Irish Champions Weekend: a dozen top stats and facts for day one

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” Mark Twain had a point, of course, as did Benjamin Disraeli when he observed “There are three types of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

We all love a good fact/stat – the lines get blurred here - but that doesn’t mean we should blindly follow the path they try and lead us down. Rules are there to be broken!

Here are a dozen facts and stats to keep in mind for day one of the Longines Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown on Saturday, starting with the showpiece.

1. A quick flick down the roll of honour this century reveals five odds-on winners and perhaps an assumption that short-priced market leaders fare well. But don’t be deceived. In the same period, eight odds-on favourites have been beaten: Galileo (2001), Hawk Wing (2002), Doyen (2004), Rip Van Winkle (2010), Al Kazeem (2013), Australia (2014), Churchill (2017) and Ghaiyyath (2020). French ace Vadeni is a general 5-4 for Saturday’s renewal.

2. John Gosden has had four runners in the race. His initial scout, Nathaniel, was second in 2012. Since then, he has sent over The Fugue (2013), Golden Horn (2015) and Roaring Lion (2018) and each has won. This time, he relies on Mishriff, who has already won big prizes in England, France, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.

3. Pay careful to attention to the draw. Those berthed low are nearest the rail but, unless they are swiftly into stride, can end up in a jam. By contrast, those wider often get a clearer passage. It’s reflected by the stats. Since 2013, there have been nine renewals featuring 155 runners with none of the 72 drawn between 1-8 being successful. Runners drawn 9 or higher have won every time. In addition, the higher numbers have had 19 more contenders in the next three places, as opposed to those drawn low boasting eight places.

4. There have been 26 British-trained runners in the nine renewals since 2013 and they have won four times, with four more of their party finishing second. Richard Fahey-trained runners, in particular, demand a second look as he has a fine record in the race, despite several of his challengers being drawn low (see above). His Withernsea was placed three successive years (including from stall one) and the trainer also struck with Zap, at 20-1, a couple of years later. His runner in 2014 was also running well when badly hampered (stall four), while his challenger in 2020 (stall one) was beaten only two lengths. Fahey has declared Master Zoffany on this occasion but he's first reserve. I'm A Gambler (one), Rhoscolyn (ten) and Safe Voyage (19) will also fly the flag for the Brits.

5. The exciting Homeless Songs is officially rated at least 4lb superior to all her rivals in the Coolmore America 'Justify' Matron Stakes. However, it has been seven years since the runner with the highest rating has obliged, with high-profile losers during this time including Winter (Evens), Alpha Centauri (30-100), Laurens (Evens) and Mother Earth (6-5).

6. Three-year-olds have won the past seven renewals of the Coolmore America 'Justify' Matron Stakes but that’s a little misleading as only 17 older horses have taken part, with none in the 2018 running. Taking a broader look, in the ten most recent races where the age groups have clashed, the score stands at 6-4 to the Classic generation. But that’s perhaps as it should be, as they’ve had 51 runners, whereas there have been only 35 older contenders. Saffron Beach, Pearls Galore and Lights On fly the flag for the older horses on this occasion.

7. Aidan O’Brien has won six of the ten renewals, enjoying a 1-2-3 in 2017. In the other four contests, he’s fielded the runner-up on three occasions, plus the third (his worst return) in 2016. He tends to run Derby types in this race, with Australia, his 2013 victor, subsequently winning at Epsom. Two of his other runners in the race, Battle Of Marengo and Broome, did not win but went on to each finish a close fourth in the Derby. And Douglas Macarthur, another who was defeated, also made a bold bid from the front at Epsom in 2017. On Saturday, O’Brien runs Auguste Rodin and his course and distance winner Tower Of London this time. The latter is from the penultimate crop of Galileo, who was O'Brien's first Derby winner in 2001.

8. This has been a fabulous race for British-trained challengers. Since 2000, 21 British runners have contested 13 renewals. They have won eight plus had two runners-up, enjoying a 1-2-3 in 2015. If you had blindly backed every British runner this century to a £1 stake, you would be showing a profit of almost £25. The soft ground loving Jadoomi, trained by Simon and Ed Crisford, makes the journey this time after a fluent success at Goodwood on his latest start.

9. As in the earlier 7f handicap, a high draw is usually an advantage in this 1m 4f finale. In the past ten renewals, seven of the winners have been drawn 13 or higher. Last year, the first three home were drawn 17-26-16. In 2019, it was 18-15-16. And in 2018, 14-17-16. You get the picture. Thirty-seven three-year-olds have been among the 173 runners since 2012. A couple have won, with two others runner-up.

10. Willie Mullins has had 24 runners in the ten renewals, with Ruby Walsh riding one of his contenders (unplaced) in 2017. Three have won, at 5/1, 14/1 and 10/1, and two have been second. He had a 1-2 for Rich Ricci in 2018. However, overall, he has had a mixed time as he’s fielded the favourite or joint-favourite four times and all have been beaten, albeit two went down narrowly. His sole candidate this time is Baby Zeus, who has run only twice this year and was a never-nearer third at the Galway Festival last time. The five-year-old will run off a mark of 91, but no winner since 2014 has been rated that low. Six different Irish jockeys have ridden Baby Zeus but Mullins has opted for Tom Marquand, who has never previously ridden at Leopardstown.

11. Formerly the Kilternan Stakes, this race was added to Irish Champions Weekend in 2014 and increased in distance from 1m 2f to 1m 4f. Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen combined to take the first four runnings of the updated version, with Aidan O’Brien – and three different jockeys – taking the next trio. In total, O’Brien has won the race (both forms) a record nine times going back to 2004. All bar one of his victors have been a three-year-old and seven have been favourite, or joint-favourite. His runners this time are all three-year-olds and include Bluegrass, who was left in the St Leger at the five-day stage. Incredibly, since 2001, O’Brien and Weld have combined to win the race on 16 occasions. Weld runs Duke De Sessa this time. Last year’s winner, Camorra (18/1), was only the second this century to win at a double-figure price. Sixteen of the past 21 winners have been 7-2 or shorter.

12. Don’t be too hard on yourself if you cannot recall the subsequent exploits of the four winners of this race. Two never ran again, while another raced only once more (beaten) and did not return as a three-year-old. Last year’s winner has since run five times but not added to his tally.