The last 5 winners of the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase have gone on to finish first or second at the Festival in March. BARLOVENTO would have been a more convincing winner at Kempton on Boxing Day but for fluffing the last so a 4 lb rise may not stop him with further progress likely. The prospect of a stronger pace now moving into a handicap could bring about improvement from Califet En Vol and he can fill the forecast spot ahead of Jordans Cross.
Tipsters
chart
Source: newspaper tipsters
selections
About The Selections
Andy Stephens
Secret Des Dieux The 18-1 on offer looks massive each-way as he was not far behind Barlovento last time, when keeping on, and the form of his penultimate run is rock solid
Dave Nevison
Barlovento A rating of 125 still looks manageable and, although this is a seriously competitive event, he looks capable of winning it.
Harry Allwood
Califet En Vol Has run well in defeat on his first two starts at this track and should appreciate the give underfoot. I expect connections will be disappointed if he does not end up better than a 137-rated chaser. Advised ante-post at 6-1.
TF
Smart Stats
3
Quebecois
2 Paul Nicholls's number of winners in past 10 runnings.
14/1
6
Barlovento
38% Sean Bowen's strike rate on chase favourites
5/1
7
Secret Des Dieux
24% James Owen's strike rate with chasers running between 19f and up to 3m
10/1
TF
Race Hints
Specific Pace Hint: A decent pace still shouldn’t detract from the chances of those who race on or near the front end such as Kdeux Saint Fray: The forecast decent pace still isn’t likely to sway the advantage towards those usually ridden further back such as is Barlovento.
Individual Price Hint: Jordans Cross traded at more than 10 times Betfair SP and 2 times Betfair SP when winning on 2 of its last 5 starts.