Andy Stephens advised backing Warwick winner Royal Margaux at 25-1 last Saturday, having hit the target with such as Bashful (10-1) and Pereceval Legallois (15-2) the previous week. He suggests a couple of possible ways to again stay ahead of the bookmakers
Dans Le Vent, left, can strike at chunky odds (focusonracing.com)
There are Graded races at all four Jump meetings on Saturday and I doubt the opening 0-125 staying handicap hurdle at Ascot (1.15) will get much attention. However, it may just feature the best bet of the day in Dans Le Vent, who has been given some eye-catchingly sympathetic rides this season since returning from an extended spell on the sidelines.
The 12-year-old is now well into the veteran stage of his career but don’t let that put you off backing him at 20-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power. The old boy, trained by the in-form Evan Williams (has already matched his best tally of winners in February in the past decade) and always ridden by his daughter, Isabel, has shaped as if retaining plenty of ability and has tumbled to a lenient mark.
He was not disgraced in good company at Windsor last time when having no chance after being anchored in rear in a slow-run race. It had been a similar story over an inadequate trip at Haydock in late November, but in between he showed his fire had not been extinguished when a close third – beaten a length - at Chepstow over Christmas. The progressive winner was landing his fifth win from his past nine completed starts, while the runner-up had previously run well at Cheltenham.
Dans Le Vent is 19lb lower in the ratings than when running in the Coral Cup three years ago and, given he exited at the first at Aintree next time, has effectively had just four subsequent runs over hurdles – one of them when clearly rusty after his absence. The assessor seems to have gone out of his way to give him a chance and consequently he can now also run in the lowest-grade handicap that he’s ever contested.
Williams Jr habitually holds him up and such tactics can inevitably be detrimental on occasions, but this contest should be run to suit with front-running Thank You Ma’am and several and prominent racers among the opposition.
My other main fancies on the Ascot card are Terresita, who is quoted at 13-2 for the Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (3.00), and Peaky Boy, who looks underestimated at 8-1 in the Ebony Horse Club Reynoldstown Novices' Chase (1.50).
Terrific Terresita
Terresita is a mare on the up and there was plenty to like about the way she surged clear of Hitman (since a good second in the Denman Chase) in the closing stages of a 2m 5f handicap here a month ago. She was quicker over the final two furlongs that day than Jonbon was when landing the Clarence House Chase, over half a mile less, later in the day. She’s proven over the longer trip and has more than earned her 6lb rise in the ratings.
Victtorino has a soft spot for Ascot and is the obvious danger, although he fluffed his lines when favourite for last year’s edition of the race and this looks a better renewal.
Many will fancy the Reynoldstown to be dominated by Jingko Blue and Lowry’s Bar, who had a good tussle at Windsor last time. The former prevailed, but it might have been a different story had Lowry’s Bar not blundered badly three out and he is 5lb better off for the rematch.
Peaky’s Boy, a former stablemate of Jingko Blue, may upstage the pair of them. The official ratings suggest he has got a bit to find on what will be his first start for Jonjo O’Neill but time may tell that he faced an unenviable task when trying to concede 9lb to the likeable Haiti Couleurs at Cheltenham last time. His jumping was polished – he got an 8.8 out of 10 on the RaceiQ Jump Index – and he’s open to plenty more improvement.
Don't cross Corbetts
The feature race on the card isthe Betfair Ascot Chase and it will be interesting to see which way Corbetts Cross travels in the betting. I fancy he is more versatile regards trip than many give him credit for – he was winning a Grade Two hurdle over 2m this time two years ago - with his performance level dictated by his wellbeing rather than trip. Emmet Mullins has been working backwards from the Cheltenham Gold Cup all season and I cannot believe he would be running him here unless he felt a confidence-boosting victory could be achieved.
Pic D’orhy has an enviable course record but the now ten-year-old was nowhere near his best when beating inferior rivals here in November, while L’Homme Presse is turning out quite quickly after his win on Festival Trials Day and seems better running left-handed (he jumped left when beaten by Pic D'orhy in this race last year).
I made a case for backing
Galia Des Liteaux for the Oddschecker
Trial Handicap Chase at Haydock (3.15) earlier in the week and am surprised she is still trading at double-figure odds.
She’s now 6lb lower in the ratings than when running well for a long way in last season’s Grand National and Royale Pagaille’s presence in the line-up means she is one of only five runners who will be running off their correct handicap marks.
This bulky mare will think she is running loose with Tristan Durrell’s additional 3lb claim meaning that she has only 10st 1lb to shoulder.
Val Dancer and Jubilee Express finished ahead of her in the Welsh National last time but she effectively meets that pair on 17lb better terms and I also think the demands of Haydock will suit her better than that pair.
Laura Morgan tells us more about Kepler's Law
Kepler’s Law makes sense
Elsewhere on the card, Nocte Volatus (2.05) and Kepler’s Law (3.50) have solid claims in their respective races.
Nocte Volatus was unable to peg back The Flier Begley at Market Rasen last time but this fluent jumper meets that rival on 4lb better terms in the Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Veterans' Handicap Chase
and I’m pretty sure this track will play more to his strengths. The frantic 40-second run around a bend to the first fence at Market Rasen seemed a bit of his shock to his system but that will not be an issue here, with the first two fences usually coming in half that time.
His penultimate effort at Ascot, when splitting Gemirande (subsequently won the December Gold Cup) and Terresita (good subsequent winner) is easily the best bit of recent form on offer. He’s only 3-1, but I’d have trading at much shorter, especially with promising amateur Toby McCain-Mitchell taking another 7lb off his back.
Kepler’s Law is the apple of Laura Morgan’s eye and this embryo chaser showed why when pummelling Barlovento by 30 lengths at Leicester last time, albeit he was getting 7lb.
The runner-up had previously split Ma Shantou (close third in the River Don next time) and Rubber Ball (two subsequent wins, including at Newbury), so there is substance to that form.
I cannot believe the extended 3m trip will be an issue for Kepler’s Law, as he looked like he could gallop all day at Leicester and was an easy winner of his sole point-to-point.
Incidentally, keep in mind the three long-distance hurdle races at Haydock on Saturday will be run over 146 yards further than advertised, with an extra hurdle also having to be negotiated because of track configurations.
Finally, at Wincanton, I fancy that Golden Ace, chalked up at 11-4, will be able to pick off front-running Burdett Road in the BetMGM Kingwell Hurdle (1.36).
This mare will be having her first run over 2m since fending off Brighterdaysahead at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
The form of that steadily-run race is almost misleading but there’s also little doubt that she has been betrayed by a lack of stamina in good races over 2m 4f this term, having travelled with typical zest. Her stable is also in much better nick than earlier in the campaign.
How To Bet £20 on Saturday:
OPTION ONE
1.15 Ascot: Dans Le Vent £3 win and £1.50 each-way at 20-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power
1.36 Wincanton: Golden Ace £1.50 win at a general 11-4
1.50 Ascot: Peaky Boy £2 win at 8-1 with William Hill
2.05 Haydock: Nocte Volatus £2.50 win at a general 3-1
3.00 Ascot: Terresita £3 win at 13/2 with Paddy Power 4 places
3.15 Haydock: Galia Des Liteaux £1.50 each-way at a general 10-1
3.50 Haydock: £2 win on Kepler’s Law
OPTION TWO
16p Win Super Heinz and 40p each-way accumulator
1.15 Ascot: Dans Le Vent
1.36 Wincanton: Golden Ace
1.50 Ascot: Peaky Boy
2.05 Haydock: Nocte Volatus
3.00 Ascot: Terresita
3.15 Haydock: Galia Des Liteaux
3.50 Haydock: Kepler’s Law
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