Andy Stephens studies the positives and negatives among those in the mix for the Tattersalls-sponsored Classic at The Curragh on Saturday. Watch what happens live on Racing TV!
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1 COMANCHE BRAVE
Official rating: 107. Group One form: --. Odds: 40-1.
Positives: Progressed well enough in the second half of last season and looked a much-improved performer when splitting Henri Matisse and Arizona Blue in Leopardstown’s 2000 Guineas Trial at the end of March. He looked like winning that day only for the winner to wear him down late on. The form has a glow with Henri Matisse going on to land the French 2000 Guineas and Arizona Blue also scooping a pattern prize in France. Bred to be suited by the step up to a mile, being by Wootton Basset out of a dam (Ishvana) who was runner-up in the Irish 1000 Guineas in 2012.
Negatives: His juvenile form did not make him stand out from the crowd and it remains to be seen if that comeback run was something of a flash in the pan (the winning time was nothing special). Has shown plenty of speed and a stiff mile could expose stamina limitations.
Verdict: The form of his comeback run looks strong but doubts remain.
2 COSMIC YEAR
Official rating: 110. Group One form: --. Odds: 9-2.
Positives: Regally bred and unbeaten in three starts, flashing plenty of class in his wins over 7f at Sandown, Kempton and Newmarket. Took the jump to Listed class in his stride last time and it feels like we are still scratching the surface with him, with the step up to a mile expected to suit. Skipping the Guineas at Newmarket means he’s had more time to find his feet at the top table.
Negatives: He’s in deeper waters here and is going to have to improve a chunk to beat this company. There’s some quirkiness in his family and he showed an awkward head carriage and hung right at Headquarters last time, for all he may still also be a bit immature. Connections felt Field Of Gold was their No 1 candidate for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.
Verdict: He’s still a work in progress but there is no disputing he’s an exciting colt.
3 CURRAWOOD
Official rating: 102. Group One form: --. Odds: 25-1.
Positives: Showed a fair level of ability as a juvenile (chased home The Lion In Winter on one occasion) when his trainer felt he was immature. Began this season with wins at Dundalk and Cork, and far from disgraced when chasing home Officer in a Listed race at The Curragh last time. That horse looks the No 1 hope of Aidan O’Brien on Saturday. May be more ready for this than others and placed in each of his three races at The Curragh.
Negatives: He was put in his place by Officer here last time and there’s no reason to believe he can turn the tables. And, even if he does, there is the strong British challenge to overcome plus other candidates among the home team.
Verdict: Has made a good start to the season but looks up against it.
4 EXPANDED
Official rating: 117. Group One form: 29. Odds: 14-1.
Positives: Won a maiden on his debut at The Curragh in early October and just a week later ran a screamer to split Shadow Of Truth and Ancient Truth in the Dewhurst. That suggested he was a colt of immense promise, and he went off at just 5-1 for the 2000 Guineas, but was unable to make much impact and trailed home ninth. He’s surely better than that run at Headquarters suggests (it could be he resented the fast ground) and he would certainly not be the first from his yard to bounce with a bang in a Classic after an underwhelming effort.
Negatives: You need to take a big leap of faith after his tame comeback effort in the 2000 Guineas, when he finished about nine lengths behind Field Of Gold, who he meets again. Ryan Moore seems much more likely to partner Officer.
Verdict: Needs to recapture the form he showed when runner-up in the Dewhurst, but don’t rule that out.
5 FIELD OF GOLD
Official rating: 120. Group One form: 42. Odds: 8-11 fav.
Positives: Sets a high standard after finishing half a length second to Ruling Court in the 2000 Guineas, having previously been an emphatic winner of the Craven Stakes. Seeks to emulate his sire, Kingman, who was a runaway winner of this race in 2014 after also finishing second at Newmarket. You can argue he might have gone even closer at Headquarters with a different ride (his jockey that day is replaced by a multiple Irish champion here) and his connections have clearly been happy with his subsequent wellbeing. A straight mile and good ground clearly serve him well.
Negatives: His rider came in for criticism after the 2000 Guineas but the colt did hit a bit of a flat patch heading into the Dip (didn’t handle it well) and that ultimately cost him. More significant, this will be his third big-race assignment in little more than a month.
Verdict: Obvious claims provided his latest effort on quick ground has not left a mark.
6 HOTAZHELL
Official rating: 117. Group One form: 1. Odds: 9-1.
Positives: Developed into one of last year’s top two-year-olds, signing off with victories in the Beresford Stakes, at The Curragh, and Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, edging out leading Derby hope Delacroix in the latter. Before that, he had been runner-up to Henri Matisse (subsequent French 2000 Guineas winner). His form at The Curragh reads 121 and he was tenacious at Town Moor. There’s no reason to suspect he will not train on.
Negatives: This is Plan B as he had been an intended runner in the French 2000 Guineas, only to be withdrawn because ground conditions were deemed too quick for him. Others are entitled to be sharper, having already been in action this term, and the form of his stable (only four winners from 106 runners since the start of last month) must be a niggle.
Verdict: Big ask to win this first time out with his yard having made a quiet start to the campaign.
7 OFFICER
Official rating: 108. Group One form: --. Odds: 5-1.
Positives: Aidan O’Brien is seeking a 13th victory in the race and regards him as his principal hope. He’s bred for the job – being by Dubawi (won this in 2005) out of Hydrangea (third in Irish 1000 Guineas in 2017) – and his three runs have all been here at The Curragh. There was plenty to like about the way he mastered Currawood in the Tetrarch Stakes here last time, a Listed race that Paddington took en route to glory in this two years ago. His pedigree points to the step up to a mile being no problem and he’s open to plenty more improvement.
Negatives: His bare form suggests he is going to have to take things to another level and, while his breeding points to a mile being no problem he was hardly powering away at the finish over 7f last time. Did not come under consideration for the Guineas at Newmarket and there seems an element of him having to be pushed up the Ballydoyle pecking order because of setbacks or disappointments among his stablemates.
Verdict: Scored in slick style last time and his trainer knows full well what is required but others have stronger credentials.
8 RASHABAR
Official rating: 113. Group One form: 22. Odds: 20-1.
Positives: Showed his 80-1 win in the Coventry was no fluke when subsequently runner-up in two Group One contests in France. Chased home Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny and was then touched off by Camille Pissarro in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, with Field Of Gold and Henri Matisse among the support cast. That is clearly strong form, and he made an encouraging return behind Jonquil in the Greenham (since gone close in the French 2000 Guineas), especially given he was almost certainly short of his peak (easy to back) and not much went right for him in the run. Unproven over a mile but there is stamina on the dam’s side of his breeding.
Negatives: One win from six starts is rare for a prospective Irish Guineas winner, and he’s more exposed than most. Must prove he’s got the stamina to be as effective over a mile and the stable (one winner from 33 runners since March) is not exactly firing on all cylinders (last winner in Ireland back in 2004).
Verdict: His form reads well enough but not sure there is much more to come, with the trip also a question mark.
9 SCORTHY CHAMP
Official rating: 115. Group One form: 17. Odds: 14-1.
Positives: Seemed suited by the emphasis being on stamina when upstaging Henri Matisse in the National Stakes at The Curragh in mid-September and, perhaps naturally, that Group One race has yielded many winners of this over the years. Looked like he would stay a mile standing on his head that day and trainer’s big-race runners always command a second look.
Negatives: Took advantage of Henri Matisse throwing things away in the National Stakes, so dangerous to take a literal view of the form. Disappointed in the 2000 Guineas on his return when he didn’t get home after being keen early on. Perhaps the Mehmas colt does not want a mile after all.
Verdict: One of only two Group One winners in the line-up but must put Newmarket behind him.
10 SERENGETI
Official rating: 94. Group One form: 0. Odds: 100-1.
Positives: Pacemakers have, occasionally, stunned everyone by making all at the highest level.
Negatives: He’s clearly down the Ballydoyle pecking order and yet to prove he’s worthy of a rating in the 90s. Helped force a strong pace for his stablemates in the French 2000 Guineas but faded to finish last.
Verdict: Will surely merely ensure this is not run at a dawdle.
11 TRINITY COLLEGE
Official rating: 105. Group One form: --. Odds: 66-1.
Positives: Plenty of experience, making the frame in Group races at The Curragh and Leopardstown in the autumn. Made all at Naas on his return and would surely have won the Derby Trial at Epsom last time but for hanging left and looking uncomfortable on the track. Return to this galloping track will suit.
Negatives: He’s had his limitations exposed and dropping back to a mile is unlikely to help a horse who looks more of a middle-distance performer. Is entered in a Group Three over ten furlongs on Friday and that hints he may not even turn up here.
Verdict: Will be making up the numbers if he shows up.
12 WINDLORD
Official rating: 105. Group One form: --. Odds: 40-1.
Positives: Looks like getting the green light even though his breeder-owners have two excellent candidates in Field Of Gold and Cosmic Year. Confirmed earlier promise when scoring over a mile at York in September and kept on when third to Hotazhell in the Beresford Stakes next time. Encouraging return when splitting Swagman and Damysus in the Classic Trial at Sandown, especially as he didn’t help himself by hanging left. Interesting he is now reverting to a mile.
Negatives: The way he hung at Sandown is a niggle and he didn’t look a non-stayer that day, so it’s a bit of a puzzle that he is dropping back in trip. Needs to turn the tables on Hotazhell and he looks the third string of his owners.
Verdict: Surprise if he emulates his sire, Dubawi, who landed this 20 years ago.
VERDICT
To follow.
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