Matt Tombs: The novices worth backing now in the handicaps

Over the last couple of seasons there has been an increasing amount of chat about novices in the big handicaps and whether (and if so on what terms) they should be allowed to compete. 

Ever more pundits and punters are saying that ‘handicaps should be for handicappers’ and that, at the Festival, the better novices should run in the Grade One novices (many of which have much smaller fields and are less competitive than 10-20 years ago.) 

The rules at the Festival were changed for 2025.  All horses, whether novices or not, have to have had: 

·      Four starts over fences to run in a handicap chase 

·      Five starts over hurdles to run in a handicap hurdle 

(NB – these rules don’t apply to the two novice handicap chases or the juvenile handicap hurdle where the requirement is three runs.)

The reason for extending the minimum run requirement to non-novices was to stop the Aux Ptits Soins / Sir Des Champs situation. Both had won their only hurdles start the previous season and had made only one appearance in the season they won the Coral Cup & Martin Pipe respectively. 

Such runners at the Festival are rare and so rather than focus on the number of runs over obstacles, which brings in horses that have had issues, I’ve delved into the record of novices in handicaps to see: 

·      How well they are doing 

·      Whether the market prices them accurately 

·      What impact the new rules for 2025 are likely to have 

It’s worth starting with some basic stats about the eight handicaps run at the 2024 Festival, (the Fred Winter being ignored as although not literally a novices-only race, it’s close to it).  This century novices have comprised 23% of the fields and have won 32% of the renewals.  

There is a wider acceptance now that the advantage of being unexposed often trumps a lack of experience – and so more novices run.  In the last five years 30% of those fields have been novices with 53% won by a novice.  

It will surprise few how well novices have done – and I think there are two additional reasons for that which don’t get much attention.  

The first is the ground. This century, until 2018, the drainage system at Cheltenham had tended to provide a sound surface. When watering started mid-way through the first decade of the century it was to keep the word ‘firm’ out of the going description.  15 of the first 17 Festivals this century began (officially) on a sound surface - ie either good (six) or good to soft (nine). 

Now so much watering goes on in the autumn, especially on the Old Course used for the October and November meetings, the Festival is regularly run on testing ground, (six of the last seven Supremes have been run on officially soft or worse and the year that didn’t happen the Bumper nearly had to be abandoned for water-logging the next day.) The tempo of big-field handicaps is inevitably slower on softer ground and that arguably makes it easier for inexperienced novices to cope with the hurly-burly of a race like the Ultima or County Hurdle. 

The second is the softening of the fences, which must reduce the advantage of chasing experience and so make it easier for novices in the handicap chases.  When comparing the whole century to the last five years, the percentage of these handicap hurdles won by novices has increased from 27% to 40% but in these handicap chases it has increased from 36% to 65%.  (The fact that novices win more handicap chases than handicap hurdles suggests that requiring more runs over hurdles than fences is an anomaly - in 2000 Samakaan won the Grand Annual just 41 days after his chasing debut!) 

What was noticeable last year was not just that five of those eight handicaps were won by novices - but how novices dominated the races.  The first four home in the Grand Annual and Martin Pipe were novices, (which had only happened twice before in any of those eight races all century.) Novices are not just winning but dominating some of these handicaps now.  

It’s important to note that there are two exceptions.  Most importantly, the Coral Cup. There is no Open Grade One at the trip and so it has tended to attract more high-class horses than the other handicaps. I think there may also be an element of intermediate trips being the poor relation and those high-class horses near the top of the weights can be given lower marks than if they’d shown equivalent form at 2m or 3m. 

That makes it easier to give the weight away by outclassing their opponents.  In 31 Coral Cups so far no first-season hurdler has won, although one second-season novice has triumphed - What’s Up Boys. (The Martin Pipe, over a similar trip, has a 145 ceiling, which excludes those classier seasoned hurdlers and tends to be the target for unexposed novices wanting an intermediate trip.) 

The other is the Pertemps Final, due to its qualification system. In order to run in the Irish qualifiers novices need to have run three times over hurdles, in the British qualifiers novices have to have had four runs over hurdles.  For the first time last season there were three rather than two qualifiers in Ireland but only one is after the turn of the year, which makes it hard for first season hurdlers to qualify.  

This has led to the proportion of Pertemps runners that are novices being only 12% this century - in the last five years it’s also been 12% - compared to 23% in these eight handicaps overall.  Given the Pertemps is therefore more comprised of exposed handicappers, the few novices that do run ought to have a particularly good chance.  The difficulty of qualifying for the Pertemps Final is another reason why the staying novices get aimed at the Martin Pipe (where the conditionals tend to go quickly, making it a test of stamina at the intermediate trip). 

The grid below sets out how many novices have won each of these eight handicaps: 

So, how do the novices stack up as betting propositions?  The answer is that overall they don’t - at SP. It is too obvious a factor and in total they are over-bet. You’d have lost 39% of your betting bank backing them this century. Despite increased numerical success you’d have done even worse at the last five Festivals, losing 43% of your betting bank.  

Second-season novices can be under-bet as they don’t have the obvious sexy profile of first season novices. (For the avoidance of doubt, a “second-season novice” is a horse in their second season over those obstacles that didn’t win during their first and so retains novice status.) 

Second-season novices can be on a steep upward curve having taken time to get the hang of the discipline during their first season over those obstacles. Still being novices, they have the option of novice weight-for-age races, which can be a better route to an attractive handicap mark.   They have been profitable to follow in the: 

·      Grand Annual (4/29 – 97% profit) 

·      Kim Muir (3/41 – 49% profit) 

·      County Hurdle (6/54 – 53% profit) 

As alluded to above, fewer first season hurdlers run in the Pertemps but unsurprisingly those that run do well - 4/27 (67% profit). 

In reality the value with the ‘obvious’ novices is mainly ante-post now. Many punters like to wait for the declarations before betting in the handicaps, those races being complicated enough puzzles to solve even at that stage.  However, with modern markets the value often gets squeezed out in the run-up to the Festival, (especially in the more predictable handicaps like the Ultima.) 

Last year novices won five of those eight handicaps.  Two shortened what I’d term ‘normally’ from the prices after the six-day confirms were made: 

·      Chianti Classico (8/1 into 6/1 SP) 

·      Unexpected Party (16/1 into 12/1) 

Two were heavily backed: 

·      Inothewayurthinkin (7/2 into 13/8)  

·      Better Days Ahead (12/1 into 5/1, although that was in part due to collateral form) 

Only Absurde (12/1) remained unchanged in price as the consensus was that the ground had gone against him. 

I therefore think that if you do fancy a novice in one of these Festival handicaps, you should considering backing them soon.  Most bookmakers are now NRNB and so you get your money back if your horse doesn’t run but there is no Rule 4 if other market leaders come out.  

Historically, that was more a factor in the conditions races – but only two of these eight handicaps filled last year, (and we’ve two extra handicap chases over conventional fences this year).  It may be that we’ll have smaller fields than the ante-post markets are priced up on. If so, that’s going to make the market leaders, including plenty of novices, shorten up even more than usual. 

To give context to the impact of the new rules I’ve set out the handicap winners this century that would now not be eligible to run: 

The following eight winners had had only three runs over fences and so would no longer be eligible. 

Ultima - Chianti Classico (2024), Un Temps Pour Tout (2016) & Wichita Lineman (2009) 

Grand Annual - Chosen Mate (2020) & Samakaan (2000) 

Plate - The Storyteller (2018) & Great Endeavour (2010) 

Kim Muir - Mount Ida (2021) 

The position in the hurdles races is slightly more complicated as there are three categories of winners that wouldn’t be eligible in 2025: 

Firstly, three were already ineligible under the 2023 changes under which novices had to have had four runs not three: 

County - State Man (2022) & Saint Roi (2020) 

Pipe - Killultagh Vic (2015) 

Secondly, the six that had had four runs - and so are ineligible under the new rules: 

County - Absurde (2024), Final Approach (2011) & American Trilogy (2009) 

Pipe - Better Days Ahead (2024), Galopin Des Champs (2021) & Don Poli (2014) 

Finally, the pair I mentioned that weren’t novices but had had only two runs: 

Coral Cup - Aux Ptits Soins (2015) 

Pipe - Sir Des Champs (2011) 

In total eight of the handicap chase winners and 11 of the handicap hurdle winners wouldn’t be eligible to run this year.  That’s 10% of winners this century and 20% of winners at the last five Festivals. It’ll be interesting to see what impact the rule changes have on the results.  The most obvious impact is on Willie Mullins’ challenge for the County and Martin Pipe, which I’ve looked at below. 

The Kim Muir has been the best of these handicaps for novices recently, the last six winners all being novices.  Given that it’s an amateur riders race ran at around the Gold Cup trip, those novices that have been winning have tended to be a bit more experienced, (only Mount Ida would not be eligible under the new rules). 

There are plenty of novices amongst the entries to fancy but in the last five years Gordon Elliott’s novices have finished 114P4040 and Cleatus Poolaw could be an Elliott Kim Muir type.   Gigginstown often use crack Qualified Rider Rob James who can still claim 3lb in the Kim Muir. If the vibes are that Cleatus Poolaw is Elliott’s A-teamer for the Kim Muir, (he’s also in the Leinster National and is 6lb lower in Ireland,) he’s going to shorten quickly from his current 20/1. 

There will be much debate about whether the new requirement to have run five times over hurdles will stop Willie Mullins extending his excellent record in the County (7/56 – 83% profit) and Martin Pipe (4/31 - 15% profit).  Given that of those 11 winners only County winners Arctic Fire, Thousand Stars and Wicklow Brave would now be eligible, the obvious answer is yes. 

I don’t see Mullins changing his training methods significantly to get extra runs into his novices and so I suspect he may focus on those who had hurdles runs in France as his handicap projects. Kopek De Mee has been a buzz horse and would be making his stable debut for Mullins after five hurdles runs in France. 

None of Mullins’ 12 Festival handicap winners were stable debutants, although Gaelic Warrior went close in the Fred Winter. It’s not my betting style but for those who like betting on vibes Kopek De Mee may well go off shorter for whatever his target turns out to be so you can back him NRNB in anticipation of that. 

Of the Mullins novices in the County I’d be more interested in Karniquet whohad two hurdles runs in France and qualified with a fifth run in the Brave Inca at DRF.  He was a well-beaten 13l second to Kopek Des Bordes there, ridden out the back and running on past beaten horses - a run style that suits the County perfectly. 

There will be debate in the run-up whether his mark of 146 (2lb higher than in Ireland) means Karniquet is well handicapped because Kopek Des Bordes is an outstanding novice or whether the Mullins novices are badly handicapped under the new rules with his previous novice winners of the County having won off 138, 141 & 137. 

If you like Karniquet for the County then consider a related contingency double with Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme).  For a more adventurous treble Karafon, (who would run off 135, 3lb higher than in Ireland, in the Martin Pipe) could be added in.  

Karafon had good form with some of the top juveniles last season and his maiden win over 2m3½f has worked out.  He hasn’t shone in two Grade Ones over 2m since, including the Brave Inca, but might be a different proposition stepped back up in trip. Galopin Des Champs won the Martin Pipe after going off at 100/1 in the Brave Inca on his previous start. 

Last season, related form from the Navan and Brave Inca novice hurdles produced Slade Steel, Ballyburn, Absurde, Stellar Story and Better Days Ahead to win at the Festival. Constructing related contingency accumulators from one or two novice races that you think are hot form can create fun bets for small stakes – with the chance of a big payout.