Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: a guide to Sunday's big race

Trainer: Marco Botti. Jockey: Andrea Atzeni. Stall: 5.

Marco Botti admitted that, after Giavellotto had sprung a minor surprise to beat Kalpana in the September Stakes, they had not given the Arc much consideration due to the six-year-old’s preference for faster ground.

A defence of his Hong Kong Vase looked the priority before a dry week has tempted connections into declaring the son of Mastercraftsman this weekend. If the rain does arrive over the coming days, he would be a doubtful runner, but he does look to have a better draw than many in stall 5 and is a strong stayer over this trip.

Andrea Atzeni comes over from Hong Kong to take the ride, with regular rider Oisin Murphy having been booked a while ago for Japanese contender Byzantine Dream.

Trainer: John Joseph Murphy. Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle. Stall: 9.

White Birch has not ran over this trip in more than two years, and has not won a race for almost a year and a half.

However, he had his season cut short due to injury last year, having previously beaten Auguste Rodin by three lengths to land the Tattersalls Gold Cup, and this year, has yet to really encounter his favoured soft ground – since his debut, he is unbeaten on ground soft or worse in three starts.

Last seen finishing fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes, his draw is okay here in 9 (runners at 28/1, 33/1, 55/1 and 66/1 have all placed from this post in recent editions), but he is likely to need the rain to fall and a career best if he is to trouble the market principles.

Trainer: Jean-Claude Rouget. Jockey: Ioritz Mendizabal. Stall: 16. 

Jean Claude-Rouget has won two of the past five runnings with Sottsass and Ace Impact but this is not his best chance of a winner this year, despite this colt having won four of his five starts this campaign.

Like his most recent Arc winner, this son of Gleaneagles did his winning down at Cagnes-sur-Mer over the winter and has stepped up through the grades at Longchamp and Chantilly this year, but most recently found the Prix Foy a step too far when coming home a well-beaten sixth. This is an even bigger task and stall 16 will not help either.

Trainer: Andre Fabre. Jockey: Stephane Pasquier. Stall: 3.

Andre Fabre’s four-year-old was sent off favourite for last year’s race, only to finish fourth. He bounced back to winning ways this year in the Prix Ganay and Prix d’Ispahan before coming home last of six the Coral-Eclipse having made the running on ground faster than ideal.

He was last seen finishing second in the Prix Foy, half a length behind Byzantine Dream. His trainer has won this a record eight times, albeit only once with a four-year-old, and whilst this demands more and there are more likely winners, it is surprising to see him three times the price he was 12 months ago given he has not regressed in any way.

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Jockey: Wayne Lordan. Stall: 14.

When Los Angeles tenaciously fought off Anmaat to land the Tattersalls Gold Cup in May and was sent off the 13-8 favourite for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes the following month, it was difficult to envisage the son of Camelot being available at 33-1 for the Arc. 

Yet, after toiling at Ascot and struggling to make any real impression in the Royal Whip Stakes and the Prix Foy (fourth on both occasions), he finds himself as a big outsider here.

Third in the race 12 months’ ago, he will have no problems with the ground or indeed the trip, despite racing over a mile and a quarter in the vast majority of his races since. Stall 14 is not ideal, and connections reach for cheekpieces for the first time.

Trainer: Tomoyasu Sakaguchi. Jockey: Oisin Murphy. Stall: 15.

It is fair to say Byzantine Dream has not been held in as high regard as the fellow Japanese-trained Croix Du Nord, having trailed home last in the Japanese Derby last year, but he sprung a surprise when landing the Red Sea Turf Handicap in Riyadh in February and proved that was no fluke when finishing second in the Tenno Sho (Spring) over two miles, and then landing the Prix Foy over the Arc course and distance last month.

That most recent piece form is arguably stronger than the effort posted by Croix Du Nord, but his year-younger rival will be in receipt of 6lb weight-for-age allowance and you get the sense this dour stayer may be done for a bit of speed at the top level, although Oisin Murphy on board is a plus. The draw in stall 15 is not great – but the great Treve managed to win from this stall when scoring by five lengths in 2013.

Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard. Jockey: Alexis Pouchin. Stall: 7.

Seemingly, Francis Graffard’s third string, Quisisana has a far from disastrous draw in stall 7 and arrives on the Bois de Boulogne looking for a fifth straight win.

Despiute her prolific strike rate and the fact she arrives here off a career-best effort having defeated Survie in the Prix Jean Romanet, she may struggle to add another win to her tally in open company up two furlongs in trip. She is ground versatile.

Trainer: Andrew Balding. Jockey: Colin Keane. Stall: 10.

Another in first-time cheekpieces, Kalpana won her last three starts in style last year, culminating in winning the British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes on Champions Day.

Given her connections, her liking for soft ground and her progressive form over middle distances, she was then a general favourite for this race for the next 11 months, until she finished second at  odds of 1-2 in the September Stakes last time.

Whilst yet to get her head in front since winning at Ascot last October, she has still ran pretty consistently – finishing third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, as well as second in the Pretty Polly Stakes, and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes behind Calandagan (who would surely be favourite for this race if geldings were allowed to run, but we won’t go down that road again!)

Trainer: Christophe Ferland. Jockey: Maxime Guyon. Stall: 12.

Aventure found only Bluestocking too good in last year’s race having finished behind the same rival in the Prix Vermeille. This year, she has already gone one better by landing the fillies’ Group One over course and distance last month.

She comes into this year’s race in better form; she is three from four this year with her only defeat coming at the hands of Calandagan in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.

However, the record of horses having been beaten in the race before winning the Arc the following year is not too inspiring, and she could have done better with the draw in stall 12. Nevertheless, she is a solid player for Sir Mark Precott’s former assistant.

Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard. Jockey: Mickael Barzalona. Stall: 2.

After his first four starts, Daryz had his bubble burst when coming home last of six in the Juddmonte International on ground too fast for him.

He bounced back to form when finishing a close second to Croix Du Nord in Group Three company last time out - arguably a career best effort, and he has a decent enough draw in stall two as well.

This will be the furthest trip he has ran over – he is bred to stay it, but he will need to improve again having been beaten on his only top-level start to date.

Trainer: Jean-Claude Rouget. Jockey: Cristian Demuro. Stall: 6.

Master trainer Jean-Claude Rouget made it absolutely clear after this horse won the Grand Prix de Paris in July that all roads would lead to the Arc, so I was surprised to see the overreaction in the betting markets when this horse was beaten two and three quarter lengths in the Prix Niel in a steadily-run race in what was his prep for this.

There is no doubt he will need a career-best and this is likely to be the softest ground he has encountered, but he ought to handle it on breeding and is a strong stayer at the trip.

He has a plum draw in stall 6 (Hurricane Run, Dylan Thomas, Sea The Stars, Solemia, Enable and Alpinista have all drawn this birth) and he should come on for his last run. There are more likely winners, but he looks overpriced to me at 50-1.

Trainer: Andre Fabre. Jockey: William Buick. Stall: 8.

The winner of the Prix Niel was Cualificar, a son of Oaks winner Qualify, who rattled home to nab Bay City Roller close home on his first try at the trip. Given that was a career-best and he is an Andre Fabre-trained three-year-old peaking at the right time, he is another that looks overpriced at double-figure odds.

Seemingly ground versatile, he finished second in the Prix du Jockey Club and third in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano prior to his latest win when stepped up in trip.

William Buick rides the son of Lope De Vega from stall eight, a birth carried to victory by Workforce and Ace Impact.

Trainer: Jessica Harrington. Jockey: Shane Foley. Stall: 11.

Jessica Harrington’s three-year-old  signed off his juvenile campaign by beating Delacroix in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, but has yet to add to that win this season despite some big efforts.

He has finished third in the Irish 2000 Guineas, fifth behind Delacroix in the Coral-Eclipse, and unlucky fourth at Saratoga, and then fourth behind Aidan O’Brien’s star three-year-old in the Irish Champion Stakes last time.

This new trip asks new questions and from stall 11, it is difficult to envisage a scenario where he doesn’t get outstayed. He should, however, go on any ground.

Trainer: Takashi Saito. Jockey: Yuichi Kitamura. Stall: 17.

How great would it be to finally see Japan land the Arc? Takashi Saito’s colt has been widely regarded as the nation’s main hope this year and he enhanced his claims to finally give them their first with a narrow success in the Prix du Prince d’Orange over Daryz.

He had previously landed the Japanese Derby after finishing second in the 2000 Guineas and it looks as if he is going to get his ground at Longchamp, however, he did not get the luck of the draw when he was given stall 17.

The draw aside, the bare form of his Group Three win last time does not look good enough and my feeling is he will find a few too strong is this deeper race.

Trainer: Hiroyasu Tanaka. Jockey: Christophe-Patrice Lemaire. Stall: 4.

Alohi Alii fared best of the Japanese contingent with the draw and I have fancied him for this race since he bolted up on of Europe’s richest Group Two races last time, having advised him at 25-1 ante-post.

Given the lack of obvious front-runners in this race, I am hopeful that this son of Duramente can run into a place at big odds providing he is quick enough from the stalls.

The Prix Guillaume d’Ornano he won is almost always a strong race, and the form was boosted when Cualificar came out and won the Prix Niel. Out of an Orfevre mare, he could even improve for this step up in trip, he should certainly come on fitness wise with his last win coming off a significant break, and if he does improve, he must rate a big player.

The more it rains, the less confident I would be, but it was officially ‘soft’ last time and the 18-1 still seems big to me. Christophe Lemaire retains the ride.

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Jockey: Christophe Soumillion. Stall: 1.

A four-time Oaks winner this season, Minnie Hauk looked to outstay Whirl at Epsom when winning by a neck having previously won at Chester. She followed up in the Irish Oaks, albeit making heavier than expected weather of things when sent off at odds of 2-11, before her impressive three and a half-length defeat of Estrange (Non-runner; who possibly did not act on the good to firm ground) on the Knavesmire last time.

Given her CV this season, and the record of her age group and sex, she is a deserving favourite - nine of the past 14 runnings of the race have gone the way of a filly or mare, whilst Dalkhani, Bago, Hurricane Run, Rail Link, Zarkava, Sea The Stars, Workforce, Danedream, Treve, Golden Horn, Enable and Ace Impact all having won the race aged three in the past two decades. However, one imagines she will need a career best against the colts to win the Arc on Sunday.

Westover and In Swoop have both finished second from stall one this decade, but no winner has came from the inside birth since Soumillion guided Zarkava to win in 2007.

Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard. Jockey: Tom Marquand. Stall: 13.

Francis-Henri Graffard’s Prix de Diane winner followed up her Classic triumph with a second-placed finish behind Aventure in the Prix Vermeille on her first try over a mile and a half – a race that proved the best trial last year providing the same 1-2 for the Arc.

She will need a career best here, but may still have improvement in the locker and her trainer is having a phenomenal year in Group Ones, with ten victories at that level and counting. Stall 13 makes life trickier but she is consistent and should give another good account of herself.

Given the draw and the lack of obvious pace, I have no reason to desert my 25-1 ante-post selection ALOHI ALII. Minnie Hauk is a worthy favourite, but I want to try and take her on from stall one against the colts, and French three-year-olds Cualificar and Leffard look overpriced and are worth each-way consideration. They can outrun their odds having been targeted as this for some time.

Win selection: Alohi Alii.

Reverse tricast: Alohi Alii, Cualificar, Leffard.