Back or Lay? Your essential guide to the Betfair Chase

The twentieth edition of the Betfair Chase offers something different with challengers from England, Ireland, Scotland and France.

It seems like only yesterday when Kingscliff won the inaugural edition from Beef Or Salmon, with the odds-on Kicking King back in third.

Overall, the first Grade One contest of the British season has been a punter-friendly race.

Seven favourites, or joint-favourites, have obliged, while only one winner, Snoopy Loopy has won at a double-figure price. 

He scored at 33-1 in 2008 but traded at 209-1 in-running with the sponsors after Kauto Star’s departure two out had seemingly left the race at the mercy of Tamarinbleu. That pair traded at 1.11 and 1.15 in an eventful renewal that you can watch above.

Kauto Star won four other editions of a race that has quickly made a habit of yielding repeat winners. Cue Card (three wins), Bristol De Mai (three) and Silviniaco Conti (two) have been other multiple winners.

Course specialist Royale Pagaille seeks to go back-to-back on this occasion.

The guide below offers reasons why you should consider back/laying each contender, plus includes the biggest price that each horse has traded in-running on Betfair when winning. This reveals that

Capodanno

,

Hewick

,

The Real Whacker

and

Ahoy Senor

have shown the ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The others, less so. 

Biggest price traded on Betfair when winning: 120. Betfair odds: 4-1. 

Back: The two-time Grade One winner is officially the highest-rated runner (169) in the line-up and his stamina is assured, plus he’s versatile regards the ground. Usually needs his comeback run but ran a cracker in his return this term when third under a big weight in the Old Roan Chase last month, when Derek Fox’s considerate handling caught the eye of the stewards (and plenty of punters). Has reserved his best efforts for Aintree but Haydock, also flat and left-handed, is not dissimilar. And, whisper it quietly, his jumping seems more assured, with the RaceiQ data revealing he’s been best in that department in his past two races. 

Lay: Four wins from 19 starts over fences is a poor return for a horse blessed with so much ability. He went through last season without getting his head in front and the campaign before that managed a solitary success. Nine previous runs in Grade One races over fences have yielded one victory (at his beloved Aintree). Fence repairers scrubbed him off their Christmas card list long ago. 

Verdict: Looks to have plenty going for him. 

Biggest price win: 7.6. Betfair odds: 9-1. 

Back: Superb jumper who has completed in all his 21 runs over hurdles/fences, winning or being placed in 18 of them. The three-time Grade One winner impressed when winning on his only previous visit here, at this meeting three years ago, and was an emphatic winner of the King George in 2022. Has run numerous fine races in defeat since then. Seeks to go one better than last year, and when runner-up on his return in the Charlie Hall Chase. He’s the sole representative of Paul Nicholls, who is seeking a seventh success in the race, and will have the services of champion jockey Harry Cobden. There has been talk of him being equipped with headgear, which could help him get back to his very best. 

Lay: Rising ten, he’s given the impression that his powers are on the wane, reflected by his official rating slipping 7lb since his last win in the King George almost two years ago. He was again below his best when failing to peg back The Real Whacker in the Charlie Hall last time, and it was a similar story in this race 12 months ago when he couldn’t get to grips with Royale Pagaille. Nicholls admitted he expected him to win last time – he’d been away for a racecourse gallop and was considered plenty fit enough – and after the race the word “blinkers” crept into the conversation. But he doesn’t race lazily and his jumping is sharp, so he’s not an obvious candidate to improve for them. The wet weather forecast on Saturday would be a negative and Nicholls’s fine overall record in the race masks the fact he has not struck in it since 2014, with Clan Des Obeaux, Silviniaco Conti and Frodon all being beaten twice in it since that time, in addition to Bravemansgame fluffing his lines 12 months ago. 

Verdict: Could again be vulnerable where it matters most. 

Biggest price win: 570. Betfair odds: 8-1. 

Back: This is a race that champion trainer Willie Mullins routinely swerves and it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Capodanno was supplemented on Monday. That cost connections £7,200, so it seems safe to assume the eight-year-old will be fairly straight for his reappearance. He’s been relatively lightly raced since his Grade One triumph over fences at Punchestown in 2022, with his victory in last season’s Cotwold Chase – when he had The Real Whacker, Ahoy Senor and Royal Pagaille behind – a reminder of what he is capable of. He followed that with a creditable fourth in the Ryanair Chase, and we can excuse his subsequent below-par runs, in the Grand National and Punchestown. Stays well and seems to act on any ground. 

Lay: This race did not seem to be on his schedule until Corbett’s Cross, in the same ownership, was ruled out. He needed his return run last season, when also let down by his jumping. The fences can get in his way, with the RaceiQ metrics revealing that he’s not the type to take lengths off his rivals in the air. The other unknown is whether a second heavy defeat in the Grand National has left any kind of mark 

Verdict: Will have to keep errors to a minimum to figure. 

Biggest price win: 32. Betfair odds: 16-1. 

Back: Smart French performer who showed British racegoers what he is capable of when a fluent winner of the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham last year. Later in the year, he landed a Grade Two Chase at Auteuil, showing his versatility. Jumps soundly and stays well. 

Lay: He’s had his limitation exposed in his native country and would be some way down the pecking order when it comes to France’s top staying chasers. Was only a one-paced fifth in a Grade Three event at Auteuil last time and this looks an ambitious raid. 

Verdict: Adds international spice but surprise if he plunders prize 

Biggest price win: 10. Betfair odds: 7-4. 

Back: He’s won eight of his 13 races and developed into one of last season’s top novice chasers, winning in impressive style at this meeting en route to landing the Turners Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham at the main expense of Ginny’s Destiny and Djelo. There is almost certainly more to come, plus he is completely unexposed over 3m and further. He was a commanding winner over 3m at Warwick in January, when strong at the finish. Has been beaten first time out in the past two seasons but this race has been on his agenda for some time and his stable has been in great form. Second-season chasers have fine record in the race, with seven-year-olds, like him, landing four of the past six renewals. 

Lay: He’s a best-priced 15-8 but of the ten entries, he’s officially rated only the seventh highest, so he’s clearly got to up his game. And Ginny’s Destiny, the horse he had a couple of good tussles with last season, failed to make an impact in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last Saturday. Grey Dawning also disappointed at Aintree on his final start last season, albeit that was maybe one race too many for the campaign. Those comeback defeats in the past two seasons are a niggle, especially as Skelton had been keen to get a run into him before this assignment. However, good going meant he missed the Charlie Hall Chase plus another race at Carlisle 24 hours later. 

Verdict: Looks a skinny price to beat top-class opposition on his return. 

Biggest price win: 550. Betfair odds: 7-1. 

Back: He’s a tough, top-class stayer who has continued to run well after his dramatic success in the King George last season, when he looked in trouble most of the way. The application of blinkers in his past four races seems to have made him even more potent. His close third behind Fastorslow and Galopin Des Champs in the Punchestown Gold Cup, in May looks the best piece of form on offer among this field in the past year, and he ran another cracker when touched off by Envoi Allen in the Champion Chase at Down Royal last time, when Gerri Colombe was a distant third. All about stamina these days, this test should play to his strengths. He’s not the biggest but still has a leap in him, gaining 8.72 lengths with his jumping last time, according to RaceiQ. If the snow and rain stays away, then so much the better, but he copes well enough with good to soft going. Gavin Sheehan, successful on him in the King George, has been pencilled in to belatedly resume the partnership. 

Lay: Having had 39 races, he has absolutely no secrets and he will have had just three weeks to recover from his exertions at Down Royal, where he and the winner put in big shifts. The biggest worry would be the snow/rain forecast to hit Haydock later this week because he’s clearly well served by decent ground. He has been a non-runner four times on account of soft going, making him a risky ante-post proposition.  

Verdict: Solid form claims but the weather forecast will be a worry for his supporters. 

Biggest price win: 4. Betfair odds: 40-1. 

Back: Probably ran as well as he has ever done when scooping the Old Roan at Aintree last time, when he had Ahoy Senor about two lengths behind in third. Has been placed in Grade One company in the past and perhaps has some untapped potential moving up in distance (has the same sire as Grey Dawning). Has won on a range of ground. 

Lay: Has a stack to find on these terms. For instance, he is 20lb worse off with Ahoy Senor compared to when they met at Aintree. The trip is also a big question mark, while his trainer has not a winner since November 1 (40 runners since that time). Throw in the fact that Minella Drama can flash his tail and look awkward, and it’s easy enough to reject him. 

Verdict: Easy enough to look elsewhere. 

Biggest price win: 15.5. Betfair odds: 9-2. 

Back: This course specialist has won four of his five races at Haydock, with his only defeat when runner-up in the 2021 Betfair Chase, when he suffered a leg wound. He went one better in last year’s edition of the race, when outstaying Bravemansgame. Lacks a recent run, but that was the case 12 months ago, so that is not a concern. The wet weather forecast for later in the week will delight his connections – he seems well served by soft ground or worse – and this is something of a Cup final for him, with other tracks seemingly not serving him so well. 

Lay: It’s doubtful any of his three rivals gave their true running against him last year, and this looks a deeper edition. We also saw him just once afterwards, when he fell (when beaten) in the Cotswold Chase won by Capodanno. The prospect of softer ground also means that his lack of a recent run means his fitness is likely to be fully tested. Can still make the odd error (he’s been a faller in two of his past three races) and the only horses aged ten or older to land this have been Snoopy Loopy (got lucky), Kauto Star and Cue Card. 

Verdict: He’s always a tough nut to crack around Haydock but younger rivals may have his measure 

Biggest price win: 150. Betfair odds: 12-1. 

Back: He was a top novice the season before last, with the highlight being his defeat of Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory. Didn’t build on that last season but his yard was badly out of sorts, so it may be an idea to put a line through his campaign (although his second in the Cotswold Chase measures up). His trainer’s horses have been in much better form this term after a move of premises, and The Real Whacker has been among them, making all in the Charlie Hall Chase last time. A bold jumper who on occasions has looked like he could gallop all day, there could still be more to come. 

Lay: You need to have a generous nature to forgive him all of his efforts last term, when he simply looked a bit tricky at times and led to him being equipped with a visor in the spring. Has made the odd error and unseated his rider on his return at Listowel, with Brian Hughes observing he was a little careful early on at Wetherby last time. That Charlie Hall form also has holes in it, with the proximity of the third and fourth-placed horses raising a question mark. The assessor certainly did not get carried away and, on official ratings, he’s got to find another chunk of improvement to find. 

Verdict: Impressed at Wetherby but this looks a deeper race. 

Biggest price win: 5.4. Betfair odds: 16-1. 

Back: Likeable mare who is a sister of Inothewayurthinkin, who was successful at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals last season. Limerick Lace also scored at Cheltenham, taking the Mares’ Chase at the main expense of the smart Dinoblue. She was well fancied for the Grand National given her progressive profile, and untapped potential over staying trips, but that proved a bridge too far. There’s no reason to believe she will not resume her progress this term for a yard that does well with its runners in Britain. 

Lay: Ante-post punters should note she’s one of five JP McManus-owned horses in the John Durkan on Sunday. And the fact that McManus has supplemented Capodanno for this race, suggests she could be staying on home soil. If she does venture over, then this will be a tough first Grade One assignment for her. Has shown she stays 3m well enough, but this trip would demand a bigger breath. Her best form has been over shorter. 

Verdict: Will need a personal best if she’s to upstage several of these 

Everything looks in place for Ahoy Senor to run a huge race. The sponsors make him 4-1, but there is plenty of 5-1 available elsewhere. That will do for me. Hewick is as big as 10-1, which is tempting, but he’s a hard horse to back ante-post given the wet weather that is forecast.