How To Bet £20 on Saturday: 33-1 chance worth risking

All the big guns have stood their ground for Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham and let’s hope there are no late cry-offs on account of the soft ground.

Up until today (Friday), there has been 86mm on rainfall at the track this month, including 6mm on Wednesday and 5mm on Thursday. A bit more (up to 5mm) is forecast today and on Saturday.

The latest Going Stick reading on Wednesday was 4.9, lower than anything at Cheltenham throughout 2025 (5.1 was lowest). In fact, the latest Going Stick figure was the lowest since the 3.9 logged for 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup Day.

There are three odds-on favourites on the card – Sir Gino, Grey Dawning and Impose Toi – and they have all shown themselves to be at home in the mud. In addition, they arrive on the back of taking victories plus boast previous impressive performances at Cheltenham.

They are going to take plenty of stopping but before backing the treble at about 11-4 keep in mind that between them they will have to negotiate more than eight miles, negotiate 41 obstacles and 11 rivals (several receiving weight) over the space of about 17 minutes.

One high-profile horse I’d have reservations about on the prevailing ground is The New Lion.

He was a non-runner for his first three intended races on account of soft/heavy ground and Timeform have assessed him as having never run on ground worse than good to soft. Against that, we have no evidence he will not handle slower conditions and he has several siblings who are proven in the mud.

Those after something at much chunkier odds should consider Escaria Ten, chalked up at 33-1 for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (1.50) and Secret Des Dieux, quoted at 16-1 for the opening Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase (12.05). 

Escaria Tenis unlikely to figure on many shortlists given that he is a 12-year-old and has been pulled up in his two races at Cheltenham, but he remains relatively lightly raced for his age and those non-completions came on the Old Course over conventional fences. 

He's much more at home on the Cross-Country course these days and is now 13lb lower than when making such a bold bid at the Festival in March. He led between the final two obstacles that day but had been given an aggressive ride and faded out of contention. 

On his previous start on this track, he had been a fine fourth to Stumptown (beaten under five lengths) from a mark 10lb lower than he will race off on Saturday. 

It could be that Escaria Ten is on the downgrade, but he showed loads of zest  on his return here in October before getting tired and 2m 4f was never going to suit him next time, in what was a substitute race for the abandoned Cross Country contest at the November Meeting. 

In addition, this will be his second run since having first-time wind surgery in late October, which most judges will tell you is when maximum benefit is derived. 

Secret Des Dieuxlooks underestimated in the market given he finished a close fourth to Barlovento on quick ground at Kempton last time and gets a 3lb pull with that rival, who is among the market leaders. He would have finished even closer behind him, too, but for their contrasting leaps at the second last. 

The James Owen-trained six-year-old had previously been a fine third behind Mambonumberfive and Mighty Bandit at Newbury, with Bluey and Captain Bellamy behind. That quartet have all franked the form. 

Secret Des Dieux has hinted he will stay beyond 2m 4f, so this stiffer test could unlock more improvement. He coped with testing ground at Uttoxeter earlier in his career. 

My two other bets on the card will be Jagwar, in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (1.15), and Heads Up in the closing AIS Novices' Hurdle (4.10). 

Jagwarwas an impressive winner at the meeting last year before following up at the Festival, and showed his new mark was not beyond him on his return last month when third in the December Gold Cup. His effort needs marking up as he raced in rear in a steadily-run race where it paid to be handy. 

He looks a horse capable of making an impact in graded company over 3m down the line 

Heads Up was runner-up in the Champion Bumper last season and has made a highly encouraging start over hurdles; winning easily at Listowel, at the main expense of a subsequent Grade Three winner, before chasing home No Drama This End here in November. The winner followed up at Sandown before taking the Challow. 

Front-running Heads Up was no match for Drama This End in the closing stages but he was asked to set a perhaps overly strong pace on a wet afternoon when the ground ended up bordering on heavy.

His jockey also stuck to the inside, which is rarely the place you want to be when the going is testing. Danny Mullins takes over on Saturday and has no other rides on the card. 

Act Of Innocence and Taurus Bay are preferred to him in the betting but the former must prove his stamina - his connections also have Old Park Star and are perhaps trying to manufacture him into a stayer – while the latter has looked most promising but has yet to achieve the level of form that Heads Up has managed. 

12.05: Secret Des Dieux £2.50 each-way at a general 16-1 

1.15: £3 win on Jagwar at 2-1 

1.50: £3 each-way on Escaria Ten at 33-1 with bet365 (five places). 

4.10: £5 win Heads Up at 4-1 

£1 double on Jagwar and Heads Up.