Dave Nevison tips: Supply demands attention

Sageburg County may well be the outsider of this field, but he will not need to improve too much from his first run to figure. 

He was 5 ½ lengths behind Nocte Volatus on his reappearance but he is 5lb better off with that rival, plus it looked like the run would bring him on.  

Sageburg County ran well at this track over fences last season and should get a race run to suit him as there are several pacesetters in the field. He should be able to sit just behind the pace. 

In addition, Warren Greatrex has had three winners from his past ten runners. 

Afadil is another bigger-priced runner who may be worth an each-way punt in a competitive handicap.  

After an indifferent start to last season, he hit winning form off a mark of 124 and then went on to string a sequence of good efforts in some of the season’s most competitive handicaps off a rating of 130. 

He has been dropped down to 125 - just 1lb higher than his latest win - and if he is ready to roll after two warm-up runs then he could easily figure. Freddie Gingell usually rides and clearly gets on very well with the five-year-old.  

Law Of Supply won an Irish point-to-point before he joined Kim Bailey and marked time in a bumper and three times over hurdles before he was introduced to fences this season, which looks likely to be his forte.  

He jumped well at Worcester after an early mistake and was substantial value for his 3½-length success.  

The handicapper has raised him by 10lb but his initial chase mark, which was based on his exploits over hurdles, looks lenient. 

Three miles on a testing track such as Ascot should suit him perfectly.