Road To Cheltenham: Jonbon leader of the pack without sparkling

Last week, this column had an in-depth look at the staying chasers – the existing hierarchy and the likely disruptors already coming through from last season’s novice ranks. This week, the two-mile chasers get the same treatment.

This division reached a definitive conclusion at least on the track last season, playing out to the theme tune Jonbon And The Rest as he thumped all comers in the Celebration Chase. Yet the end-of-term Anglo-Irish classifications begged to differ, crowning the Sandown vanquished El Fabiolo as the official handicappers’ top-rated two-miler.

This term’s opening bars have since chimed with the visuals guys rather than the number-crunchers, even if the former’s frontman merely went through the motions in the Shloer. Meanwhile, The Rest’s contribution to date has ranged from utterly abject to mildly encouraging – those whom we’ve seen, at least.

And so it was that Jonbon returned at Cheltenham last Friday, weighing exactly the same as 12 months earlier according to trainer Nicky Henderson, but with a performance that wasn’t as strong. Dictating matters at a steady pace, he jumped with push-button responsiveness – shortening into the sixth and soaring over the last when asked. Edwardstone and more particularly Boothill briefly threatened in the straight, but the winner was pulling away again at the line.

There were nine-and-a-half lengths between Jonbon and Edwardstone in the 2023 Shloer, as opposed to merely two and a quarter here – a fairly accurate measure of the different calibre of his successive seasonal debuts. However, with this race explicitly viewed by the Seven Barrows team as a stepping-stone to the Tingle Creek, that Grade One at Sandown in three weeks’ time will be a truer measure of where Jonbon is at.

His potential rivals in that endeavour do not include El Fabiolo, whose paper dominance relies primarily on his eight-and-a-half-length defeat of the mare Dinoblue in February’s Dublin Chase. That’s because, as discussed in last week’s Road To Cheltenham show, he’s had a significant enough training setback for the leader of the Closutton Order to utter that he “might not come out until Christmas”.

Elsewhere in his sportinglife.com stable tour Willie Mullins also acknowledged: “We thought El Fabiolo was a Champion Chase type but his jumping let him down at Cheltenham and it was the same at Sandown. Maybe he wants a longer trip to have more time over his fences rather than going that pace, if he’s not comfortable. There’s every chance he could go out in trip.”

There can be a difference between winning a race – with its specific factors of pace, trip, track, ground and calibre of opposition – and producing a big number in victory by dint of the winning margin. Of course, the exceptional – Kauto Star, Frankel – can do both simultaneously.

What I’m saying is I don’t buy the idea that defeating a positively ridden, first-time cheekpieced Conflated, thriving Ryanair winner Protektorat and (distantly) Envoi Allen in a race that forced three inferior rivals – Pic D’Orhy, Minella Drama and Easy Game – to pull up in Aintree’s Melling Chase (admittedly over 2m4f) is lesser form in real terms than drubbing Dinoblue or, as El Fabiolo did in the Hilly Way, Fil D’Or. I can’t have the Celebration Chase victory as qualitatively subordinate at least to El Fabiolo’s Cork performance, either.

When seemingly handed the Queen Mother Champion Chase on a plate by Jonbon’s no-show last March (due to the well-advertised health troubles of his yard), El Fabiolo fluffed it by diving at the fifth – an odd juncture at which to make a mistake, given it’s sited uphill and comes as respite from the helter-skelter of the first four fences. Yet it was a blunder so significant that Paul Townend opted to pull him up.

In the Celebration, his relative lack of pace was seemingly exposed when, admittedly playing to Jonbon’s dictatorial tune, he laboured over the fourth and was taken to maximum revs over the Railway Fences, forcing a low-trajectory leap that brushed through the third of them. Indeed, Edwardstone was going better than El Fabiolo three out and ultimately paid the price for being capable of having half a go at the winner – that price being second place, by a short head.

In short, it seems El Fabiolo requires a very specific set-up over two miles if he’s not to fall victim to his jumping frailties. The overly strong pace self-defeatingly set by Edwardstone in the Queen Mum was perhaps sufficient to discombobulate him, even at the innocuous fifth, or else we must conclude he just lacks concentration. Either way, it’s proven to be a significant flaw.

Yet it’s Jonbon who’s discussed in these terms, the Racing Post even splashing with ‘Will the real Jonbon show up?’ last Friday. I don’t recognise this inconsistency. His supposedly flawed Cheltenham record is a red herring – defeats by Constitution Hill in the 2022 Supreme, when disadvantageously ridden to boot, and an on-song El Fabiolo in the following year’s Arkle hardly constitute inferior efforts.

His Clarence House defeat is the only real blip, when he’d been in a holding pattern for a week due to the original running at Ascot being abandoned seven days earlier – not ideal for a horse of Jonbon’s high-mettled temperament.

Plus, his annual record shows him not to be at peak capacity in January or February, when Henderson seeks to do just enough ahead of his chief target in March. Nonetheless, he would still have won ugly bar for a massive error four out and then being precipitately asked to recover ground at two out, rather than a fence later, by his relatively inexperienced and unfamiliar pilot.

So, for me and the ante-post betting, Jonbon is the clubhouse leader in this division. Interestingly, he was noticeably less edgy than usual in the paddock last Friday. Whilst this trait has often been held against him, hitherto it has always been his manner and has far from held him back. Perhaps he’s matured, or maybe it was reflective of him not being fully wound up for the Shloer. Whatever, in his case a lack of pre-race fizz is not necessarily a positive.

Boothill claimed second spot at Cheltenham, unleashed only after the last by new pilot Bryan Carver and thereby finishing ahead of Edwardstone for the first time in three attempts. He’d also had surgery to improve his breathing over the summer break, suggesting he might have found some improvement given he had been ridden to maximum effect when a picking-up-the-pieces fourth in the Celebration Chase in April.

Equally, the steady Shloer gallop might have flattered him and Edwardstone, whose winged chariot of time is a year further down the line, might have needed this reappearance run. Nonetheless, trainer Harry Fry was emboldened to declare the Tingle Creek as Boothill’s next target, however, rather than lesser assignments. His representative’s personal score against Jonbon reads 0-3.

Back in fourth in the Shloer was fellow Tingle Creek entry and last season’s Grand Annual winner Unexpected Party. Already this season he’d had a proper go in both the Old Roan on seasonal debut – seemingly well backed when yet again failing to stay 2m4f – and when pressing on too soon at Carlisle last time, only to be caught by Nells Son on the steep finish.

Here he was dropped out in hope of snatching something late, but the pace of the race didn’t work out that way. Oddly, given in literal terms it was better than either of those prior defeats, it earned him a pound’s drop in the weights. Every little helps come March, I guess.

Over in Ireland last Saturday, Found A Fifty is another to have got going early this term, and to hold a Tingle Creek option. Having begun with facile success at Down Royal last month – dictating a small field of inferior rivals – this second-season chaser took on more established performers in last Saturday’s Fortria Chase at Navan and won again. Yet he contrived to look unimpressive, despite all three of his main opponents underperforming.

The pace set by thriving Solness was unfalteringly robust, and Jack Kennedy sat off it until making easy headway on the winner after the fifth last. When Found A Fifty jumped into the lead two out, he looked set for an authoritative victory but instead idled, got in too close and adjusted right at the last, resulting in an unedifying scramble to the line. Kennedy later reported his mount had hung and jumped right throughout – the latter habit discernible throughout last season.

Although he was outgunned late on last December in the Drinmore when last trying two-and-a-half miles, that was hardly a fair fight on his second career start over fences against I Am Maximus and Found A Fifty again shaped here as though worth a try at that trip. That he was conceding 7lb and 10lb respectively to his closest pursuers also alleviates the visual impression somewhat. Perhaps right-handed Sandown will be a positive, but he’ll need to find plenty more improvement to trouble Jonbon.

Runner-up Solness – the opposite of flattered when previously a harrying third to front-running Saint Sam in the Clonmel Oil Chase, caught late for second by the far less involved Fil Dor – was inching closer at the line and is currently in the consistent form of his life.

The head-scratcher is the proximity of 200/1 shot Senecia in third, albeit she has a smattering of efforts to her name that should merely have put her in the next parish to these principals, as opposed to the next county. Perhaps first-time blinkers conjured something extraordinary, as she looked done with entering the straight only to rally for being switched. The other likely contributing factor is sheer, hard fitness, as she’s been on the go all summer long.

The other three – the most decorated in the field – flopped to varying degrees but were all making their seasonal debuts. Although the ground was suitably good, Banbridge was without the cheekpieces that enabled him to nut Captain Guinness right on the line in Punchestown’s Champion Chase in May, and he also raced alone towards the inside line, which may or may not have been relevant. He looked out of practice.

Despite being well in at the weights, the market expected and received little from Gentleman De Mee. He was struggling from the fifth last and blundered three fences later to record by far the worst completion of his entire career over fences. At this stage, it’s perhaps fairest to conclude he badly needed his first run back; the brisk pace against would have starkly exposing 

Captain Guinness – who was chasing a hat-trick of Fortria Chase wins – gets a free pass, albeit one with worries attached, as once again the attending vet reported him to be “clinically abnormal” post-race after Darragh O’Keeffe retired him from the race three out. A third incidence of atrial fibrillation is suspected by trainer Henry de Bromhead, who understandably declared in his Racing Post stable tour earlier this week that “all plans are on hold at the moment”. Although he’s bounced back from this ailment before – as recently as last February – it’s not guaranteed.

This nine-year-old didn’t need to improve to win a depleted Champion Chase in March – an unlikely venue for the first Grade One success of his career. His stamina would have been tested to the limit in a strongly run, if inferior, edition of the race but he had enough to repel the patiently ridden Gentleman De Mee – a change of tactics – by a length and a half, despite wandering right.

Back in 2023, he had been no match for Energumene – beaten ten lengths by that rival, who was successfully defending the crown he’d first seized 12 months earlier. That horse, who came to be the dominant force in this division subsequent to his compelling defeat by the much-missed Shishkin in the 2022 Clarence House, missed last season due to a hind leg injury but the vibes for this term are unremittingly positive.

“I’m delighted with Energumene,” Mullins stated in his sportinglife.com stable tour, which we discussed in last week’s show. “He’s hitting all his targets and came in with the rest of the horses and we haven’t had one setback with him.”

Cork’s Grade Two Hilly Way in three weeks’ time – a race he won in 2021 and 2022 – has been earmarked for his possible return. The question is how much ability he retains, rising eleven, after such a setback, albeit no horse has matched his peak performances in this division in his absence.

As discussed in last week’s show, his younger stablemate Gaelic Warrior is perhaps the coming force, however, after his energising success over that course and distance last March.

Having long threatened a performance of that calibre, he delivered it in circumstances I felt would not quite suit – on Cheltenham’s ever-turning Old Course, which had hosted his defeats in both the Fred Winter and Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdles, in which he’d forfeited ground when characteristically jumping right.

Come the Arkle, he adjusted right to a greater or lesser extent at most fences but it didn’t interrupt his rhythm as he bossed the field, tanking along tracking the sound pace set by Matata – to whom we’ll shortly return – and storming clear of Found A Fifty when shaken up in the lead from the last. If anything, unexpectedly it was the runner-up’s right-hand adjustments that were the more marked.

Back in third, smaller-scale Il Etait Temps either found jumping out of the heavy ground over these fences too much of an effort, or else again underlined his lack of aptitude for Cheltenham’s undulations, or both. His jumping lacked fluency even prior to a sizeable blunder at the fourth last, knocking him back to third last, so he did well to run into the bronze medal at the business end – albeit his stamina would have come into play.

Yet less than two months later, Gaelic Warrior was scalped by his stablemate. Il Etait Temps had got a roll on by then, having humbled the Turners Novices’ Chase 1-2 Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny when upped to 2m4f in the Manifesto at Aintree (that pair finishing t’other way around there compared with Cheltenham).

When Il Etait Temps faced his Arkle conqueror back over two miles for the Barberstown Castle Novice Chase at Punchestown, he was given the superior tactical ride. Paul Townend allowed the race to develop into a sprint from the second last rather than asserting further out to place greater emphasis on stamina. Given his mount stays three miles, that left Gaelic Warrior vulnerable to his stablemate’s superior turn of foot particularly on drying ground.

Il Etait Temps had been earmarked by Mullins to return to action in Sunday’s John Durkan, alongside stablemates Galopin Des Champs, Fact To File, Grangeclare West, Minella Cocooner and possibly, but not definitely, Blue Lord (who might yet accompany Energumene to the Hilly Way instead). However, it has emerged more recently that Il Etait Temps has an infection in his knee and will miss that initial target.

Returning to the backwash of the Arkle, we’ve seen a number of the also-rans step up their efforts already this season. Matata – who twice caused chaos with his erratic behaviour in novice chases last season, at the start in Aintree’s Maghull and at the first in Lingfield’s Lightning – has been out twice already.

Most recently at Cheltenham last Sunday, he gained revenge on a sans-cheekpieces Calico for his defeat there in October. However, despite dominating unharried in front from the second, he would surely have been caught had Gunsight Ridge – in receipt of 11lb – not fallen at the last when closing inexorably.

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is naturally optimistic that Matata can step up in trip – a move I can’t see myself – but will restrict this left-jumping free-goer to left-handed tracks. Returning from a 584-day absence and representing Fergal O’Brien for the first time, distant runner-up Third Time Lucki shaped as though retaining plenty of ability before a lack of race-fitness told.

Like Matata, recent Haldon Gold Cup winner JPR One has upgraded his form a little this season, repelling a strong late finish from Djelo - who was previously a well-held third in last term’s Turners and had been switched to patient tactics at Exeter.

JPR One was also a bit-part Arkle player, mildly inconvenienced by the fall of Master Chewy two out but essentially unable to get involved despite travelling well for much of the way. I had my suspicions about his finishing effort last season and they haven’t gone away.

Master Chewy had actually jumped a lot better than I’d expected in the Arkle until the point of coming down, as he tended to be guessy as he was learning his trade in the first half of his novice season. He went on to run a career-best stormer in the Maghull at Aintree in April (albeit perhaps the only rival not affected at the start by Matata), edged out by Find A Fifty on the line after an epic duel from the last where he’d even scored the better leap.

Earlier this month, he made a promising return at Ascot and is poised on a feasible mark for top-flight handicaps. However, Team Twiston-Davies – never knowingly underbold – has him entered in the Grade One Tingle Creek.

Former Triumph Hurdle winner Quilixios holds the same engagement following his pillar-to-post defeat of the inexperienced Marine Nationale at Naas earlier this month. He jumped well for O’Keeffe, albeit granted an unhassled solo up front, and drew seven-and-a-half lengths clear to record a distinctly improved performance. With Captain Guinness currently in the sanitorium, he could now adopt his campaign plan for de Bromhead this winter.

He can be forgiven for finishing only eighth in the Arkle, as usual rider Rachael Blackmore – currently sidelined with injury – misjudged the start, wrongly anticipating that her opponents were approaching the tapes too quickly for the starter to let them go and getting left out of her ground on an intended front-runner as a result. Although she recovered their pitch as far as mid-division, her mount was done with by three out.

As for Marine Nationale, it’s a marked understatement to observe that things haven’t gone to plan since his impressive success in the 2023 Supreme. Although he made a fluent debut over fences at Leppardstown in December (wearing a first-time tongue-tie following summer wind surgery), he was humbled behind Il Etait Temps in the Irish Arkle prior to being counted out of the Cheltenham version with a suspensory strain.

At Naas, his slow and scrappy jumping betrayed his lack of experience and a final error at the second last seemed to expose his lack of race-fitness. His next start over fences could be critical. It would be no surprise to see him entered in the Champion Hurdle this season, even if that is clearly no soft option.