Welcome back to Road To Cheltenham – the Racing TV column and accompanying show that takes you by the hand and merrily gambols through the Jumps season alongside you. Each week, we’ll be focussing on the key action from the preceding days and trying to foresee which horses might thrive in which future circumstances – whether that be at Kempton, Leopardstown, Aintree, Punchestown or, indeed, at Cheltenham.

It’s become fashionable to criticise the Festival for the long shadow it casts over the earlier months of the Jumps season. What was once celebrated as an enviable crescendo to a season-long narrative is now characterised as a problem for the industry. “It’s not all about Cheltenham,” we cry. Or: “It’s too soon to be talking about races in March.”

There is no doubt that for a racehorse owner or trainer, too much focus on the Cheltenham Festival is self-defeating. Only 28 horses can ever win there annually – and last year, 23 of them were trained in Ireland.

However, the sport’s participants also can’t just blame the media and pretend they didn’t feed the monster. It’s they who routinely cited such lofty targets after winning some egg-and-spoon race. It’s they who spoke of “waiting until Cheltenham”, thereby keeping perfectly sound horses in their boxes all winter so they’re “fresh” for a busier spring campaign. The press didn’t push them into it – if anything, it gave us less to write or talk about in the interceding months.

In a culture in which "experiences" generate the most attention and largest sales, the Cheltenham Festival has undeniably been very much part of the zeitgeist. Like it or not, it retains that status with the wider public. It is one of British racing’s few commodities to reach outside the sporting bubble – even the Grand National and Royal Ascot don’t quite compare in terms of year-long traction. That’s not something we can, or should, throw out with the bathwater.

Clearly, there is a balance here to be struck. I was not in favour of the Festival expanding to four days due to the diluting impact on what are billed as championship clashes. Were the meeting to expand again, it would not only further unbalance the season and channel more form-lines through one narrow prism – and if you don’t act at this track, tough! – but it would also stretch the credibility of its own reputation past destruction point.

Equally, we can’t pretend that working out which horses are going to dominate the sport’s major races is not the overriding preoccupation for all involved. It’s a key part of the enjoyment of being a fan – and of owning, training and riding these horses. And we should make no apology for that.

So, keeping these essential truths proportionately in mind, let’s get this party started.

We were still hiding from Trick-Or-Treaters and plugging up the dog’s ears when many a staying chaser’s season had already begun sparking into life. Whilst Down Royal’s Champion Chase was explosive, the returns of second-season chasers Chantry House and Envoi Allen (the latter dealt with in the Ryanair section) had clearly been left in a corner of the garage for too long.

The reigning Gold Cup winner was beaten into third by the King George winner in Down Royal’s Champion Chase last month – exactly the calibre of clash that jumps enthusiasts long to see outside of the annual seven-week flurry from mid-March. For the winner, this season is very much not ‘all about Cheltenham’ and that was doubtless a factor in the outcome of this Grade One.

In the post-race wash-up, winning trainer Paul Nicholls stressed this was always Frodon’s target “from the minute he came back [into the yard, following his break] in July” whereas his counterpart Henry de Bromhead revealed that Minella Indo “was a little bit shorter than I thought he was and caught me out a little”.

Pleasingly, not only is a re-match feasible but we might have to wait a mere six weeks for it as de Bromhead is inclined to direct his Gold Cup winner towards the ladbrokes King George VI Chase whilst taking in next week’s Betfair Chase (and the Savills at Christmas, keeping exclusively to left-handed tracks) with A Plus Tard, the runner-up in his Cheltenham 1-2.

It will be back to Kempton for Frodon, on whom at Down Royal Bryony Frost executed a well-judged front-running ride uncannily similar to that of their Boxing Day triumph. Albeit starting more promptly, the partnership soon bounded out in front and dictated a decent tempo that still enabled them to stretch their pursuers every time they got close.

This was most apparent when, as favourite Minella Indo was driven up Frodon’s inner at the second last by Rachael Blackmore, the race-fit Galvin jumped upsides. Jamie Codd chose to play him late, having watched the Gold Cup winner sit closer but come under pressure and, alongside his own mount, Delta Work working harder to stay in contention. That was the closest he got.

Frodon was never quite headed, pulling out some more on the run to the last, which he jumped as scruffily as Galvin, and losing no ground thereafter. The winner’s jumping wasn’t quite as metronomic as his most flawless of rounds – he also fluffed the seventh – but it was utterly reliable when most critical, during that dual-flank challenge at the penultimate flight.

Beyond defending his King George title, the major targets in Frodon’s stated campaign also include the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. The Festival was not mentioned – with good reason, as although Frodon loves Cheltenham (particularly in deep ground) by the time March rolls around the Ryanair is usually too pacey and the Gold Cup too far.

Following this career best and with such a strong record at the track, Galvin could yet end up in the Gold Cup. However, following his seasonal debut success at Punchestown last month, trainer Gordon Elliott said he thought the Randox Grand National “would be more up his street”.

With that target in mind, it sadly may be doubtful whether we see much more of Galvin before the National weights being published in February – another self-defeating deterrent to transparent competition, or even running at all, that needs addressing by the racing industry. Operations as powerful as Elliott’s can comfortably opt to target-train numbers of their string in this way.

When citing the King George as a “highly likely” option for Minella Indo, de Bromhead observed that “he's maybe not your typical King George horse”. This was presumably because he’s long on stamina and yet his RSA effort, mixing it with subsequent Ryanair winner Allaho, showed he wasn’t short of pace either.

He hasn’t much experience of jumping fences right-handed but it wasn’t the cause of his defeat at Down Royal. His fall in the Savills Chase and seeming subsequent loss of confidence in the Irish Gold Cup last season are now starting to look like isolated incidents, both of which – it may or may not prove significant – came at Leopardstown. His presence would further enrich what’s shaping up to be an exciting King George.

Before moving on to discuss one rival Minella Indo might well meet at Kempton, let’s wrap up Down Royal. Elliott and the O’Leary brothers claimed the now-sidelined Jack Kennedy for the ride on Delta Work, preventing him from resuming his partnership with the Gold Cup winner.

No alarms and no surprises – this was a rare downside in otherwise enviable employment – but the notion that Delta Work is “Gordon's Gold Cup horse”, as Eddie O’Leary called him, did elicit my sympathy.

O’Leary got the excuse in ahead of time – “Delta Work always needs his first run of the season; that’s been well documented down the years...” – and reminded us the horse picked up an injury when an uncompetitive third behind Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup last February. But reportedly advertising this error-prone chaser in the same breath as their 2016 Gold Cup hero Don Cossack made me want to call Trading Standards.

Chantry House, however, is being merchandised by trainer Nicky Henderson in the manner of Gold Cup pretenders Might Bite and Santini before him – starting his second season over fences with victory in Sandown’s intermediate chase. That pair faced three times the number of rivals compared with last Saturday’s match, but all three were sent off the heavy odds-on favourite in what again turned out to be a weirdly fascinating event. Like a scab you can’t help but pick.

Might Bite was suspiciously well behaved when winning in 2017 – lacking the mercurial brilliance of his just-stopping-off-for-a-quick-one-halfway-up-the-run-in-love RSA success eight months earlier – and ultimately beat a certain Frodon by nine lengths. Santini’s scrambling neck success from a much-inferior rival two years later was an unedifying spectacle, as he clearly hated the track – albeit Sandown is not alone in that.

Chantry House’s performance was probably more akin to that of Might Bite in terms of quality – albeit with sole rival The Big Breakaway beaten 37 lengths, his ponderous-jumping display defying the intended enlivening effect of first-time cheekpieces, it’s hard to be sure.

Winning rider Nico de Boinville had to administer an enlivening flick of the whip when approaching the stands for the first time, betraying that his mount was unaccustomed to making his own running. The only previous instance was on his Point-to-Point debut at Stowlin in April 2018, when he led after the fifth fence until unseating his rider with a bad mistake three out. Monkfish went on to win that race, with beaten favourite Fury Road fourth and Fiddlerontheroof fifth. Small world.

Chantry House had ballooned the sixth fence before receiving his wake-up call and was joined by The Big Breakaway for the one and only time at the next. After that, the winner pulled steadily further and further clear, his rival finding the quickfire Railway Fences particularly problematic.

After publicly extolling the virtue of this two-runner event to the gathered crowd, Henderson all but conceded there was nothing for it but to head to the King George – the Betfair Chase comes too soon and stablemate Champ, who “has to go left-handed”, is heading there anyway.

“I think the King George has to be one of the options,” he said. “But I see no reason really why not . . . What I like about it is that because he had the pace to win at two-and-a-half [miles] throughout the early part of last year, I think he has the pace to travel at what Frodon is going to set them and therefore he’ll still be within a comfort zone – and he stays. So, those are the pluses, but there are lots of things to discuss.”

All of which mysteriousness set me to worry there might be some obscure walkover option at Newbury or some other racecourse had announced a public gallops morning over Christmas to draw the frenzied crowds. Henderson has hopped over to Ireland for the Savills Chase equivalent in the past, even winning it with Gold Cup hero Bobs Worth in 2013.

But the King George looks ideal for a young horse as yet unexposed over three miles – and one who’s been as lucky as he has been good. When winning the Marsh, he benefitted from Envoi Allen falling and Harry Skelton having a rush of blood to the head on Shan Blue. Upped to 3m1f at Aintree for the Mildmay Novices’ Chase, he appeared to be travelling less well than Espoir Du Romay when left clear by that horse crumpling on landing two out.

Shan Blue finished 32 lengths adrift on that occasion but the Liverpool race had an end-of-term feel to it. It was a very different Shan Blue who jumped The Big Breakaway silly in the Kauto Star Chase last Christmas and who would have dotted up when, more than 20 lengths clear, falling at the third last in Wetherby’s Charlie Hall Chase last month.

As is widely known thanks to trainer Dan Skelton’s new series of helpful and informative videos, due to some residual stiffness in his neck Shan Blue misses both the Ladbrokes Trophy (in which he’d have been thrown in off 148, the BHA handicappers hamstrung by their own rule preventing the reassessment of horses who fail to complete further than two out) and the King George, for which he is also ideally suited. Something expensive – on a flat track – has this horse’s name on it.

Espoir Du Romay has made his seasonal return, too, in a far more engrossing intermediate chase, the Colin Parker Memorial, staged in a fast time at Carlisle last month. He was one of four horses to leap the third-last fence in a line but, along with chase debutant Ahoy Senor (addressed in the novices’ section), he started to falter by the next flight and was beaten approaching the last.

Trainer Kim Bailey has since said he knew Espoir Du Romay was “a fraction short” of fitness and now plans to send him to Ascot this month for the Grade Two Chase his yard won last year. That winner was Imperial Aura – not seen since making a catalogue of errors behind Allaho in the Ryanair, ultimately pulling up with a broken blood vessel. He’s set to make his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase, having had an operation to improve his breathing over the summer.

Bailey has also entered both horses in the King George and, although Espoir Du Romay probably held the advantage of freshness over his more decorated rivals at Aintree, he remains an upwardly mobile prospect for the months ahead.

The finish at Carlisle was fought out between Pay The Piper – who’s improving over intermediate trips and whose jumping when short of space at the fourth last suggested he’ll be well-equipped for competitive handicap assignments in the medium term – and, conceding him 6lb, the Festival’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase runner-up Fiddlerontheroof.

The latter also jumped well as his rivals threatened to out-speed him and he tenaciously wore down Pay The Piper as his stamina kicked in approaching the line. Although he rather inherited second at Cheltenham, after stablemate The Big Breakaway had tried to hassle Monkfish, and he was tailed off when third behind Chantry House at Aintree, this opening bid for the season hinted at better to come over three miles and further this season.

Assistant trainer Joe Tizzard, who is soon to take over from his father Colin, later spoke of choosing between the Betfair Chase and a viable-looking mark for the Ladbrokes Trophy as Fiddlerontheroof’s next chapter. Two years ago, stable companion Lostintranslation took this same Carlisle event en route to scalping no less a rival than Bristol De Mai in his Betfair Chase manor. He went on to run, disappointingly, in the King George – a race in which Fiddlerontheroof is also engaged.

Meanwhile, it’s “back to the drawing board” for distant Sandown runner-up The Big Breakaway, who has the Santini problem – albeit with less evident talent – of few tracks to suit his galumphing style and less-than-assured jumping.

Another second-season chaser worth mentioning at this juncture is yet to make his return – Paul Nolan’s Latest Exhibition, who after three straight defeats by Monkfish ducked him at the Cheltenham Festival and rounded off his season with fourth in the Irish Grand National.

At his best over fences, there were only three lengths between him and last season’s top staying novice chaser – a short-priced favourite for the Gold Cup when ruled out for the season. I have long nurtured a theory Latest Exhibition is better left-handed, so that 66-1 William Hill is offering for that distant Cheltenham target might come to appear generous – certainly from a place perspective. Interestingly, his only current entry is in the Grade One Hatton’s Grace Hurdle.

This was a division in evolution last season, with no clear pecking order emerging until Cheltenham. Its key events went to the opportunistic (Kemboy at the Dublin Racing Festival), the carefully curated (Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase and Clan Des Obeaux in the Betway Bowl) or a horse who combined both (Frodon at Kempton). The defeat of dual Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo was ultimately emblematic.

So, it’s hard to imagine last year’s Gold Cup also-rans bouncing back to any convincing degree. Willie Mullins has responded by vowing to campaign Al Boum Photo differently, in the belief that a sole one-sided outing between Cheltenham Festivals left him vulnerable.

“I’ll probably campaign him a bit more this time around,” he said in his Racing Post stable tour. “Last season it maybe didn’t suit him having the long Covid break. He missed his run at Punchestown… and he wasn’t getting back to the track until New Year’s Day at Tramore – that possibly impacted him when going for his third Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

“He’ll be campaigned a little differently to try to get him to the Gold Cup with a harder fitness than he had before. He still produced a good run at Cheltenham last season but I think the way it panned out for him was more about his preparation than how the race unfolded on the day.”

If that lack of match practice manifested itself in a series of fiddly errors, then a busier campaign could well give Al Boum Photo a realistic chance of getting involved again. But the truth is – as much discussed on Road To Cheltenham last season – for a dual Gold Cup winner, he has never been the most polished of jumpers. And there are yet-younger rivals in his path now.

But let’s round off last year’s contenders. Age has undoubtedly narrowed 11-year-old Native River’s horizons and, as Colin Tizzard said in his Racing Post stable tour, “it’s no fun seeing him pushed along on good ground as he’s flat out” – which is exactly what he was when a distant fourth in last term’s Gold Cup. “We still think in his conditions he’s capable of winning one of those Graded races,” Tizzard added – and I tend to agree.

Tizzard believes his team has got Lostintranslation – pulled up before two out in the Gold Cup – “back to somewhere like his best” but, after double wind surgery, the lingering doubt remains whether that’s good enough anyway.

Champ jumped appallingly in the Gold Cup, causing de Boinville to pull him up before the seventh – a disappointment Henderson has ascribed to “back issues”. “They needed attention again after Cheltenham, when he literally couldn’t jump,” he told the Racing Post in his stable tour. “I’m sure he’s a Gold Cup horse and hope the surgery can help prove that.” These claims rest on his unlikely RSA success in 2020 but his profile is too flaky.

Former stablemate Santini is now housed at Polly Gundry’s yard, with his sights set on a third Gold Cup attempt. He failed to face a first-time visor in March, despite having schooled in it, and made a howling error at the seventh. His best hopes are – as Ruby suggested, not entirely humorously, on Road To Cheltenham two years ago – in the Welsh National.

Cyrname’s tame showing in the Charlie Hall was proof, if it were needed, that his grip on racing is a tenuous one. “We don’t want to ask him to do anything he shouldn’t,” Paul Nicholls told the Racing Post. “But if we did run him again perhaps the Peterborough Chase on a flat track, where he can get a lead, might suit him. We might have one more throw of the dice, if he’s all right, but his welfare comes first.”

Stablemate Clan Des Obeaux remains a going concern, however, and his season will be stage-managed to encompass the King George, Newbury’s Denman Chase in February, a defence of his Betway Bowl title at Aintree and a trip to Punchestown. Rather than again leave his Kempton bid behind in the Betfair Chase, Nicholls will instead send Next Destination – runner-up to Galvin in the National Hunt Chase – to Haydock.

The striking differences between the Old and New Courses have always been fundamental to the way in which I think about races at Cheltenham. If you’re a fully committed Roadie, skip to the next paragraph. If you’re late to the Road to Cheltenham series, you may not know that Ruby and I devoted a whole show (watch above) to explaining their contrasting topography a couple of years ago.

Nevertheless, despite knowing this and I thought duly valuing that knowledge, the overriding take-home lesson for me from the 2021 Festival was that I still don’t think about these particularities enough. More importantly, perhaps, neither do the betting markets.

Goshen illustrates this point most extremely. In 2020, the more galloping nature of the New Course permitted him still to be dominating the Triumph Hurdle by ten lengths when getting his feet in a tangle at the last. Yet by only the third obstacle in last term’s Champion Hurdle, Jamie Moore could scarcely keep his mount within the parameters of the Old Course, so markedly was he hanging right.

Now, perhaps age and bitter experience had deepened Goshen’s eccentricities, but we all knew this horse needed to go the other way around. We’d been talking about it for almost two years. Yet, on a constantly turning left-handed track, he was still sent off the 11-2 third favourite for the season’s most competitive two-mile hurdle last March. Yes, there might have been a want of credible opposition but nonetheless: go figure.

There were other, more subtle manifestations of this key consideration at last season’s Festival, too. Monkfish, Chacun Pour Soi, Asterion Forlonge, Allaho, Notebook – perhaps even Quilixios, Zanahiyr, Sporting John and Franco De Port – in my book all of these had, or have, reason to be suited by one course more than another. Right or wrong though my working might prove to be on an individual basis, I am convinced of the legitimacy of the overarching theory and, this season, intend to give it the respect I believe it deserves.

I mention this now by way of elucidating the ante-post position on Energumene in the Ryanair that I took in the Road To Punchestown show back in April.

One element of my theory involved the potential for reigning Ryanair winner Allaho to drop back in trip this season, especially had he beaten Chacun Pour Soi in Punchestown’s Champion Chase. At a course that clearly suits his stablemate, however, he failed in that endeavour – albeit trainer Willie Mullins recently maintained in his Racing Post stable tour that he “still wouldn't give up on Allaho over two miles”.

The other part of my thinking is unaffected by events. I’ve held Energumene in the highest regard since our sectional analysis of his victory at Gowran Park last November, but his tendency to adjust right was a major drawback for his chances in the Arkle, staged on the Old Course. We never got to find out what would have happened, sadly, because lameness ruled him out of Cheltenham.

Yet it’s the same venue for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, his named ultimate target in 2022 and for which he’s already the 5/1 second favourite already behind Shishkin, after pulverising fair rivals at Punchestown in April. I have no doubt that a clash between these two horses would be a proper challenge for whoever came out on top – let’s hope we get to witness it – but I believe two miles around Cheltenham’s Old Course would heavily favour the British-trained horse.

The Ryanair would be a different ballgame, however. The more markedly right-adjusting Asterion Forlonge – when an (at the time) career-best third in last term’s Marsh Novices’ Chase, as compared with his errant fourth in the Supreme 12 months earlier – demonstrated what a difference a day makes. I’d only fancy Energumene at Cheltenham if he turns out 24 hours later than intended. For me, 14-1 builds in the risk of not getting the rub of the green.

Envoi Allen, the world’s most under-priced horse, could end up in the Ryanair as trainer Henry de Bromhead is already long-suited in the Gold Cup. That’s what bookmakers think, too, as they have him at (chortle) 15-2 for the shorter contest and 16-1 for the premier event. Of course, that’s if he proves good enough over fences to feature in either race.

I’m only half-teasing devout Allenists with that line. He Who Was Prophesied again delighted the eye in a Down Royal Grade Two over 2m 3.5f last month – jumping fluently and setting an exacting enough pace to crack Thyestes winner Coko Beach by the point where the third last should have been (omitted due to the low sun). But that rival was making his seasonal return, surely wouldn’t have been revved up for this encounter and needs at least three miles.

Envoi Allen’s likely optimum trip is as yet unknown – as is his ability to mix it at the top table over fences, because he’s failed the twice that he’s tried it so far.

At Cheltenham, he got buzzed up on the way to post for the Marsh Novices’ Chase but appeared to settle fine in the race itself and fell for no obvious reason at the fourth. Afterwards, it was speculated that the move from Gordon Elliott’s yard to that of Henry de Bromhead might have been particularly unsettling for this horse, whose nervous disposition had hitherto gone unmentioned.

At Punchestown just over four weeks later, he jumped deliberately and was never able to muster the gallop to get involved with Colreevy and Monkfish – the former now retired to the paddocks for breeding, the latter out for the season with a tendon injury. However, it later emerged that Envoi Allen had chipped a bone in a hind joint, requiring surgery. Albeit it was far from clear when the injury happened, rider Rachael Blackmore did report that, before pulling him up, he’d hung left throughout the race.

At Down Royal, his verve had clearly returned but he was facing hugely inferior horses in the main – even Coko Beach was rated 13lbs lower and eventual runner-up Echoes Of Family a whopping 73lbs – so the sum of his achievements is hard to calculate. De Bromhead measured it by the breadth of Blackmore’s smile.

Both the John Durkan and the King George were mentioned as potential targets, albeit Envoi Allen is as yet unproven over the latter’s longer trip of three miles. They will be a more objective test, for which this horse will doubtless be too short in the betting.

This division is yet to get going, with recent victories for Notebook and Captain Guinness having the distinct whiff of the lesser leagues about them. However, we don’t have to wait long for the premiership players to take to the pitch, with Champion Chase heroine Put The Kettle On set to square up to Nube Negra and Politologue in this Sunday’s Shloer Chase and Willie Mullins perming one of three against Shishkin in next month’s Tingle Creek.

“We’re thinking of spinning the wheel a bit that weekend,” Mullins said. “The John Durkan, the Hilly Way and the Tingle Creek are all on the same weekend and we have Allaho, Energumene and Chacun Pour Soi for those races. I’d imagine one of them might well go to Sandown. We haven’t decided which one will go where yet and I’ll be keeping my options open until nearer the time.”

Thanks to a far from frantic pace, the entire field was still within hailing distance of the leader as they turned for home in last year’s Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Even Sceau Royal, who got badly squeezed out and almost came down after the third last, was ultimately beaten less than four lengths.

These facts lend weight to Willie Mullins’ theory that the tactics were wrong on Chacun Pour Soi – that had he been ridden assertively, as when later thumping Allaho and Nube Negra at Punchestown, he could have won. It’s an approach certainly worth trying next March and an intriguing counterpoint to the widely held theory that he’s a weak finisher, who can’t cope with Cheltenham’s uphill run-in.

I must admit I’m more sold on the trainer’s interpretation than the flat-track bully idea – but nonetheless I don’t think the tight, turning Old Course suits the horse. Right or wrong, I will be working on the premise that Chacun Pour Soi will always be a fistful of pounds below his brilliant best whenever he races there. Until then, however, I expect him to be a force to be reckoned with wherever he goes this season.

I’ve already discussed my Old Course concerns for Energumene in the above section. Although he may have been over the top for the season after his pulverising Ryanair success, Allaho’s Punchestown defeat – when he struggled to keep up – also suggested to me that he lacks the requisite speed for Cheltenham’s two-mile enterprise.

Nimble jumping is Put The Kettle On’s chief weapon and she’s unbeaten in four starts at Cheltenham, including in last year’s Shloer. However, her intended return at Gowran last month was aborted due to the ground being unsuitably quick and she faces a far weightier task this Sunday than 12 months earlier.

Paul Nicholls is bound to have Politologue primed for his seasonal debut because he must pick his fights with this doughty ten-year-old and the Tingle Creek is not low-hanging fruit this year. Yet Nube Negra will surely run well, at a course to which he proved suited – an unknown going into last term’s Festival – when a narrow second in the Champion Chase. There has surely been an overreaction in Cheltenham’s ante-post betting to his Punchestown defeat. Yet even on that occasion, he had the pace to chase the winner when Allaho could not.

In March, a stronger pace would have resolved the traffic problems he faced late on when trying to reel in the better-positioned winner. Had he not clipped the top of the last and nodded on landing prior to having to be switched, he might well have won.

Odds of 25-1 to go half a length better against Put The Kettle On at a track that I suspect minimises Chacun Pour Soi’s talent? Sounds fair to me.

By the way, I fully expect Shishkin to translate his top-class novice form to open company this season – sectional comparison of his Wayward Lad victory compared favourably with Nube Negra’s Desert Orchid success over the same course and distance, for example. But he did spend the season beating up the same, markedly inferior horses and 6-4 for the Champion Chase pretty much puts the crown on his head already.

Even though he won Naas’s Grade Three Poplar Square Chase readily – beating the free-going Andy Dufresne, one-dimensional Felix Desjy and underachieving chaser Darver Star (who capsized at the second last) – Captain Guinness isn’t quite top class. Admittedly he went off far too hard with Allmankind in the Arkle, allowing Shishkin to pick them both off, but Energumene simply ran him legless at Punchestown.

Notebook took advantage of Samcro’s begrudging attitude to the penultimate flight to settle last Sunday’s Fortia Chase at Naas with one leap. Rachael Blackmore had worked to keep Notebook in contention and that was enough to cause her only rival to decline Jack Kennedy’s invitation to see a stride. Samcro immediately went from going better to being beaten and they were ultimately separated by ten lengths.

Henry de Bromhead will surely explore a longer trip with Notebook this season, rather than see him continue to fall short at the highest grade. Aintree was unlikely to have suited him when finishing last of seven behind Fakir D’Oudairies over 2m4f in April and, if he does pitch up at Cheltenham again, a New Course assignment is likely to be much more to his taste.

Physical frailties have unpicked both Samcro’s raw ability and his inclination to use it. He hasn’t won since outmanoeuvred by Melon in the 2020 Marsh Novices’ Chase and it wouldn’t be surprising if connections opted to draw stumps.

Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor were handed tough opening gigs against second-season chasers last month and, although these resulted in markedly contrasting fortunes, both displayed abundant promise in their new discipline.

Bravemansgame took on subsequent Charlie Hall inheritor Fusil Raffles and confirmed clutz The Big Breakaway in an intermediate chase at Newton Abbot. Dictating from the outset, he displayed a positive demeanour and a polished technique – at one point instinctively adjusting his stride to meet a fence correctly, as if he’d been doing it all his life. Both rivals were unable to land a glove.

Burdened by trainer Paul Nicholls likening him to the mighty Denman, Bravemansgame does look likely to be a better chaser than hurdler. He won the Grade One Challow as a novice before finishing third to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore – albeit engaging in more direct combat than ultimate runner-up Gaillard Du Mesnil – and seven lengths adrift of Ahoy Senor, never quite on terms, when upped to three miles at Aintree. He missed his intended engagement in last Saturday’s Grade Two at Wincanton – leaving a three-runner affair in which Captain Tom Cat beat Mick Pastor – and next heads either to Haydock for a graduation event or Newbury the following week for a graded novice, en route to a crack at the Grade Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Ahoy Senor’s encounter with Fiddlerontheroof et al in a competitive intermediate chase at Carlisle was described in an earlier section. The debutant led his more experienced rivals, jumping boldly, until joined at the third last – where he nonetheless stood off determinedly. He’d been headed and was beaten when getting in close to the next flight and sprawling on landing, unseating Derek Fox.

Provided he has done himself no physical damage with that unfortunate exit, this scopey horse looks sure to make his mark as a staying chaser. He was an unconsidered 66-1 rag when making all to win the Grade One Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree but there was no fluke about that success. He boasts untapped stamina and potential.

The other British-trained novice to have made a big impression to date is Third Time Lucki – whose path to Saturday’s From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Chase at Cheltenham, where he may face the Wincanton 1-2 mentioned above, is being daily documented via trainer Dan Skelton’s social media output.

Three times a winner as a novice hurdler, but whose best effort came when sixth in the County, this horse underwent surgery to help his breathing over the summer and made a wildly impressive chase debut over Saturday’s course and distance last month. Jumping into the lead at the seventh, he’d shot clear on the bridle by four out and was even being restrained by Harry Skelton on the turn for home. The margin between him and the more experienced Irish-trained runner-up, Buddy Rich, was a hard-held eight-and-a-half lengths by the line.

Many observers are understandably wary of giving too much credence to British form as a result of last season’s various drubbings and clearly Buddy Rich is unlikely to be among trainer Gordon Elliott’s top-tier novices. That said, he did go on to defeat Ballyadam at Navan next time out – albeit his former stablemate has to date done nothing over fences to ameliorate his tarnished reputation over hurdles.

The penultimate item of emergent novice-chasing form to mention for now is Lifetime Ambition’s fluid success at Down Royal last month. It took him until March to get off the mark over hurdles, but he then banged in another wide-margin success at Punchestown in April. Early evidence suggests he’s an improved model over the larger obstacles – albeit he dictated from the front.

Beacon Edge – last season’s Boyne Hurdle winner and fourth in the Stayers’ event at the Festival – was sent off favourite in that Northern Irish contest, but he could only stay on late after failing to attack his fences with comparable relish.

However, third-placed Vanillier – the surprise Albert Bartlett winner who then disappointed at Punchestown – shaped well for a return longer trips. The Elliott-trained Grand Paradis failed to find a leg when trying to stay in the race at the second last, having made some scrappy errors en route.

Finally, last term’s Dovecote winner Cape Gentleman has made a convincing start to his chasing career with two victories already under his belt – at Punchestown last month and most recently in a Grade Three at Cork, where he beat Run Wild Fred by 14 lengths. Cape Gentleman is entered at Punchestown on Saturday, where he could encounter Embittered, Buddy Rich and the latter’s stablemate, the four-year-old filly Riviere D’Etel.

Lydia’s portfolio:

Advised 26/04/21: Energumene at 14/1 (general) for the Ryanair Chase

Back now: Nube Negra each-way at 25/1 with Bet365 [the widely-available 20/1 is also acceptable] for the Champion Chase

Ruby’s portfolio:

Did he mention he tipped Allaho last season?