Paddy's Pick 5: Our tips for Saturday's £25,000 game

By Tom Thurgood@tdthurgood
Fri 12 Aug 2022

Read all about the first-ever Paddy Pick 5 winner who took home a cool £30,000 after picking five winners at the Goodwood & Galway Festivals.

No less than £25,000 is up for grabs on Saturday in Paddy’s Pick 5 competition, which is free to enter. All you need to do is find the winner of the five chosen races. Easy!

The competition is open to all Paddy Power customers, and the full terms and conditions for the competition can be found here. To enter, simply click on 'start' below and pick your selections.

Don't forget our Racing TV racecards include Timeform comments, pace maps, live odds, Timeform ratings and much more, so make sure to take advantage when studying the form for each race:

15:00 Newbury - Play Pick 6 at Betvictor Handicap

15:18 Newmarket - Grey Horse Handicap

15:35 Newbury - Hungerford Stakes

17:15 Curragh - Derek O'Sullivan Memorial Apprentice Handicap

17:50 Curragh - Holden Plant Rentals Handicap

3.00 Newbury - Play 6 At Betvictor Handicap

Dance Fever has slowly crept down the weights despite some sound efforts this season and can strike for the first time this term now back down to his last winning mark.

He disappointed at the Royal meeting three starts ago, but that's not the first time he hasn't run to form at Ascot while he did have the highest draw and was subsequently left poorly placed. However, he's bounced back on his last two efforts over this trip on similarly quick ground and was particularly well-supported at Doncaster two starts ago. Now, he receives weight from higher-rated rivals who currently have more to prove regarding their current well-being.

This year's race is a 0-105 handicap, but trainer Clive Cox has won this race for the last two years in its former guise as a 0-95 contest and could land the hat-trick here.

3.18 Newmarket - Grey Horse Handicap

This is trappy and, with my original fancy Mister Bluebird ruled out overnight, I'm taking a chance on Lord Rapscallion given he could get potentially get the run of things here at a track that suits front-runners.

He's only raced over six furlongs on six occasions from 22 starts for Stuart Williams and, in a handicap with some slow quirky slow-starters and horses who can run keen, there looks a window for him to take this race by the scruff of the neck now he steps down from seven furlongs under first-time rider Callum Shepherd.

He's yet to really force the issue over six furlongs and maybe that can eke a bit more out of him, while it was only little more than a year ago that he was posting really decent form with placed efforts in the Buckingham Palace and Bunbury Cup from higher marks.

Hopefully he can show some spark with a forward ride against not particularly compelling opposition.

3.35 Newbury – Hungerford Stakes

A similarly lightly-raced three-year-old heads the market for last year’s winning combination of Tom Marquand and William Haggas, but whether Tiber Flow should lead the way on the formbook is open to more question.

Older horses and those who have performed well over sprinting trips have fared better here over the last decade than might be expected given this race is run over the specialist seven-furlong distance, but one performer who is genuinely best at this trip is Pogo. He is enjoying a career-best season and ran with credit once again when narrowly beaten in the Lennox Stakes last time. Of all the protagonists, he looks the one you’d bank on to go close.

Double Or Bubble is respected at a bigger price after shaping well on the disadvantageous stands-side part of the track in the July Cup, a race which several Hungerford winners in recent years contested beforehand, while 16/1 chance Run To Freedom can shape better than his odds suggest.

5.15 Curragh - Sycamore Lodge Equine Hospital Derek O'Sullivan Memorial Apprentice Handicap

You’re going to have to work for this £25,000, with a fairly low-grade 20-runner apprentice handicap one of two puzzles to solve at the Curragh.

I thought this was difficult, with a hole or two seemingly to be found in each and every one of these.

Reverberation looks off-putting from the widest draw in stall 20, but he was only just denied in this race last year from stall 19 and the seven-year-old is now rated 12lb lower. In this apprentice handicap, the booking of the excellent Dylan Browne McMonagle also really catches the eye.

Reverberation’s losing streak now stands at 35 and he wasn’t in great form back in the spring and early summer, but he performed with credit at Dundalk over the winter and in his last three starts at Down Royal and Leopardstown has finished in front of 39 rivals from a possible 46 (84.8% of rivals beaten).

The favourite The Pargey Bee is unlikely to be missed here after looking unlucky at Galway last time but he’s on a career-high mark and Siobhan Rutledge is unable to claim off him here, while John McConnell only has one handicap winner at the Curragh from 92 attempts so far.

5.50 Curragh – Holden Plant Rentals Handicap

Another tricky event, but one where it could prove beneficial to focus towards the top of the market.

Interestingly, sticking towards the top of the betting in big 16+ runner handicaps at the Curragh since 2011 has not proven the worst starting position – these horses are clearly better fancied but, still, you’d have found 16.6% of the winners from just 7.9% of the total runners at overall performance not far below that expected by the market (0.9 A/E).

Royal Tribute is the favourite here and looks the foremost contender of Denis Hogan’s four runners, with the booking of top jockey Declan McDonogh potentially significant in that regard – I can’t see evidence of jockey and trainer having teamed up on the track before.

Unlike plenty of these, Royal Tribute is progressing and bar a disappointment when finishing last at Cork in May has form figures of 122 on decent ground over seven furlongs on turf, beating no less than 40 out of 42 rivals in those three starts.

Although he’s creeping up the weights, he has an attractive racing weight of 9st 11lbs here – 9lbs below the top-weight Shabaaby.

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