Irish Champions Festival: what the RaceiQ data told us about day two

I’d imagine all nine runners who contested a savagely run edition will sleep well tonight. 

The early gallop was relentless, and don’t be deceived by the fact that Al Riffa, trained by Joseph O’Brien and ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle, glided  to the front after being held up in rear. 

It looked effortless, but it wasn't. Like all the runners, he was slow in the final half mile, but just a lot less slow than the others! 

All nine horses recorded “very fast” furlongs in two, three and four, while plenty of the next were six also “fast”. 

Most unusually for a staying contest, all bar one horse recorded their fastest furlong in either the second or third furlong. This is what sprinters routinely do, not those with 14 furlongs ahead of them. 

Inevitably, the whole field were all “very slow” over the final half-mile, with the finish resembling the end of a staying handicap chase. 

Al Riffa gave the impression he was quickening clear but was merely plodding on much the best. His FSP was 101.48%, with none of the others managing anything better than 98.75%. 

He went through the final half-mile 1.33sec quicker than the progressive runner-up, Amiloc, and the rest simply did not count. 

Moving up in trip has certainly shone a new light on him, for all that Illinois was in trouble a long way from home and clearly nowhere near his best. 

“It was gruelling” said Joseph O’Brien. And it was. 

A good little ‘un beat a good big ‘un, with the smallest horse in the race, Zavateri, edging out the imposing Gstaad in a pulsating finish. 

Like the Moyglare winner, Zavateri sat last in the early stages before creeping forwards on the outside in clear water under Charlie Bishop. 

Gstaad’s penultimate furlong of 11.2sec, the quickest of the race, was 0.17sec quicker than Zavateri and looked to have sealed the deal, but the latter responded by being 0.16sec faster in the final furlong and grabbed the spoils on the bob. 

The pair came close together and the result was only confirmed after a stewards’ enquiry. 

Italy was a creditable third, especially given that he was too keen in the early stages. 

This was some result for Eve Johnson Houghton and Bishop, with the former letting out a scream of delight when the result was confirmed. It was only her second Group One success. 

Zavateri has had a great year and is quoted at around 20-1 for the 2000 Guineas, but he does look a horse for the here and now. 

By contrast, there could still be more to come from Gstaad, for all that the emphatic Coventry winner was also edged out in the Prix Morny (by Venetian Sun). He got the extra furlong fine here. 

Saba Desert was the big disappointment, with his final four furlongs all being “slow” or “very slow”. The Superlative winner is surely better than he showed here. 

Precise was Aidan O’Brien’s third string to judge by the morning betting but she’s thrived in the past month and was a decisive winner. 

It was her stablemates, Composing and Beautify, who set the pace, and coming down to the final furlong the pair looked to have the race to themselves. 

But then Ronan Whelan set Precise alight on the outside of them, and she surged to the front courtesy of a 12.25sec final furlong. That was at least 0.28sec quicker than anything else in the field. 

Whelan had also pounced late in the closing stages when landing the Moylglare aboard Skitter Scatter in 2018, although he admitted afterwards that a sluggish start on this occasion had him a little anxious. 

Precise was the slowest to reach 20mph (3.23sec) and last after the first furlong. However, she settled well and quickened up smartly to follow up her victory in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood. 

The overall pace, into a headwind, was nothing special, with the finishing speed percentages of all bar the hard-pulling Suzie Songs being at least 105.55%. 

Beautify looked the most likely winner heading to the final furlong as she got upsides Composing but she simply had no answer to Precise’s finishing kick. This was her first run for 11 weeks and augurs well for the weeks ahead. 

Composing had the run of things but faded, with no obvious excuses. O’Brien felt she would have done better with a lead, but she had made the running when winning previously, in times that were ordinary. 

Venetian Sun’s unbeaten record was punctured. She saw out the trip well enough but was not ideally positioned in the run – behind two O’Brien horses and kept in by another (the winner) – for all that you could not call her unlucky. 

It’s been a case of who is in front when music stops in the top sprints this summer. 

On this occasion, it was Arizona Blaze who took the gold medal, having finished eleventh in the Nunthorpe last month. Asfoora, who won the Nunthorpe, was seventh here. It’s been that kind of the year with the pace aces. 

Arizona Blaze was soon near the head of affairs in a race where there was no hanging around. The Time Index was 7 out of 10, when the meeting average was 5. 

The winner went fast for the first 60 per cent of the race before understandably getting a bit weary, but he had enough in reserve to hang on. 

Bucanero Fuerte, running in the same colours, was also up with the pace, making much of the running and finishing a highly creditable third. 

Splitting them was Nighteyes, who zoomed from 13th to second in the final two furlongs. David O’Meara’s filly clocked 10.88sec in the penultimate furlong and 12.12 sec in the final one. 

She was easily fastest in the closing stages, with her FSP being almost 103%. Only three horses in the race recorded an FSP of 100% or more. 

Effective on softer ground, she will be one to consider for the Prix de l’Abbaye. 

The first three home were drawn 4,5 and 2, so those drawn high can be marked up. 

Of the rest, Night Raider again showed bundles of pace before a final furlong of 12.86sec saw him drift back to fifth. He had been fourth in the Nunthorpe and still gives the impression that a big 5f race can come his way granted an easy track and quicker ground.