Paddy's Pick 5: our top tips for Saturday's £75,000 game

Any significant support for Regarding Ruth should be taken seriously, given her progress over this trip when last seen back in 2021, but perhaps it is significant that he is ridden by the stable’s conditional jockey rather than Bryony Frost, who was on board for his three most recent wins.

She rides Flemenstide for her own boss Paul Nicholls, a horse who clearly didn’t give his running last time, but the more interesting Ditcheat inmate is likely favourite Barbados Buck’s. He’s clearly not as talented as his dam’s half-brother Big Buck’s (who won eight of his 10 starts at the Berkshire venue) but looks capable of winning from this mark of 128.

The nod, however, in our opening bid for the £75,000 Paddy’s Pick 5 prize, goes to JAY BEE WHY. At first glance he didn’t seem to last home when tried over a similar trip at Market Rasen last May, but it may just be that he got lonely there once hitting the front and there’s a good chance that first-time cheekpieces will help his concentration late on here. Like Barbados Buck’s, this (lifetime low) mark of 128 looks a feasible one and it is interesting that his trainer won this race in 2018 with a similarly unexposed sort over three miles.

Annual Invictus was fourth in the 2021 Betfair Hurdle so has a big handicap effort at the track to his name, as well as recent winning form, having seen off 11 rivals at Cheltenham in November. He’s been beaten twice since, but rates better than his latest effort at Wincanton.

Jatiluwih, who is back with Philip Hobbs having failed in a bid to make the 2021 Cheltenham Foxhunter’s line-up, is respected with this larger field likely to help him settle better. West To The Bridge hit form this time last year and he's probably one to be interested in again now after a modest Autumn/Winter.

It’s too early to state categorically that Hitman doesn’t stay this trip, as he bled when sent off just 11/1 for the King George last time, but he certainly has questions to answer despite this drop in class. As a result, the short-priced favourite won’t be getting our vote in his bid to emulate his 10 stablemates who have all won this race this century (which is now named after former stable star Denman, who won the 2008 renewal).

Of those towards the head of the betting, last year’s winner Eldorado Allen makes some appeal, but his price looks skinny enough, for all that a repeat of either that run or his King George fourth would more than likely be enough to win. He has a 6lb penalty to shoulder here, though, and is reluctantly passed over.

Connections of Eldorado Allen, Fanion D’Estruval and Sam Brown all reach for cheekpieces. The latter pair have plenty of proven handicap form, but need to step up again, a comment that also applies to Kalashnikov who has a strong course record but is now fitted with blinkers after a poor run last time out.

Jumping has often held Does He Know back, but he put in a more fluent display at Cheltenham back in November. There’s a sense that connections have been forced into this grade, with the horse not the biggest to carry huge weights in handicaps, but he’s far from discounted.

Finally, and hopefully worth the lengthy preamble, is ZANZA. The bookies have priced him up as the outsider of the bunch but that looks risky given the horse’s excellent course record. He won a handicap hurdle here as a novice in 2019, and added another course win later that year. He was well backed when winning over fences here in late 2020 and then gained his first win since (after a real spell in the doldrums) when victorious here in November. He has something to find on ratings, and there is still a nagging doubt over his stamina for this trip, but under ideal conditions he is could be worth chancing - especially if you don't want to share the £75,000 prize money in this week's Pick 5!

'Ah yes, a good old big-field handicap to solve - as expected. What do you mean it’s an 80-109 hurdle at Naas? Is life/Betfair Hurdle Day not hard enough already?'

Listenheretomejack needed every yard on testing ground when winning at Gowran last time, and may find conditions - rather than an 8lb higher mark - a stumbling block here. Preference is for the unexposed LUIMNEACH who has improved since going handicapping, most notably when winning at Limerick in November, and the handicapper may have been a little hasty in dropping him 1lb for his latest outing.

Any money for handicap debutant Jump The Shark might be worth heeding, but a much more solid level of form is provided by recent Punchestown third Ernie From Nurney, Limerick runner-up Bal De Rio, and Look Don't Touch. The last-named has been beaten three lengths or less on his last two starts and is respected, but is yet to strike in 16 starts. Knocknagappagh brings a similar strike-rate to the table, albeit in half the number of outings, while French recruit Falvio showed a little more on his handicap debut last month, and looks the pick of the remainder accordingly.

Ah, the famous 3:13 race at Warwick, which shares its name not only with the time I ususally remember that I’m supposed to be picking the kids up from school, but also a famous Biblical passage from the book of James: “Who is wise and understanding among you?”

Depends on the selections, I suppose.

Connections of Altobelli have done well at the track in the past, so he is respected, for all his Ffos Las win looks fairly modest, but the strongest piece of form comes from HULLNBACK and he is the clear one to beat. He looked a classy sort in bumpers last term, finishing second in the big Aintree finale, and has translated that ability to hurdles, pulling a long way clear with the runner-up (who has since been placed in the Tolworth) when winning at Haydock last month. A repeat of that should be enough.

Gitche Gumee was an expensive failure here in November and looked a similarly tricky ride when beaten at Chepstow the following month, albeit not as errant as Matata who ran out early on at Wincanton the other day. Of more interest are the more reliable pair of Richhill and Densworth, along with Arqoob. The latter bumped into a potentially nice sort when second on his hurdling bow at Huntingdon and brings plenty of classy Flat form (Sandown winner off 89) to the table.

The purchase of Filey Bay by JP McManus suggests that he received an encouraging report from his jockey Richie McLernon following the horse’s win in the fog at Wincanton last time. The relatively bunched finish might suggest it isn’t outstanding form, but actually the horses in behind have franked the form in an understated way. A 9lb higher mark may still be lenient, but he is passed over in this much deeper race.

McManus can still have the last laugh, though, with ICARE ALLEN. His strong juvenile hurdling form from last season included two runs behind Vauban, most notably when fourth in the Triumph at Cheltenham. He hasn’t found the winner’s enclosure in two Fairyhouse starts since, but caught the eye when third last month and this 6lb higher mark looks navigable.

Hacker Des Places picked up a 5lb penalty for his Cheltenham win last month, and he looks very progressive, a comment that also applies to stablemate Rubaud who chased home Rare Edition at Kempton last time. Novices have a strong record in this race, a point underlined by the 2021 winner Soaring Glory.

There’s a suspicion that Monviel has been saved for this since dotting up at Ascot in November, and he joins recent winners No Ordinary Joe, Teddy Blue and Deere Mark on what is a lengthening list of dangers. The pick of those may be (another McManus runner) No Ordinary Joe, who benefitted from a more patient ride when winning at Kempton when last seen, and could relish this sort of assignment once more.

Those looking to side with runners at bigger prices could do worse than focus on Glory And Fortune and Faivoir. A tumbling mark, return to a big Saturday handicap and the application of cheekpieces will suit the latter, while last year’s winner Glory And Fortune is only 5lb higher on his return to hurdles. He beat subsequent Greatwood Hurdle winner I Like To Move It and Gerry Feilden victor First Street 12 months ago and his trainer has been in bullish form this week: “I think he’s grossly overlooked. I’d only be pleased with a win on Saturday, that’s the idea of the game.” Indeed.