Saturday tips from Dave Nevison: bets at Newmarket and Ascot

Even though this filly has been raised 10lb for her impressive win when last seen, she still looks thrown in, and can give the weight away against her own sex. 

She has missed the bulk of this season, but I doubt the Gosden’s would run such a well-bred, promising type unfit for this comeback run, although it may be worth monitoring her in the market for a positive confirmation. 

This could be Morrophore’s last run in a handicap, and I believe a step up in grade is on the horizon for her.

It is no surprise these days to see Karl Burke trains the favourite in these big sales races, and I will be disappointed if Half Sovereign can’t strike here and complete the five-timer. 

I like betting on what I believe are 'good things' in these large field races, and Burke's charge is a strong fancy.

Purhcased for just 12,000gns, she has improved with each run and made all to win a strong Nursery at Doncaster last time out. Her prominent racing style will suit Newmarket even better, and it is difficult to see any of her rivals improving past her. 

There is rain forecast overnight on Friday in the Ascot area and the more rain the better for Tarkhan who seems to require soft ground to show his best form.

The six-year-old joined Jamie Osborne from Germany at the start of the season and initially struggled off tough handicap marks and on unsuitable ground until recently. 

He is now 11lb lower than when he made his stable debut in the Spring but has also been racing on softer ground recently, and his form has improved markedly. 

He was beaten just a short head at Newbury last time out, with a few of these rivals behind him, and is able to race off the same rating here. 

I like Jamie Osborne-trained contender in these big Ascot handicaps, and will be disappointed if Tarkhan doesn’t go close once again. 

Venture Capital was a beaten favourite when finishing third in this race last year but has a solid chance of making amends this time around.

It is interesting that the first and second were drawn in stalls two and one in 2024, so I am not concerned about Kevin Ryan’s sprinter being allocated stall one here. As well as good form at the track, Venture Capital is proven on soft ground and runs his best races when coming off a strong pace, which is pretty much guaranteed here. 

I pay less attention to small rating drops in sprints than races over longer distances, but Venture Capital is now a pound below his last winning mark, so is clearly well weighted.