How To Bet £20 on Saturday: this 50-1 chance can outstay rivals

Storm Bert is set to pound Britain on Saturday and the one certainty is that the going at Haydock is going to ease. This will be the track’s first Jumps fixture of the season, though, and it’s not as if the predicted heavy rain is going to be falling onto a surface already been opened up, so conditions may not be as bad as many fear.

Regardless of what the ground is like, the one-horse begging to be backed on the card is surely Twig, quoted at 50-1 almost across the board for the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle.

I can’t fathom why he’s such an outlandish price because he ran a cracking race on his return on his return in the Grade Two West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby, splitting higher-rated rivals despite the muddling tempo not bringing his abundant stamina into play. In addition, conditional jockey Beau Morgan, his regular rider, was unable to claim his 5lb allowance that day because of the race’s prestige.

In the circumstances, his 3lb rise in the ratings to 143 looks lenient, and it’s worth remembering he ran a stormer off that mark in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March when dividing Chianti Classico (a good winner on his return at Ascot) and Meetinbgofthewaters, who subsequently ran a cracker in the Grand National. The trio pulled 16 lengths clear of the rest in an attritional renewal where only eight finished.

Often, decent chasers don’t translate their level of form to hurdles, and vice versa, but Twig, whose long-term objective this season is the Grand National, seems equally at home over small and large obstacles. He’s only once finished outside the first two in seven races over hurdles and still has unfinished business in this sphere.

Ben Pauling, his trainer, had been considering running him in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury but has clearly decided that if he was worth his place in that graded race, then why not run here, instead, in a £100,000 handicap off a potentially favourable mark. He’s also equipping him with first-time cheekpieces, which may also add an edge.

I’m also going to have a small saver on One Big Bang, an improver since joining James Owen in the spring who also looks ahead of the handicapper. With 7lb claimer Calum Hogan in the saddle, he’s going to be getting weight from all the opposition. The early 10-1 has been snapped up, but the 8-1 quoted by. Wiliam Hill is still fair, especially as they are among the firms offering five places for each-way players.

Ahoy Senor was my pick for the Betfair Chase earlier this week and, with all the big players standing their ground, it means we can now get a general 6-1 about him getting back to winning ways.

He couldn’t have run a better trial for Britain’s first Grade One race of the season when a considerately handled close third in the Old Roan Chase, off a mark of 169, and I’d have him favourite over Grey Dawning, who has been off almost eight months and would be 12lb better off with him if this were a handicap.

Nigel Twiston-Davies used to make a habit of winning the Betfair Chase with Bristol De Mai but is not represented in this year’s edition. However, he does have bright prospects of striking on the supporting card via Josh The Boss in the Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle.

He was a taking winner of the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on his return when having only his second start in a handicap. The RaceiQ data reveals he gained almost eight lengths over the opposition that day with is fluent leaping – no mean achievement in a hot 17-runner affair – and the form has a glow with six of those left in his wake subsequently winning, including Doyen Quest, at Cheltenham, and Take No Chances, in a Listed event at Wetherby. 

Josh The Boss has a 7lb rise to contend with, but he’s earned that hike and, aged just 5, there could still be plenty more improvement to come. He looks overpriced at 15-2 with William Hill, for all that Beat The Bat and Steel Ally warrant plenty of respect.

My other fancy on the card is General Medrano, who returns from a seven-month absence in the Bet At Your Best With Betfair Handicap Chase.

This time last year he ran a cracker to split Brave Kingdom (now rated 10lb higher) and Martator (now 21lb higher) when seeking to complete a hat-trick of wins at Plumpton, but the rest of his campaign did not quite go to plan and consequently he finds himself 5lb lower in the ratings.

He was very good fresh last season, has had his wind tinkered with over the summer and his trainer, Emma Lavelle, has had three winners from five runners in the past week.

My main fancy at Ascot is Inis Oirr in the 1st Class Logistics Berkshire National Handicap Chase over more than 3m 5f.

Lucinda Russell’s seven-year-old showed he was all about stamina when a runaway winner of the Edinburgh National over almost 4m last term and has shaped well in his two races this term, both over an inadequate 3m.

Those outings will mean he will lack nothing in fitness and the handicapper has eased him 3lb in the ratings, which is something of a bonus. And with the stable’s No 1 jockey Derek Fox aboard Ahoy Senor at Haydock, 5lb claimer Alan Doyle will further ease his burden.

Russell has a strike-rate of 27 per cent with her Jump horses this month (nine winners from 33 runners) and I also like the fact that Inis Oirr usually makes the running because it’s rare for chases at Ascot to be won by horses trying to pounce from too far off the gallop. In addition, Inis Oirr has shown a clear preference for right-hand tracks, so I imagine this race has been on his agenda a little while as options for him are limited.

A dazzling card at Punchestown features Ballyburn making his chasing bow plus State Man, Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead clashing for the first time in the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle. This quartet have won 33 of their 39 races and are all established as being among the sport’s A Listers. 

Finding a bet is not so easy. The 5-2 on offer about Lossiemouth upstaging her stablemate, State Man, was half-tempting, and Law Ella looks a solid proposition in the 1.35, but I’ll just be an interested observer. 

12.40 Haydock: General Medrano £2 win 

1.15 Haydock: Josh The Boss £1 win and £1.50 each-way at 15-2 with William Hill

2.05 Ascot: Inis Oirr £1 win and £1 each-way at 6-1 with William Hill

2.30 Haydock: Twig £2 win and £2 each-way at 50-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power 

2.30 Haydock: One Big Bang £1 each-way at 8-1 with William Hill

3.05 Haydock: Ahoy Senor £3 win at a general 6-1 

38p Each-Way Super Yankee plus 12p each-way accumulator  

12.40 Haydock: General Medrano 

1.15 Haydock: Josh The Boss 

2.05 Ascot: Inis Oirr 

2.30 Haydock: Twig 

3.05 Haydock: Ahoy Senor