence it probably made the difference between victory and defeat when Affordale Fury’s right-handed drift claimed the exact area of turf I Am Maximus had earmarked for his own habitual take-off adjustment. Like magnets, the two horses were ineluctably attracted until the runner-up’s last-minute moment of repulsion. The result was a check I think may have cost him the race, even though he was two-and-a-half lengths down at the line.

Why he was there at all is a matter for Derek O’Connor. On the positive side of the equation is what is surely more than a correlation between I Am Maximus keeping a wide course on this occasion as opposed to sticking to the unfavoured inside, as he had on all previous visits to the track. By changing his track position for the first time, O’Connor conjured his mount’s best performance yet at Leopardstown.

However, as Ruby Walsh touched upon in our Christmas review show, O’Connor may regret getting so abruptly competitive approaching the second last and on landing the other side. More patience could have seen him meet the last on the port side of the starboard-bound winner. Instead, I Am Maximus went from three-quarters of a length down on abortive take-off at the last to more than two lengths down once righted on landing, momentum also lost on a thorough stayer.

Yet this form was right up there with his excellent Grand National record – winner in 2024 and runner-up 12 months later – and his 2024 Bobbyjo romp, after which Willie Mullins spoke of him looking “like a Gold Cup horse in time”. Yet the Irish handicapper has dropped him 2lb since Sunday to a mark 1lb higher than his Aintree second last April, when he met more traffic than the winner Nick Rockett on the second circuit and faded at the finish after threatening at the Elbow.

Given the British handicapper will primarily frame the 2026 weights around I Am Maximus’s course form and the Savills Chase dawdle would not have played to his strengths, by rights this showing should merit a first shot at the Gold Cup. Cheltenham and Aintree are four weeks apart this year and his trainer is of the firm view than running well in the National requires thorough conditioning – more than this horse received in just two starts last season. At 33-1, he’d be no forlorn hope to hit the frame at the Festival.

Of the ships glimpsed distantly on the horizon in the John Durkan, few would have expected I Am Maximus to be the one to sally forth most meaningfully.

I thought Fastorslow, who’d there posted an encouraging third on return from injury, could be the one to step past Gold Cup winners off their A-game. However, although he took up a wide and prominent track position under Ricky Doyle – deputising for concussed JJ Slevin – he became outpaced when the steady tempo lifted on ground perhaps exacerbatingly quick for a stayer.

Now ten years of age like his auld rival Galopin, you sense his moment might have passed but 50/1 for the Gold Cup is an overreaction and it’s possible he’ll remain a lurking threat this season if any principal is off their game. On paper, what he did at Leopardstown was still a lot better than at Punchestown. After the Lord Mayor’s Show in April tends to be his best opportunity.

Grangeclare West and Lecky Watson had also been in the John Durkan backwash; both did better here but to differing degrees. The former recovered something approaching his best under a wide course at a track that suits him well; he might next be able to reprise last season’s Irish Gold Cup second. The latter – more unexposed – was positioned towards the inside and is clearly being aimed at the Grand National. Expect better when the weights are out.

To complete the Savills picture, Monty’s Star built on a poor showing in the Coral Gold Cup – when unusually dropped out, seemingly unconnected with the abortive starts. Here, he became outpaced before rallying steadily and is yet to encounter the test of stamina he needs. Aintree will provide it.

This was one of the few races over Christmas in which Gordon Elliott had little say. Stellar Story was unable to maintain an advantageously wide and prominent pitch, his jumping letting him down, before hanging unhelpfully to the inside. 2024 Gold Cup runner-up Gerri Colombe – having his first start for 421 days – was pulled up after suggesting his confidence for jumping remains on the sidelines, you’d fear perhaps forever.

Champ Kiely – with Harry Cobden on board, an increasingly regular Mullins call-up – got no further than the bend after the fourth fence when clipping heels with Fastorslow and mildly inconveniencing Grangeclare West in his tumble. He completed the course riderless but was sent back out four days later – under John Shinnick, deputising for the stood-down Townend – in the O’Driscoll’s Irish Whiskey New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore.

There, Heart Wood – dropped to an appropriate grade and receiving weight from that rival and Croke Park – pulled one back for Henry de Bromhead in an event he and Mullins alone have dominated since 2017. The score is now 4-6 but the winner bagging Tramore’s €50,000 bonus for a Cheltenham Festival follow-up appears unlikely, even though he chased home Fact To File at a respectful distance in the Ryanair last year. Perhaps the Melling Chase would be a better shout?

Heart Wood had previously been a race-fit fourth in the John Durkan and responded well for switching to front-running tactics, well suited to this track. He jumped cleanly and essentially won unchallenged, Croke Park conceding a prominent position after again looking laboured whilst Ile Atlantique picked up the pieces for second without yet convincing in the jumping department.

Perceval Legallois improved on his abject Coral Gold Cup flop but owed his distant fifth to one-paced stamina rather than anything more meaningful. Champ Kiely briefly appeared the main threat to the winner three out but weakened quickly, perhaps having had more taken out of him at Leopardstown than connections supposed.

Stablemate Gentleman De Mee marked time until the Topham last term and appears to be reprising that arc, whilst Classic Getaway was placed in the previous two editions of this race but had a massive off day. Having bled in the past, these come with the territory.

After that detour, let’s return to our progress through the Gold Cup betting. Half a length covered the first four home in a thrilling finish to the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. Victor The Jukebox Man is either marginally shorter or the same price as fourth-placed Jango Baie for Cheltenham at around 8-1, with third Gaelic Warrior two points longer and runner-up Banbridge – who tried and failed last year, an unlikely runner this time – as long as 40-1.

The Jukebox Man had the most to find on known form but, facing his first start in open Grade One company, that was hardly surprising. He’d already shown great aptitude for Kempton with his course-and-distance success in last term’s Kauto Star and here showed both the pace and under-pressure jumping to respond to Ben Jones’s astute tactical positioning in a steadily run race.

Assailed on both sides on the approach to the last and less smartly back into stride than either Banbridge on his outer or Gaelic Warrior on his inner, the soundness of his jump was all The Jukebox Man needed to force his head narrowly back in front at the line. He was probably pulling away passing the post but not by as much as Jones believed at the time.

There’s enough stamina in his pedigree to think the Gold Cup trip will be within his compass and, although his chase form is confined to flat tracks, he did produce a career best as a novice hurdler when runner-up in the 2024 Albert Bartlett.

Better again will be required if Galopin Des Champs regains the higher ground he has routinely operated from in the past (or Inowthewayurthinkin recaptures his Gold Cup chops) but the likely disparity is smaller than it would have been in the past – and each is on a different trajectory.

As expected in this parish, Gaelic Warrior didn’t make the running stepped back up to three miles and with most of the John Durkan fizz knocked out of him. Placed under heavy restraint by Townend over the first two fences, he soon settled on the heels of sedately front-running Il Est Français. Others completed more fluent rounds of jumping, however.

Much focus has been placed on Townend dropping and re-catching his whip when administering a second reminder on the dash from the last. It’s possible his mount faltered slightly without that encouragement – the mere equivalent of two noses would have made the difference.

However, I felt Gaelic Warrior’s race was lost when his own careful jumping six, five and (in particular) four out, relegated him to second rank in a race that developed into a sprint. From then on, Townend was playing catch-up. On the back foot in the straight, brave leaps from his mount at the last two fences gave him the fighting chance he only narrowly failed to seize.

I can’t see Gaelic Warrior heading to the Irish Gold Cup and wouldn’t fancy him if he did, having repeatedly demonstrated Leopardstown is not his bag. He will need to prove his stamina for the Gold Cup and his Flat-weighted pedigree in no way supports it, but the formbook shows he stays three miles well and handles Cheltenham, where the New Course will suit him better than the Old.

Jango Baie was also in Position C in the straight. He had a wider trip than the winner and was not as helpfully forward. Crucially, he stuttered into the third last as the sprint unwound and was unfortunate enough to receive a bump on landing two out when Banbridge adjusted left to accommodate The Jukebox Man drifting left ahead of him.

Nico de Boinville’s mount landed unbalanced as a result, losing about three-quarters of a length and some impetus. A courageously long leap at the last then saw him land running and he was gaining steadily with every stride to the line.

I’m on the fence about whether Jango Baie will get the Gold Cup trip; I think you can read his pedigree either way. More than one analyst has now mentioned him needing to focus his effort better, which interests me because I haven’t spotted what they’re seeing. I know myself to be a reluctant vicarious reacher for headgear, however, especially for a horse who’s still only seven years of age and always for stepping up distance. Without, he’s a player in my book.

Of the rest, a first-time visor and a sound surface worked for Banbridge this year as first-time cheekpieces and the same helped him to victory in 2024. This was a deeper race but perhaps run even more suitably. Trainer Joseph O’Brien – whose boutique operation was in superb form this Christmas – has suggested he’ll duck Cheltenham for Aintree, which palpably suits him better.

Fifth-placed Djelo arrived in the form of his life but looked diminutive in this line-up and fell short in Grade One company for the sixth time. Dropped out, he jumped the first three fences haltingly and was never really going despite the steady pace. Charlie Deutsch’s will forced him fleetingly into third three out, via a sweeping challenge that doubtless conceded ground on the home turn. Yet his rider only had the moonshot option left. Good ground was probably a disadvantage, too.

Il Est Français has sadly regressed by the year. How long ago his magnificent, relentless, pillar-to-post success in the 2023 Kauto Star now seems. What a shame. Master Chewy is not this class and his stamina for beyond 2m4f remains unproven, though his jumping is more reliable than of old. He was only able to keep in touch until the pace upped from a dawdle.

The big disappointment of the race – the start of a trying Christmas for the JP McManus team – was Fact To File, who was dropped in from the outset but never travelled or jumped with any fluency. Although briefly short of room on the bend after the second, his problems seem likeliest to have stemmed from finding the ground too quick and perhaps the track too sharp.

He was below his best on good going at Punchestown in April, too, albeit that may have been disguised at the time by a drop to two miles. Lacking a halfway option trip-wise at the Dublin Racing Festival, despite Fact To File’s aptitude for Leopardstown perhaps Mullins will be tempted to take in the Ascot Chase en route to defending his Ryanair title in March?

Having been imperious in that event last term, he remains ante-post favourite at 3-1 best. Yet you can argue that failing to deliver the killer blow in the John Durkan, despite a suitable set-up, and running no sort of race at Kempton is hardly frightening. Could he yet fall to friendly fire?

Finally, Haiti Couleurs (pictured above) bounced back from his Betfair Chase clunker and resumed his progressive profile when winning the Welsh National from a mark of 154. Having at first been inclined to blame a quick reappearance for his Haydock disappointment, trainer Rebecca Curtis had subsequently identified “a very sore sacroiliac joint over the top of his back” as the problem.

Despite noting a mere 5lb rise from the handicapper since his dominant weight-carrying display at Chepstow, Curtis now fancies a shot at the Gold Cup ahead of Aintree. “That’s not to say he won’t run in the two,” she said. “You don’t often get what I think is a horse with a real chance in the Gold Cup. Whether anyone else thinks that or not I don’t know, but I do.

“I’d like to give him another run, as the Gold Cup is one of those races you need to be so fit for, and I don’t think he’s the type of horse you need to wrap up in cottonwool and mind. He does thrive on his racing, so it would be nice to give him one run in between now and March.”

Haiti Couleurs has already shown an aptitude for Cheltenham via winning last season’s remodelled Grade Two National Hunt Chase from a mark of 135. His form needs at least a further 8lb to raise his sights even to the level of this year’s King George form, but he’s likely to be given a chance to advance his case in Newbury’s Denman Chase next month.