How To Bet £20 on Saturday: Spear can hit the Lockinge target at 25-1

A record-equalling 16 runners in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday tells you plenty about this year’s mile division.

With Ribchester, Churchill, Winter, Roly Poly, Persuasive and essentially Barney Roy having departed the scene - plus 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior heading for longer trips - it is a category that is up for grabs.

I’m going to roll the dice with a 25-1 chance in the big race and have three other fancies spread between Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk.

1.50 Newbury - Eqtidaar at 100-30 with Sky Bet:

There was plenty to like about the way Eqtidaar shaped on his return at Ascot when chasing home Invincible Army in the Pavilion Stakes at Ascot.

Sir Michael Stoute’s handsome colt almost touched Evens in-running on Betfair when leading inside the final furlong but the smart winner, an extremely solid yardstick, pulled out more in the closing stages to win in a slick time.

Plenty of Stoute’s runners have been shaping as if in need of their first outing of the year and given Eqtidaar has had only three starts more improvement looks on the cards.

He will be on a quicker surface than at Ascot but encouragingly his classy half-brother Massaat, runner-up in the Dewhurst and 2,000 Guineas, was versatile regards ground.

3.15 Newmarket - Yafta each-way at 13-2 with Betfair, Sky Bet and Paddy Power (four places):

The speedily-bred Yafta signed off last season with wins at Bath and Chelmsford, and raised his game further on his return at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, when beating all bar the well-fancied Tribal Request over course and distance.

That form is strong, with the winner looking one to follow and the next three home all having something to recommend them.

Yafta has been pushed up 4lb but that looks fair enough and his forward style of racing means he will not be a hostage to fortune. I’m surprised the grey is not clear favourite and will be backing him to beat Bath winner Tricksy Spirit.

I can see plenty of the leading Lockinge contenders ending the season over further (like Rhododendron and Addeybb) or dropping back to shorter (such as Limato and Librisa Breeze).

Beat The Bank’s only blips have been at Ascot and he warrants a saver at 9-1 - don’t forget he went off only 4-1 for the QEII in October - but the 25-1 on offer about Lightning Spear makes even more appeal.

He’s been placed in four Group One contests without managing to win one and, now six, perhaps his window has passed but this is a division up for grabs.

Unlike several of his rivals he’s an out-and-out miler and I also like the angle that he’s been off more than five months because his record fresh (on debut or after a break of at least 182 days) reads 11132. The third was when a keeping-on third (given too much to do) to Tepin in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and the second when beating all bar Ribchester in this race last year.

Oisin Murphy will not be short of confidence, either, after partnering Roaring Lion to an emphatic Dante success for Lightning Spear’s owners on Thursday.

4.30 Thirsk - Magical Effect at 8-1 with Bet365:

Backing a horse who has been a beaten favourite in five of his past six starts carries a wealth warning but Magical Effect warrants another chance.

The excuses are beginning to tot up but things simply did not pan out for the hold-up performer at Ripon last time because he raced wide and the leaders did not come back.

Once it became clear he could not win, regular rider James Sullivan did not subject him to a hardrace.

The upside is that he has been eased 2lb and he is now lower in the ratings than for any of his previous defeats in the past nine months.

Moreover, he enjoys the demands of this track, having finished 1322 on his previous visits.

Andy Stephens' How To Bet Your £20 on Saturday:

OPTION ONE:

1.50 Newbury: £4 win on Eqtidaar at 100-30 with Sky Bet.

3.15 Newmarket: £3 win and £1 each-way on Yafta at 13-2 with Betfair, Sky Bet and Paddy Power (four places)

3.40 Newbury: Lightning Spear £3 each-way at 25-1 BetVictor, Betfair and Paddy Power

3.40 Newbury: £2 win on Beat The Bank at 10-1 with Ladbrokes

4.30 Thirsk: Magical Effect £3 win

OPTION TWO:

60p Each-Way Lucky Fifteen and £1 each-way fourfold on

1.50 Newbury: Eqtidaar

3.15 Newmarket: Yafta

3.40 Newbury: Lightning Spear (take 25-1)

4.30 Thirsk: Magical Effect