Road To Cheltenham: a 5-1 ante-post tip for the Arkle

Ahead of the traditional major contests over fences and hurdles at Christmas, the past week threw up a handful of substantial novice-chasing performances. I’m using this relatively quiet period before the storm to take a deeper dive into those races, taking a medium-to-long-term view on their participants at various levels of ability, and even finding an ante-post view that interested me.

It’s a rare thing these days for a Triumph Hurdle winner to go chasing the very next season, but it was obvious Majborough was not typical of the brand. Blessed with the frame of a chaser and yet the precocity to win the Cheltenham Festival’s Grade One juvenile event on merely his third career start, he looked exciting.

His debut over fences at Fairyhouse last Saturday did nothing to detract from that impression. Facing two older rivals who themselves had been campaigned at the highest level in novice hurdles by Willie Mullins, their stable companion brushed them aside with a dominant display.

Its hallmark was his impressive finishing speed of 111.99% according to RaceiQ, as well as his quick jumping. His speed recovery time and the brevity of his duration in the jumping envelope confirmed the visual impression that he’s a leading player in the Arkle, for all Mullins burdened him with Gold Cup aspirations last March.

At Fairyhouse, Mark Walsh admittedly bagged an uncontested lead from the outset and his mount was enthusiastic without being keen, attacking the first fence with some relish. His two closest pursuers - Tullyhill and Asian Master – in theory and practice, the only others to matter in this ten-strong field – tracked him, this trio in effect in a separate contest.

Majborough stuttered into the second and again, more markedly, at the sixth where he landed awkwardly; Walsh also suggested he might prefer a left-handed track, as he adjusted in that direction at most obstacles from the outset. But these were, as Walsh noted, “novicey mistakes”. He also flew the seventh and, when it mattered at the last, negotiated it with fluent efficiency. That he jumped so well on the sole occasion he was under pressure with a rival alongside is yet another positive.

The other two had been on his heels on the home turn but Asian Master – fourth in last season’s Supreme and built for chasing – was outpaced and shrugged off before the second last.

Having put himself right on take-off there, Tullyhill landed almost upsides the leader but immediately found Majborough accelerating away. Although he tenaciously responded, his final leap was more upright – and out to the left – and he could not match the younger horse’s further injection of pace to the line.

The runner-up had appeared more comfortable on left-handed tracks as a hurdler, so his tendency to go left here shouldn’t necessarily be blamed on the winner carrying, or suggesting, him in that direction.

Both bridesmaids made a decent fist of this and can win good races over fences; the fight Tullyhill displayed was likeable. Incidentally, this was Asian Master’s second try over fences, having dipped his toe on his second career start for his previous trainer and earlier bumped into no less than Fact To File on his point-to-point debut.

The rest never got involved, with keeping-on Western Lad taking an unfortunate and heavy tumble when booked for fourth but clipping the top of the last and hampering Doctor Glide on landing. Miss Pronunciation, who’d been given a notably circumspect ride in rear, inherited that position and would have surely passed the latter even without the interference.

The first Triumph Hurdle winner to progress straight to fences since Made In Japan 20 years ago, Majborough receives a more generous weight-for-age allowance in Ireland than he would in Britain – one of the obstructions cited when punters sensibly clamour for harmonisation of the two ratings files.

Whereas here he received 6lb from his elders, as a five-year-old at Cheltenham next March he would face them on level terms. The last such stripling to win was Voy Por Ustedes in 2006 and, since the rules were changed for the 2007/08 season, sixteen more have tried without success – although Fakir D’Oudairies was only one-and-a-half lengths behind Put The Kettle on (receiving a 7lb mares’ allowance) in 2020.

As things stand, Majborough is second favourite in most ante-post books behind stablemate and Baring Bingham winner Ballyburn, who made a good impression on chase debut at Punchestown – but not as good as this.

On breeding and general presentation, I suspect he’ll end up going out in trip (we all submit, linguistically, in the end) for the Brown Advisory, now there are only two Festival Grade Ones to conjure with. There are also several scenarios via which Majborough’s current best-priced 5-1 is longer than it’s likely to be by Friday week.

Right now, Sir Gino – another four-year-old – is yet to make his chase debut, if indeed he does this season. Yet he’s been trimmed by certain bookmakers for the Arkle today - does that mean he’ll appear over fences at Kempton next week?

When speaking to Nick Luck after Jango Baie won at Cheltenham last Friday (watch below), Nicky Henderson seemed to suggest we’ll see Sir Gino at that meeting one way or another. That means either alongside, or instead of, Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle (and there’s no reason to believe it will be instead of his stable companion at the time of writing), or else over fences.

If that latter option translates as the Grade Two Wayward Lad – and I can’t see what else it could be – he could bump into Ballyburn there… Not only is that inconvenient for Henderson – who’s been pushed into campaigning his strong band of novice chasers more punchily than he’d prefer this season – it could make an early statement in the Arkle market. So, let’s get Majborough on side at 5-1 now.

Incidentally, you might say this punchier campaigning is a good thing – and as a more general point, I’d agree with you – but not with novice chasers. Whilst they’ve still got L-plates on, giving slower-burners little option but handicaps or graded races – aside from the smattering of ordinary weight-for-age events that remain – is as likely to set them back as set them up for rewarding careers. You can’t measure this system only by the ones that survive it – and Ireland’s is starkly different.

Talking of Jango Baie, he was pretty impressive himself when taking the scalps of more experienced rivals – notably Springwell Bay and Caldwell Potter – in Cheltenham’s SSS Super Alloys Novices’ Chase last Friday. Both Henderson and jockey Nico de Boinville were clearly impressed by the questions he answered during this round of jumping.

Much like his chase debut at Carlisle, Caldwell Potter simply couldn’t wait to get to the first fence, getting in close but attacking it with verve. Yet Jango Baie set after him when outjumping the perpetually keen Springwell Bay at the second. By the sixth, Jango Baie was eyeballing Caldwell Potter and where the former didn’t match the latter, he often bettered him. De Boinville certainly didn’t cotton-wool him.

On the home turn, Harry Cobden asked Caldwell Potter to stretch his pursuers but he couldn’t shake either of them off – Jango Baie travelling the more smoothly, to the extent de Boinville could keep Springwell Bay and Jonjo O’Neill Jnr in a pocket on his inside and behind the leader approaching two out.

There, straightforwardly, Jango Baie jumped into the lead and that was Caldwell Potter done, beaten and fading before his final-fence error exaggerated it. Perhaps he needs much more testing ground – this was good-to-soft – to be at his best, or maybe a change of trip? I’m honestly not sure in which direction! Perhaps that’s beside the point because this was disconcerting. He’d jumped and travelled well until…the moment he was beaten.

Springwell Bay’s jumping was neither as fluent nor as accurate as the two horses he split, yet he remains a talented horse to be able to have as much of a say as he does at the finish of his races, given his refusal to settle. He was also conceding weight all round here, 8lb to the winner and 3lb to the third – two superior horses over hurdles – and stayed on strongly without landing a real blow on the winner.

Back in fourth, Deafening Silence didn’t possess the pace, jumping technique and perhaps also the ability to match the main trio. He might do better racing right-handed – as that’s the way he adjusted and his best, if scant, novice-hurdling form came at Exeter and Sandown – but Cheltenham’s New Course is a more galloping affair than the Old, so that seems a feeble excuse.

Henderson acknowledged the winner isn’t very big but has a load of scope and an accurate jump – what’s not to like? The plan had been to drop him in “but he wasn’t having any of that,” he added. De Boinville didn’t want to disappoint his mount after he’d jumped with such verve early on, hence the relatively gung-ho tactics on an inexperienced horse, adding this was an ideal trip and ground combination. 

I shall watch his career develop with interest as he finds plenty and promises to be a much better chaser – even though he was good enough to win the Grade One Formby Novices’ Hurdle last Christmas.

The following day at Cheltenham, Jango Baie’s stablemate Peaky Boy was sent off favourite for the Josh Wyke Birthday Novices Limited Handicap Chase. He’d won a similar contest on the sister course in November but this time found Haiti Couleurs too strong in both the jumping and travelling departments, his only mistake coming four out. Having jumped slowly in the early stages, Transmission steadily crept into the race to finish a career-best second. 

The first three home are all on the up, but it’s the winner who indicated he might manage a jump in class. Trainer Rebecca Curtis told Nick Luck on Racing TV that the NH Chase – now a handicap with an upper rating limit of 145 – had been the plan, but she acknowledged he could yet be propelled towards the Brown Advisory instead.

Haiti Couleurs was raised 5lb to 135 for this effort – an entirely viable mark for this progressive horse. Operating this season so far at a strike rate reminiscent of her stable’s pomp in the previous decade, Curtis knows a thing or two about decent chasers, having developed Teaforthree and O’Faolains Boy to operate at a high level.

Much like Majborough’s race, you also wouldn’t have blinked had the beginners chase to which Naas played host on Monday held an early-season Pattern label, such was the depth of its line-up – at least on novice-hurdling form. Yet fences can change the world order and so, again, 2024 Supreme winner Slade Steel played second fiddle to a hitherto lesser-achieving rival.

Lecky Watson was no slouch last season but fifth in the staying novice contests at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals were the best he mustered, wearing a hood on both occasions. Slade Steel had even accounted for him directly by half a length in the Grade Two Navan Hurdle last December.

Willie Mullins dispensed with the hood for the winner’s chase debut, and Paul Townend reverted to the positive tactics not employed since this horse’s second bumper start more than two years ago.

Making the running certainly appeared slightly alien to him, as he eyed the wings on the approach to a couple of fences, running about, and also gave more lingering consideration to the racecourse-stables exit, requiring encouragement to pass it by, whilst beginning his final circuit.

However, having adjusted mildly right pretty much throughout and stuttered carefully into the third- and second-last fences, he flew the last when asked by Townend, and pulled out plenty on the run to the line, defying Slade Steel by a length and a quarter.

The runner-up – on whom Rachael Blackmore made her much-anticipated return from a neck injury sustained at Downpatrick three months earlier – did not make the improvement trainer Henry de Bromhead had expected, in a race he won with future Gold Cup hero A Plus Tard in 2018 and two years ago with Journey With Me.

Slade Steel had been schooled by his usual rider at the trainer’s Knockeen base in the days since his debut second to Better Days Ahead at Navan last month, but her mount remains one careful jumper.

In the van with the winner and Staffordshire Knot initially, and even leading narrowly over the first, Slade Steel was then slightly outjumped by that duo at the next two fences, and Blackmore steadied him to track the pace yet remain prominent. That pace was soon set by clean-jumping Lecky Watson alone.

After initially only adjusting right, Staffordshire Knot began to jump debilitatingly in that direction from the fourth fence and this approach caused him to hit the brakes, interrupting whatever rhythm remained, at most fences from the sixth onwards. Hence, he forfeited his pitch alongside the winner. 

Chased along to hold his position from three out, Staffordshire Knot weakened markedly when tired approaching the next and ran down the last with the most extreme starboard tack of his entire round.

This was only the second time he’s been campaigned on a left-handed track, the other attempt his never-truly-threatening second to smart stablemate Brighterdaysahead at Aintree when his right-handed bias was again in evidence. He clearly cannot cope this way around, with fences making his proclivities more pronounced. Throw this out. His quickfire Christmas entry at Leopardstown is only half-useful; he retains potential for more suitable targets over that three-mile trip.

Slade Steel, meanwhile, made no real errors – worryingly, perhaps. He was careful at five and four out whilst Lecky Watson attacked them, and Blackmore was already flicking her whip down his shoulder from three out, asking him to keep up. He got into the bottom of the final two fences, untidy when just about upsides the winner at the last, but edged left on the stiff run-in and faded late on.

Indeed, I was left with the impression third-placed Blizzard Of Oz might even have caught him had Danny Mullins not taken a circumspect view, from two out until after the last, of his chances of matching the principals.

His mount’s jumping had taken time to warm up – lunging at the first, slow at the third and eighth, and braking into four out. But his relish for the ninth suggested growing confidence, and he was on the bridle entering the straight, muscling out stablemate Lombron to stay on strongly but belatedly. Much like the winner, Blizzard Of Oz is going to be better as a chaser, perhaps strikingly so in his case.

Lombron jumped soundly but lacked the pace to get involved, or even to hold his position when required, before then plugging on. He either found this too hot, or else needs further – albeit his pedigree wouldn’t necessarily support the latter idea and he appeared to fail to get home on his one attempt at three miles over hurdles.

Fifth-placed Answer To Kayf didn’t race under Rules until he was seven and, 18 months later, was a relatively late recruit to chasing. He jumped better and straighter than on debut at Fairyhouse but on form didn’t achieve much more.

He holds his head proudly and travels strongly, but did not respond to pressure in the straight. He did finish fourth in last term’s Martin Pipe, however, and may prefer deeper ground.

That neon sign is still flashing over Ataboycharlie’s head, if anything more brightly than on his chase debut at Punchestown. Anchored in last from his first strides, he lost further ground with a slow first leap but his otherwise sound technique soon propelled him to the fore of the second rank – this being a race of two halves. There was no appetite to bridge the gap.

Keith Donoghue allowed him to get into the bottom of four and three out, and his mount ran down the final fence to his left, but he still finished in front of second-season novice Shanbally Kid even though the whip was only waved – and that briefly – approaching the last. Out of his depth here, Ataboycharlie will find a suitable handicap sooner rather than later.

Shanbally Kid was at one point well fancied for the 2023 Albert Bartlett, but managed only a non-staying eighth. He tried fences once last season, jumping appallingly, but ran well over hurdles at both the DRF and Cheltenham, finishing third in the Coral Cup at the latter. He’s entitled to strip fitter for this after nine months off, but jumped very deliberately prior to fading from two out.

The mare Splashing Out, who finished ninth against some decent boys here, should be able to find a handicap, too, against her own gender. This was her fourth start over fences, admittedly, and her method errs on the airy, but she produced her best hurdling form with cheekpieces or a visor applied, neither of which she’s worn so far over the larger obstacles. Thus, she’ll no doubt end up with a workably low mark.

Like Staffordshire Knot, both Lecky Watson and Slade Steel were entered in the prosaically named Grade One three-mile Racing Post Long Distance Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas – otherwise known as the Fort Leney, to those of us who value our sport’s heritage, which plainly doesn’t include those responsible for race titles on either side of the Irish Sea.

However, the contest intended to celebrate the 1968 Gold Cup winner, trained by Tom Dreaper and ridden by Pat Taaffe, comes too soon for either of them. Again, for the record only, the runner-up was also entered in Limerick’s Guinness 00 Faugheen Novice Chase – how soon before that touchstone title is quietly side-lined? – on Saturday week. 

Either three miles or testing ground might bring out better in Slade Steel, whose jumping isn’t looking likely to become quick enough for two miles. He’s a horse who usually responds generously to pressure, however, and my sense is it’s more than just his fencing that’s not at the required level. His yard had been operating at full gas in October and November, too, if rather less prolifically so far this month.

None so far