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Lydia Hislop's Gold Cup day tips for the 2022 Cheltenham Festival

Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023

At least 21mm of rain fell on selectively watered ground on the Old Course on Wednesday, changing the ground from Good on times on Tuesday to Heavy by the time of the fifth race on the second day. The weather forecasts beforehand had varied, some predicting no rain at all and others up to 5-6mm.

The New Course, brought into action from Thursday, was last watered the previous Friday and began racing yesterday on ground officially described as Soft, but times during racing suggested conditions were improving throughout the day.

So, with no further rain due at the time of writing and Cheltenham having a reputation for being quick-draining, I’m working on the basis the ground will be no worse than Good To Soft by the start of racing on Friday.

1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle

Finished: 5thSP: 12/1

The greater test of stamina presented by 2m1f on the New Course, as compared with two miles around Leopardstown for the Spring Juvenile Hurdle last month, already offered Fil Dor a ray of hope for turning around his form with Vauban in the JCB Triumph Hurdle. Wednesday’s rain only increased his chances and shortened his actual odds.

Gordon Elliott has consistently indicated that he believes Fil Dor the superior horse to stablemate, Pied Piper, who dotted up in the course-and-distance Finesse in January – a race that fell apart around his ears and resulted in a nine-length success. He had previously beaten Vauban by just half a length at Punchestown on their mutual hurdle debut when jumping more cleanly and getting an uninterrupted passage to the line.

Vauban’s three-length success came in a steadily run edition of the Spring, in which he adjusted right – not a great issue for the New Course – and hung left after the last flight. Willie Mullins has since spoken about potentially campaigning him in Pattern races on the Flat, suggesting he perceives the horse as a speedy type – not necessarily the profile of Triumph Hurdler, perhaps?

My position in this race derived from the same race. IL ETAIT TEMPS was making his hurdling debut when taking third, coming from further back in a race that favoured a more forward pitch and finishing off his race strongly. Likely to relish both the ground and the heavier accent on stamina, he is still a reasonable price at 14/1.

Icare Allen jumped poorly in the Spring but has since battled his way back into consideration with a comfortable victory at Punchestown, albeit he still wasn’t error-free.

I had expected Knight Salute to prove best of the British, as he tends only to do enough to win and is perhaps underestimated, but the rain has detracted a tad from his chance. Dual winner Doctor Parnassus, who takes a sharp step up in grade here, might well be better suited by conditions. Both Gary Moore-trained horses, Porticello and the first-time-hooded Teddy Blue, are improving but need to upgrade their form quite markedly here.

Selection

Advised 09/02/22: Il Etait Temps at 20/1 each-way

2.10 - McCoy Contractors Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Finished: 8thSP: 16/1

Finished: 3rdSP: 13/2

State Man has been the yak horse for this race, not least from Ruby Walsh – who has mentioned him positively more than once in the Road To Cheltenham series without actually tipping him for this race. Galopin Des Champs in last year’s Martin Pipe, anyone? This horse is duly short at 9/2.

I prefer MY MATE MOZZIE, who was clearly being prepared for this target with a change of tactics behind Sir Gerhard at left-handed Leopardstown last time. As his Navan success demonstrated, he does jump right but the New Course tends to forgive that trait. This novice is smart – he would have won the Grade One Royal Bond but for making a hash of the last flight last November.

If I like him, I have to like COLONEL MUSTARD, too. He finished 35 lengths ahead of My Mate Mozzie at the Dublin Racing Festival and, although I’ve explained the various reasons why the latter would not have given his running, he’s still receiving weight from him here. Colonel Mustard is a second-season novice hurdler with high-class form not far behind Echoes In Rain and Jonbon.

Dan Skelton has an excellent record in this contest, so Greatwood winner West Cork merits respect – as does wide-margin Imperial Cup winner Suprise Package, especially granted the rain.

I Like To Move It has a better chance here rather than he would have done against the monstrous Constitution Hill and pals in Tuesday’s Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but the Twiston-Davies team will have to revert to more patient tactics. Making or forcing the pace, as this horse tends to do, is not a winning formula in this race.

Selections

Back now: My Mate Mozzie at 18/1 each-way 7 places with Bet365

Back now: Colonel Mustard at 9/1 with Bet365

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2.50 - Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Finished: 9thSP: 12/1

It’s surely impossible not to love the giant Hillcrest, who has ability to match his giant frame and produced a career best when upped to three miles at Haydock last time, sealing his participation in this race. He also boasts winning course experience, albeit the rival he beat by a comfortable two lengths was thumped by more than ten times that margin by Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore. He could have star quality, but it’s a competitive race in which to take such a short price.

Ginto is trying three miles for the first time here and promises to improve for it. He jumps right but that tends to be less of an issue on the New Course than the Old. With six prior lifetime starts, he’s towards the lower end of the experience range that this race has traditionally tended to reward and will need to be smart to win. I acknowledge that this trend might still be evolving – and he might be just that!

Stag Horn and Falcon Eight, respectively rated 108 and 110 as thorough stayers on the Flat at their peak, are interesting recruits to hurdles – especially for this contest. The former also boasts a slick hurdling technique and the latter has cheekpieces reapplied, with a track record that suggests this is a big positive. Will they be able to deal with this test, though?

John McConnell saddled Streets Of Doyen to be placed in this race last year and fields two contrasting types here – Bardenstown Lad, who has plenty of experience but needs to improve, and the rawer Mahler Mission, who looked a relentless galloper when seeing off the talented but greenly wayward The Real Whacker at Doncaster.

Ballygrifincottage (representing absent long-time ante-post favourite Blazing Khal’s form), Shantreusse – for whom the rain was needed – and The Nice Guy are all promising sorts but potentially too naïve for this. Willie Mullins has always rated Ramillies and he is steadily improving but has a bad habit of making mistakes.

Having prematurely sided with the non-runner Hollow Games – who runs in the Martin Pipe instead – I’ve been casting around for a horse I like at a price I can stomach. GOOD TIME JONNY, who was supplemented for this race last Saturday, fits the bill. He has grafted his way into this race, most recently with handicap success at the Dublin Racing Festival, after which Tony Martin said he would not run at the Festival because he didn’t like Cheltenham when trying it in November.

Yet that was the tightly left-turning Old Course and Good Time Jonny looked on that occasion to find proceedings just too much of a rush. Martin has since acknowledged that the New Course should “suit him well”. On a more galloping track in a race that favours patiently ridden horses with an excess of experience, I’m willing to chance this second-season novice at 16/1.

Selection

Advised 13/01/22: Hollow Games at 8/1 NON-RUNNER, losing bet

Back now: Good Time Jonny at 16/1 (various)

3.30 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup

Finished: 4thSP: 10/3

There isn’t obviously going to be a strong, championship-standard pace in this year’s Gold Cup unless somebody does something different. The tempo that Santini and Aye Right set between them, when ultimately second and third to an uninspiring Chantry House in the Cotswold Chase at this track in January, does not qualify for such a description.

Could that be why Willie Mullins has applied first-time cheekpieces to dual past Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo? He didn’t appear entirely at ease when, due to a paucity of willing or able opposition, he was forced to make his own running en route to winning his fourth New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore.

His trainer had resolved to get more racing into him this season after he was beaten in this race last year, but the late onset of winter ground deterred him. Whether the headgear does presage change in Gold Cup tactics or just the need to do something different to overturn last year’s result, the recent rain will also help.

Heavy is the head that wears the Gold Cup crown. Although Minella Indo’s season began respectably when – as a stuffy horse – he was third to a primed and well-ridden Frodon in Down Royal’s Champion Chase, his King George bid went badly wrong. Yet there are various reasons to forgive and Henry de Bromhead was pleased with his comeback second in an Irish Gold Cup crawl – a race not run to suit at a track that hasn’t in the past favoured him.

It's reasonable to argue Minella Indo comes alive at Cheltenham, having won both this and the 2019 Albert Bartlett – and he was perhaps unfortunate not to win the 2020 RSA Chase (now Brown Advisory) when getting involved in a precipitate duel with no less a rival than Allaho. New pilot Robbie Power got him jumping well last time and Jack Kennedy even better in the Gold Cup. It’s just a thought, but does he respond positively to a first-time change of pilot?

Rachael Blackmore has again sided with last year’s runner-up, the consistent A Plus Tard, who demolished the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November against lesser opposition but nonetheless whilst clocking substantial fractions. You can mitigate his short-head defeat in the Savills Chase for being positioned further back than ideal, making his move a shade too hastily and being slow away from the last than ideal. That last-named habit is an enduring one, however.

GALVIN ran him down at Leopardstown, despite being neatly boxed in by Blackmore on the home turn – in a move that committed her mount prematurely, however. He’s improving at the right time, boasts plenty of Cheltenham experience, stays stoutly and has shouldered his way into Gold Cup consideration by dint of his results. I wouldn’t swap my position on him.

Tornado Flyer struggled with the early pace of last year’s Ryanair and belted the first fence in the King George – perhaps a blessing in disguise, as that contributed to Danny Mullins wisely keeping him out of a self-defeatingly strong pace. He’s utterly unexposed at this trip but his patient run style is not usually suited to this contest.

Mercurial stablemate Asterion Forlonge was booked for second when laying down at the last at Kempton and he ran creditably on paper when third in last year’s Marsh (now Turners) Novices’ Chase – even if, in reality, he found nil after travelling strongly. His very existence adds to my enjoyment of horseracing immeasurably but I wouldn’t risk actual money on him.

Purported chief British hope Protektorat has shortened consistently in the market by dint of not running since early December – the old Al Boum Photo trick – and he’s open to further progress at this trip after winning when upped to 3m1f at Aintree last time. That was a wide-margin success in a race that imploded – runner-up Native River has since been retired – and he jumped stickily early on. He can also pull hard and might find himself in the wrong place as a result.

The rain earlier in the week will certainly help Royale Pagaille but, unfortunately for him, the course remains undulating and not flat. To end where I finished, I expect 2020 runner-up Santini to improve again on his third start for Polly Gundry prior to being retired at the end of this season. He’s exactly the sort of stamina-laiden, course-proven outsider who could grind into a place at a big price.

Selection

Advised 30/12/21: Galvin at 6/1

Ruby Walsh advised on 30/12/21: Al Boum Photo at 16/1

4.50 - Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase

Finished: 7thSP: 5/2

MOUNT IDA jumped wildly right in the early stages of last year’s Kim Muir, managing to win thanks to a miraculous ride from Jack Kennedy and her thrown-in handicap mark, so I had thought she'd struggle here. I've since learned Gordon Elliott has said she was treated for a sore back after Cheltenham and has seemed “a different mare”.

We haven't had a chance to see her left-handed again, however. Even at right-handed Fairyhouse last time out, this trait was in evidence when she collided with the left-jumping Scarlet And Dove at the second last, simultaneously diminishing that rival’s chance and enabling a rallying Elimay almost to get on terms after she had jumped less than fluently in the early stages of that Grade Three contest.

Pocket rocket Elimay was touched off by half a length in this race last year by Colreevy, her novice stablemate who was carrying a Grade One penalty. She was disadvantaged by being carried right at almost every fence on that occasion. This term, she hasn’t been at her best and Willie Mullins applied the double whammy of first-time cheekpieces and tongue-tie last time out, eliciting a win at Naas that necessitated nothing like her best form.

Without the second-last collision at Fairyhouse, I doubt Elimay would have even got in a tussle with Mount Ida and the winner was conceding her 3lb on that occasion. So, on balance and encouraged by news of her back treatment, I prefer Davy Russell’s mount here. Colreevy managed it, despite the same habit, after all! You can argue a credible case for Scarlet And Dove being overpriced on this form-line, but she is error-prone.

Elimay’s stablemate Concertista must be feared at the Festival, given she came within a short-head of making a winning hurdling debut here in 2019. She avenged that narrow defeat in the Dawn Run the following year and last term surrendered the Mares’ Hurdle to Black Tears only I the dying strides. She jumps rapidly but perhaps too low for comfort at Cheltenham, however.

British pair Vienna Court, who’s improved this season, and Zambella, who’s both consistent and more versatile these days in terms of tactics, both fall slightly short – even though the latter beat a below-par Elimay in filthy conditions at Aintree in early December. The latter was also threatening for third place at best when falling three out in this contest last year.

Selection

Back now: Mount Ida at 9/4 (various)

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An armchair ride 👀

A facile win for Keith Donoghue aboard The Passing Wife at Punchestown!

Leader d'Allier impresses at Punchestown ✅

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