Road To Cheltenham: Soap operas and thrillers

Tumultuous doesn’t quite cover it for the two-mile hurdling division in the past week, with the rumour mill knowing far ahead of any official announcement that two of its stars wouldn’t be taking up their next engagements.

Whereas Constitution Hill’s soreness forces him to miss Saturday’s Fighting Fifth, Lossiemouth’s more transitory stone bruise means she should be back in action against Teahupoo in this Sunday’s Grade One Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse.

Regardless of his stablemate’s absence, however, the reigning Champion Hurdler was still deposed by a female upstart when Brighterdaysahead got back up to deny State Man a third straight Morgiana victory. And yet this was all deemed to add up to Lossiemouth becoming ante-post favourite for the ultimate target next March by dint of not leaving her box.

This diverting episode is discussed in more detail below, along with a John Durkan commensurate in reality to the stellar cast it attracted, a typically attritional Betfair Chase and a fistful of significant novice-chasing exploits – headed by the fencing debut of last season’s top-rated novice hurdler Ballyburn.

So much racing, so much space… Hope you’ve got some spare time!

Let’s start with the racing rather than the recriminations, shall we? After all, what took place on the track was less predictable.

With his stablemate having sent her excuses that morning, State Man began as the 4/9 favourite to gather a hat-trick of victories in the Grade One Unibet Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown last Saturday – the traditional starting-point of his campaign. On paper and in theory, he’d faced tougher asks in past renewals, if admittedly always under friendly fire.

In 2022, he faced stablemate Sharjah – himself then a dual winner of this race, runner-up in the previous two Champion Hurdles, and officially rated 162. (These facts are too easily dismissed in retrospect.) State Man was then the young buck – but still rated 4/9 favourite – brushing aside a rival four years his senior on his first assignment beyond his novice season, when he’d been streetwise enough to land the Festival’s County Hurdle.

Twelve months later, stable-companion Echoes In Rain was a less formidable opponent, even though she’d won the previous season’s Mares’ Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival and was fit from a high-quality Flat campaign. Officially, she was rated 153 and aided by her 7lbs mares' allowance. Yet as the 1/6 favourite, State Man didn’t even need to be at his best to beat her five lengths.

Brighterdaysahead seemingly brought a similar profile to the table – a mare rated 153, sharpened up with recent racing, in her case an authoritative success in Down Royal’s Bottlegreen Hurdle last month. However, whatever the figures said, it was plain the threat she represented was of an entirely different qualitative order – and State Man is now rising eight, of course.

Though out-speeded in a glacially run Dawn Run when conceding 5lb to the smart Golden Ace – herself unbeaten over hurdles until later the same day, also discussed below – Brighterdaysahead had thumped the boys by a wide margin in Aintree’s Top Novices’ Hurdle and drawn superlatives from trainer Gordon Elliott from an early stage in her career. After her victorious seasonal return, he trebled down by citing the Unibet Champion Hurdle, rather than the Close Brothers David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, as her Cheltenham target.

Yet last Sunday it was still widely assumed she would be neither good nor quick enough to become the first horse to lower State Man’s colours on home turf. The latter contention meant the pre-race tactics were obvious. Jack Kennedy would try to make it a staying test, using his mare’s superior stamina and race-fitness to maximum advantage, whilst Paul Townend’s task was not to let her get so far ahead that the returning State Man had too great a deficit to make up.

Both carried out their jobs almost entirely as expected. Kennedy bounced out in front for a solo on the lead and Townend chased him in second, himself clear of the rest. As she had done as a novice, Brighterdaysahead jumped left at the first two flights, rather diving at the second, and she appeared disconcerted about making her own running. She drifted left at the fourth and flattened it, and made a similar hash of the third last.

On the home turn, State Man was on her heels but Townend had already needed to work a little to get there, such is her innate ability. As they swung into the straight, Kennedy administered two encouraging taps of the whip – by no means a distress signal – but his mount was still narrowly headed on the run to the last, to the eventual runner-up’s great credit.

There, under an animated Townend, State Man produced the lesser jump – and the mare needed no second invitation, forcing her head back in front and then holding him by a consistent margin on the run to the line. Those who supported the favourite would only have held fleeting hope.

"The mare needed no second invitation" - watch the full replay

A long 13 lengths adrift, ten-year-old Winter Fog’s hard-fitness edge from a summer racing under both codes enabled him to finish off his race strongly for third, despite having been badly outpaced and dropped three out. Daddy Long Legs wasn’t asked to get especially competitive but was also clearly outclassed in fifth, whilst Sir Gerhard shaped better than his sixth place suggests on return from his summer break, having raced in third until the final hurdle.

Afterwards, Kennedy suggested Brighterdaysahead had “outbattled” State Man – but that’s more likely to be a reflection of the relative levels of fitness of two smart horses at the business end of the race. He also admitted he’d been thinking in terms of the Champion Hurdle for her since Aintree, albeit he hadn’t “fully made it known to Gordon”.

The trainer, of course, had been saying the same thing aloud for longer and on more than one occasion, so it was slightly surprising to read in Sunday’s Racing Post that this was the moment he chose perversely to push forward the Mares’ Hurdle, describing it as “made for her”. Cue reflexive outrage about Jockey Club Racecourses taking a bigger-picture view and not scrapping or downgrading it in their recent Cheltenham review.

In his interview, Kennedy also minimised Brighterdaysahead’s errors when questioned about the two flattened hurdles by Racing TV’s Gary O’Brien. “A couple of little mistakes but to be honest I’d say they were my own fault,” he said. “She was slick when she needed to be. Over the last, when I needed her, she was very good.”

Admittedly, State Man’s proximity on the mare’s left flank kept her straighter than she’d surely otherwise have met that critical final hurdle; her habitual left-shifting was contained whereas he made an error. Townend might regret not steering a wider course in the straight. His mount will also improve for this run, of course.

Yet it would also be folly to think the sheer progression of the two-years-younger winner isn’t likely to continue, whereas we surely know the best of which State Man is capable.

That best tends to come at Leopardstown rather than at Punchestown or Cheltenham, so I would expect him to be able to turn the tables with the mare should they meet in either the Matheson or Irish Champion Hurdle. Although Brighterdaysahead would be aided by returning to a left-handed venue, she is not a natural front-runner (like the Elliott-trained Apple’s Jade was, for example) and the dominant emphasis on tactical speed at Leopardstown will suit State Man far more.

“Going left-handed and with a lead, coming off a strong pace – that’s when you’ll see the best of her,” Kennedy asserted. And it’s impossible to argue with that. As my Road To Cheltenham co-host mentioned last week, he only rode one mare capable of winning a Champion Hurdle and, as a staying two-miler, Brighterdaysahead is not dissimilar to Annie Power. Of course, it took until Annie’s third Festival for her to line up in a Champion Hurdle…

Morgiana analysis concluded with that comparison to Rich and Susannah Ricci’s greatest race-mare, it both logically and subliminally follows – brace – that next we must discuss Lossie-gate. This was the second of two events last week involving the gap between what was seen and what was to be believed, with those poor saps the general public – who greatly fund the sport and whose interest in it solely maintains its relevance to society – being the last to find out.

Everybody and their dog seemed to know Lossiemouth wasn’t going to pitch up against State Man in the Morgiana. Obviously, it was Matt Chapman who said it in so many words, both writing about it in his column for The Sun and in his accompanying promotional tweet.

But columnists always have more rope; by definition, they write opinion pieces. Elsewhere on The Sun’s racing pages, her declaration was necessarily played with a straight bat. Likewise, the Racing Post pictured her on its Saturday front page and ITV Racing’s The Opening Show led its menu of contents with her on Saturday morning… only to announce her as a non-runner little more than three minutes later.

According to the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board website, Lossiemouth was officially withdrawn at 09:25:40 with a stone bruise. Yet those were not the terms on which this subject was discussed on Racing TV throughout the day. Punchestown presenter Gary O’Brien constructively framed a discussion with his pundit Ruby Walsh on a matter of principle rather than basing his questions on the individual case.

“Should there be a rule, or should the rules facilitate a situation, whereby a trainer can state a horse is only in a field in case something happens to another, because we’ve got 48 hours declarations now… plenty can go wrong in that period,” O’Brien asked. “Should there be a bit more flexibility in the rules?”

Later, O’Brien and Elliott also tacitly dismissed the official withdrawal reason during their interview after the Florida Pearl Novice Chase, when the former asked the latter about his expectations for Brighterdaysahead in the upcoming Morgiana.

O’Brien remarked that the mare’s absence was “maybe not the greatest surprise”, to which Elliott responded: “Yeah, not a shock but you have to keep all bases covered.” Elliott viewed this episode with a trainer’s pragmatism, underlining the sense that the profession finds it perfectly reasonable to withdraw a declared horse once almost all threat of setback to a similarly effective stablemate and fellow entrant had passed.

Like withdrawing a horse drawn 14 of 14 at Chester due to ‘going’, or ‘not eaten up’, or ‘self-certificate: lame’, this is connections some might imagine fabricating a reason whilst – as Walsh repeatedly said – it is “obvious” to those in the know that something else is really going on. And the sport wonders why it suffers from a lack of trust among fans, often breaking into full-blown outrage!

However, no system is perfect and it’s not difficult to envisage that, unless there is some sort of official disincentive (such as those that currently exist) against declaring a horse you have little intention of running, the most powerful operations would play the system even more than they do now. What would be the barrier to declaring their best two horses as a matter of routine for every significant race? The declaration stage would become explicitly provisional, thus rendering betting, build-up analysis and marketing unhelpfully vague and theoretical. It would be a nonsense.

Yet there’s no doubt instances like this erode public trust. What’s interesting is where those who believe she was never going to run think the circle of trust started and finished? And if Lossiemouth hadn’t really been lame on Saturday morning, what would have been the official reason given for her seemingly widely anticipated withdrawal?

Is it that the mare was declared with no intention of participating with Ricci and/or his racing manager in the loop, despite the other runner being owned by a different powerful and highly competitive entity? Or were they not in the loop, in which case is it plausible that Mullins would risk appearing to manipulate them so publicly and thus jeopardise their relationship? The owner whose investment has enabled them together to win 98 worldwide Graded or Group Ones? Hardly.

Or is there a third, rarely considered explanation – a case of cock-up rather than conspiracy?

Yet this scenario could have been rectified by a ‘declared in error’ notice and that did not come. All in all, it was an unsatisfactory episode that adds via accretion to the public’s feeling that they’re playing with a marked deck.

It’s worth noting, however, that the betting markets weren’t caught unawares by Lossiemouth’s surprise declaration and subsequent withdrawal because they were NRNB during this period. Clearly Rule 4 affects your take-out as a winner but this is a system that largely favours the punter, so those who might have felt aggrieved were primarily mourning the loss of a better race – albeit they got a top-drawer one anyway.

Yet the same point does not apply to the latest episode in the perennial soap opera that is Seven Barrows. Constitution Hill is currently what Albert Square or Ramsey Street always is to Eastenders or Neighbours: scene of the ongoing drama.

The latest thread in this ongoing plot-line began to unravel last Tuesday when one of the most brilliant hurdlers ever to have raced made his eagerly anticipated return to the public gaze at Newbury’s gallops morning ahead of their Winter Carnival this weekend. He galloped alongside Sir Gino and greatly underwhelmed observers, his talented younger stable companion breezing along on the bridle whilst Constitution Hill struggled to lie up from two furlongs out.

In the immediate aftermath, whilst social media predicted the 2023 Champion Hurdler’s imminent retirement and he was deposed as favourite for both the 2025 edition next March and Saturday week’s Fighting Fifth, both Nico de Boinville and Nicky Henderson maintained that they were not at all discouraged.

“He felt great until about the two [pole], where he’s just had a good blow,” the jockey reasonably told Mick Fitzgerald on Sky Sports Racing. “He’s just needed that a bit, but that’s the reason why we have these gallops.”

The trainer spoke at length to Racing TV’s Josh Stacey, an extract of which we used on last week’s Road To Cheltenham show. He stressed that he does not view Constitution Hill’s return as “a comeback” in the sense of, for example, Sprinter Sacre returning from a heart scare. “This horse hasn’t had any serious injury of any description,” he emphasised.

Yet it was surely reasonable to infer the extent to which Constitution Hill needed that gallop took both trainer and jockey by surprise to a not-insignificant degree? Else, why would they have opted for such a public arena with such a pored-over horse? Or, if a racecourse outing was deemed understandably beneficial to his preparation, why pair him with a stablemate whom Henderson described – with emphasis – as “a very, very good horse”?

Indeed, Chapman got de Boinville to admit to some disappointment about 36 hours later on Sky Sports Racing’s new weekly show Unbridled. “Genuinely, was that what you were expecting,” Chapman asked. “Or would you have expected Constitution Hill just to cruise up to Sir Gino?”

“We would have expected a bit more,” de Boinville conceded. “But I’d like to think that yesterday would have brought him on an awful lot. He’s got one more piece of work to go [before the Flighting Fifth] and then that will be it. But look, to all the naysayers out there: he’s a good price now, isn’t he?”

The answer was no because the horse would soon drift further, and markedly so in the hour or prior to 13:23 on Friday when @sevenbarrows published this video on X:

“I’m afraid I have to report that we have a problem with Constitution Hill,” a fraught-looking Henderson stated directly to camera. “He is currently lame. This wasn’t immediately apparent after his gallop at Newbury on Tuesday. But for the last 48 hours he has been sore, but for what reason we are still unaware and currently investigating. 

“This, as I’m sure everybody will appreciate, is a tragic problem for us and an issue. But we have to report where we are, and he is still under investigation. We are trying to find the reason for it, which is not apparent, and we will obviously keep everybody posted. But at this stage I think you’d have to say he is unlikely to make next Saturday at Newcastle.

“And I have to confirm to everybody this is not a retirement call. He is not [retiring]. He was bright and breezy after his gallop, but we have this issue.”

Had this crucial news been communicated to the public in a timely fashion, nobody reasonable could criticise these developments. Yet in reality, in the hour or so prior to Friday’s announcement, there was what one bookmaker described to me as “a significant drift” in Constitution Hill’s price for the Fighting Fifth. Remember, that market was live on ante-post terms; it was not NRNB.

It must be acknowledged that communication from Seven Barrows since this point has been exemplary.

Later that day, Henderson conducted an extensive and informative interview at Ascot with Hayley Moore on Sky Sports Racing.

(It’s worth noting that in this interview Henderson corrected himself when going to say the horse had been lame since Wednesday morning, contradicting the timeline he’d given in his X statement a few hours earlier and also the one he would told Nick Luck on Racing TV at Kempton on Monday. Clearly the longer the issue was apparent, the greater the omission to speak. However, the trainer has twice disavowed a connection between the gallop and the soreness.)

There was then a further update from Ascot on Saturday. When interviewed by Luke Harvey, Henderson revealed the cause of the problem had eventually been uncovered by an MRI scan, after both an X-ray and ultrasound had revealed nothing. An area of bruising was pressing on a nerve near the pastern but, thankfully, there was no damage to the joint or bone.

He also reported his vet’s professional opinion on the potential maximum and minimum duration for this issue to prevent the horse from returning to exercise. “He thought the maximum might be three weeks; minimum could be three days. If it’s three days, we’ll get to Kempton [for the Christmas Hurdle]; if it’s three weeks, we wouldn’t get to Kempton. That’s as near as black and white as you can get,” he said.

Indeed, it was. Two days later, @sevenbarrows gave a further, more positive update. In a piece directly to camera whilst holding Constitution Hill in his new better-ventilated box (built after his respiratory issues of last January), Henderson said: “From having been very noticeably lame on Friday and Saturday, he’s miles and miles better this morning and we are starting some gentle walking exercise today,” he said. “I really seriously hope we can get back on road and we can continue his preparation, which will hopefully now lead us to the Christmas Hurdle.”

It’s also worth noting Henderson was completely transparent on the potential permutations of Sir Gino’s campaign, stating at the Newbury gallop that, although the horse was set to make his debut over fences at Kempton the following Monday, if “he was needed to come back into the Champion [Hurdle landscape], either by Joe [Donnelly, his owner] or myself, or both, or whatever, he could easily come back”.

“We did it with Buveur D’Air,” he reminded. “He went novice chasing, won his first two novice chases and we switched him back, and he won the Champion Hurdle.”

On the Saturday at Ascot, prior to Donnelly’s State Man being beaten in the Morgiana, Henderson also then volunteered that he planned to run Sir Gino in the Fighting Fifth now that Constitution Hill had been definitively counted out of that target. So, no alarms and no surprises there.

But as the radio alarm-clock flicks to 06:00 and I Got You Babe plays again, at the risk of condemning myself to future tetchiness I must repeat…

If you’ve got a high-profile horse, especially one quoted in a live betting market, the clock is ticking whenever it meets a price-affecting setback. Promptness is paramount when informing the public.

Yes, the owner should ideally know first and the course of such communications does not always run smooth when dealing with busy, global people. Yes, it can often take time to discover what the problem actually is. Yes, the public does not fully understand how often horses can meet with setbacks pre-race, nor that many winners have had unrevealed pre-race issues in the past. 

I do also sympathise that the hum of social media reached such a pitch last week that those at Seven Barrows had no doubt mentally barricaded the door against a barrage of wild assertions that Constitution Hill must or would be – or even had been – retired. To then have some bad news you must communicate amid this onslaught might understandably mean you’re less inclined to raise your head above the parapet.

But if your ship isn’t watertight enough to withstand a leak – and, let’s be frank, being sponsored by a bookmaker (admittedly, as many other yards and participants now are) doesn’t help with the optics here – get the news out sharp and put yourself beyond reasonable criticism. The public does understand a peculiar drift and remembers when it keeps happening.

Of course, Henderson is stuck in a perpetual paradox – much like the polarised analysis of the BBC’s political leanings – in which journalists are simultaneously said to give him too easy a ride and to single him out unfairly. Whichever narrative you believe, please may I have heard the last of Sonny and Cher?

By the way, on the Sir Gino front, Henderson mentioned in his exchange with Nick Luck on Monday – after last season’s Betfair Hurdle winner Iberico Lord had made a successful debut over fences [see novice-chasing section below] – that he hadn’t yet been schooled over hurdles ahead of his revised target. That was due to take place yesterday, Wednesday.

Last season’s evidence indicated this session might be more necessary for Sir Gino than many a horse making a swift switch of discipline (“for now,” his trainer said with emphasis), especially when you’re facing your toughest challenge yet in the shape of Mystical Power.

Sir Gino’s jumping on British debut was raggedy and he further complicated the task of reeling in Kargese in Aintree’s juvenile Grade One last April when making a hash of two of the final three hurdles. However, his habit was to run into obstacles as if they were mere inconveniences between him and the finishing line. It might be that schooling over fences actually helps.

Let’s finish this section as we started it, however, with action rather than yak. At Ascot on Saturday, Dawn Run heroine Golden Ace made her seasonal debut against the boys in the Grade Two Howden-sponsored hurdle. Four of the five participants took the second last in a line, reflecting a relatively pedestrian pace. Even so, what happened next was enough to suggest her stamina was stretched – albeit the form of trainer Jeremy Scott’s yard is potentially an alternative excuse.

After travelling strongly around the home turn and jumping that obstacle fluently, Golden Ace could only find the one pace over 2m3f and finished last of that quartet albeit beaten less than two lengths by the winner Lucky Place – one of the few Henderson-trained horses well enough to acquit himself with credit at last season’s Cheltenham Festival, finishing fourth in the Coral Cup.

From the last, he wore down Blueking D’Oroux – who’d made himself vulnerable by drifting left on the approach to his hurdles – whilst nine-year-old Colonel Mustard rallied after his error at two out to claim third from Golden Ace.

The mare will surely improve for the run and can still win decent races at around two miles this season, but she won’t be effective over 2m4f at the Festival on this evidence.

The best John Durkan Memorial Chase I could ever recall on paper didn’t disappoint in pulsating actuality. Eat your heart out, Kempton! This was a line-up worthy of an end-of-term Festival of which Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown would have been proud – albeit, of course, this was first time out and not everyone’s ideal trip. Isn’t this how Jump racing used to be, in my yoot?

Perhaps the best thing about this edition is that connections of each of the first four home would have all gone home with reasons why they might either maintain superiority in future or else gain sweet revenge.

This was a triumphant and utterly convincing graduation to open Grade One company at the first attempt by Fact To File. Mark Walsh won the first battle, occupying the box seat down the inside line from the outset. This would become the cause of some dispute from three to two out, when at the fourth last he made his only (minor) error of the round thus enabling Derek O’Connor positionally to capitalise on Fastorslow at the next.

There was subsequently a bit of argy-bargy on the home turn, for which the mild-manned O’Connor – transformed into a competitive monster once he’s got two feet in the irons – later apologised in the stewards’ room. He aggressively hugged the inside rail – albeit he ascribed this competitiveness to his mount – and checked the winner, causing him to be momentarily unbalanced entering the straight.

It's to Fact To File’s great credit that he brushed this off, jumping the second last with composure and readily manoeuvring between positively ridden Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow approaching the last, where he fluidly jumped into the lead. Then, there was the matter of repelling the final challenge from Spillane’s Tower, which he executed by pulling out yet more.

We knew from at least two instances of form last season – his Christmas demolition of a beginners chase at Leopardstown and his clock-friendly dismissal of Gaelic Warrior (no less) over 2m5f at the DRF – that Fact To File was a serious, top-drawer novice. Less so his Brown Advisory triumph at Cheltenham, however, as that was run at a crawl and by no means a test of stamina.

That’s the question, then, that hangs over his Gold Cup prospects: will he stay an extended 3m2f? I’m not convinced and, whilst I am in no doubt that he’s a very smart horse, I am certainly not tempted by his new position as 11/4 favourite for that Cheltenham target.

Whether he ends up there depends on whether any lack of stamina is exposed between now and then. If I were JP McManus, I’d supplement him for the King George rather than face stable companion Galopin Des Champs in the Savills, with its more likely testing ground, and then answer the million-dollar question in the Irish Gold Cup. I suspect Mullins would agree, albeit he’d lack my objectivity in the process.

Beaten a mere half-length into second, Spillane’s Tower also made the transition into Grade One open company with aplomb. More patiently ridden than any of the other principals and with Kennedy on board for the first time, he was also less fleet of foot than them at the sixth, and also fifth-last fences.

However, good leaps four and three out enabled him to creep into contention and he stayed on inexorably, despite hanging right. Jumping the last in a narrow third, he rallied strongly – whilst continuing to hang right – to press the winner nearing the line but Fact To File pulled out more.

This evidence suggests the ongoing question for the runner-up is twofold. Will he be as effective at this level when going left-handed? (Something I’ve asked myself, and prevaricated on, before.) And will he stay three miles in Grade One open company, let alone beyond? He’s by hot-blooded Walk In The Park, and his Punchestown Champion Novice Chase success last May was achieved at even more of a crawl than the Brown Advisory. 

Given his track-orientation consideration, he must also be a King George possible. Just to make it easier for McManus (wink emoji), he might well be better suited to Kempton than Leopardstown.

As a fully paid-up lifetime-membership Galopin Des Champs fan, I was delighted with this seasonal reappearance. He jumped much better than has been previously the case, either in past editions of this race or in most races at this track, for positive tactics – (sarcastic face) zowie!

However, he’s neither been slick nor fleet enough for top-flight 2m4f company since he exited novice company two full seasons ago. Witness his aerial shot at the second last! But he broke a lesser rival like stablemate Grangeclare West even at this gallop, and might have done better had he not been obliged to engage in battle with Fastorslow (for the seventh occasion overall) from the home turn. Even so, GDC edged ahead 4-3 in that personal battle with FOS.

It must surely be obvious by now that Galopin Des Champs is a thorough stayer, albeit with some (doubtless diminishing) tactical speed, and who – no, I won’t let it lie, Vic – jumps better with assertive tactics. Bookies pushing him out to bigger than 5/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on the basis of this thoroughly encouraging effort was, frankly, weird.

For his auld rival’s part, Fastorslow was not flattered by this encounter, either. He jumped less fluently than can be the case and was compromised by the deputising O’Connor’s combative tactics – deputising for injured JJ Slevin – which forced him to commit precipitately against an all-up Grade One rival from the top of the straight. He and Galopin Des Champs – thorough stayers, both – were outsprinted by a pair of talented second-season chasers over 2m4f as a result.

So, bring on the many and varied re-matches! But for now, I’m siding with Galopin Des Champs emulating Best Mate and making it a hat-trick of Gold Cups in March – particularly as he’s still not favourite to do so.

There was a yawning gap back to fifth-placed Minella Cocooner, who is not a Grade One chaser but shaped well enough on his return to suggest he should attempt to supplement his Bet365 Gold Cup win of last season with a tilt at the Grand National. Yet further behind in sixth, Journey With Me did not jump well enough and, we can now definitively say, is not this class.

Early signs are the latter comments also apply to Inowthewayurthinkin, whose trainer Gavin Cromwell had said beforehand that he’d be delighted with a place in this line-up. He was disappointed – and predictably so. As predicted in the opening Road To Cheltenham show of this series, this second-season chaser’s jumping did not make the grade, 

At Haydock the previous day, to retain his title Royale Pagaille had out-streeted and out-stayed Grey Dawning on the latter’s first steps into open Grade One company for the Betfair Chase. Britain’s feature race of the weekend took place in deteriorating ground, making its three-mile trip a thorough test of stamina. The official going will say ‘soft’ but the times scream ‘heavy’ to the extent it’s impossible to understand why it was not amended during racing.

The winner can jump more boldly than he did on this occasion. His style was always essentially low-slung and French in the past, rendering him particularly vulnerable to a downhill fence, yet on Saturday he was careful on the first circuit, repeatedly putting in an extra stride down the back straight and getting into the bottom of fences. Then, he made a series of minor mistakes second time around.

He’s a horse with a history of habitual overreaches when jumping, not to mention far more serious injuries, such as a fractured shoulder as a result of his Cotswold Chase fall in January. Trainer Venetia Williams had certainly got him fit for his first start since that unfortunate experience, but her charge may well have remembered it.

However, it was Grey Dawning’s more sizeable and critically timed error that decided the race. This second-season chaser had given Haydock’s enfeebled fences a lot more air than Royale Pagaille, looking novicey and too exuberant at times for the prevailing conditions. He was unfortunate five out when over-jumping, knuckling on landing and nodding, but in too close at the next.

Harry Skelton waited to challenge until the slog to the last, his mount working hard to go about two lengths up. Yet it never looked likely to be a done deal, as Skelton’s body language suggested he was desperately conserving his mount’s remaining energy and Royale Pagaille is a thorough stayer, fully at home in these conditions. He would also have been in prime condition for a Grade One event that suits him like no other whereas Grey Dawning – though, as was well communicated by the Skeltons, fitter than usual for his seasonal debut – has his whole season ahead of him.

What put their encounter beyond doubt was the younger horse’s ingrained habit of adjusting left. He shifted markedly when asked up at the last, instead running into the fence, bunny-hopping it, and losing valuable momentum. It looked like the self-preserving tactic of a tired horse. Although he bravely kept plugging on, he was always being held once the winner overtook, and the margin was widening near the line even before Skelton accepted his fate.

Rising eleven, Royale Pagaille has entered the veteran era but he’s clearly still capable of a top-drawer performance in the right circumstances. Sadly – lumping top-weight over the course and distance in the Peter Marsh Chase aside – he’ll likely have to wait another 12 months for that opportunity.

Owner Rich Ricci – who, with his wife Susannah, was celebrating their 100th worldwide Graded or Group success in the Betfair Chase – would like another crack at the King George and why not? Royale Pagaille has run pretty well at Kempton before, inheriting second in the 2022 edition when stablemate L’Homme Pressé unseated at the last, but that’s still a level below his Haydock form.

This contest was also what Racing Inc. came memetically to call “a grueller” last season, so it may take some recovering from. Certainly, Dan Skelton was in no immediate hurry to rush Grey Dawning back to the track, albeit he has since reported the horse has come out of this exhausting encounter in good heart.

ITV analysts argued Skelton had committed too soon on Grey Dawning, and I can see the argument that if you’re conserving energy for one crack at glory, you’d better go the whole hog and produce your challenge at or after the last and not just before it. However, I suspect Royale Pagaille would have rallied anyway, and Grey Dawning would still have paddled. It might have been close, thought, and surely closer.

The runner-up showed more than enough to confirm he’s capable of making the leap from top novice events to mixing it in open Grade One company, albeit he will still need to improve again. He’ll need a 12lb better performance at least to trouble Galopin Des Champs, for example, and Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower have already made the sharper transition into the big league.

Yet Grey Dawning is to my mind perhaps the likeliest to be suited to the Gold Cup task of these smart second-season chasers. Check out both his Warwick wins if you’re inclined to think he isn’t a thorough stayer. Akin to Galopin Des Champs when he was transitioning out of novice company, he just needs to waste less energy over his fences and will be just as effective on a sounder surface.

Back in third at Haydock, Bravemansgame rallied past non-staying Gold Tweet to finish 12 lengths adrift. On his toes and sweating beforehand – a characteristic trait rather than, I’d suggest, the result of first-time blinkers – he raced wide under Sam Twiston-Davies (usual rider Harry Cobden being at Ascot, on which more later) and drifted back to mid-division on the first circuit.

He lost his pitch further via a slow jump at the 12th and jamming on the brakes five out, but rallied for minor honours in the straight without even fleetingly posing a threat. Trainer Paul Nicholls is talking Grand National now that his charge is finally falling in the weights, but I’d like to be sure of his nadir before getting interested.

The French raider – ridden by a jockey, Gabin Meunier, having his first ride in Britain – on the other hand ran far better than his losing margin suggests. Gold Tweet, who carries his punky-looking tail high, travelled perhaps overly strongly in the conditions and his stamina evaporated abruptly three out.

The mare Limerick Lace was never remotely involved but distantly completed whereas owner-mate Capodanno – supplemented into this race by JP McManus – predictably jumped awkwardly and couldn’t lie up. He’s not cut out for a slog either.

Derek Fox again dropped Ahoy Senor out and – just as when he shoulda woulda coulda won Aintree’s Old Roan Chase on seasonal debut – the great big klutz jumped far better than is usually the case. However, after racing far too keenly, a thorough stamina test appeared not to be his bag – not for the first time.

Both The Real Whacker and Hewick were withdrawn due to the ground, potentially ceding them a freshness advantage for the King George. Shark Hanlon insisted Hewick would miss Kempton, however, if the ground was too testing. Yet that going rarely becomes a mud-bath, which is why the track is so important if we want top-class horses to race in Britain at all over Christmas.

Cobden made the right choice in heading to Ascot, where Pic D’Orhy was successful for the second year running in the Copybet 1965 Chase. Returning from his summer break when he underwent wind surgery for the third time, he lacked his usual exuberance but still dominated the race under a soft solo lead until briefly looking vulnerable between the last two fences, presumably due to a lack of hard fitness.

This was a poor Grade Two on the day, however, with 128-rated Hidden Depths – admittedly in form and race-fit – wrestling second from versatile 11-year-old Dashel Drasher, who frequently needs his first outing of the season but is also knocking on a bit.

Distant fourth Flegmatik, outclassed but not overly exerted once some slow leaps took him out of touch, is now 3lb lower than his most recent winning mark. He is one to take notice of back in handicaps on a right-handed track once headgear is reapplied.

In the next race, Beauport proved something of a revelation by upgrading his form considerably in the hands of amateur Toby McCain-Mitchell and dispensing a 31-lengths beating to The Big Breakaway in Ascot’s 3m5f Berkshire National handicap chase from a mark of 144. The winner has since been thumped up by 12lb by the official handicapper, but could defy that rise if reproducing form the clock says does not deceive your eyes.

Moments earlier, the mercurial but talented Trelawne made a winning return to action in Haydock’s 2m5f graduation chase for a near-tearful Kim Bailey, who has clearly invested great belief in the horse. Like Beauport, Trelawne jumped better than can be the case when accompanied in the early stages by returning giant Hillcrest (discussed in the novices’ section), then taking over at the ninth and decisively kicking for home when jumping particularly well four out.

Perhaps conscious of the deteriorating conditions and not wanting to win too far on a long-pinpointed National prospect, Jonjo O’Neill Jnr seemed confident of picking him up on Iroko as they crept steadily closer. A mistake from Trelawne, hitting the last halfway up, briefly gave him hope his confidence was well placed, but the winner also gallops and stays. After a sustained tussle, he was holding the favourite near the line for a career-best success.

Bailey reported that Trelawne had “frightened himself” and was sore after falling at merely the second fence in the Festival’s Ultima Handicap last March, but had returned from his summer break “a different horse”. He mentioned Cheltenham’s Grade Two Cotswold Chase in January as a potential mid-season target, but the horse is also entered in the Welsh National – a race for which the handicapper has raised him 8lb to 152.

The runner-up shaped last season as though Aintree’s National trip would suit. Here, he did well to pick up the winner from further back, having jumped well – albeit that’s not the weapon it once was for Aintree.

Tahmuras ran well until stamina, fitness or will ran out between the third and second last fences and he faded two places into fifth. He may be best at left-handed tracks and the suspicion remains from last season that he isn’t one to rely on in the trenches.

Eyes down, Ballyburn is up next. Displaying his characteristic lemmegofaster low head carriage, he set off in front from the outset on his Punchestown chase debut under Paul Townend and never saw another rival.

Behind, stablemate Ocastle Des Mottes jumped alarmingly at times but still managed to haul himself into second at the last, passing the tiring Dee Capo, who paid the price for trying to keep tabs on the winner – mistakes creeping in late and losing two places late on. He ran better than it might seem from his finishing position.

Splitting them in third was lightly raced and promising Release The Beast, who jumped well, whilst Ataboycharlie had a sign flashing ‘back me in a handicap’ above his head. On his third start over fences in 12 months, with yawning absences punctuating each, 2023 Coral Cup runner-up An Epic Song again jumped chronically left. Maybe he’ll be transformed when stripping fitter on a left-handed track but he doesn’t seem to have transferred his ability to the larger obstacles.

To return to the winner, Ballyburn’s jumping was sound but novicey at times and he maintained a solid gallop, meaning none of his rivals had the pace to put him under pressure at his fences. It won’t always be that way. That he was shortened to a best-priced 15/8 for the Arkle is verging on hysterical.

The following day, Touch Me Not made at least as good an impression when setting a strong pace, jumping slickly and pretty much making all to win the Grade Two Craddockstown Novice Chase at the same track. An enthusiastic, high-mettled character, lively in the preliminaries, his switch to fences has clearly been transformative.

Lightly raced and unambitiously campaigned by Elliott in four starts as a novice hurdler, he had fallen on his only start in Points when trained in Britain by Tom Ellis. Returning from almost six months off at this track on chase debut earlier in the month, he had shaped well when narrowly beaten by Fascile Mode.

With a touch of kismet, Touch Me Not may have contributed to that horse’s departure here by shifting right in front of him on take-off at the second, with the knock-on effect of taking the legs from under Jordans and bringing him down.

That’s the only nit to pick so far with the winner – a tendency to adjust right which, given the unfettered way that he goes, could cause him to waste energy were he to line up in an Arkle on Cheltenham’s ever-turning Old Course. He’s currently quoted at 40/1 for that race, which undervalues the worth of this effort.

It must be said he also appeared to jump a bit straighter late on, albeit at a right-handed track. He can surely be forgiven his momentary distractedness when eyeing the wing four out, requiring a tap from Sam Ewing to concentrate, because Jordans had just run loose across him and taken his eye.

Runner-up Farren Glory – who actually jumped better than during his windy winning round at Naas – simply didn’t have the pace to reach the winner, let alone pressurise him. Both he and third-placed Nurburgring shaped as though needing further. The latter is still just four years of age and found the speed of the race stretched his jumping, but he stuck to his task likeably.

Elliott won both of Punchestown’s graded novice-chasing events last weekend. He couldn’t have failed to succeed in the Grade Two Florida Pearl Novice Chase, however, given he trained and Gigginstown owned all three participants.

This dawdle of a race only avoided being a total farce due to the excitement of a close finish between two indolent horses. If Search For Glory had more guts, he’d surely have beaten more fancied stablemate Stellar Story, last term’s advantageously ridden Albert Bartlett winner. There’s a reason why both wear cheekpieces.

On duty at Punchestown for Racing TV, Walsh had described 8/15 favourite Stellar Story – the only horse of the trio both to be making his seasonal debut and seeing fences for the first time in public – as the “roundest” of the three in the paddock. His comparative lack of fitness, an inaptitude for making his own running and a highly novicey round of jumping also opened the door to a less decorated rival.

Search For Glory initially set out in front but after being outjumped by the winner at two of the first seven fences, he was headed. Yet Stellar Story proved equally unsuited to making his own running and almost immediately began to drop anchor in front and even had to be urged to cross a path. He added some safety steps on the approach to the ninth and then stood off too far six out, pretty much landing on it but somehow engaging his landing gear.

Unsurprisingly, his confidence was then knocked, stuttering into the next and giving four out a lot of air. Shaken up three out, he edged right and Search For Glory looked to be going better as the pair rounded the home turn. Kennedy allowed the winner to find his own stride into the second last before issuing a reminder and asking for effort, to which his mount responded but also hung right.

However, he jumped the last better than his challenger, who had dragged his hind legs through the second last and put in a safety stride rather than attacking the final fence as Ewing had requested, resulting in him ramming through the top of it.

Although Search For Glory narrowed the margin all the way to the line, he shifted left into his jockey’s whip and ducked away from the battle the moment Ewing let up the pressure at the line. The horse’s sense of relief at failing to get up was almost palpable.

Back in third, both Jody McGarvey and Rainbow Trail were intent on getting round in one piece after the horse had taken a heavy fall at this same track behind Jordans last month. Having been restrained in last, this low-actioned horse was too close into two out and highly careful, despite being ridden into the last. 

On paper, he ran as well as could be expected, however – a clear career best – but he was flattered by a crawling pace and his jumping doesn’t look reliable. His Gowran win on chase debut in October was at the very least aided by Encanto Bruno being pulled up with an overreach on the home turn.

The first two should do better with experience and in more conventional circumstances – getting a lead in a well-run race – but the runner-up could not be more inaptly named. Glory is certainly not what he’s searching for. I don’t expect Stellar Story to make an impact at chasing’s top table either, but for different reasons. He’ll be very effective in handicap company over marathon trips, though.

Back in Britain on the same day, debutant novices Deafening Silence and Hillcrest acquitted themselves with some credit against more experienced rivals in Haydock’s 2m5f graduation chase.

The former was having just his fourth start under Rules, albeit he’d beaten future Cheltenham Hunter Chase heroine Sine Nomine – who dipped her toe into handicap company at Market Rasen on Wednesday, unseating five out – in his only completed Point at Alnwick back in December 2021.

At Haydock Deafening Silence’s jumping began scrappily, tending to adjust right, and towards the end it was a shade deliberate. Yet he stayed on steadily in the style of novice who’ll relish three miles in the mud this winter.

Grade Two-winning novice hurdler and cult hero Hillcrest was fit enough to mix it up front with the more experienced Trelawne for the first eight fences on his first start for 981 days, but he was on the back foot from being outjumped at the ninth, and blundered two fences later. He bravely stuck to his task, however, until plainly blowing up four out. What Henry Daly is able to salvage of this massive nine-year-old’s once-promising career remains to be seen, but his charge clearly retains plenty of ability despite being beaten 17 lengths into fourth here.

Two days later at Kempton, Iberico Lord proved a capable understudy when Sir Gino was rerouted to this Saturday’s Fighting Fifth from his intended target in the 2m2f novices’ event that had launched the chasing careers of illustrious stablemates, Altior and Shishkin. To say his jumping warmed up would be something of an understatement.

“He started the race looking like a hurdler and finished it looking like a steeplechaser,” Henderson remarked to Nick Luck in an informative and wide-ranging interview for Racing TV, packed full of bonnes mots.

Indeed, Iberico Lord was flat-footed and clumsy over pretty much every one of the first ten fences, enabling left-leaping Leave Of Absence to give him more of a race than their respective careers to date would have suggested. However, the winner jumped the third last well and immediately loomed large, with de Boinville seeking company until after the last, which his mount also jumped well.

The runner-up hadn’t made the track in 758 days, debuting here in a first-time tongue-tie for Anthony Honeyball after winning a brace of bumpers and his sole start over hurdles for Chris Gordon. His own jumping wasn’t especially fluent, as he tended to stutter into his obstacles and increasingly adjust left, but it was still a creditable first effort over fences.

Sadly, the race otherwise fell apart with The Four Sixes folding markedly entering the straight and Cheltenham Grade Two-winning novice hurdler Gidleigh Park also pulled up at an earlier stage. Having felt his mount jump low at the fourth and fifth, wobbling left at the latter, Bryan Carver promptly pulled up and dismounted Harry Fry’s charge. The attending vet later reported to the stewards that Gidleigh Park was found to have an irregular heartbeat.

Henderson dismissed Iberico Lord taking on the likes of recent impressive Cheltenham winner L’Eau Du Sud in next month’s Grade One Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown, suggesting his representative needed more match practice at a lower level. However, coming back to Kempton for the Grade Two Wayward Lad over Christmas was conceded as a possibility.

The trainer also reported he’d brought Jeriko Du Reponet to Kempton to walk him through the basics of getting saddled and entering the paddock at a racecourse after he “went ballistic” prior to his chase debut at Sandown earlier in the month. Intriguingly, that horse is in Newbury’s Gerry Feilden intermediate hurdle this Saturday and it is clearly not impossible he might revert to the smaller obstacles, despite “jumping [fences] so well at home”.