Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham: Epatante on course to reach the top?

Happy new year, folks – the appellation, American politicos will advise you, that’s essential when trying to appear relatable, empathetic and trustworthy. So, folks, I have been working my socks off this Christmas to unleash a pent-up tidal wave of analysis about this sport that will, along with the Tokyo Olympics and Euro 2020, distract you from social and environmental Armageddon. Enjoy.

“I haven’t had a chance to talk to Barry [Geraghty],” Nicky Henderson confessed, immediately after Epatante won the Christmas Hurdle. “All I said was: ‘What next?’ He just said: ‘Champion Hurdle’ and went to weigh in.”

It really was as simple as that. Having been initially unconsidered by her trainer for the Festival’s premier hurdle event, the mare was first catapulted into Kempton’s Grade One at the behest of owner JP McManus and then, after her ready victory, to near-favouritism at Cheltenham.

Three days later, following Klassical Dream’s total flop in the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown, she was the outright market leader and three points shorter than any rival.

Beforehand, Henderson admitted he had envisaged recent Elite Hurdle winner Fusil Raffles as the best of his three shots at the Christmas Hurdle but the four-year-old – winner of the Adonis over the course and distance last season – weakened disturbingly quickly as the race started to develop entering the home turn and was pulled up in the straight.

He had been keen but not that keen, so it looked like there was a problem – albeit the veterinary officer found no fault at the time.

Henderson’s third contender was another mare, Verdana Blue, who won this race in entertaining fashion the previous year and beat dual Champion Hurdle hero, and stablemate, Buveur D’Air, in the process. However, the ground was much softer this time around and, although she got into contention at the top of the straight, she could only muster the one pace for a keeping-on fourth.

Meanwhile, Epatante breezed through the race. A shade keen in the early stages, she jumped as though she had been taking notes from Buveur D’Air at their Seven Barrows base – as fast and slick as you could hope for in testing conditions. She moved readily into contention as the race began in earnest, challenged two out and powered away on landing for a five-length success.

The pace had been solid – 2.7 seconds quicker than the opening novices’ hurdle until the third last and then very little between the two races in the closing fractions.

Unlike her illustrious but injured stable companion Buveur D’Air – whom Henderson has since confirmed is “mending very well but won’t be back this season” – Epatante isn’t a stuffy horse, so her trainer sees no need to work himself up to racing her again prior to Cheltenham.

“Does she need any more [experience]?” Henderson asked, rhetorically, on the day. “I could get her there on the back of what she’s done today, and a racecourse gallop, and it wouldn’t worry me.”

When the dust had settled, McManus reportedly concurred that the mare needn’t race again until the Champion Hurdle, so she is therefore likely to remain favourite until the day itself.

The dominant consideration therefore becomes whether she will be effective at Cheltenham. Her vastly improved form this season has played out on tracks, Newbury and Kempton, with one distinct similarity: they are flat as the proverbial.

Cheltenham’s Old Course, host to the Champion Hurdle, is undulating and tight.

Epatante’s sole Festival experience came when the beaten 15/8 favourite for the Grade Two Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle last season, staged over 2m1f of the more galloping, stamina-testing New Course, and she was ultimately beaten almost ten lengths by Eglantine Du Seuil.

“We thought she had a terrific chance at Cheltenham last season, and she was disappointing,” Henderson acknowledged. “But I don’t think you can judge that one run and say she doesn’t go uphill; she doesn’t go downhill. I’ve got plenty of hills at Seven Barrows, I can tell you. So, I’ll teach her to go up and down a hill, don’t you worry!”

It is certainly too early to conclude Epatante doesn’t handle Cheltenham but it is an unknown, perhaps even a doubt, about the best-priced 3-1 favourite for the Champion Hurdle. I revisited the Dawn Run as a result: mildly keen in a first-time hood, as she was in the Christmas Hurdle, and it was actually her jumping that let her down.

She made mistakes at the fourth and fifth, landing flat-footed at the latter, and a slight error when squeezed out and shuffled back approaching the penultimate flight.

Geraghty pretty much gave up approaching the last in ninth place – the winner was in tenth at the time – and coasted on the run-in, but his mount did stay on up the hill, suggesting that aspect of Cheltenham is probably not an issue. She didn’t run again that season, so there was likely to have been an issue underlying her jockey’s decision-making.

It’s obviously the 7lb mares’ allowance that makes her the rightful Champion Hurdle favourite, rather than some unassailable form standard – although it should be emphasised that her known ability remains on an upward trajectory. As things stand, the level of form required to boss the 2020 Champion Hurdle has not yet reached that of, say, Buveur D’Air in 2017 or even the ill-fated Espoir D’Allen in March when winning by 15 lengths (admittedly in an imploded race that might have been unsafe in form-replication terms).

Whether you think Epatante, who was merely pushed out to near the line, should be shorter depends on how well you deem Silver Streak and Ballyandy ran when second and third behind her at Kempton.

It also rests on what you deem Sharjah achieved in his cruise-control defeat of Petit Mouchoir last Sunday – or even, perhaps, in his comfortable defeat of Faugheen last season.

More exposed than Epatante, Sharjah is at his best in a well-run race on a soundish surface and he got that at Leopardstown, with the runner-up disputing an honest pace from the outset with the keen-going favourite Klassical Dream until the latter’s chance-ending error at the fourth.

Rachael Blackmore kept the pedal to the metal on Petit Mouchoir – he knows no other way of going – but could never shake off the smooth-travelling winner. They jumped the last together, but Sharjah only needed to be shaken up on landing to lead and pulled further clear for each light tap he received from rider Patrick Mullins on the run-in

Having reportedly worked much better at home in a tongue-tie since his disheartening seasonal debut at Punchestown (admittedly on ground that was likely too soft), Sharjah also sported that aid in a race for the first time since the end of his novice season in 2017. He may also have benefitted from at least having a prior outing, given needing that first start has become a marked theme with Willie Mullins’ yard this season.

Working out what the ground is from the official times is often something of a guessing game at Leopardstown (unless you have been around that day’s course with a trundle-wheel yourself) but I think it’s safe to say that, although Sunday’s ground was the least soft of the Christmas Festival’s four days on the hurdles course, there was still more cut in it than was being given credit for.

The ground for the Champion Hurdle often guaranteed to be at least good-to-soft these days and the opening day can often be the most testing of Cheltenham’s four (if rainclouds do not intervene), so that could be a drawback for Sharjah.

Yet Mullins jnr was arguing on Sunday that his mount was handling proper soft ground in last year’s renewal until brought down by the fall of Buveur D’Air. Mind you, that was only at the third hurdle and, at the same time at Leopardstown, his father was testifying that “that sort of ground makes a big difference to him”. I think we can safely file this information under contradictory.

Sharjah is likely to be entered in the Irish Champion Hurdle in February but could go straight to Cheltenham, according to his trainer, as he did last year. His price currently ranges from 7-1 to 12-1 and he’s overpriced at the upper end in an as-yet thin division. If you do fancy him, given he’s likely to go straight there, you’d want to back him at 12s before NRNB broadly kicks in and clips valuable points off the price.

BetFred are now NRNB for the Festival’s four premier Grade Ones (yup, wisely, not the Ryanair) and rate him a 10-1 shot.

He’s still a couple of points longer than his more feted stablemate, Klassical Dream, in most books. That horse was agitated in Leopardstown’s paddock before the Matheson and, as for his Punchestown seasonal debut, over-excitable at the start. Mullins was afterwards understandably considering applying a hood for his next start.

Whether that alone will help his jumping – he ballooned both the first and fourth, in the latter case losing his undercarriage – is questionable. Rider Paul Townend gave Klassical Dream time to recover from his pivotal error, briefly working onto the heels of Petit Mouchoir at the second last, but they were soon a spent force.

The contortions caused by that blunder made me worry whether he might have done himself some physical damage. I hope not. Whatever, he has serious a technique problem and I did fleetingly wonder whether it was too late in the season for Mullins to contemplate switching to fences.

Stablemate Aramon, who finished last of the Matheson quintet, also threw in more than one airy jump but his form isn’t good enough for ambitions beyond handicap company. His yard will clearly be expecting his fitness to improve greatly for having a run under his belt, however.

Petit Mouchoir again ran as good a race as trainer Henry de Bromhead is able to muster from him these days, wearing the cheekpieces that have helped revive him and for a yard performing at the top of its game over Christmas.

That’s form about 6lb below his 2017 peak – when winning two Leopardstown Grade Ones (this one and the Irish Champion) en route to finishing third behind Buveur D’Air in the Champion Hurdle – but means he’s far from a pushover. I’d suggest he’s operating at a similar level (at least) to Silver Streak, although official ratings say otherwise. The Irish handicapper has raised him 1lb to 155, 9lb below his career apex.

Silver Streak, meanwhile, did well to finish a clear second to Epatante after making a significant blunder three out. Yet BHA handicapper David Dickinson has him running 4lb above any previous best, presumably incorporating third-placed Ballyandy running a similar race to his International second on a much more testing track, and has raised the runner-up to 158. If you agree with Dickinson, Epatante should be shorter than 3-1. I don’t.

Back in third in the Matheson, Coeur Sublime was disappointing. At first it appeared as though Davy Russell was waiting to pounce but, from the second last, it became clear he wasn’t able. It was therefore unsurprising to hear trainer Gordon Elliott admit he was relieved that his jockey pointed out a problem afterwards.

“I was disappointed," Elliott told the Racing Post. "At first, I was disappointed with the ride Davy gave him, I didn't think he put him into the race, but he came in and said the horse made a bit of a noise. Davy's riding the horse, knows him and you have to go with what he says. I was glad he said that. He's never made a noise at home, so we'll see how he is.”

Coeur Sublime is now out to 25-1 and, no doubt as a result, his novice stable companion Envoi Allen has been chopped again for the Champion Hurdle, to as short as 5-1 NRNB with BetFred.

He’s set to step up to 2m4f in a Grade One novices’ hurdle at Naas this Sunday and, as far as I’m aware, Elliott has never publicly indicated that the tougher Festival target is on his mind.

But you can understand punters – and bookmakers – looking to draft in players for this contest. There aren’t many remaining on the pitch. Yes, Silver Streak – last year’s distant Champion Hurdle third – appears just as capable of picking off comparable prize money this time around and although Ballyandy – ridden with adroitly positive tactics at sharp Kempton – isn’t quick enough to win, he could run meritoriously in an inferior year.

But the Matheson undermined Klassical Dream and Coeur Sublime, while the Christmas Hurdle put paid to Fusil Raffles and Elixir De Nutz, the latter allowed to pull his way to the front after the second hurdle and thus foil any intentions to ride him more patiently. He lasted longer than Fusil but folded cheaply on the home turn and latterly again held his tail awkwardly high.

Ch’Tibello was below his best and that’s not good enough anyway. Reverting to hurdles after making too many mistakes over fences, Getaway Trump was pulled up with a breathing problem.

Henderson also revealed that Verdana Blue will duck the Champion Hurdle and the extended risk of too-soft ground in favour of a lucrative busman’s holiday to Saudi Arabia in February for the start of an extended Flat campaign for her new owner, Michael Tabor.

Who else is there? Last year’s Triumph Hurdle hero Pentland Hills remains a player, of course, and it’s significant that Henderson continues to mention positively, in passing, his International Hurdle comeback - thereby suggesting fitness after suddenly running hard from two out, rather than anything more concerning, was the reason he weakened late. I’m more positive than negative about him at this stage, but 9-1 doesn’t sufficiently express that position.

Some will be hankering after Honeysuckle running here and that’s understandable, as the Irish handicapper has her rated just 1lb shy of Epatante.

Connections have suggested she’ll be entered here as well as in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, for which she is vying for favouritism with Benie Des Dieux, so there is likely to be some ambiguity right up until March.

De Bromhead has a decent marker in Petit Mouchoir, so it will be interesting to see where he runs Honeysuckle next. She is yet to race left-handed under Rules.

Saldier, who beat Petit Mouchoir plus his stablemate Klassical Dream and Sharjah at Punchestown in November, was a notable absentee over Christmas following a setback. If that form can be believed – the Mullins trio were making their seasonal debut, but you could logically fit it into the winner’s trajectory of improvement – then 6-1 second favourite is justified. His career has been dogged by errors, though.

I doubt International winner Call Me Lord is quick enough and Tom George didn’t seem inclined to drop Wednesday’s Relkeel winner, the 2018 Supreme hero Summerville Boy, back to two miles. Funnily enough, of the two distances available over hurdles at Cheltenham (and long may that continue), that’s the way I’d go with him. Or else wait for Aintree.

I suppose it’s possible that dual runner-up Melon could get a fallback entry but Henderson hasn’t repeated his throwaway line about Altior. Interestingly, entries for the Champion Hurdle close three days after his next intended start, Kempton’s Silviniaco Conti Chase.

Trainer Olly Murphy has stated that last year’s Supreme second, Thomas Darby, who finished lame, is likely to revert to hurdles because “he has never really looked confident jumping a fence”.

“We’ve had his wind checked and bones scanned, and nothing has come to light,” he said. “Plans are a bit up in the air at the moment, he is back cantering away, but he will not be seen until mid to late January.”

That comeback could be in Haydock’s Grade Two Champion Hurdle Trial (The New One Unibet Hurdle) on January 18 but Murphy is also toying with stepping him up to two-and-a-half miles – a trip he did look to need at the back end of last season.

In this context, it’s therefore not surprising that Not So Sleepy – a mercurial but highly talented handicapper on the Flat – made a minor splash in the Champion Hurdle market after careering away with an Ascot handicap hurdle just before Christmas. He won by nine lengths from a mark of 127, in a standout time for the two-day meeting, and is now rated 144.

He again nicked a few lengths at the start before racing with considerable enthusiasm – without giving himself time to jump fluently – and drew right away from the penultimate flight for an impressive, eased-down success. Champion Hurdle odds of 66-1 are now 40-1 at best and trainer Hughie Morrison is inclined to bypass lesser assignments with such a seasoned eight-year-old.

“We won this race 18 years ago with Marble Arch, who disappointed at Newbury and then came second in the Champion Hurdle. So, you can only but dream,” Morrison said. “That's the ultimate objective. He didn't carry a lot of weight, but he won with a stone in hand. Why not look forward? …There's no point messing around with novices and handicap hurdles.”

Not So Sleepy again ran consistently on the Flat in 2019, proving he stays at least 14 furlongs and closed his campaign with a rating of 94, slightly below his level of the previous season and 13lb below his three-year-old peak.

He’s less experienced as a hurdler than Marble Arch was and for whom the 2002 Champion Hurdle – in which he was a three-lengths runner-up to Hors La Loi – was his 13th start over obstacles. That horse only raced on the Flat latterly in his career, so they are different types.

They also race very differently: Marble Arch was ridden patiently and delivered late whereas, over jumps, his rivals will never race quickly enough to afford Not So Sleepy any option but to lead. If anything, Not So Sleepy’s runaway style reminds you of Make A Stand, the 1997 winner of the Champion Hurdle.

His addition to this scene is therefore doubly welcome in that he provides a totally different form angle and will also put the pace to the race – good news for the other two Christmas winners, the keen Epatante and pace-loving Sharjah. Provided he jumps cleanly, he’s far too good a horse for any rival to ignore so, in a way, he will be the making of this year’s Champion Hurdle.

Wisely circumspect or overly cautious? We will probably never know which is the more accurate interpretation of trainer Emma Lavelle’s decision to withdraw the reigning Stayers’ Hurdle champion and heavy odds-on favourite, Paisley Park, from Ascot’s Long Walk (Marsh, if you must show these decision-makers more regard than they do the sport) Hurdle just before Christmas.

The impact from a Festival perspective is that he’ll likely line up in March with two fewer prep runs under his belt than when winning by just under three lengths last term. Of course, then, he was proving himself worthy of owner Andrew Gemmell’s Cheltenham ambitions whereas now the pressure is on connections to deliver him in comparable shape.

Lavelle is happy that she made the right decision. “We're probably relieved we didn't go, racing on soft ground definitely takes its toll, but now he's getting fresher and I'm delighted with him,” she told the Racing Post last week, when confirming that the Cleeve remains the horse’s next target rather than try to take in the Relkeel Hurdle on New Year’s Day.

For the sake of correctness, it was on account of “a couple of false patches [of ground] going down the hill” that Lavelle made the scratching – the same issue that had caused Ascot to inspect and move railings in an effort to get the meeting on.

However, Gemmell had earlier expressed some concern that the conditions would leave Paisley Park vulnerable to an upset. “It is the unknown,” he said then. “He has never run in conditions as desperate as those he is going to find at Ascot. He once ran poorly on really soft ground at Cheltenham, but he was still filling out at the time, following a serious illness. The ground this time is going to be worse.”

These were the concerns that combined to prompt the withdrawal and now the Cleeve, staged over the Stayers’ Hurdle course and distance on January 25, becomes pivotal. Gemmell – whom we learned last season is a meticulous campaign-planner – has asked himself what would happen were the weather to force an abandonment.

“If that was affected by bad weather, we would have nothing until the Stayers',” he has acknowledged. Of course, the British Horseracing Authority would be highly likely to reschedule the race elsewhere in such circumstances – weather permitting – but, at best, it would still be an unhelpful week closer to the prime target and conducted on necessarily testing ground. Better not to think about it!

I mention all this in consideration of whether – as many people argue, my fellow Road-warrior Ruby Walsh included – Paisley Park should be trading at shorter than his current odds of 6-4.

Their case is that the titleholder is so much the best horse in the race and there are very few credible runners, let alone opponents, against him.

The flaw in that argument – and at such cramped odds, I’m duty bound to consider these things – is that his great superiority is based on last season’s form rather than contemporaneous evidence. Although his Newbury defeat of Thistlecrack was a highly satisfactory opening bid for the season, it was still form at least 7lb below his best.

If The Cap Fits, via his Ascot success in November, has strictly achieved more this term than Paisley Park. Also, the trouble with a one-sided hurdling division is that its Festival manifestation can attract waifs and strays with abortive or faltering chasing options to roll the dice. And if those 7lbs aren’t found, for whatever reason, it will be a different ballgame come 12 March.

To be crystal, I’m not arguing against Paisley Park being clear favourite but the first week of January is awfully early to hear the never-appropriate c-word bandied about.

In the favourite’s absence, The World’s End beat three rivals to win the Grade One Long Walk (sigh, Marsh) Hurdle in a manner made memorable by a characteristic intervention from L’Ami Serge. God, I’ve missed him in the 580 days he’s been away. Whether Nico de Boinville agrees might be open to some doubt!

The trouble is, he travels too well… Having been keen early on and typically jumping left, held up in last place, L’Ami Serge was about five or six lengths down on front-running The Worlds End after the third last.

Somehow – de Boinville surely can’t have intended this and only having three intrinsically inferior rivals to track wouldn’t have helped his ministrations – he was upsides the leader two out. The horror! The horror! Of course, The Worlds End bungled it out to his left slightly while L’Ami Serge serenely landed in front. I think we know whose heart was in darkness then.

Those new to Le Serge would have been wondering at the looks of alarm around them, as he jumped the last more than a length up and pretty much on the bridle. They soon found out, as he started to idle under driving and permitted The Worlds End to overtake near the line.

To be fair to L’Ami Serge, he had been off games for a lengthy period and clearly finished tired but there’s a reason why usual rider Daryl Jacob smuggles him into a race at the last minute. Even then, the final score goes the wrong way more often than it should for a horse of his ability. You’ve gotta love him, though – and as an ardent Vodkatini fan, I mean that sincerely.

The Worlds End is having a cracking season and winning this weakened Grade One will surely remain the high point of his CV. Contrary to early career pronouncements, he is perfectly capable of delivering his best form on a testing surface – or has come to be – but the one thing he clearly enjoys best is making his own running. For that reason, as well as his form not being good enough, he’s rightfully a 20-1 shot for the Stayers’ Hurdle. Le Serge is the same price. Chortle.

I had assumed that Ireland’s feature staying hurdle of the Christmas period would have equally little impact on this Cheltenham event – even though it did make for one hell of a good story when Apple’s Jade arose from her slough of despond to win an eleventh Grade One.

But Gigginstown’s Eddie O’Leary has since suggested to the Racing Post that “you’d be tempted by the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham”. Natch, this contradicts what his brother Michael was declaring immediately after her victory in Leopardstown’s Frank Ward Memorial Hurdle last Saturday.

“I can't imagine she'd go to Cheltenham,” he said. “If she had one more bad run, she was getting retired. But if she runs like that and jumps like that, we'll keep going. She'll tell us herself – she's like all ladies when they decide they've had enough, they've had enough.”

Tolerant faceChecks Gigginstown exit dateResumes tolerant face What seems undisputed is that Apple’s Jade would have been retired had she not pulled it out of the bag here. Trainer Gordon Elliott had played his part: putting on cheekpieces for the first time and removing her cross noseband. Keith Donoghue, a key member of his team and perhaps best known as Tiger Roll’s cross-country sidekick, also helped to freshen her up by taking her out hunting.

Jockey Jack Kennedy testified to Elliott that he spotted the difference immediately, even as the pair cantered to post. “He said just going to the start she felt different than she's felt all year,” her trainer reported. Visually, it was like old times, too, with Apple’s Jade quickly stringing out her field to almost single file. But, of course, she was also adjusting right.

“I wasn't liking the way she was jumping,” Elliott confessed afterwards. “She was jumping well but going a little bit right.” For “a little”, read "frequently, sometimes considerably”.

This isn’t a trait she’s going to forget now, at the age of seven. In her youth she could jump straight; she doesn’t now. We all know how that feels. (If you don’t as yet, you’ll find out.)

There was a moment, starting when she ran down the fourth last markedly to her right and it looked as though the patiently ridden horses were creeping closer, that she looked vulnerable. You were filled with the doubts engendered by her form this season and the back end of last. But as she galloped away from two out and Unowhatimeanharry blundered, you knew she had it. The final winning margin was 17 lengths

“It was great to see Apple's Jade back to her best,” Eddie O’Leary asserted. Steady on: marvellous sight thought this was, it wasn’t that. Elliott’s post-race comments in this regard were more pertinent. “I'd still say her work wasn't as good as what it was, but hopefully she'll get as big a kick out of that as we did and she might be back,” he said.

Beforehand, it was hard to come up with a solid option in this race. Veteran Unowhatimeanharry had been operating not far off a stone below his peak for a while now and had run abjectly at Newbury last time. Penhill had shown very little when last of six behind Honeysuckle on his first start for 584 days at the start of December. Both ran a bit better but still languish a long way off what Paisley Park would require.

Perhaps Bacardys, who had at least offered up two solid efforts to date this season, was the answer? (If “solid” and “Bacardys” in the same sentence isn’t an oxymoron.) But this turned out to be distinctly an off-day for him and you couldn’t even blame his jumping. Weakening after three out, he plugged on for a distant fourth and Paul Townend later reported that he’d “never travelled”.

So, Apple’s Jade didn’t need to return to her best to win, even by that margin, but she will need to get somewhere near it if Paisley Park returns to his Cleeve and Stayers’ Hurdle level of form. Yet then you have the mare’s Cheltenham problem: in four starts there, including her 2017 Mares’ Hurdle success, she has never scaled the heights of form routinely achieved at other venues. There have been excuses – in season, too long a break beforehand – but dem’s da facts.

Eddie O’Leary was trying to find a positive way of looking at this. “The last few seasons she's been brilliant up until the spring, whereas this season it was the complete opposite of what she's been doing recently – maybe she's changing her mind,” he said. Whatever you make of this logic – or wishful thinking? – I still wouldn’t fancy 12 hurdles and three miles of her adjusting right.

Michael O’Leary seemed to suggest we’d next see Apple’s Jade returned to two miles for the Irish Champion Hurdle, back at Leopardstown next month, so perhaps we will learn then whether this was one swallow or a summer.

But the final words on this fabulous mare are best left to Elliott. “She doesn't owe us anything and whatever she does now is a bonus,” he said. “She's been competing at the top end since she was three years of age and it's hard to keep doing it. She's the horse of a lifetime.”

Following New Year’s Day at Cheltenham, there was at least one new name potentially to conjure with in this division – and perhaps more than just one.

Reverting to hurdles after being one of the few horses in history ever to fall at Sandown’s water jump, Summerville Boy won the Grade Two Relkeel Hurdle after controlling a slow-quick-slow-slow pace from the front.

It looks as though a brief spell chasing has garnered the winner greater respect for his obstacles, albeit he still threw in a klutzy error at the seventh, and he was also more tractable than had been the case in his younger days.

But more than anything, it appeared as though Jonathan Burke gave him the perfect ride, utilising the residual speed that won him the 2018 Supreme to keep him one stride ahead of his rivals. So, 25-1 for stepping up in trip for the Stayers’ Hurdle would leave me with serious stamina questions – even if trainer Tom George seems to feel the exact opposite.

“Summerville Boy had always schooled well over fences and when things went wrong last time, we thought we'd go back over hurdles,” he said. “This seemed the obvious race as we always thought he'd want a bit further. He used to be wound-up as a young horse but is relaxed now and we put the earplugs back in, which probably helped as well.

“He always looked like he'd be a proper stayer – even in the Supreme he outstayed them, and he kept galloping away. Schooling over fences and running in chases has probably helped his jumping over hurdles. I don't know about plans, but we wouldn't be going shorter.”

The pattern of the race would not have suited runner-up Roksana, last year’s fortunate winner of the Mares’ Hurdle. However, given she was carrying a 6lb penalty for her Festival success, this was better than she had so far mustered this season – although she did hold her tail awkwardly high throughout.

Judging by last season’s exploits, when she went on to excel herself over three miles at Aintree, the Stayers’ Hurdle might prove the better Cheltenham target this year given its current lack of depth and the fact she’d be armed with a 7lb mares’ allowance.

It was a creditable first run of the season back in third from last year’s Coral Cup victor William Henry, returning from at least his second bout of wind surgery and with the tempo also surely not to his liking. But he isn’t good enough for the Stayers’ Hurdle.

On his first run for the Henderson yard over hurdles, stablemate Janika shaped as though three miles might well be to his liking – despite starting the season by winning the 2m1.5f Haldon Gold Cup. He largely jumped these smaller obstacles well, bar an airy leap three out, before getting deeply outpaced. It will be interesting to see whether he gets entered in something like the Cleeve.

An exciting novice last season, whose unbeaten run came to an end only when he encountered Champ in Aintree’s Grade One Sefton Hurdle, Emitom was making his belated return in the Relkeel – and encountering Cheltenham for the first time.

But the blunder he made at the opening hurdle came to be the dominant theme of his round and he was ultimately beaten 19 lengths without making any impact.

I should mention a clutch of horses who feature relatively prominently in some lists for the Stayers’ Hurdle but either didn’t appear as expected over Christmas or else are currently said to be bound for other targets.

The mare Benie Des Dieux is the shortest-priced of these – she’s even 5-1 NRNB with BetFred – but was deemed “not straight enough to run” against Apple’s Jade at Leopardstown by trainer Willie Mullins and may now go straight to Cheltenham, or else possibly take in the Galmoy. She’s discussed more fully in the Mares’ Hurdle section, where she will surely run.

2018 runner-up Supasundae was supposed to be making his comeback in the Matheson Hurdle but this stuffy horse wasn’t declared. Wide-margin 2016 winner Thistlecrack missed the King George with a bruised foot and, given his only run to date this season has been over hurdles when keeping Paisley Park honest at Newbury, the likelihood of this being his Festival target must have increased.

At Leopardstown last Friday, the 2019 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle winner City Island made his chase debut in a beginners’ event won by Melon. Keen early on (as he had been more markedly at Cheltenham), he hit the second and pecked on landing, after which his jumping steadily deteriorated until a chance-ending blunder when stretched to hold his position at the second last. Mark Walsh duly pulled him up. If all is well, you sense a Plan B coming on.

I wonder whether Henderson might consider the same for On The Blind Side, even though he jumped with more assurance than can be the case behind Riders Onthe Storm in a graduation chase at Ascot prior to Christmas.

Whisper it, but I also wonder whether Presenting Percy might receive this as an alternative engagement. This race was mentioned in passing last season more than once by his owner Philip Reynolds and jockey Davy Russell despite never having been entered, although admittedly his one prep run then was over hurdles.

Prior to his run over hurdles at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, I had contemplated the chances of 2018 Gold Cup runner-up Might Bite ending up in the Stayers’ Hurdle. Given how quickly he stopped on the home turn, I’m now contemplating the chances of him running again at all – unless it’s in Point-to-Points. Henderson plans to have him scoped so we should soon learn more.

Such was the lack of self-preservation in Champ’s fall at the penultimate fence in the Dipper that same day that I thought I might encounter some suggestions of a Buveur D’Air-esque mid-season reversion to hurdles.

But that doesn’t appear to have crossed connections’ minds, so I will save discussion of him to the novice-themed next edition of the Road To Cheltenham.

A couple of mares whom you might have discounted as participants for this Grade One event may have come back into play as a result of events over Christmas – via good news for one, but bad news for the other.

The good-news story is – obviously – Apple’s Jade, whose career was resurrected in the Frank Ward Memorial Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. Even though the only race mentioned, by Eddie O’Leary, was the Stayers’ Hurdle whereas the whole idea of Cheltenham was rubbished by his brother, it remains a distinct possibility that she could end up here.

Paisley Park looms large over her alternative target and she did win this race in 2017, albeit still not via the tenor of form by which she established her reputation as one of the stars of the jumping scene. She ranges from 4-1 to 7-1 for this target.

The mare who might end up here due to her Yuletude misfiring is Laurina, who – as her jockey Paul Townend reported post-race – was leaden-footed from the outset when lining up in what had appeared to be a terrifying edition of Leopardstown’s Racing Post Novice Chase.

The veterinary officer later confirmed Townend’s other observation, that his mount had incurred exercise induced pulmonary haemorrhage.

Although Townend lined Laurina up four abreast with Notebook, Fakir D’Oudairies and Djingle as the flag fell, she lacked their toe – or even enthusiasm? – to get to the first fence, got in close and made her first mistake. Niggled along after that, she jumped the next deliberately and dropped to last place; she then landed in a flat-footed heap at the fourth, hit the seventh and barely scrambled over two out. After that, Townend pulled up the 11-10 favourite.

Health issues notwithstanding, this was the second time in three starts that she hasn’t looked quick enough for top-class company at two miles so, whatever happens next, expect her to step back up in trip.

She has already won over fences so there is no novice-chasing status to preserve by switching to hurdles, but trainer Willie Mullins had already earmarked the Festival’s new Grade Two mares’ chase – set to be introduced next year – as her long-term target.

So, it’s not impossible that her role will be to add depth to this squad over a trip that suits her better than did the Champion Hurdle. The March Novices’ Chase (formerly the JLT) is the other option. You can get 10-1 for this race and 14-1 the other. Whatever, she needs first to recover

Her stablemate Benie Des Dieux, who would have followed up her 2018 victory in this event last year had she not taken a tumble at the last, vies for favouritism with Honeysuckle, who opted out of Christmas as owner Kenny Alexander’s racing manager Peter Molony had suggested she would.

You can’t say the latter’s defeat of Apple’s Jade at Fairyhouse last month has been boosted because her victim simply wasn’t at the races that day.Honeysuckle’s next destination has been said to be over two miles in February, either at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Red Mills Hurdle at Gowran Park. Benie was another Yuletide no-show, but for different reasons.

“Benie is in good form but just not straight enough to run this week, so we left her at home,” said trainer Willie Mullins. “She might just go straight to Cheltenham. We could go to the Galmoy Hurdle or something like that. Last year she went straight to Cheltenham, but last year was funny with the ground.”

It’s far from uncharacteristic for Mullins to permit a major player to make their seasonal debut at the Festival, albeit last term that was because he deemed the ground unsuitably fast for much of the build-up. It’s pushing it to link the first fall of Benie’s career with that lack of match practice and she looked to have the measure of ultimate winner Roksana when she took her fateful tumble.

Of course, Roksana herself remains a player after her encouraging second to Summerville Boy, on disadvantageous weight terms, in the Grade Two Relkeel Hurdle on New Year’s Day although trainer Dan Skelton may seek to explore the Stayers’ Hurdle option if that contest looks to lack comparative depth.

A number of the Mullins mares’ multitude was out in force in a Leopardstown Grade Three last Sunday, yielding him four of the first five places. Stormy Ireland led them home in her trademark unchallenged fashion, jumping big at times in a manner that again betrayed she’d been schooling over fences. However, her trainer doesn’t see her as Cheltenham material.

“She's rated 147 [since reassessed to 148] and would really want to be 157 to 160 to be good enough to win the mares’ hurdle at Cheltenham,” Mullins said. “She'll be good enough to enter in it and probably run in it, but I couldn't see her as winning material. We'll try and find better opportunities for her if we can.”

Stablemate Elfile chased her home by a respectful five-and-a-half lengths, in doing so building on her seasonal debut success over two miles at Thurles with a career best. Sixth in last year’s Dawn Run, she looks more at home over 2m4f and could well be asked to play a supporting role in this Festival event.

The Gordon Elliott-trained Black Tears, again wearing cheekpieces, claimed third ahead of My Sister Sarah but neither is good enough for this target, albeit the latter needs to step back up to three miles.

Eglantine Du Seuil, a last-gasp winner of the 2019 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, finished a lacklustre fifth and failed to build on her more promising seasonal debut effort behind Stormy Ireland. She lined up on disadvantageous weight terms here, carrying a penalty for her Festival success, so maybe she can blossom in more suitable circumstances later in the season.

Talking of inanimate performances, the Nicky Henderson-trained Countister – third on her seasonal debut in last term’s County Hurdle and fifth to Laurina in the previous year’s Dawn Run – trailed in 33 lengths adrift of Not So Sleepy at Ascot before Christmas.

Lady Buttons got the better of Happy Diva and La Bague Au Roi in a thrilling finish to a mares’ Listed chase at Doncaster last Sunday. All three mares are better chasers than they were hurdlers, but the winner is nonetheless set to revert to the smaller obstacles for the Grade Two event at the same track that she won last season.

She was fourth in this race last year, but trainer Phil Kirby might be tempted to try a Festival chase instead this time around, given she received multiple Festival entries last year.

Advised on 20/11/19: Altior at 14/1 with William Hill for the Ryanair

Advised on 17/12/19: Chacun Pour Soi at 4/1 with various firms for the Champion Chase

Advised on 17/12/19: Mister Fisher at 16/1 e/w with various firms for the Marsh Novices’ Chase

Advised on 28/11/19: Thyme Hill at 14/1 with various firms for the Albert Bartlett

Advised on 12/12/19: Carefully Selected at 20/1 with Skybet or BetVictor for the NH Chase