John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase: five key questions and a tip

Willie Mullins has been treading carefully in November, no doubt on account of the dryish ground, and has averaged just a runner a day this month. He had as many as 101 runners in November 2019, so expect a deluge of runners from now on - starting in a contest where he often has multiple contenders.

Those to have run have illustrated the Closutton machine is rolling along nicely, with seven of the yard’s 21 runners winning this month. There have been a couple of odds-on chances turned over in the same period, but nothing that would ring any alarm bells. 

Henry De Bromhead has his team well forward – 20 winners from 75 runners since September and profitable for punters to follow blind – but Gavin Cromwell is having a lean time, at least by his usual standards. He’s had only three winners from 47 runners this month, and only a dozen from 145 since the start of September. 

Martin Brassil has had only one winner since June but most of his 29 runners since then have been outsiders, so his stable form is difficult to get a handle on. Likewise, Jimmy Mangan, who has only a small team of horses. He’s had only 11 runners (all beaten) since Spillane’s Tower scooped Grade One glory at Punchestown at the end of April. 

Mullins has made no secret of the fact that he is a big fan of the race now taking place more than a month before Christmas, so there is a perfect gap between here and the busy festive programme. And so, like last year, he runs five, although that is two fewer than his seven in 2021.

In between, when the race was run on December 19, he relied solely on Galopin Des Champs. He had four runners in the 2019 and 2020 editions. 

Blue Lord, Fact To File, Galopin Des Champs, Grangeclare West and Minella Cocooner were all declared on Friday morning. It is quite a squad.

An early clash between Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File - joint favourites for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March - will surprise some, but the former has used this race as a launch pad for his past two campaigns and Mullins loves sticking to established blueprints. 

And he’s already said Sunday’s race represents a natural starting point for Fact To File, even though JP McManus initially had four other possibles in the race . . . 

My colleague, Lydia Hislop, touched on the McManus Massive in her Road To Cheltenham column last week. He has trimmed his team of five to three, but it again illustrates the strength in depth he has among the chasing ranks. 

Capodanno and Limerick Lace are surplus to requirements, but that still leaves McManus to be represented by Fact To File, Spillane’s Tower and Inothewayurthinkin. All were Grade One novice winners  in the spring.

Fact To File is the shortest price of the trio and looks his No 1, having won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the main expense of Monty’s Star. Before that, he had won at the Dublin Racing Festival, when he had the measure of Gaelic Warrior even before that runner departed. For a horse that stays well, he's not short of pace. 

“This is the plan, he had a great novice season last season,” Frank Berry, racing manager to owner JP McManus, said on Monday. “He will be back on Sunday and he’s against the big boys. It is a bit of a task for his first run, but we’re really happy with him, Willie’s happy with him, he’s in good form and we’re hoping for a good run.” 

Spillane’s Tower’s top level success, at Punchestown, was also gained at the main expense of Monty’s Star, and the fact that he’s 3/3 at the track, over distances ranging between 2m and 3m1f, means he must enter calculations. 

A meeting between the siblings, Inothewayurthinkin and Limerick Lace, would have added extra spice, but we can't have it all. The former upped his game when stepped up in distance in the spring but the overall form of the Cromwell yard is a niggle. 

JJ Slevin has ridden Fastorslow in his past eight races and will be cursing the broken foot that he suffered when unseated from a 150-1 chance at Gowran Park on October 4. He’s not expected to return until next month. 

Connections would not have been short of suitors for this top-class chaser but they looked beyond the professional ranks and have opted for crack amateur Derek O’Connor, who has ridden four winners for them, from 18 rides, in the past. It’s a refreshing choice. 

I’d have no qualms about O’Connor’s credentials, for all that he hasn’t ridden a winner over hurdles or fences since May 13. You can balance that by noting he hasn’t suffered an unseat or a fall on a horse (excluding one occasion he was brought down) since the second week in January! 

His quiet, unhurried style is likely to suit a horse who is a slick jumper and who has won at Punchestown on his past three visits, beating Galopin Des Champs on each occasion, including in the John Durkan 12 months ago. 

Brassil said of Fastorslow this week: “He seems very well, everything has gone smoothly with him so far so he’s more or less in the same place as last year heading for the John Durkan. His first run of the season you’d expect him to improve after it so that’s where he is. 

“There’s a good rivalry going (with Galopin Des Champs). You look at all those good horses and there isn’t a huge amount between them, depending how they turn up on the day or how the tactics of the race can go.” He added: “The rain won’t do him any harm, but he’s very versatile and can go on anything from yielding to soft to heavy.” 

The market is dominated by Fact To File (2-1), Fastorslow (9-4), Galopin Des Champs (7-2) and Spillanes Tower (6-1). All are headline acts and we are in for an absolute humdinger. 

Fastorslow, pictured above, would get my vote, not least because he seems in his element at Punchestown and was a narrow but decisive winner on his return in last year’s John Durkan. 

He’s a brilliant jumper, as the RaceiQ data confirms. Typically, he gave his rivals a lesson in that department when winning the Punchestown Gold Cup on his latest start, gaining 14.24 lengths in the air. None of the opposition managed more than 4.74 lengths. 

And when he won the John Durkan last year, he again jumped best – gaining 9.96 lengths. He has been far superior to Galopin Des Champs in getting from A to B every time they have met at Punchestown.