Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham: Santini has a golden glow

We’re on The Road again. Apologies for the unexpected pitstop. Put out that joint – this is a family column. Pass me the Wotsits, really feeeeel that tanbur and buckle up. We’ve got a lot of ground to cover and I’ll be asking questions at the end.

I’ve got a new ringtone. It resonates: “That’s about as far from a Gold Cup performance as you can get.”

I cherish it. Of course, point of order: I’m singing before I’m winning – or, more specifically, before Santini is winning the Gold Cup – but I’ll take a small victory just as happily as Ruby Walsh would pocket a Ryanair.

Close readers of The Road may recall that I backed Santini at 33-1 for this year’s Gold Cup in the hours after last year’s RSA, long before this series began. This is not intended as revisionism of the #insertyourpreferredaftertimer variety. I’ll be entirely honest: I only ended up backing him because I wanted to get on RSA winner Topofthegame at 14-1.

Having backed that horse, I noticed in passing that Santini was more than twice his price and yet I could readily construct an argument why he could turn that form around, so three minutes later I took a bit of that. I went on to argue my case in the opening Road of this series, immediately after his underwhelming reappearance at Sandown. To save repeating myself, it went thus:

Having watched Santini win the Cotswold Chase last Saturday, unexpectedly I’m almost as calm as I was post-Sandown because the prevailing 13-2 still underestimates his chances. Yet I still hold some doubts – and Walsh’s references to the Grand National later in that same conversation relate to those concerns.

Let’s get one thing straight: Santini’s defeat of Bristol De Mai was proper business. On the final circuit, the runner-up turned on the boosters and got some decent horses bang in trouble. The second half of the race was conducted at a pace 10.46 seconds faster than the first half.

Thus, as Bristol De Mai turned the screw, the temerity of running a Grade One-winning novice like Slate House or a jumped-up Ladbrokes Trophy winner like De Rasher Counter was ruthlessly exposed. Even eight-length Rowland Meyrick victor Top Ville Ben had to getouttatown.

But Santini was only just hanging on in there. Nico de Boinville had crouched lower in the saddle from a long, long way out and was niggling his mount to stay in touch. It’s to Santini’s great credit that, on only his fifth chase start and against a hardened high-class dictator like Bristol De Mai, he jumped so well under pressure. His leap three out kept him in the game.

That was where the grey front-runner’s metronomic rhythm failed him: clipping the top, he pecked markedly and became unbalanced, ceding the advantage to Santini. By contrast, the winner was magnificent and moved into a decisive lead.

Then at the penultimate fence, Santini made a mistake of his own, stuttering in and getting too close to negotiate it cleanly. Bristol De Mai, who’d already rallied to upsides, got away from the obstacle more swiftly and seized a half-length advantage. Both took the last cleanly but Santini’s superior stamina and aptitude for all aspects of the track saw him overtake on the final hill for a three-and-a-half-length victory.

Palpably, the winner will be suited by a furlong further in the Gold Cup. He has just defeated last year’s six-and-a-quarter-length third – a chaser twice officially rated 173 at his twin peaks, conceding him 2lb – who’d been permitted to wind up the pace unchallenged on the final circuit. In short, this is smart form. There were also a further 29 lengths back to the 164-rated Top Ville Ben, even if he is perhaps no lover of Cheltenham, and another short head to De Rasher Counter.

So, I’ve no quibble with the calibre of the form. I can understand why trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has huffily snatched up 33-1 each-way about Bristol De Mai. Yet some cheeky firms have since pushed him out to 40-1. Shade!

Nigel: I feel your pain. The same thing regularly happens to me (latest example: Chacun Pour Soi). But this might prove a handy lesson in value versus winning? #justsaying

Is this a good time to mention I’m worried that your horse’s career-best performance in last term’s Gold Cup came off a since-Christmas break? No? Sorry. Love the duffle. And the bus on the gallops. Both.

Focussing on the more likely Gold Cup winner, my concern is whether Santini will be able to hold his position in – crucially – a larger field when facing at least as strong a tempo in the Gold Cup. Granted, it may be that an end-to-end gallop would be more suitable and – as a stuffy type – he will be more primed for March than he was here, but that’s his Achilles’ heel, in my opinion.

Still, for this specific task, I prefer him to flat-earthers, the right-adjusting Kemboy and dual King George hero Clan Des Obeaux, last-time-out choker and unproven stayer Lostintranslation and scruffy jumper Delta Work. Therefore, to my mind, anything upwards of 9-2 looks a shade long.

The British handicapper has reassessed him at 171, an 8lb rise, which puts him 4lb shy of Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo – albeit they are different discrete scales. (Different discrete scales, do you hear me?

This point is admittedly less relevant when talking about seasoned chasers such as this pair but Ireland has a different weight-for-age scale, different novice-chasing qualifications and the hurdles medians of each are about 5lb different. But don’t trouble yourself with detail when raging repetitively about [insert Gigginstown horse], will you Mr O’Leary?)

Following an impressive reappearance and with the comfort of sticking to a winning formula (especially for a horse whom Patrick Mullins told us took “a while to get over his Gold Cup run last year – he was very light afterwards”), Al Boum Photo is the rightful favourite.

But Santini is his chief danger in my book. The operation to correct his breathing has been no bad thing and the fact his best chasing form has come at Cheltenham is a positive. The way he jumped under pressure last Saturday is likely to be a very necessary asset, if what I’m envisaging comes to pass, and I liked the way he responded to making a mistake and being headed.

Nicky Henderson’s post-race comments were encouraging. “He's not straightforward and he takes a hell of a lot of work,” he said. “He loves his work but he has given us little headaches along the way. Last year he gave us a terrible run into Cheltenham.

“His feet sometimes give him a bit of trouble and my farrier has done a brilliant job with him. His feet just need a bit of minding and you have to be careful. We were lucky to get him to Cheltenham at all last year whereas he’s had a pretty good run into Saturday.”

It sounds like the Seven Barrows team now have a sophisticated handle on Santini, as can only come with time when a horse is still maturing. On that basis, I suspect we’ve not yet seen his peak. Henderson thinks so, too. “I can't believe there isn't improvement in him – there has to be,” he said.

Yet he also believes Santini will be “better on better ground”, having also mentioned that amid various soul-searching after Sandown. I’m not so convinced and his form offers zero encouragement on that front. In fact, the primary threat to my mind – apart from the favourite – would be drying ground on the final day of the Festival.

With Kemboy, Delta Work and (in an enduring discontinuation of last season’s Scarlet Pimpernel act) Presenting Percy set to clash in the Irish Gold Cup this Sunday – and all currently trading at 10-1 or shorter – something’s gotta give. One of that trio or Santini is likely to be clear second favourite later that afternoon.

Either way, 13-2 Santini is going to come under pressure and, although I’m reluctant to recommend a horse I’ve backed at much better odds (hence the start of this section), I can’t see a better position coming along that suits my way of thinking as set out above. So, let’s get him backed.

Finally, an important footnote concerning Road To Respect, who will miss not only the Irish Gold Cup but the rest of the season because of a leg problem. That’s a great shame. I look forward to seeing this consistently high-class chaser return.

The Cheltenham Festival is a drug that makes gonzo jockeys – and trainers – out of otherwise sensible thinkers. Paul Townend is the latest to bogart the bong. Having staunchly maintained that Real Steel is better going right-handed, the first thing he apparently wanted to say when sliding from the saddle after winning at Thurles ten days ago was how straight his mount had jumped.

“I was very pleased with how Real Steel jumped in the second half of the race when he needed to and how he stayed on. I'd imagine we'll be looking at the Ryanair Chase with him. Paul said he was a straight as a die today, he commented that when he got off the horse. We had been concerned before but there was no bias in his jumping today,” said trainer Willie Mullins.

Hold the front page: Jockey-tells-Festival-focussed-trainer-that-horse-will-be-fine-going-left-handed shock. Not that Townend should be short of options – Mullins has ten entered, albeit the profiles of a clutch of stable companions have taken serious knocks in the past few weeks.

Thurles, of course, remains a right-handed track and so is perhaps not an ideal test-vehicle for finding out whether a horse is equally effective when racing the other way around. Examination of Real Steel’s form betrays that his best left-handed performances languish about a stone below this latest career high and about 10lb shy of his contemporaneous right-handed form when he last attempted such a task – finishing more than 18 lengths adrift of Defi Du Seuil in the JLT (now Marsh) Novices’ Chase.

Real Steel is undoubtedly an improved character this season, having already won a Down Royal Grade Two by a wide margin but been unsuited by a steadily run race and made a critical error at precisely the wrong moment at Punchestown last time out. I was impressed by how neat and clever he was at Thurles. No doubt he’s a smart horse in the right circumstances.

Yet he had hollow men to beat here. Stablemates pursued him in second and third: Footpad, inexplicably made the 8-11 favourite after a quick-folding third in the King George, found nil once headed by the winner and Voix Du Reve shaped to run out at the second last.

“I was disappointed with Footpad but he probably ran too free. The pace was probably a little bit slow and the horses up front weren't jumping at the speed you would expect in a race like this,” Mullins said. Excuses, excuses. I can’t have this horse on my mind.

One of the many informative things that Patrick Mullins said when he was a guest on Road To Cheltenham this month was that the team had “had a clear run with him” – that is, no recurrence of the over-reach or bleeding problems Footpad endured last season. On that basis, it’s difficult not to concur that he “doesn’t look the horse he was”.

Whisper it but surely the same applies to another stablemate, the hardy perennial Un De Sceaux? His two-and-three-quarter-length-defeat by Defi Du Seuil at Ascot 11 days ago was his worst run on paper since 2016 and his worst over fences since 2015. There was no fight: one stutter into the penultimate obstacle in the Grade One Clarence House and the race was over.

Afterwards, connections were ruing Townend not setting a stronger pace and it’s hard to understand why he didn’t. Assertive tactics over trips around two mile have always suited this horse best, more so with advancing years as he gets a pace slower, and his main rival was proven deadly when a quick change of gear is required, as demonstrated when he won the Shloer.

Un De Sceaux himself appeared to want to go faster, characteristically twisting his head to twist Townend’s arm on the matter in the early stages. But Mullins reported his jockey had said in the immediate aftermath that his mount “didn’t fire”. “We didn't improve from our last run, so I was very disappointed,” the trainer added.

Given how Mullins’ horses have been performing this season – running as though their first outing was very much needed – this may have been a particular disappointment, albeit Un De Sceaux’s go-ahead temperament perhaps doesn’t allow himself to be given an easy at home. Again, Patrick Mullins’ words are worth recalling.

“We haven’t had as clear a run for various different reasons with just getting hard, fast work into the horses and I would say we’ve been less hard on the horses this year than any other year that I can remember,” he said on Road To Cheltenham. “I think there’s far more improvement in all the horses for their first run.” Watch from 03:11 to 04:05 inclusive below.

Not quick enough for the Queen Mum whatever the ground any more, Un De Sceaux has found there have also been stronger stayers in the past two renewals of the Ryanair. His opening mark this season of 171 was a flattering translation of his end-of-term four-length defeat of stable companion Min at Punchestown. Even his reassessed 168 looks too high based on what he’s done this season. What that means for Defi is discussed in the Champion Chase section.

While we’re on the subject of former Ryanair winners whom I don’t fancy this year, let’s talk about the titleholder Frodon. He recovered enough form to win an Altior-less Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton this month – the race that, after a perplexing bout of the hokey-cokey at Henderson’s yard, spelled curtains for this column’s speculative Ryanair bet.

However, a length-and-a-quarter defeat of 153-rated Keeper Hill – even conceding him 6lb and if you favourably interpret Frodon’s persistent left-handed jumping for a return to that orientation – still falls at least 6lb, possibly more, below his best form. That doesn’t equate to him being a 6-1 shot in a race that’s living up to its archetypally unpredictable profile.

Back in third, beaten favourite Top Notch was either flat or exposed, which got me thinking about his partner and biggest fan Daryl Jacob’s comment that he hadn’t been happy with him on the first circuit before winning the Peterborough. Here, he was losing the battle from the home turn but still hung in there until approaching the last. But this isn’t Ryanair form.

Neither – yet – is that of Cepage, who got off the mark for the season with a brave, repelling-all-comers, front-running success from a mark of 154 at Cheltenham last Saturday. But his trainer Venetia Williams has hit the crossbar twice with Aso with her only previous darts at the Ryanair and his rider Charlie Deutsch could ride this younger horse with similar verve come March.

In a race that tends to suit such tactics and currently (for my money) boils down to A Plus Tard (provided he doesn’t again excel himself at 2m1f this Saturday), Min and Riders On the Storm, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to write off the Williams-trained pair to hit the frame at 33-1 for Aso (who prefers racing left-handed and hasn’t the last twice) and 40-1 for Cepage. [The Ryanair reserves the right to look nothing like the current market in six weeks’ time.]

Finally, it was sad to hear nominative determinism had again struck connections of Waiting Patiently, who chipped a bone in his ankle whilst preparing for the Clarence House and is probably out for the season. Also, it should be noted that the constant patient Douvan has not been entered in this event.

With two highly significant events yet remaining in this division – Saturday’s Dublin Chase and February’s Game Spirit – Defi Du Seuil is arguably the clubhouse leader. I say “arguably” because this depends on how highly you rate the Cyrname vs Altior match (in effect) at Ascot in November.

You’re on safer ground if asserting that Defi has the more convincing current profile. He’s done his winning over the Champion Chase trip this season, proving more than equal to falsely-run editions of the Shloer and Clarence House and to a fast-paced Tingle Creek. His jumping has become ever more efficient. He also boasts reassuringly triumphant Festival credentials, with both a JLT (now Marsh) and a Triumph on his CV. What’s not to like?

Well, if you’re asking: odds of 2/1. Illogical as it might sound, I don’t think he needed to do any more to beat Un De Sceaux by two-and-three-quarter lengths at Ascot than he did to beat him a neck at Sandown. His latest win is strawman form, in my opinion, whereas his Tingle Creek success was substantial. I’d rather judge him on that.

And on that, he’s got something to find not only on a below-peak Altior but even with 25/1 shot Min, who’s thought to be headed to the Ryanair this year after twice falling short in this event. Defi is also within hailing distance of the unexposed Willie Mullins-trained pair of Chacun Pour Soi and Cilaos Emery, about whom his son Patrick wondered whether there was much between them when speaking in this parish. This race is brewing up a fascinating mix.

You can also throw in the polarising (in punting terms) Douvan for good measure. If he’s sound enough to run anywhere at the Festival, it will be here. Who can forget the casual brilliance of his Queen Mum cameo two years ago, not having run since the previous year’s edition but travelling strongly until coming down four out?

That said, it was sobering to hear Patrick Mullins wonder whether Douvan would be better picking off Grade Twos and Threes in Ireland rather than being thrown in deep at the Festival again. “I think he’s the best we’ve ever had but he’s not sound enough,” he added, with evident frustration.

There could be some high-profile defectors to/from the Ryanair as a result of pivotal events at Leopardstown on Saturday. At this stage, it sounds as though Mullins might field a minimum of Chacun Pour Soi, Cilaos Emery and Min – possibly even last year’s Arkle winner Duc De Genievres, for four of a kind. He means business.

We know all bar Cilaos Emery – who’s pot-hunted lesser contests as yet over fences – will thrive in a fast-run race created by Ornua, whose role (as a by-product of the only way he can race: hard) is to see how stablemate A Plus Tard fares in such circumstances.

If all goes well, it could point to trainer Henry de Bromhead deploying a similar set-up in the Champion Chase rather than pursuing Plan A of fielding last year’s Close Brothers winner in the Ryanair.

In that scenario, Chacun Pour Soi could find himself – in a double whammy for this column – switched to the Ryanair. If Min excels himself (in circumstances he’ll love), could he end up back here again? I wouldn’t like to call this one but I know what I’ll be doing at 13:25 this Saturday.

The Game Spirit is brimming with possibilities in its own way. Once Nicky Henderson drew stumps on the 2m4f Silviniaco Conti Chase, it was inevitable that the longer-distance experiment was over and the Champion Chase would become the only target for Altior. He’d won the last two, after all. Why not go back to what you know and try to emulate Badsworth Boy with a third success?

On this occasion, his trainer immediately removed any potential ambiguity by announcing that the Queen Mum would be his stable star’s only entry. “The plan is for him to run in the Game Spirit at Newbury and he will be given one entry at Cheltenham, which will be in the Queen Mother Champion Chase,” he stated back then, in his Unibet blog.

To recap, it’s all gone a bit Pete Tong this season. Altior was out-speeded by Cyrname at Ascot – a race for which Henderson eventually conceded he was undercooked. Then, the horse clearly recoiled from a tough race – an encounter that the trainer of the winner also believes left a mark on his horse. So, the King George, said to be the fulcrum of Altior’s season, went out the window.

Yet Henderson hoped to run him in the following day’s Desert Orchid, only for him to develop an abscess on his withers. He was on antibiotics to clear up that problem but putting a saddle back on reportedly inflamed it once again, hence Altiorgate II in the run-up to his putative Kempton engagement (which is now too long in the past to justify comment here). So, it was onto the water treadmill with one ultimate target in mind.

Despite all this, Altior stubbornly remains a 5/2 chance in NRNB books. You can see why: he’s the dual winner of this race and (I believe the clock suggests) ran to a higher figure in finishing second to Cyrname, albeit over a longer trip, than did Defi Du Seuil at Sandown (let alone Ascot).

Yet at the same time, your eyes told you Altior was losing ground at his fences to Cyrname over 2m5f and your memory recalled how he’d struggled to quell lesser horses over two miles on his final two starts of last term, including in the oddly-conducted Champion Chase.

You can choose to account for Ascot by pointing to a horse making his seasonal debut, over an unsuitable trip (here, I disagree) and at a track where his past record (remember how he jumped left in the 2019 Clarence House?) was always going to put him under pressure against an Ascot specialist.

Yet even if you buy these reasons to be cheerful, the reaction of connections must be unnerving. Theories have abounded about this. Stepping up in trip was his jockey’s crackpot idea! Or his owners’! Or – chortle – the media’s! Just never Henderson’s.

He was speaking in the heat of the moment when saying the horse needed further last season. He was forced – forced, I tells ya! – to declare the King George as the target. He was strong-armed into declaring for Ascot and frogmarched to the course. #Nickyneverwanted to go up in trip.

First, who cares? If he got it right or wrong, or was convinced by others (which I doubt) to make a plan he wasn’t quite sure of – who cares? He must have held sufficient concerns of his own about two miles if he allowed himself to be persuaded. You don’t get to be as successful as Henderson without having your own mind and the propensity for stubbornness. If he tried it and decided it/he was wrong, good for him. The ability to change your mind can often be a strength.

Second, I can’t help but feel the #Nickyneverwanted interpretation implies that the trainer somehow orchestrated or foresaw this turn of events. This relies on the fanciful view that trainers – even great ones – somehow KNOW what’s going to happen over the course of a season or in a race or even on their gallops tomorrow. The best have a highly-skilled professional idea, obviously, but stuff happens.

It’s that mythologising background hum that has kept Altior’s price short – even if it has eased a shade to 100/30 or even 7/2 on ante-post terms in the past fortnight. But the reality seems to be that neither Henderson nor de Boinvile has been consistently happy with him since Ascot.

When the former said “we’ll throw everything at him to get him right”, I take him at his word but he doesn’t know for a fact that it’s going to work. Altior won 19 races on the bounce, the last 13 in graded company. That’s a record-breaking achievement. I bet it doesn’t half take it out of you.

It’s in that context that Altior could face Sceau Royal – a rival who twice gave him a fright last season, notably in the Champion Chase – and, from his perspective (and probably ours), the unknown quantity of Dynamite Dollars.

That horse hasn’t been sighted since winning the fourth of five novice chases at Doncaster just over a year ago but has been mentioned in dispatches by his Ditcheat yard.

You would also have to hope that Altior’s more fallible profile will encourage Alan King to stick to his guns with Sceau Royal, even though it will surely be a more competitive Game Spirit than he had initially bargained for – in which case this should be a proper indicator of where the reigning champion is at over two miles. (Don't mention the c-word. #Nickyneverwanted Altior festooned with sheepskin accoutrements [copyright Nick Luck])

Returning to Team Nicholls, I’m pretty sure Cyrname has the pace for top-class two-mile chasing but I’m equally convinced he’s a lesser horse when racing left-handed. While I have no doubt his best form is worthy of his 177 rating, I’ll be against him wherever he runs at Cheltenham, here or the Ryanair.

His trainer has indicated that stable-companion Politologue goes straight to the Champion Chase, in which he gave Altior the most to do last year. He went on to break a blood vessel at Aintree and was well below his best in the Tingle Creek. In those circumstances, this plan is understandable and he is capable when fresh, even if his peak form has not come that way.

There’s likely to be a mare in this line-up in the form of the highly likeable Lady Buttons. Although she mixes it between fences and hurdles, winning a Grade Two over the latter for the second year in succession last weekend at Doncaster, her best figures have been recorded when chasing. Nonetheless, even with her handy 7lb mares’ allowance, she still falls almost a stone below what’s required.

“The Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham looks particularly hot,” observed trainer Phil Kirby to the Racing Post. “The owners would like to run in the Champion Chase. We're probably better going to Aintree to run in the same race we were second in last year (Red Rum Handicap Chase) but I do think her last two runs have been as good as any. Lady Buttons will get all the entries.”

Another one bites the dust, and another one’s gone. There seems nothing to stop Paisley Park stomping charismatically all over the Stayers’ Hurdle stage. (Glittered skin-tight plunge-neckline bodysuit and handlebar moustache optional, Aidan Coleman will be relieved to hear. Or perhaps I presume too much? I’m not party to the jockey’s mufti preferences.)

First, Thistlecrack’s absence from the Stayers’ Hurdle entries two weeks ago revealed that his no-show among the previous week’s Gold Cup engagements was not the upshot of a strategic decision chez Tizzard, but rather a hangover from the injury that forced him out of the King George.

If he makes it back to the track this season, it won’t be at Cheltenham.

Then, de facto second favourite If The Cap Fits was one of the first beaten when taking on Paisley Park in last Saturday’s Cleeve. His rider Sean Bowen’s body language, hinting he was holding onto little, soon became all-out panic approaching the home turn, despite the field still being quite bunched-up at that stage. Aintree ahoy! It looks like this track is not for him.

When the chips are down, you can rely on Summerville Boy to make a chance-compromising error and that’s exactly what he did, twice, over the last two hurdles in the Cleeve.

That might persuade some to argue he could have finished closer to Paisley Park, but they would be ignoring both his perennially clumsy feet and the winner’s tendency to idle.

Exacerbated by a steadily run race, Paisley Park looked briefly in trouble and Coleman was required to ride him vigorously on the home turn, but he responded generously to draw upsides by the final flight and then lead on landing. Ears pricked, he then engaged cruise control, enabling Summerville Boy to be flattered by his proximity.

“He's not slow but it turned into a sprint,” Coleman said. “He came down the hill better than normal, but I had to get stuck in in the straight. I knew I would have to. I normally get to the front too soon and going to the last I thought this was perfect. He stopped more than he normally does, but he's brilliant.”

Jonathan Burke surely maximised Summerville Boy’s performance, nicking a few lengths at the start, dictating an easy lead and attempting to pick at the favourite’s perceived weakness with prudent fractions. Nonetheless, this was a highly encouraging first attempt at three miles even if it wasn’t a thorough test of stamina. He can run honourably back there in March.

In third and relatively well-positioned, Lisnagar Oscar managed a career best but L’Ami Serge again cut out badly after the last, fading from fourth to seventh and thus further undermining the worth of the Long Walk Hurdle – won by Summerville Boy’s stablemate The Worlds End at Ascot.

So, just as we were resigning ourselves to something akin to a coronation in the Stayers’ Hurdle, the unexpected figure of Willie Mullins tantalised us with the faint prospect of bowling in with crack mare Benie Des Dieux. What a tease. Racing TV’s Gary O’Brien even pointed out the exit after her hugely impressive Galmoy success last Thursday, but Mullins was remarkably slow to take it.

“She’s in both the Mares’ and the Stayers’ [Hurdles]. I guess, even though a lot of people would love to see her run against Paisley Park, it probably will be the Mares’, will it?” O’Brien asked. “Hard to know,” Mullins responded. “When she was coming up the straight today, I said to myself that had Stayers’ written all over it. I’ll have to chat to Rich [Ricci, her owner].”

“Would you like to see that yourself, if you had your way?” O’Brien interjected. Mullins went to answer, before the full terror of a competitive race with Paisley Park – rather than pretty much guaranteeing himself and Ricci a Festival winner – took shape in his mind and he felt his way backwards, in the mental and actual fog at Gowran Park, to that familiar door.

“I don’t know! I thought the Mares’ Hurdle… and the ground is going to be right for her in the Mares’ Hurdle. They always have softer ground the first couple of days of the Festival and it would be drying out by the third day,” he said.

“You’ll probably win the Mares’ with something else, anyway, though,” observed O’Brien. “I don’t know if we have something, but we’ll see,” mused Mullins, in response. “The obvious one to go is for the Mares’ but I’d certainly have to look at the other race. I’ll have a chat with Rich, and we’ll go through it, maybe with Paul [Townend] as well, and we’ll see what we all think.”

From 2009, Mullins had inured us Cheltenham fans to the unwelcome side-effect of a fourth Festival day by, on six successive occasions, raising Quevega’s sights no higher than the Mares’ Hurdle – a Grade Two back then – and yet taking on the boys at Grade One level at Punchestown.

Then suddenly – and despite, like Benie Des Dieux last year, falling at the last with the Mares’ Hurdle at her mercy at the previous Festival – Mullins successfully ran Annie Power in the 2016 Champion Hurdle. Admittedly, the race was comparatively low-hanging fruit that year, but he appears to acquired a taste for occasional adventure as he ran Laurina in the 2019 renewal.

When invited by O’Brien to compare Benie Des Dieux with Annie Power in terms of “raw talent”, Mullins asserted, almost in throwaway fashion: “I think she could be better.” May that conversation with Ricci and Townend be bountiful. For racing, you understand.

Mullins’ 2018 Stayers’ Hurdle victor, Penhill, merits a mention. He was the only rival able even to contemplate laying down a challenge to Benie Des Dieux at Gowran, but that thought evaporated as swiftly as the mare galloped away from him, unextended, after the second last. He’s now operating about 20lb below his optimum and is recovering – at best – only steadily.

Death Duty, who won Grade Ones as a novice over hurdles and fences, made his return from a 758-day absence in this event and was ridden sympathetically in rear before fading markedly in the straight. He’s also entered in the Gold Cup and Ryanair.

The Galmoy Hurdle was also notable for the absence of last year’s Ballymore fifth, Sams Profile, whom trainer Mouse Morris had suggested might make his belated return to action there. His only current entry is in this race, but the clock is ticking for a horse who looked likely to be well suited to three miles but is yet to try it.

Whereas an entry in this race was just a backstop for Minella Indo, who won his novice chase four days after it was made, it surely remains a live option for Champ, especially were his jumping to let him down in the Reynoldstown next month.

Martin Brassil has already made the change with last year’s Ballymore winner, City Island, who so far hasn’t taken to fences and – as predicted – is now officially bound for here.

“The season just crept up on us and we just got going a little late over fences,” Brassil admitted.

“He'll be stepping up in trip, but I don't see that as being a problem to him. He's looked as though he'll be better going up in distance."

The hol(e)y Samcro, 2018 Festival Bumper winner Relegate (yet to run since switched from Mullins’ yard to that of Colm Murphy) and the Alan King-trained 2017 Ballymore (then Neptune) third Messire Des Obeaux (unraced since Aintree that season) were other entries to raise an eyebrow of interest.

Ronald Pump, who suffered an overreach over fences behind Carefully Selected last Sunday but ran well in Leopardstown’s Pertemps Qualifier last month, could turn out to be overpriced for place money at 33/1 should connections roll the big dice.

I never had Pentland Hills down as a sentimentalist, but you have to wonder whether emotion got the better of him when idling to such a degree in Haydock’s The New One Unibet Hurdle that he handed victory to the tougher, more straightforward Ballyandy – stablemate of the four-times winner of this race, whom its title celebrated.

Ground that was officially heavy (soft on times) and over-racing in a small field would have done the narrow runner-up no favours when Nico de Boinville asked him to settle matters by moving clear of front-running Cornerstone Lad after the last. Yet he joined Nicky Henderson’s yard last season with a reputation for – at best – making a meal out of a finish.

There was little sign of this trait when he won the Triumph Hurdle by three lengths from Coeur Sublime last year, but it was present – admittedly against the substantial rivalry of Fakir D’Oudairies – at Aintree. He also backed out of the International on his seasonal debut last month far too quickly for many people’s tastes.

He again travelled well here, so improved fitness and ground are likely to cede him a few more pounds. He conceded 3lb to the doughty winner – who’s in the consistent form of his life this season and no forlorn place chance at 33-1 for the Champion – but received 3lb himself from the Fighting Fifth winner Cornerstone Lad, who emerged as the best horse at the weights. Put baldly: Pentland Hills’ odds continue to outmatch his achievements.

“I thought ‘job done’ so I don’t mind admitting it was particularly frustrating to see him get beaten right on the line,” Henderson reflected in his Unibet blog. “A few people have mentioned headgear, but I don’t know about that yet, we’re still just mulling it over and I can’t really work it all out.

“I don’t think we can blame the ground as he jumped and travelled beautifully before going to win the race, but his run just petered out. He’s come out of it absolutely fine and I don’t particularly want to run him again before Cheltenham, so we’ll let the dust settle and discuss it with the owners.”

Back in fourth, invited comparisons with Beech Road were short-lived for Darasso, who spent too much time in the air.

Chase-switcher Thomas Darby won a Grade Three handicap hurdle at Ascot from a mark of 151 but, despite a Champion Hurdle entry, next heads to the National Spirit en route to Aintree according to trainer Olly Murphy. Pentland Hills’ stable companion Fusil Raffles is set for next month’s Kingwell after nothing came to light to explain his Christmas Hurdle flop.

Ahead of his putative clash with Honeysuckle in Saturday’s Irish Champion Hurdle, it’s worth recalling that Patrick Mullins didn’t believe a hood would resolve Klassical Dream’s issues – even though it’s an aid used on him at home. “It’s probably a bit in his head,” he said. “Immaturity. I’d hope he’d grow out of it.” Quite a bit to expect of him in 34 days.

After the déjà vu disappointment for Rich Ricci of seeing another mare fall when clear at the last in the 2019 Mares’ Hurdle, Willie Mullins will be keen to provide him with a Cheltenham Festival success – something that was lacking last season. He can’t guarantee that against Paisley Park in the Stayers’ Hurdle, but he pretty much can with Benie Des Dieux here, aberrations allowing.

Mullins had floated the idea of the mare heading straight to Cheltenham but her rude health back home at Closutton happily compelled him to run her in the Galmoy, with an emphatic result. Ruby Walsh, who unfortunately hit the turf with her last March (her only defeat for this yard), observed that the extra outing would only be of benefit to a mare who was too “fizzy” at the 2019 Festival.

Of course, Irish Champion Hurdle contender Honeysuckle could prove Benie’s greatest obstacle, but a bold showing this Saturday could yet see that rival rerouted for a more ambitious Cheltenham target – and she’s got to prove that a favourable interpretation of her Hatton’s Grace defeat of Bacardys is substantial. It’s the only line of form that puts her on Benie’s doorstep.

Should Ricci seek to Go Big, one of the factors at play in Mullins’ mind would be whether he can win this race anyway. Festival winners are pivotal to this operation and, long-suited though he always is, Mullins palpably does not take them for granted. Even without Honeysuckle’s presence, winning this Benie-less is not the formality you might expect.

The opposition could be headed by last year’s fortunate winner Roksana – whose own target might be subject to Benie’s – supplemented by recent Ascot winner Magic Of Light (albeit the National is likely her prime target) and last season’s Christmas Hurdle winner Verdana Blue (if she fails to qualify for her Saudi Flat ambitions). They all boast better peak form than the Mullins-trained Stormy Ireland, who triumphed again at Naas last Saturday.

Dominating here takes a greater effort than her preferred run-style usually takes out of Stormy Ireland, who finished (a fortunate) second in this race last year but is perhaps slightly improved this season. Yet other non-Mullins mares such as Lady Buttons (Champion Chaser preferred), Papagana (found to be in season behind Magic Of Light at Ascot) and Indefatigable are snapping at her heels in ability terms.

That said, Mullins does, of course, have reinforcements: Elfile, last year’s third Good Thyne Tara (who fell over fences last time we saw her) and even conceivably last year’s last-gasp Dawn Run winner, Eglantine Du Seuil. And were Laurina to be redirected here rather than persisting with fences, all this musing becomes academic and Mullins would again hold a bird in the hand.

This section must conclude with a salute to Apple’s Jade, 11 times a Grade One winner but pulled up behind Benie at Gowran after making uncharacteristic errors, in particular at the fifth.

Despite never being in her prime at Cheltenham, she won the 2017 Mares’ Hurdle and possessed an indomitable spirit. I suspect the likelihood is she will now be retired with her ephemeral last hurrah at Leopardstown over Christmas relatively fresh in our collective memory. A fabulous mare.

At the time of writing, entries for the four Grade One novices – the Sky Bet Supreme, Ballymore, Albert Bartlett and JCB Triumph Hurdle – had not yet been published.

Never fear: I have a plan as cunning as a fox who’s just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford University.

Tune in for the Road To Cheltenham show on Racing TV on Thursday at 9pm for my mad ideas. No pretence required.

Advised on 20/11/19: Altior at 14/1 with William Hill for the Ryanair [non-runner]

Advised on 17/12/19: Chacun Pour Soi at 4/1 with various firms for the Champion Chase

Advised on 17/12/19: Mister Fisher at 16/1 e/w with Bet365, William Hill or BetFred for the Marsh

Advised on 28/11/19: Thyme Hill at 14/1 with various firms for the Albert Bartlett

Advised on 12/12/19: Carefully Selected at 20/1 with Skybet or BetVictor for the NH Chase