After tipping Fallen Angel at 11-4 on Saturday, Alex Scott turns his attention to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe undercard at ParisLongchamp on Sunday and gives us his best bets.
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1.15 - Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere: Nighttime
This beautifully-bred son of the late Wootton Bassett has progressed with each run for Christopher Head and this was always the plan ever since he won over this course and distance in the Prix la Rochette.
The fact he has course form in similar conditions may well prove vital here. Puerto Rico has solid form, but you get the sense he has far from the best colt in Ballydoyle and one may just improve past him. Rayif has potential but has yet to encounter ground as soft as he will get here – although it is still worth noting it is not as soft as the official description.
I am not sure if this is a vintage renewal of the race and I expect Maxime Guyon to attack this race from a favourable draw.
1.50 – Prix de l’Abbaye: Frost At Dawn
William Knight’s hugely consistent and versatile filly has not got the credit she has deserved in finishing in placing five times this year (including one win) and she has gone close in both of her Group One attempts.
She is yet to run on soft ground but ran well on good to soft at Goodwood and I am confident these conditions will be no problem to her – we also know she stays 5f very strongly. Along with the fact she has a nice draw, this race may give her best opportunity yet of gaining that elusive top-level win.
She is usually smartly away, which should also help her to get a nice position, and the booking of William Buick is another positive.
3.50 – Prix de l’Opera: See The Fire
Since a 12-length demolition in Middleton Stakes at York in May, Andrew Balding’s daughter of Sea The Stars has not got her head back in front, but her efforts behind Ombudsman is amongst the best form in this field and she is another that is capable of gaining an overdue Group One victory.
The Nassau Stakes was a total non-event, giving several lengths away from a flag start, and she did well to finish third. Draw a line through that run, and her last run on soft ground saw her finish third in the Champion Stakes this time last year behind Anmaat.
With stamina likely to be key in this, she may just outstay January here, whilst Wemightakedlongway, although in receipt of weight, may lack that tactical speed for ten furlongs. With Tamfana returning off a break and also stepping up in trip, I am happy ti side with the consistent See The Fire at around 11-4.
4.25 - Prix de la Foret: Topgear
This dual course and distance scorer came alive last Autumn over this trip on soft ground and connections are likely to have had this race in mind for a long time, so I am surprised to see him as big as 12-1.
He won the Challenge Stakes by over five lengths with cut in the ground at Newmarket last October and then comfortably beat Group One winners Sajir, King Gold and Lake Forest here on his reappearance in May.
His two subsequent efforts on fast ground can be forgiven, and he looks a big player in this race back over his optimum trip for his astute trainer.
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