Irish Derby: runner-by-runner guide and tip

Ten runners have been declared for this year’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby on Sunday, with 16-time winner Aidan O’Brien responsible for exactly half the field, headed by Epsom hero Lambourn, who is a best-priced 10-11 to make it a Classic double.

Charlie Johnston's Derby second Lazy Griff and Joseph O’Brien's Derby third Tennessee Stud are also both set line up in a rematch of three weeks ago.

Furthermore, such is Coolmore’s stranglehold on middle-distance breeding that eight of the ten runners are by Coolmore stallions, four are by Wootton Bassett, three are by Camelot and one (the favourite) is by Australia.

Here is a runner-by-runner guide to each contender in the €1.25m contest.

Best odds: 7-1

Jessica Harrington’s son of Wootton Bassett beat Derby favourite Delacroix twice last year, firstly when breaking his maiden tag at the second attempt, and then when landing the Group Two Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown.

He then finished sixth in the 2000 Guineas on his next start off the back of a 231-day break, and justified favouritism when winning in Listed company over 1m1f three weeks ago.

He would be stepping up three furlongs in trip at the Curragh and his pedigree is a real mixture of speed and stamina, but being out of a strong-staying Galileo mare certainly gives him a shout of staying 1m4f and he does shapes as if he should improve for further.

Best odds: 10-11

As Andy Stephens highlighted earlier this week in his Racing TV column, 16 Derby winners have lined up at The Curragh since 1988 and 11 have pulled off the double, whilst eight Aidan O’Brien-trained Derby winners have lined up, with five having won.

That may sound promising enough, but Lambourn's rating of 120 is the same as Epsom winners Ruler Of The World and Wings Of Eagles, who both got beaten in the Irish Derby. He does not have a lofty rating by any means yet.

Nevertheless, stamina is clearly this colt’s main asset and he is likely to be ridden prominently again on Sunday, a tactic that is often successful in the race, and he was a comfortable winner at Epsom. It may just be that he is still improving and the best is yet to come.

Best odds: 14-1

Connections mooted the Grand Prix de Paris on July 13 as this colt’s likely target after he finished second in the Derby but have chosen to head to the Curragh for another Classic in search of going one place better than at Epsom.

Sent off at 50-1 two and a half weeks ago, there appeared to be no fluke about his finishing position, having stayed on well ahead of Tennessee Stud and having previously finished second behind Lambourn again in the Chester Vase.

We know he stays and his form is good enough to see him getting some more place money, but it is difficult to make a case for him getting the better of Lambourn at the third attempt.

Best odds: 8-1

A stylish winner of the Dante on just his second start, he arrived at Epsom unbeaten and was sent off a 4-1 chance to make it three out of three, but only beat one horse home in Dante runner-up Damysus.

There were several fancied horses that did not give their running on the Downs and his trainer did not put his defeat down to the trip.

Beckett won the Irish Derby with Westover three years ago and is on record as saying this horse has more speed than his Juddmonte Classic hero.

If Pride Of Arras can put his Derby run behind him and return to something like we saw at York, then he could be a danger on Sunday, but it would require a leap of faith to back him with any confidence and, at this stage, the Dante form does not look strong by the race’s high standards.

Best odds: 16-1  

A non-runner in last week’s ‘Ascot Derby’ – the King Edward VII Stakes, he seems likely to form part of Ballydoyle’s assault on this race and arrives at the Curragh off the back of a narrow victory in Lingfield Derby Trial over stablemate Stay True.

That form alone is not good enough, but he is another one with untapped potential and like many by his top sire Camelot. he may be improving with racing and experience.

Best odds: 33-1

Second to the progressive and well-handicapped Merchant in the King George V Stakes last Thursday, that was a career best performance, but  was off a mark of just 92 and another big step up will be needed on his first start in Stakes company.

Best odds: 100-1

It would be another quick turnaround should this son of Camelot run this weekend after finishing fourth in the Queen’s Vase over 1m6f at Ascot last Wednesday and it is hard to make a case for him on that run, or indeed his fourth in Group Three company previously. 

He was only beaten a length and a quarter at the Royal meeting, a career best effort, and his future looks to lie over further than this.

Best odds: 100-1

Seemingly Ralph Beckett’s second string in the race, he finished second, four lengths behind stablemate Amiloc in the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood on his previous start a month ago. That form looked okay at the time, but it looks very good now after Amiloc beat the talented Zahrann to win the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last week.

He still needs to find plenty more however, having yet to score at Group or Listed level, but should have no problems getting the trip and does at least look progressive. He is one of the outsiders that does look a touch overpriced.

Best odds: 4-1

An eyecatcher for many in the Derby when staying on from the rear to grab third in a race where the first two were prominent throughout, we therefore know he will have no problems staying this trip.

He is also  a Group One winner already, albeit having only beaten two runners in last year’s Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Interestingly, three of the past four renewals of the Irish Derby have been won by the horse who finished third at Epsom.

He looks like the main danger to the favourite and has a big chance of redemption if Lambourn is not allowed too much rope.

Best odds: 50-1

Has plenty of work to do with the Derby winner after his sixth in the Chester Vase but he is better than that showing and followed up his effort on the Roodee by winning the Group Three Gallinule Stakes over 1m2f at Curragh, albeit in the stewards’ room.

That was a career best, but much more is needed here and appears very much down the Ballydoyle pecking order.

There has been plenty of people saying this a weak renewal of the race, and time will tell, but I am inclined to think it is stronger than it first appears - the first three from the Derby are all here, plus other trial winners.

At the prices, it is TENNESSEE STUD who makes most appeal at 4-1. RaceiQ data tells us he recorded the second-fastest final three furlongs in the Derby and that he recorded the highest average and maximum stride length of the entire field. He looks ready made for this test, which may not unfold in exactly the same way as at Epsom.

Lambourn is a horse I like a lot and I fancy him to be bang there, staying on well under Ryan Moore, and whilst he needs to improve plenty, I think SIR DINADAN is overpriced having ran well in defeat twice this season in good races. I would not be surprised should he take a step forward over this trip for his in-form trainer and reward each-way backers at big odds. He was 100-1 at the five-day stage and can still be backed at 66-1.

1 Tennessee Stud.  2 Lambourn.  3 Sir Dinadan.