Cheltenham Festival: six handicappers to note as weights revealed

Those who love nothing more than studying the formbook long into the night savour the day when the Cheltenham Festival handicap weights are revealed.

It's when guessing games about official ratings – in particular the Irish-trained horses - are extinguished and we can get properly stuck into solving some of the toughest jigsaws of the entire season.

Nobody will have had an opportunity to plough through all the hundreds of entries at this stage and there is more water to flow under the bridge in terms of knowing what the ground conditions will be and, in some instances, which jockeys will be utilised.

In addition, we don’t yet know who may have had a breathing operation since last running, or whether first-time headgear (or a change of headgear) will be used. In other words, we can see most of the picture, but some parts are still blurred. 

So, my advice is don’t be in too much of a rush to get stuck in. That said, the six below will be on my shortlists and, if nothing else, may offer opportunities to hedge. 

Race: Ultima Handicap Chase (Tuesday) Odds: general 12-1. 

This three-time Cheltenham winner fluffed his lines badly at the track on New Year’s Day, but he simply ran too bad to be true that day and it seems had an issue with his knees. He’d previously run a cracker when splitting Kandoo Kid and Victtorino in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, when he might well have won had he not made a mess of four out. The form looks solid and Broadway Boy is only 2lb higher in the ratings. Moreover, he’s had a light campaign and the Twiston-Davies camp has been in decent nick.

“He’s had his knees medicated since his bad run in January, which was completely unlike him when he never jumped a twig or went a yard. I thought he might pull him up after two or three, I was really disappointed with him," Willie Twiston-Davies, a ssistant to his father, Nigel, said at a media event at Cheltenham on Tuesday. “He’s in the form of his life, I struggle to think what could be better than him really. Obviously he’s rated 150 and this time last year he was a Brown Advisory and Gold Cup horse, so off 150 you’d like to think he’s well treated still.”

Race: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir (Thursday). Odds: 25-1 with Coral, Ladbrokes & Unibet. 

The was the original aim for Fantastic Lady this season, but the handicapper has dropped her 5lb for her three runs this season and consequently she is now rated 144 and has little chance of making the cut at Aintree. The silver lining is that she’s now able to have a crack at this contest, which is for horses rated no higher than 145. She’s a tremendously accurate jumper and her latest effort, when a staying-on third behind Don’t Rightly Know (who was getting 6lb) and Apple Away (getting 2lb) in a Listed contest over an extended 2m7f at Newbury, looks rock solid.

The progressive winner has since won another Listed prize, beating rivals rated 142 and 144 on unfavourable terms, while Apple Away has subsequently been a good second in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. Fantastic Lady is unproven beyond 3m, but she shapes like another two furlongs will be within her range and connections clearly do not believe it will be a problem given their Grand National aspirations. She looks a straightforward ride and should not be short of suitors after a satisfactory spin at Kempton on Tuesday. 

Race:  National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Chase (Tuesday) or the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir (Thursday). Odds: general 20-1 for both races 

It will be interesting to see which way David Pipe heads with this nine-year-old, not least because he looks well qualified for both these races. He’s evidently had issues, as he had been off 783 days before resurfacing at Windsor in mid-January. He was friendless in the betting but moved strongly for a long way before getting weary from two out. Gericault Roque has been dropped another 2lb and now figures on a mark of 131, which is 7lb lower than when he chased home Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima. Later that year, he was also placed in the Coral Gold Cup. He’s still only a nine-year-old and he must be a player if he can build on his belated comeback. 

Race: National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Tuesday) or the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir (Thursday). Odds: 16-1 for the NH Chase and 12-1 for the Kim Muir. 

The RaceiQ data confirms that this eight-year-old, who habitually races up with the pace, is a fabulous jumper. He got a Jump Index score of 9.6 in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last time, when he gained almost 23 lengths with his leaping. He deserved to win for his athleticism, but Perceval Legallois pegged him back.

That bare 3m at Leopardstown would be a minimum for Midnight Our Fred because he’s a thorough stayer. Whatever race is chosen for him at Cheltenham will suit him better and he’s proven at the track, finishing runner-up on each of his three previous visits (gained 15 lengths with his jumping on the latest occasion). Those defeats have come off lower marks than he will compete off at the Festival but he’s simply never been better. 

Race: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (Wednesday). Odds: general 8-1. 

Any horse who has not won since November 2020 – and has almost been retired during that time – would not be an obvious candidate for Festival glory. But you’ve got to make an exception for Mister Coffey, who actually got his head in front just today at Kempton (finished in front in a gallop with two stablemates and clearly on good terms with himself). He’s twice made the frame in Festival races in the past - second in the 2022 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir and third in the 2023 National Hunt Chase - and a switch to the cross-country arena this season has revived him.

He looked flattered to run Stumptown to a length at Cheltenham in December, although it’s hard to believe the winner - a top-priced 5-2 for this - can jump any better than he did that day (RaceiQ tells us he gained 19 lengths in the air) whereas Mister Coffey may well be able to up his game, given he was a sight for sore eyes for a long way in the 2023 Grand National. He will also be 5lb better off at the weights and Nico de Boinville will be on a high, having won the Champion Hurdle on Constitution Hill 24 hours earlier. Wink emoji. 

Race:  Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Tuesday) Odds: general 5-1. 

I’m a big fan of East India Dock, who looks to have a fabulous chance in the Triumph Hurdle, and consequently I’ve got to have Stensil on my side in this juvenile handicap. This French challenger kept tabs on East India Dock for a long way over course and distance on Trials Day, in January, but was unable to keep up with him in the closing stages. He still pulled 18 lengths clear of the third home and his jumping was most accomplished. A handicap mark of 135 may well underestimate him.